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The meeting of the Cook County Independent Revenue Forecast and Commission will now come to order. I will now call the roll. Chair, Commissioner Davila, Commissioner Merman, Commissioner Falen, chair, you have a quorum.

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Good evening, everyone. Welcome to our meeting of the Independent Revenue Forecasting Commission and my first is chair. It's nice to be here with all of you tonight.

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Before we begin tonight's agenda items, I wish to recognize the hard work and collect the efforts of everyone in this room, the Bureau of Finance and the Dynamic Commissioners. Thank you for everything you do.

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Today, we are going to discuss some potential recommendations of the IRFC, which will not be finalized until August.

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Additionally, we will provide quarterly updates, which include updates on our persistent ability.

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We are also going to go through some exploratory scenarios, assessing methods to grow existing revenues.

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I think this can be a useful thought exercise to understand and refine our modeling and to get a more comprehensive look.

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Foundies revenue picture.

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I look forward to this group's inside an input and finally we will also be diving into the county sales tax.

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So again, thank you to everyone for being here and we can get started with the meeting.

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The first item on the agenda is the approval of the minutes from the meeting of June 30, 26.

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Fair, we need a motion to approve the minutes to proceed.

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Is there a motion to approve the minutes?

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Yes.

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Is there a second?

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Okay.

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Okay, the motion to approve has been moved by Commissioner Feynland and second by Commissioner Miramon.

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All of those in favor signify by saying aye.

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Any opinion of the chair?

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Aye.

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All of those opposed to signify by saying aye.

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Any opinion of the chair?

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The A's have it and I'm sorry, and the meeting minutes will be found with the Cook County Secretary of the Board.

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The next item on the agenda is a presentation from the team covering quarterly updates.

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The county sales tax and the preliminary IRFC recommendations.

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Thank you, Angela.

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So I will have some updates this evening on some of our deliverables as they relate to the principles of the aisle.

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See here on your recommendations of this body, which we'll get into on the next slide.

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Regarding the impact of Boba, the open provisions on the health enterprise fund.

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We recently analyzed the past budget rough states.

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There wasn't a lot of information in there that would change any guidance as far as forecasting goes to the health fund.

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So you know, we'll be continuing to monitor any information that comes down to the state.

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Continuing to work partner with our friends at the hospital.

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One thing to note those at the state is continuing to fund health benefit for immigrant seniors, their budget, which we have built in.

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We'd be a reflective that in our June forecast.

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Our VISTA state of Billy.

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The county that is currently flying to your name is allocation.

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It's better to keep the offer reserved.

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It should have set up a couple of years ago.

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And then revenue growth options, which will dive into on the next couple of slides.

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So this year, the team, we conducted an analysis of county tax revenues, identifying reasons for.

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Smaller declining growth in some revenues.

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Understanding why they're stagnant.

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We shared some updates at the January and April meetings on our findings.

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But on the next batch of slides here, we'll walk through some exploratory scenarios.

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What modifications would look like to existing taxes in the county's budget.

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Okay, so as Angela noted, we'll be going through some of the county's revenue sources in this section.

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Exploring some scenarios.

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What different modifications.

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And yes, the major revenue impacts would potentially look like as well as providing some background into our methodologies to estimate these impacts.

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And so the first revenue here that we looked at is sales tax.

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Seeing what a potential modification would look like in the county's sales tax.

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So the county's current sales tax read is 1.75%.

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And so we have a scenario of here of what that would look like if it were to increase a quarter percent to two percent.

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So to estimate what the revenue impact would be from this modification.

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And we'll also be talking about the sales tax of it.

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And the presentation.

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But we use our current sales tax model, which is a regression model that is used to predict the sales tax base.

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We adjusted the tax rate to 2% affected January 127, which would be right now the earliest of the county would be able to implement that change per state.

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So this January one effective date would mean that the county would begin seeing an impact from the modification in April of 2027.

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Which accounts for the lag from when the state who administered the tax for us collects it and eventually disperses it to the county.

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A key assumption in this modification is no change in the purchasing behavior of consumers from this potential rate increase.

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So the projected revenue impact from this modification here is that we're estimating fiscal year 2027 would be approximately $141 million higher from the current projection of the prior forecast of the sales tax.

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But then in the impact would be about 220 to 230 million and 2028 and into the out years.

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So this full year impact of 201 million, it's about 14% higher than the forecast of projections for 2028 and to the fifth the out years.

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So the sales tax rate is going to go up.

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Maybe I think you might have gone up today.

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Right.

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Because it's.

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Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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It's going to go up.

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Do you have any projections about what.

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You know, that to lower your revenue if it pushes out sales.

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You have a projection of that.

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And then.

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You know, the projection of this would also perhaps be there's an interactive about that.

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So I just wonder.

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Do you have any idea what that would do.

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We haven't explored that yet.

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What's.

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Surrounding.

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If that were to increase how that would impact our pace and potential sales.

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So guess.

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Okay.

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Yeah.

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And then.

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I guess.

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So the 14% difference 40% increase in revenue.

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But it's essentially you're essentially assuming it's.

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Just linear is because it's 25% over 1.75 is.

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Yeah, I'm trying to do the math in my head.

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But that sounds about right.

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That's essentially what you're saying.

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Right.

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Okay.

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Yeah.

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Okay.

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So I think we have some discussions before we, you know, we would say that's optimistic.

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I assume that, you know, if I cause some drop off in sales.

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So it just seems like I should know that.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Correct.

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Yeah.

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This is no.

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That's the point.

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It's not that.

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Here.

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This is just.

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No change in.

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Well, it's the base.

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I've been sooner than here.

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Mm-hmm.

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Is there a way to look at past increases to.

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Confirm that or to sort of back that out.

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Yeah.

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We could certainly take a look at that.

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I'm sure we have data to be able to do that.

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I have very few actual instances that we could look at.

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So I mean, you could do an analysis, but I'm not sure how.

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Well, there's, there's one is the implementation and whether or not it rules out perfectly.

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But then you're also, when I'm looking at a handful of instances where we would.

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We would be directly impacted.

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So you're going to have a sample size that would be.

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Great.

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Yeah.

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You could make some assumptions.

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I think the issue is that right now in most of online sales are covered.

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Mm-hmm.

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So before when there would have been an increase, there would have been a bigger opportunity for avoidance.

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Because a lot of the goods were still being touched at the six and quarter percent.

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There was no.

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You've got pretty much everything being touched at the house.

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Right.

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So I'd say more of the reduction in consumption rather than any kind of deviation.

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I hope we have you are going to Wisconsin or North Carolina because that's pretty much tough.

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Back to David's point.

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Did you look at the RTS to mountain where they put with the estimate in terms of elasticity for their revenue increase?

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Um, I did not look at it.

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Personally, um, I think my coal may have.

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Unfortunately it's not here, but um.

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I think that might be a hell of a conversation to have.

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Because that would have been discussed.

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I would think of life in the state of legislature.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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They cover.

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Is that restricted to the county or it's a bigger area?

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It's bigger.

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It's a bigger area.

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Yeah.

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I guess one I just concerned because the rate is very high in July.

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We talked about the highest rate in the nation.

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And I'm just worried that there's a breaking point.

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That's why.

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So is it.

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Well, would it be a, like.

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What do you mean by breaking point?

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We already just people had effects people's consumption or houses taxable.

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You know, I mean, I'm really, I'm really doing hand waving here.

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But at some point people had to say, you know, this is ridiculous.

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It's going to make me effort to to go to a different county or do something to avoid the.

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The sales tax becomes really, you know, this goal when it's.

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Yeah, and I think, you know, I think that's worthwhile research and like what opportunities would there be.

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To go to another county to get a lower tax rate because I'm not sure with all these recent changes at the steel level.

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I think of a factor.

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That is anymore.

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I mean, it used to be like, you know, we need to be still out of the gas and say, we're at somewhere.

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But I'm not so sure that it's so I would just see an overall reduction in consumption.

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Yeah.

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Well, I don't know.

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I mean, I think the most kind of the most relevant point for policy is just to set, you know, give it some low upper bound that's a lower bound.

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I think you're really at the upper bound.

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Yeah.

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And what's a reasonable lower bound.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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And it might be a signal.

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Another way, it might not just be that like price goes up.

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They stop buying it or you look to buy somewhere else.

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But essentially your budget is to clean it at some point.

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So you don't buy something.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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And that way.

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It's not like this concept.

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We can think this about your constraint that gets hit at a certain point.

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So you don't end up going up that extra me or something.

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So I'm some level of reduced consumption associated with the increase in sales.

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That's possible.

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You could look at the.

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I've got it that with people spend their money on the consumer.

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Whatever.

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Because if it's services, they're more likely to drop off.

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Then it doesn't matter because they're not taxed.

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When I said, I don't know, I'm being flip and it's not going to affect your sales tax.

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Your sales tax revenue.

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If people reduce their consumption of services.

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But if they're concerned.

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If they're constrained forces them to reduce their consumption of goods.

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Then that's a different.

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equation.

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Yeah.

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I mean, it's helpful to know.

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I think we've we talked about this a little bit.

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It would be helpful to know really where your sales tax revenue is coming.

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But what are the what are the big drivers.

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My.

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As I see code perspective, if you will or.

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It's like sick code sick.

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Yeah, I don't know if.

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Yeah, I mean now you have data like you actually have data that level of.

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It's helpful of the entity.

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Right.

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And.

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Maybe you could do some analysis of that.

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To think about like where's the volatility in that.

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And I don't know how much you can fix.

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What kinds of things are selling is it is it like restaurants.

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Look, I always think of it as cars, but it's not cars.

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It's apparently because it's handled differently.

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Here. So, I don't know what really the components are. It's driving since that's where I've been in the account. It's pretty key then across all of the sick codes that we have.

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That's how we call an app to look at it. I'm pretty sure we have. I think we have an analysis in our rating. You can see presentations. It speaks directly to the industry.

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That our self reported regarding like the sales tax collection rate and the whole thing that we always say when we present that slide is that, you know, it's it's pretty.

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We've been across all of the different areas. There's no like.

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In like one particular component that is outweigh like the rest of what the nation see.

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I mean, it's good. That's it's diversified. That's probably something to say.

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Yeah. That's the arts and the side.

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I think the S side seek hold categorization and I'm sure you know this is not to be relied upon because it's arbitrary if they don't choose.

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It's supposed to be the top two things that are so it could be anything.

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But to do it's quite not that you have the data for like some big players. So just looking at them by not by the S I see code.

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But by their volume and then I think you're right. I think there's nothing that really dominates.

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But just to verify that that's the case and then you know you should judgment on what industry or what else I see come to what makes code or whatever they should fall into.

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And like it's more relying on that as I see code data is problematic.

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Yeah.

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I've ever caught talking about this. You've just like internally of like the last couple years.

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Like we kept that out of presentation for that reason.

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Yeah.

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It's like so much.

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Yeah, you don't want to make too many judgments from that.

241
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,000
It is self-reported.

242
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:08,000
Yeah.

243
00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:18,000
But we have we have started with having more data now to things like top 100.

244
00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:19,000
Yeah.

245
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:23,000
And you know starting to compile that.

246
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:29,000
That's something different from a high level.

247
00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:35,000
So yeah, we like we can continue to expand on that.

248
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,000
But obviously categorize it.

249
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:39,000
Different ways.

250
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,000
But it's beautiful.

251
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,000
And like obviously report that information publicly.

252
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:45,000
No.

253
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:46,000
Yeah.

254
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:54,000
Or internal purposes we could you look at say the top sellers.

255
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,000
In terms of.

256
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,000
Contributes to the sales.

257
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:12,000
Certainly.

258
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,000
Like the idea of having a balance.

259
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,000
Right.

260
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,000
And what could be potential.

261
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:18,000
Yeah.

262
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,000
In fact, our elasticity.

263
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,000
The reduction in consumption.

264
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:23,000
Of certain.

265
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,000
I think that makes a lot sense.

266
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,000
We're creating to our forecasts.

267
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,000
And make a judgment call about.

268
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:34,000
Well, we are incorporated into our estimates.

269
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:39,000
Using the kind of straight methodology forecast is our base.

270
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,000
Just to be a little bit more conservative.

271
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:51,000
So that's so the next revenue we put that is our property tax.

272
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,000
Let me.

273
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,000
Specifically house of.

274
00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,000
A lot of petitions.

275
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,000
The property back.

276
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,000
Would impact the allocation of that.

277
00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,000
That goes into the general fund.

278
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,000
So just some background.

279
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:12,000
Cook counties property tax revenue comes from.

280
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:14,000
A base tax.

281
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:19,000
Let me as well as from expiring tiff districts.

282
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:20,000
Expiring.

283
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,000
Excentive incentives as well as.

284
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,000
New property construction.

285
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,000
So the county's base property tax.

286
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:29,000
Levy is.

287
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,000
Excently 720 million.

288
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,000
That amount has not been adjusted.

289
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,000
Thin back to the 1990s.

290
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:39,000
And in addition to that.

291
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,000
Based property tax the total.

292
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,000
Levy for this clear 2026.

293
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,000
And included about a hundred million dollars.

294
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,000
And property tax is captured.

295
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:53,000
From these new properties.

296
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,000
The expiring tiff districts.

297
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:56,000
And.

298
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,000
Expiring incentives.

299
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,000
He motive from previous years.

300
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:06,000
So after this call like a gross levy is calculated.

301
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:11,000
Orations of that levy are allocated for the purposes covering.

302
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,000
That service obligations.

303
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,000
Allocations to the annuity and benefit funds.

304
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,000
Afro projects.

305
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,000
As well as the election funds.

306
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,000
A portion of the levy is also allocated.

307
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,000
Has been allocated each year to support.

308
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:32,000
Help the health enterprise funds for their operations.

309
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,000
And then the remaining amount is.

310
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,000
Is what's allocated into the general fund.

311
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,000
So in fiscal year 2026.

312
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:41,000
Approximately.

313
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,000
Approximately 120 million dollars was.

314
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:47,000
And property tax revenue is allocated.

315
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,000
And the general fund.

316
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,000
So one.

317
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,000
A scenario we explored is.

318
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,000
Adjusting the base levy.

319
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,000
That's 720 million.

320
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,000
Increasing the base to keep pace with inflation.

321
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:07,000
Starting in 2027 and into the out years.

322
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,000
We utilized.

323
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,000
Moody's baseline CPI forecast.

324
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:17,000
For the Chicago metropolitan statistical area.

325
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:21,000
While it was not a factor in our.

326
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:22,000
Projections.

327
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:26,000
We also would have assumed a cap on the annual inflation.

328
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,000
So that an increase in the base levy would not ask.

329
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:30,000
A percent.

330
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,000
And any given year.

331
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,000
Um.

332
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,000
The revenue impact to the general fund.

333
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,000
Would be about 20 million dollars.

334
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,000
Of additional property tax revenue allocated.

335
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,000
The general fund in 2027.

336
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,000
That's about.

337
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,000
17% greater than the amount.

338
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,000
We had.

339
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:54,000
We're projecting for 2027 before this.

340
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,000
And as you can see that amount increases at 2028.

341
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:02,000
Uh, and into the out years.

342
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,000
Um, as the the base would increase with inflation.

343
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:09,000
Uh, and then a second scenario we explored is.

344
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:13,000
Um, a one time adjustment to the total gross levy.

345
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,000
Retro active to 2020.

346
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:23,000
So increasing the base levy as well as the levy coming from these expiring incentives tips.

347
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,000
Um, and new properties.

348
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:31,000
If they had both from annually with inflation dating back to 2020.

349
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,000
So the revenue impact to the general funds.

350
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:39,000
From this one time adjustment would be about 170 million dollars.

351
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:40,000
Um.

352
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:44,000
And fiscal year 2027 and into the out years.

353
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,000
Uh, since it would be just.

354
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,000
Uh, in the scenario one time increase.

355
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,000
And so we utilized.

356
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,000
Uh, CPI.

357
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,000
Uh, for all our urban consumers for the BLS.

358
00:22:56,000 --> 00:23:06,000
Uh, to come up with these estimates for the second, uh, scenario here.

359
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:07,000
All right.

360
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,000
Miss, can you say when the last time the base levy was adjusted.

361
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,000
Just.

362
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,000
I think it was 1996.

363
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:18,000
Yeah.

364
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:22,000
I know, nominally it's been flat, but I guess it's like real.

365
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,000
It's been.

366
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:24,000
I'll see.

367
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,000
That's a.

368
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,000
Some.

369
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:28,000
I should.

370
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,000
Does that's almost 24% increase?

371
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,000
Yeah.

372
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,000
I see just.

373
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,000
When we met before when you breathe me.

374
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:46,000
I'm just that one one other way to think about it would be thinking about.

375
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,000
Keeping the tax rate.

376
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,000
Rather than the.

377
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,000
Of gross amount of constant.

378
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:55,000
Uh.

379
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,000
Which you, you know, you could pick whatever year's tax rate.

380
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,000
You want the tax rates.

381
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,000
I've just been falling.

382
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:01,000
Um.

383
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,000
Because that base is coming up.

384
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:04,000
That.

385
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,000
That.

386
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:06,000
Yeah.

387
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:07,000
So.

388
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,000
We sort of.

389
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,000
It's sort of like.

390
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,000
Keeping the tax rate constant is almost like saying.

391
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:16,000
The.

392
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,000
Property tax burden.

393
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,000
And this per dollar.

394
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,000
Real estate wealth is not going up.

395
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,000
Well, I think about it.

396
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,000
Sorry.

397
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,000
Given what for it.

398
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,000
That is by the.

399
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,000
The decision of new property.

400
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,000
The decision.

401
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,000
You've just fired to inspiring.

402
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,000
Um, incentives.

403
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:50,000
So we try to capture that natural growth in the tax base.

404
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,000
Whenever the issue whenever we.

405
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,000
Develop the lobby.

406
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:56,000
Um.

407
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,000
Started doing that.

408
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,000
I think in.

409
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:06,000
I don't remember the exact day, but it was probably about seven years ago.

410
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:11,000
Um.

411
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:12,000
I don't know.

412
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:13,000
But yeah.

413
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:14,000
Is that.

414
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:15,000
Is that kind of.

415
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:16,000
Because kind of look.

416
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:17,000
What we're doing.

417
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,000
But like I think like what you were you were.

418
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:20,000
You were suggesting it's like.

419
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:21,000
What did be that.

420
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,000
What if we knew the assessed value beforehand.

421
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:25,000
Right.

422
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,000
And then back into our total property tax.

423
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,000
Let me based on that.

424
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,000
And I don't think we would know that until.

425
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,000
I'll let's be looked retroactively.

426
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,000
Well, I mean, you could look at what the rate was.

427
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,000
You know the rate's been going down.

428
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,000
And so it's supposed to be.

429
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,000
It's not down by.

430
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,000
E percent.

431
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,000
Yeah.

432
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,000
But if that if you raised or whether by eight percent.

433
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,000
You sort of get to the same place.

434
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,000
I mean, you can do something on the science.

435
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,000
Yeah.

436
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,000
I don't know this necessarily better than this.

437
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,000
It's.

438
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,000
It's.

439
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:58,000
I'm going to be feeling it.

440
00:25:58,000 --> 00:25:59,000
But where I.

441
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:00,000
I would think about it.

442
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,000
That kind of what you're doing with the sales.

443
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,000
Tax.

444
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:04,000
I guess.

445
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:05,000
With the sales.

446
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:07,000
You're adjusting the.

447
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:08,000
I guess.

448
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:09,000
With the sales.

449
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,000
Just.

450
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:22,000
All right.

451
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,000
Just for our jumping.

452
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:25,000
Um.

453
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,000
This slide will go over.

454
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,000
A.

455
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:29,000
A.

456
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,000
A.

457
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:32,000
A.

458
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,000
A.

459
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:35,000
Um.

460
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,000
To give some context currently.

461
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,000
A.

462
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,000
A.

463
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,000
A.

464
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:40,000
A.

465
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:41,000
A.

466
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:42,000
A.

467
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:43,000
A.

468
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:44,000
A.

469
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:45,000
A.

470
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,000
A.

471
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:47,000
A.

472
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:48,000
A.

473
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:49,000
A.

474
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:50,000
A.

475
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:51,000
A.

476
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,000
A.

477
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,000
A.

478
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,000
A.

479
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,000
A.

480
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:56,000
A.

481
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:57,000
A.

482
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,000
A.

483
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,000
A.

484
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,000
A.

485
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,000
A.

486
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,000
A.

487
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:05,000
A.

488
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:06,000
A.

489
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:07,000
A.

490
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,000
A.

491
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:09,000
A.

492
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:10,000
A.

493
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:11,000
A.

494
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:12,000
A.

495
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,000
A.

496
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,000
A.

497
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:15,000
A.

498
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:16,000
A.

499
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:17,000
A.

500
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:18,000
A.

501
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,000
A.

502
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,000
A.

503
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:21,000
A.

504
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,000
A.

505
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:23,000
A.

506
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:24,000
A.

507
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,000
A.

508
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:26,000
A.

509
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,000
A.

510
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:28,000
A.

511
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:29,000
A.

512
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:30,000
A.

513
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:31,000
A.

514
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:39,240
structure and the addition of streaming tax base. We saw a lot of opportunity here. As we

515
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:46,040
see, the city of Chicago already implements a streaming tax. So our Department of Revenue

516
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:52,520
conducted an analysis of cities revenue from streaming. We incorporated those estimates into

517
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:59,800
the county forecast for amusement in the out years. And for streaming alone, that would bring

518
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:08,680
and 33 million annually. The breakdown of the tier restructure, this is shown in the methodology

519
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:14,360
section. The address minutes were drafted to be consistent with the cities of amusement ordinance

520
00:28:14,360 --> 00:28:24,040
language. This means tier one now be exempt tier two and three are both tax at the flat rate of

521
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:35,320
three percent. For tiers one and two, the criteria changed and 60 percent of tier one would be

522
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:43,480
a reclassified and elevated tier two. Ultimately increasing that tier two base. And with both

523
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:49,960
of these changes, the tier restructure and the streaming, we can see the total impact of proposed

524
00:28:49,960 --> 00:29:05,160
two is around $45 million in additional revenue. And the streaming is taxed at 3%. So when we did the

525
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:13,880
analysis on the city of Chicago, the tax at 10%. So the tax at 10.25, I think it is. So our

526
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:22,760
estimate right here will probably be along those levels. Just for the string, I know.

527
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:36,680
Oh, she knows her. She knows her jump to India. Tina go ahead. I believe that this reflects the tax rate of

528
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:45,400
three percent on the taxable base that we assessed from the city's records from no data.

529
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:57,400
The proposal should be the taxes the same way. Yeah, three percent. You're adding string into your base

530
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,400
up. Thank you. Yeah. Thanks.

531
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:23,000
We know anything, I guess that I also wonder about the vision of avoidance from stringing.

532
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:33,000
I don't know. I don't know, is that it's the bridge to a different address. It's not the impacts or something.

533
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:41,000
I guess you had a call. City of Chicago will find out.

534
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:49,000
You think this would be more elastic to that in terms of like projections. Again, you're assuming that there's no change in pattern.

535
00:30:49,000 --> 00:31:01,000
You know, you can get entertainment in different ways of newspapers or whatever, so this might be, this might be more, more elastic, basically.

536
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:09,000
In Chicago City, it was a 10% tax when you're adding to that. People are going to feel it.

537
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:14,000
We have to be less to city with the other, where we put it in.

538
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:18,000
Pass for your land now.

539
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:19,000
Okay.

540
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:23,000
I don't need four months.

541
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,000
Yeah, passwork, share the same.

542
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:33,000
But you can, you could still create a, I mean, like, you could, you could avoid these taxes.

543
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:34,000
Yeah.

544
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:42,000
I don't know if there's a literature on it at all, but anyway, again, it's probably just to say this is a very optimistic effort.

545
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,000
You know, so be there.

546
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:49,000
And I think with some of the consumption things that I meant before I was, it'd be interactive effects.

547
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:54,000
You know, so like, these are estimates in isolation of an individual tax.

548
00:31:54,000 --> 00:32:01,000
But if three of them were implemented, then some of those things might come to bite a little bit more.

549
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:03,000
Good.

550
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,000
And here we have gambling machine tax.

551
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:21,000
For gambling machine tax, we administer emblems for public gaming machines.

552
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:26,000
We thought the opportunity here was to increase the cost of video gaming terminals.

553
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,000
Also called BGTs.

554
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:33,000
The cost of these emblems from 200 to 500.

555
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:37,000
VGTs are just gaming terminals.

556
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:42,000
But these are ones usually found in mom and pop stores, not casinos.

557
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:47,000
We have a different category for casino video game channels.

558
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:57,000
Our methodology consisted of using our 2025 revenue data to find a number of emblems issue and apply that new rate.

559
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:04,000
The resulting percentage increase was then implied to the forecast to project the out years.

560
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:11,000
And we can see this roughly create three million in annual impact.

561
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:32,000
Thanks for watching.

562
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:02,000
Thanks for watching.

563
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:32,000
Thanks for watching.

564
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:02,000
Thanks for watching.

565
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:32,000
Thanks for watching.

566
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:02,000
Thanks for watching.

567
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:32,000
Thanks for watching.

568
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:02,000
Thanks for watching.

569
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:12,000
If anyone on the call can verify that they can hear me, that would be great.

570
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:17,000
I have a thumbs up and can you see my presentation.

571
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:22,000
Yes.

572
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:27,000
Okay, it's not going to share the screen, but we're sharing in the meeting.

573
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:32,000
Is that acceptable? Are you recording?

574
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:40,000
Okay, and then I think we can just look at our printed out copies.

575
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,000
And pivot there.

576
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:47,000
So we're currently still on gambling machine tax.

577
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:54,000
And then if anyone on the call, like it cuts out, please feel free to jump in and verify us.

578
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,000
gambling machine tax.

579
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:05,000
I think David finished and concluded this slide if there's any commentary.

580
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,000
To let us know now.

581
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,000
Otherwise, we'll move on to the next slide.

582
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:16,000
I think that's just wondering what's this branding and this revenue source with the phone line.

583
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:17,000
That.

584
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:18,000
Oh, like.

585
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,000
Oh, it's a quality market.

586
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:25,000
Like, I suppose the ports back as the IP things that they had a funding revenue source.

587
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:33,000
I think you'll have to invest more so impacting the teachings as it's more because we also have a sports wagering tax.

588
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:38,000
That has been that has been more volatile.

589
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:43,000
So it's it's been hard to parse out how those.

590
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:46,000
Prediction market apps.

591
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:53,000
I guess we'd say have been impacting because it is this sports wagering tax still.

592
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,000
I'll absolutely.

593
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,000
You can be counting.

594
00:38:56,000 --> 00:39:01,000
But for the the the VGT revenue was really driven by.

595
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,000
The amount of establishments.

596
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:11,000
And how many machine they have the most you could have is six terminals in your establishments.

597
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,000
And so we'll look at the.

598
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:19,000
I think that's the key thing to keep getting boards reports of it all the sheets month.

599
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,000
Let's see how that's been.

600
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,000
Uh, trying to get as far as I can.

601
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:24,000
South.

602
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:28,000
It's usually all the establishments backs out.

603
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:32,000
There's about 45 of them in the counties.

604
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,000
That you have these these terminals.

605
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,000
It has been in.

606
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:47,000
I haven't haven't stayed for four revenues over the last couple of years.

607
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,000
So I think it's more so just the.

608
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:53,000
Or is the ceiling with the number of establishments.

609
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:56,000
So we've tried to forecast that.

610
00:39:56,000 --> 00:40:11,000
Yeah.

611
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:14,000
Okay, moving on to alcoholic beverage tax.

612
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:24,000
So the alcoholic beverage taxes currently structured as a hybrid tax with flat per gallon rate taxes on beer and liquor.

613
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:29,000
And rates dependent on alcohol by volume for wine and similar products.

614
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:33,000
Um, I seen in the table just below.

615
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:39,000
So the revenue growth proposal here would be to increase all rates by applying the cumulative.

616
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:45,000
Inflations and so rates were last increased, which was in 2012.

617
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:50,000
Um, and that would be a 41% increase, which was then applied to the rates.

618
00:40:50,000 --> 00:41:00,000
Um, in terms of methodology, we apply the new rates to the 2025 tax base is that's the last year of complete data that we have for each tier.

619
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:05,000
And then this calculated the revenues that would have been generated at these new rates.

620
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:15,000
And then we calculated the additional revenues for these out years in the forecast by applying this percentage increase to our baseline forecast.

621
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:23,000
So for FY27, we would generate approximately 14.8 million while the out years were anticipating an additional 14.5.

622
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:29,000
And this dip accounts for the dip in trends of alcohol consumption.

623
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:40,000
Um, and there's we're forecasting a trend and reduced alcohol consumption.

624
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,000
And then the increases are per gallon.

625
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:48,000
Not all of them. So beer and liquor are per gallon rates.

626
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,000
So it's a flow.

627
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,000
But like, if you say 34 cents.

628
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,000
Yeah.

629
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:59,000
What's the 30% for cents for what?

630
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,000
Um.

631
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,000
That we're out.

632
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,000
What's that?

633
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:05,000
Oh, it is per.

634
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:06,000
That would be very good.

635
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:07,000
Okay.

636
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:08,000
Okay.

637
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:10,000
Okay.

638
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:16,000
But based on unvolume of what's in the liquor.

639
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:22,000
So these.

640
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:23,000
Great.

641
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:24,000
Really.

642
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:25,000
I thought we just surprised.

643
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:28,000
And this is what you do now, too.

644
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:29,000
But it really jacks up.

645
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:32,000
These are about 20%.

646
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:37,000
So that's I guess that's that's really more of that talking about.

647
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,000
Maybe it's one.

648
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:40,000
Yeah.

649
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:43,000
So it's a lot higher.

650
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,000
Yeah.

651
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:50,000
So we talked about changes in alcohol consumption.

652
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:53,000
And I'm hearing that.

653
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,000
People were built in.

654
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,000
Yes.

655
00:42:56,000 --> 00:43:11,000
I don't know if we're doing the marijuana consumption trade off is incorporated.

656
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:13,000
Department of revenue can speak to that.

657
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,000
I don't know if Tina wants to jump in.

658
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,000
So this is showing a one time reduction in revenue.

659
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:22,000
We're going from 27 to 20 and then constant.

660
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:23,000
Right.

661
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:24,000
The rest of the period.

662
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:25,000
Disapp.

663
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:26,000
Yeah.

664
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:27,000
I believe.

665
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:28,000
I believe.

666
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:29,000
Reasonable.

667
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:30,000
Based on previous trends.

668
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:31,000
Before it.

669
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:34,000
I mean, isn't this just a source that is declining over time.

670
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:35,000
Yeah.

671
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:36,000
We haven't seen it.

672
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:39,000
The planning in the last couple of years.

673
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,000
I think against our.

674
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:42,000
June forecast.

675
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,000
We had really forecast.

676
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,000
And that was as flat.

677
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:51,000
Um, I think that's why this probably showing it.

678
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,000
Um, that's just the same.

679
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:56,000
You're over here amounts.

680
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,000
Um, Tina, I noticed you unmuted.

681
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,000
Did you want to add to that?

682
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:03,000
I heard you say something about the I didn't hear the question.

683
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:06,000
I heard something about marijuana and.

684
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:07,000
Department of revenue.

685
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:11,000
And so I didn't know if you wanted to speak.

686
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:13,000
Okay.

687
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:14,000
Thank you.

688
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:15,000
Okay.

689
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:16,000
Thank you.

690
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:17,000
Okay.

691
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,000
We're going to do this.

692
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:21,000
Make your time.

693
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:26,000
No.

694
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,000
We've been kind of that before.

695
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:30,000
Uh,

696
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:31,000
Let me know.

697
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:32,000
Wi-Fi's back up.

698
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,000
So we're going to try and better.

699
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:35,000
I know.

700
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:36,000
Sorry for all the.

701
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,000
Uh,

702
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,000
Thanks for everyone's flexibility.

703
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:42,000
Um,

704
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:43,000
Tina,

705
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:44,000
One of them.

706
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,000
You're definitely.

707
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:47,000
Tina, do you want to jump in now?

708
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:49,000
Maybe we can hear you.

709
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:50,000
Um,

710
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,000
Can you hear me?

711
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:52,000
Yes, we can.

712
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:53,000
Great.

713
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:57,000
So I said I did not know if you wanted me.

714
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:59,000
I heard.

715
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:00,000
I couldn't hear the.

716
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:12,000
Question, I heard marijuana, and I heard Department of Revenue and I didn't really hear what the question was, so I don't know if you wanted me to weigh in anything.

717
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:24,000
I think the relevant thing is why is the projection of revenue increase for alcohol, black, insumption is the climate.

718
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:32,000
So it has been declining overall in the last few years.

719
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:44,000
I did not do these projections, but we did look at the individual categories in this.

720
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:50,000
And beer continues to decline each year.

721
00:45:50,000 --> 00:46:02,000
Hard liquor is actually it's spiked after covid in 2021 and that has been kind of volatile since then.

722
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:14,000
And wine and which is like the generally the category under 14% is wine.

723
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:26,000
And then 14 to 20% those have been pretty stable. So if beer is the main component that continues to decline.

724
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:30,000
I think that it should remain relatively stable.

725
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:38,000
I mean, I'm not sure if it's how long beer will continue to decline.

726
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:42,000
So.

727
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:54,000
I'm not sure what the, I wasn't a very good answer, but I'm not sure what the thought process behind the leaving it flat for the outline years.

728
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:58,000
Maybe someone assumed it was going to just level off at some point.

729
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:10,000
Yeah, I think I think that was the thinking and past iterations of the forecast is that there would be some bottoming out of that that.

730
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:18,000
You know, beer would just continue to decline perpetuity.

731
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,000
I think that was the main reason why.

732
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:22,000
Well, that's true.

733
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,000
Thank you.

734
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:30,000
You just asked the question. So you said wine is trending stable, but you see some volatility in.

735
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,000
What was the other kind of liquor?

736
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:38,000
Hard liquor above 20%. So I think everyone was doing shots after covid.

737
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:44,000
I think it was a lot of shots and then it kind of went down back up a little bit.

738
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:48,000
And so it's hard to say where that will go.

739
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,000
Not category.

740
00:47:50,000 --> 00:48:02,000
I guess just to be clear, this.

741
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:08,000
You have looked into the longer term forecast, but I'm particularly familiar with wine.

742
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:12,000
And that it's my understanding that the trend is downwards.

743
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:18,000
But the expectation that that will continue because younger people aren't drinking as much as older people.

744
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:26,000
I don't know what percent of the revenue source wine makes up of these three categories.

745
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:30,000
I don't I'm not familiar with the trends and beer.

746
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,000
Our hard liquor.

747
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:36,000
So I'm just wondering can we make sure we've looked at the market.

748
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:37,000
Yeah.

749
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:42,000
Ask for these things and make sure that this this transient reasonable for the revenue forecast.

750
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:44,000
Yeah, I think we can work.

751
00:48:44,000 --> 00:49:00,000
It's a reptile nest and see what the yellow breakdown is as far as it's different categories.

752
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:04,000
Um, with out for a question.

753
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:12,000
I will go on that side, which is our proposal for other tobacco products.

754
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:20,000
So the revenue growth option that we explored for the other tobacco products tax is a two part proposal.

755
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:28,000
Um, so first we are proposing an adjustment to expand the definition of products subject to the other tobacco products tax.

756
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:32,000
So that it would now include observable nicotine.

757
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:42,000
Um, this would include new nicotine products and product lines such as nicotine pouches that are not currently captured in the county's tax base.

758
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:48,000
Um, state of Illinois and other states have already expanded their definitions to include these products.

759
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:53,000
The second part of this proposal would revise the definition of consumable products.

760
00:49:53,000 --> 00:50:03,000
subject to the other tobacco products tax and this would clarify the ordinance language to include all vapor products regardless of nicotine content.

761
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:11,000
Um, and to ensure that the county taxes capturing all the products on the market regardless of nicotine 5.

762
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:14,000
As far as methodology for both of these.

763
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:26,000
Uh, we were reliant on our Department of Revenue's preliminary estimate estimates which they performed by sampling invoices to estimate the total number of these products.

764
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:32,000
Ordered from Cliff County retail tobacco dealers for both types of products.

765
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:38,000
Our proposal currently assumes a 5 cent per unit tax on the absorable nicotine products.

766
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:44,000
And a 20 cent tax per milliliter on vapor products regardless of nicotine content.

767
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:56,000
Um, both of our estimates assume a conservative compliance rate of 25% which would generate additional revenue of 1.1 million.

768
00:50:56,000 --> 00:51:02,000
For each of these parts of the proposals, so total it would be approximately 2.2 million.

769
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:16,000
Um, dollars worth of additional revenue for either.

770
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:20,000
So, um.

771
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,000
I guess.

772
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:26,000
Uh, where does the compliance rate 25% come from?

773
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:30,000
Um, that came from our Department of Revenue.

774
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:32,000
Um, I.

775
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:42,000
I don't know if that's their history with again, if you know what's the jump in, they gave us 25% rate of compliance and if 50% rate of compliance.

776
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:46,000
Um, and so really a low badge.

777
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:54,000
Yeah, we understand, so I don't know that's typically the trend with incorporating new taxes or new rates or expanding the base.

778
00:51:54,000 --> 00:52:02,000
So if I think you're not immediate, so if you want to jump in there.

779
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:10,000
Um, so it is our experience with this type of product, not taxes in general, but these,

780
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:18,000
rape and, um, and nicotine products that they're selling, um,

781
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:26,000
at these convenience stores and those types of stores that, um, they tend to,

782
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:34,000
they tend to sell products that maybe they get from non-compliant wholesalers.

783
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:42,000
Um, and so where it's a, um, a continuous effort to, um, inspect these businesses and,

784
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:50,000
and, you know, we issue a lot of, um, citations to them, but so 25% is just a pretty,

785
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:58,000
um, especially over, you know, in the first couple of years, um, it's a conservative

786
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:06,000
estimate, and you think are the compliance rates that low for the tax tobacco products too?

787
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:14,000
No, tobacco products, well, I mean, we do issue, we do find a lot of legal cigarettes out there, but, um,

788
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:22,000
it's definitely not as it's, these these products are harder to, to police, um,

789
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:28,000
you know, they get a lot, it's, we work with the state of Illinois and the state of Chicago,

790
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:36,000
and, you know, we go to, um, like these conferences and, um, there's just a lot of

791
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:44,000
contraband or, I guess you could, would say that, you know, they get from other countries and, um,

792
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:54,000
well, yeah, it's, you know, and, and with cigarettes, we can, it seems like there's not as much,

793
00:53:54,000 --> 00:54:02,000
um, non-compliance with cigarettes, these, these seem, you know, no big with cigarettes,

794
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:08,000
there's, there's, you know, a lot of that cigarettes stuff, you know, the cigarettes, it's a very,

795
00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:14,000
it's not so easy to sell cigarettes, they'll legal it without tax sanction,

796
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:20,000
it's, it's pretty easy to catch people, there's a lot of regulation to catch people, um, but,

797
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:26,000
uh, I guess I'm wondering about the paper, anyway, it's, I don't want to go too deeply in this because it's not that much money,

798
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:32,000
but, I mean, it seems to me, I just, I'll just say, it seems terrible policy to be taxing

799
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:40,000
non tobacco products, the same as tobacco products, except if we don't really know which is which, maybe it's not

800
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:48,000
a terrible policy. I mean, you know, we, we're taxing tobacco for a reason, so we don't want to tax

801
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:54,000
of a products that don't have nicotine, but in the other hand, if there's a lot of non-compliance,

802
00:54:54,000 --> 00:55:00,000
maybe the ones that say they don't have nicotine do have nicotine. So, I don't,

803
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:06,000
I don't think Frank's on the call, but Frank and the Department of Revenue explains me too that

804
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:12,000
there's kind of like a threshold before you have to list on the product that it does have nicotine,

805
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:18,000
so there might be some products that do have nicotine in them, but because they don't surface

806
00:55:18,000 --> 00:55:26,000
the certain thresholds, they can get away with not having to.

807
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:30,000
I think they're for get captured as a tax.

808
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:44,000
Thank you, sir.

809
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:46,000
Thank you.

810
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:50,000
No, I don't think so.

811
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,000
Okay, thank you so much.

812
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,000
I'm going to make advice on all.

813
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:55,000
Thank you.

814
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,000
For moving on to the next slide, then.

815
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:00,000
Our boss.

816
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:06,000
So this is just an update for back in 2020 for the coming establish the art of sustainability reserve and the idea

817
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:14,000
that was to carve a stair step into our fiscal cliff, associated with the kind of the American Rescue Act Rescue

818
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,000
program.

819
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:22,000
We knew that the county would not be able to continue to provide funding for all of the offer programs.

820
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:26,000
We had about 72 different programs.

821
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:32,000
And so the reserve was created for the state of purpose of reducing the amount allocated from it each year

822
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:36,000
between 2027 and 2029.

823
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:42,000
And in order to establish which programs just be what the state engaged in,

824
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:48,000
we need to be surveys and high for local conversations and as a result of those conversations.

825
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:54,000
And with coordination within the office of the president about which programs we could.

826
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:56,000
We could sustain an opportunity.

827
00:56:56,000 --> 00:57:04,000
We were able to identify these 12 programs to choose see on the right and we will be sustaining those programs.

828
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:08,000
Funding as identified in that table.

829
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:10,000
And FY 2020.

830
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:16,000
7 will be the first year that we use the American Rescue Plan Act reserve to sustain some of our programs.

831
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:19,000
And we'll be allocating a 52.7.

832
00:57:19,000 --> 00:57:22,000
$5.6 million.

833
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:24,000
Next slide.

834
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:31,000
In 2028, we will need to start addressing the expected gaps between these estimated costs and the art of the

835
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:32,000
reserve.

836
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:35,000
At this point, we have a shuttle projected gap that we bought.

837
00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:39,000
We'll need to know the dollars between 2028 and 2030.

838
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:45,000
And we'll be working closely with the departments to develop gap reduction strategies that include

839
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:52,000
seeking to identify external funds from the landscape and other external sources where we can.

840
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:55,000
Generating revenues from the programs themselves.

841
00:57:55,000 --> 00:58:02,000
And we'll be working with the help of possible and leveraging county funds or scaling down initiatives when necessary.

842
00:58:02,000 --> 00:58:05,000
All with the goal of savings programs.

843
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:07,000
And it's in the future.

844
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:09,000
We think we can do.

845
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:13,000
Any questions on that slide?

846
00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:19,000
That's for 2030.

847
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:24,000
The identified gap is 23.3.

848
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:27,000
But the total is 20.

849
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:34,000
On the previous slide.

850
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:35,000
That's right.

851
00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:38,000
We have $20 million in funding.

852
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:41,000
It's $23.3 million.

853
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:47,000
About 50, we $20.3.4 million in.

854
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:48,000
That's.

855
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:54,000
It's the blue.

856
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:56,000
It's just funding.

857
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:57,000
The best one.

858
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:58,000
I know.

859
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:02,000
20 million dollars.

860
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:03,000
Funding.

861
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:06,000
A return to selling different allocations of the resources.

862
00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:09,000
If you wanted to kind of get a sense of what the cost would be.

863
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:11,000
You could look at that 2027 table.

864
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:14,000
And that's pretty consistent across.

865
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:15,000
The process.

866
00:59:15,000 --> 00:59:16,000
These.

867
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:17,000
These.

868
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:18,000
Some of the program.

869
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:19,000
I thought.

870
00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:20,000
They out here.

871
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:21,000
And we see something.

872
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:22,000
Two systems.

873
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:23,000
They're projected.

874
00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:25,000
But those are going to change.

875
00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:27,000
They're.

876
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:28,000
As you get closer to that.

877
00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:29,000
We can find that.

878
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:30,000
We can.

879
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:31,000
Awesome.

880
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:32,000
I just.

881
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:33,000
I don't know.

882
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:43,000
So I think now at this point.

883
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:44,000
Right.

884
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:45,000
We've been populated.

885
00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:46,000
Those.

886
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:49,000
The channel expenses in here are.

887
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:52,000
Long term financial forecast.

888
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:54,000
And when you look at the tail end of our.

889
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:57,000
Alligator slide is we're in our department.

890
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:58,000
Let's see that.

891
00:59:58,000 --> 00:59:59,000
Part of.

892
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:00,000
We've.

893
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:21,420
It's mild. So, it was a good sign of orderly updates. Next, we're going to take a look at our sales

894
01:00:21,420 --> 01:00:32,620
impacts. So, I can only see you run through just how our assumptions of sales tax has changed over the

895
01:00:32,620 --> 01:00:40,620
life the last year and a half. How we think legislative changes, what we're seeing have impacted,

896
01:00:40,620 --> 01:00:49,980
especially in 2025 and 2026. And whether or not we can expect to see the recent high year

897
01:00:49,980 --> 01:00:58,380
year growth in the county sales tax, if that will continue into future years. So, on the next slide here,

898
01:00:59,420 --> 01:01:08,620
this is just some of the phasor legislation that was enacted, which has impacted a lot of the county's

899
01:01:08,620 --> 01:01:16,220
collection, a lot of local governments, collections in state. I'll really focus on second and third pieces

900
01:01:16,220 --> 01:01:24,940
here, public act 101, 31, which is the leveling, the playing field act. So, this altered this

901
01:01:24,940 --> 01:01:34,540
the, the telling occupation tax to be from a origin-based sales tax to like destination-based

902
01:01:34,540 --> 01:01:42,780
sales tax. So, there are many, many of most businesses out of state for paying some kind of revenue

903
01:01:42,780 --> 01:01:50,780
to the state of Illinois, but legislation that went into effect here had changed the way that the sales

904
01:01:50,780 --> 01:01:58,140
were taxed. So, a lot of these businesses were just remitting use tax, and so they wouldn't have to pay

905
01:01:58,140 --> 01:02:05,500
locally for those taxes. So, the leveling, the playing field, the tax changed that so that out of state

906
01:02:05,500 --> 01:02:17,180
sellers would then remit the locally owned taxes. And then enacted in 2025, January, there was a

907
01:02:17,180 --> 01:02:25,100
a change where we saw an inclusion of out-of-state sellers that have some kind of physical presence in

908
01:02:25,100 --> 01:02:32,300
Illinois. So, for example, a company that has a rep or sales office in Illinois, but shipping products

909
01:02:32,300 --> 01:02:38,940
to customers from a warehouse that was outside of the state, they used to just pay like the use tax rate

910
01:02:38,940 --> 01:02:46,860
for the state of six and a quarter, bypassing the local rates, they would now be captured and also

911
01:02:46,860 --> 01:02:54,060
pay locally in most sales taxes. So, these are two major drivers over the last five years that have

912
01:02:54,060 --> 01:03:05,340
impacted favorably the county's sales tax collections. And so, on the next slide here, we wanted to

913
01:03:05,340 --> 01:03:12,940
take a look at counties, sales tax, and we're portion of the county's sales tax versus the

914
01:03:12,940 --> 01:03:22,300
state's gross sales tax that goes into their general fund. So, there's what's referred to as PL or

915
01:03:22,300 --> 01:03:29,340
permanent location. There's a part of the county's sales tax that gets categorized as this. And this is

916
01:03:29,340 --> 01:03:37,580
per the state's website, from retail sales, from a permanent location, within the tax injuries,

917
01:03:37,580 --> 01:03:44,060
jurisdictions. So, think of more like brick and mortar stores. And if you look at the chart here,

918
01:03:45,260 --> 01:03:52,300
you know, the volume of revenue is obviously quite different, but we wanted to show just an

919
01:03:52,300 --> 01:04:01,020
way of how we think the state's gross sales tax in our PL tax revenue has been relatively

920
01:04:01,020 --> 01:04:11,500
close and trending over the past five years. But then on the next slide, we have here including

921
01:04:12,540 --> 01:04:19,500
PL tax payers, which is the changing location, from payers who have no permanent place of business

922
01:04:19,500 --> 01:04:25,340
within the taxing jurisdiction. But they do conduct intermittent retail sales within the

923
01:04:25,340 --> 01:04:35,900
jurisdiction. So, you could see from 2021 here, this revenue has been trending higher over time.

924
01:04:37,100 --> 01:04:46,140
This is what we think is from what we understand is the impact of revenue from the recently enacted

925
01:04:46,140 --> 01:04:55,420
legislation. And so, in 2025, you could see it really jumps up and has continued to 2026.

926
01:05:01,820 --> 01:05:11,340
This slide here, we're looking at the seat-out of taxpayers. So, the data that we get from the state,

927
01:05:11,340 --> 01:05:20,700
we've been seeing pretty steep increases in these CL tax payers, especially in January of 2025,

928
01:05:21,100 --> 01:05:32,220
when public acts, 103, 93, what into effects. So, you could see from a nominal standpoint chart on the left,

929
01:05:33,340 --> 01:05:40,300
quite a jump, almost doubling the average monthly revenue. And we're also seeing increases in

930
01:05:40,300 --> 01:05:49,580
2026. And then on the chart, on the right here, this is the CL's as a proportion of the total

931
01:05:50,140 --> 01:06:01,900
county sale facts. So, you know, prior to 2025, this CL revenue made up about 15 to 20% of the county sales tax.

932
01:06:02,780 --> 01:06:11,820
We've seen that really jump up in 2025 and continuing to increase in this latest fiscal year

933
01:06:11,820 --> 01:06:15,020
or is now in the range of 30 to 35%.

934
01:06:20,220 --> 01:06:26,220
Okay, that's a question. So, I guess we should, but so there's the sort of the delayed response to the

935
01:06:26,220 --> 01:06:33,260
legislation. I guess the thinking is that there was just so much of this had these sort of

936
01:06:33,260 --> 01:06:37,580
in-state presence that it wasn't didn't really bite because it's all those maps,

937
01:06:37,580 --> 01:06:43,180
is that kind of how we should think about this? Well, I think you could think of it as like the second

938
01:06:43,180 --> 01:06:54,620
legislation of 2025. It's like a standard of pace surfing. There was all these payers who were paying.

939
01:06:55,180 --> 01:07:00,140
They were paying like state tax, but they were paying because of like the definition of

940
01:07:01,660 --> 01:07:06,140
the speed of these locally imposed tax. So, it didn't were there, it didn't are now really

941
01:07:06,140 --> 01:07:16,140
factored to account in the last two years. The legislation was for it. It didn't remember what they were

942
01:07:16,140 --> 01:07:23,900
capturing. What was the motivation of it? For 2026, and I was doing food, service management,

943
01:07:23,900 --> 01:07:29,900
service, you know, that's right. So, I think the initial estimates couldn't be had for the

944
01:07:29,900 --> 01:07:35,740
servicemen was pretty minimal. I think it was about the million dollars annual.

945
01:07:38,300 --> 01:07:43,500
You know, I think that's we've got a couple more months of data. We could try to see if that

946
01:07:44,220 --> 01:07:49,020
is true or if there's maybe there's still like compliance from the previous year.

947
01:07:51,340 --> 01:07:56,540
So, we'll have to keep, you know, only polar reports were able to kind of get a little more

948
01:07:56,540 --> 01:08:02,540
see if there's new businesses that come on and these down those in the state.

949
01:08:06,460 --> 01:08:13,100
So, is this suggesting to me that the impact of the 2021's I decision was

950
01:08:13,100 --> 01:08:18,620
much smaller than the 2025? Yes. Have you talked to the owner department of revenue about that?

951
01:08:19,740 --> 01:08:26,780
So, I'm worried that there may be a changing definition of CL and PL because I know for sure,

952
01:08:26,780 --> 01:08:35,740
100% the 25 legislation was to fix unanticipated consequences over the major legislation, which was

953
01:08:35,740 --> 01:08:43,980
passed in 2021. So, yeah, I've not familiar with these codes and what's fallen into them over time.

954
01:08:43,980 --> 01:08:51,820
Yeah, the sale, the big, the big, it's my understanding that the real big change came in 2021 and

955
01:08:51,820 --> 01:08:59,260
everything since then has been cleaned and out unanticipated consequences in the 2021 legislation.

956
01:08:59,980 --> 01:09:04,860
Okay. Yeah, we, we can reach out to the state to see you again.

957
01:09:10,700 --> 01:09:17,740
So, then if that's the case, what explains the jump in revenue, the recent jump in revenue for the

958
01:09:17,740 --> 01:09:26,940
count is all in the count. I think we need to know more about the definite, because I think in

959
01:09:27,980 --> 01:09:35,100
this is good, but the definition has changed so much that orange is incompetent.

960
01:09:37,980 --> 01:09:43,980
No, all right. So, I think I think orange was much bigger than it is using this definition of CL.

961
01:09:44,860 --> 01:09:49,820
I think the definition of CL has changed over time. Or has been used on that form.

962
01:09:51,820 --> 01:09:58,140
But I don't know enough to, I mean, I just think it's cool. Yeah, do you think to

963
01:09:59,020 --> 01:10:05,500
visit students that were specific, it's like, like, PLs are now being. I've not familiar with the PL and

964
01:10:05,500 --> 01:10:14,620
CL, but what I do know is that 2021 tried to change a situation as follows. Amazon had a warehouse in

965
01:10:14,620 --> 01:10:24,220
Indiana. And it was being shipped to Chicago. And because it was out of state, the tax rate was

966
01:10:24,220 --> 01:10:34,460
lower than if it was in Julia and it was in ship to Chicago. So, somehow before 2021, the Julia distribution

967
01:10:34,620 --> 01:10:43,900
center was just picking up a higher tax rate than the best on product. I mean, that's how

968
01:10:43,900 --> 01:10:51,420
Amazon have their stuff in more high systems. It was really, really complicated. But I don't want

969
01:10:51,420 --> 01:11:01,500
us to say any more in this, because I'm just in use such, it's always been my understanding that

970
01:11:01,500 --> 01:11:08,140
with 2021 legislation was the big change. And all this other stuff is at the margin. Yeah.

971
01:11:08,140 --> 01:11:15,180
Yeah. I mean, I could be wrong, but that's, that's what I've always worked for. Yeah, I think that's

972
01:11:15,180 --> 01:11:20,300
sort of asking reports seems like there was a gaming that went on because of this sort of rule. If you

973
01:11:20,300 --> 01:11:26,300
had some in state presence or something, right, that would be. And if it was fig retailers with the Amazon's

974
01:11:26,380 --> 01:11:30,460
of the world where it tells people about their online stuff, right? They couldn't help that.

975
01:11:30,860 --> 01:11:37,740
And so expanding legislation. I think really, I'm not entirely sure. Like I think it says,

976
01:11:37,740 --> 01:11:43,020
there's changing location and temporary location. I don't know how accurately they maintain those

977
01:11:43,020 --> 01:11:48,860
quotes. But we've kind of come to the determination that it does represent in some fashion,

978
01:11:48,860 --> 01:11:55,820
now they're the online sales that are being captured. So I think, right, like,

979
01:11:57,820 --> 01:12:04,460
why don't they just call it online? Yeah. Because a vendor doesn't submit their tax return and say,

980
01:12:04,460 --> 01:12:09,660
I got this amount of sales from an online scammer. And I got this amount of sales from somebody who

981
01:12:09,660 --> 01:12:15,580
looked in the door. I mean, there was tons of online sales that would be in captured before 2021.

982
01:12:15,580 --> 01:12:21,100
Yeah, that's right. I mean, the 2021 was to pick up. It wouldn't be in captured and what was

983
01:12:21,100 --> 01:12:29,260
being captured at the state read, but not the real. Yeah. Yeah. But it just it's a lot more complicated.

984
01:12:29,260 --> 01:12:36,700
And I think of the intent. It's, it's a tax return. You know, it's not like your serve and

985
01:12:36,700 --> 01:12:40,140
martial fails and like, you know, where did your customers come from and what's shocked at the

986
01:12:40,140 --> 01:12:46,780
by a man that did you mail to them on? You know, it's, and well, we have historically no one

987
01:12:46,780 --> 01:12:52,140
going to go to nine sales were being captured before 2020, most of them. Again, this is all just

988
01:12:53,020 --> 01:12:59,100
small. The data is compared to what was already being collected. Exactly. I think we've got this

989
01:12:59,100 --> 01:13:05,740
surge in revenue. Yeah. So it's got to be something that explains that. Right. So some of these

990
01:13:05,740 --> 01:13:11,340
came on. Yeah. Yeah. Because of the tax, the tax, no, it came applied to them. Yeah. Right.

991
01:13:12,140 --> 01:13:18,460
We're start. So I'm, and then you go back. So it would have been 2020, 2020 compared 2020 compared to 2021.

992
01:13:18,460 --> 01:13:24,300
And we talked about this in the phone. Then 2020 was so messed up because of COVID. Yeah. Like, so we don't

993
01:13:24,300 --> 01:13:33,900
know what, how big of that jump was before 2021 and the Dow is not playing the real big

994
01:13:33,900 --> 01:13:42,220
little back. And I mean, every time you do a different kind of this analysis that improves,

995
01:13:42,220 --> 01:13:47,420
and the more data you get, the more data, you know, the more surprising and more than you understand.

996
01:13:47,420 --> 01:13:52,700
And I just, I think we're still in a very right to tell us, even though this, this seems like a nice

997
01:13:52,700 --> 01:13:57,740
clean story, but it probably isn't. It's probably more complicated than this. To me, this seemed

998
01:13:57,740 --> 01:14:04,540
that way. Okay. Well, the sixth place. That makes all make sense. Yeah. But maybe it's more complicated than that.

999
01:14:04,540 --> 01:14:11,020
Yeah. This is a nice explanation. Right. I mean, you're showing the things we're stable at

1000
01:14:11,020 --> 01:14:15,980
following the general pattern with the fiels, right? The growth of the things and the else. Yeah.

1001
01:14:15,980 --> 01:14:21,580
And one question I have is, you know, are we done with the growth in the cls, the kind of jumping ahead

1002
01:14:21,580 --> 01:14:31,660
is live here. Yeah. But it looks like we've maybe hit my toe. But yeah. But that's, that's,

1003
01:14:32,780 --> 01:14:38,140
it does seem that that's where the growth's coming from. Well, exactly. Some cool figures.

1004
01:14:39,180 --> 01:14:45,900
Yeah. Yeah. So, yes. You know, this slide here really shows far as like the annual change and the

1005
01:14:45,900 --> 01:14:54,620
monthly revenues for the, you can see the cls is compared to the allocation and also how that looks

1006
01:14:54,620 --> 01:14:59,900
on the state level two in our p.l. in the state is.

1007
01:15:00,000 --> 01:15:26,000
You know, tracking pretty close. But yes, just closing in 2025, that legislation. And then, you know, we think it's moderating now. And this is like what we, you know, once, as far as like getting our forecasts right. And like our dummy variable, which we have for our model.

1008
01:15:26,000 --> 01:15:38,000
Um, not seeing nothing that's going to be a continuation of growth in the legislation, making sure that that does is reflected in the model.

1009
01:15:38,000 --> 01:15:44,000
And it's going to be our not expecting this to grow up in perpetuity and cheer.

1010
01:15:44,000 --> 01:16:02,000
One way by the way, if you go back and slide to maybe trying to think about whether there's any room to run, is that you're getting 45% in the last few months about some more.

1011
01:16:02,000 --> 01:16:18,000
30, 35% of your revenue from these CL. So, like trying to compare that with like what's share of retail sales around line versus in person. Like that should be a statistic that's out there in the two should line up. Right. So if it is about 35% of sales.

1012
01:16:18,000 --> 01:16:20,000
Then.

1013
01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:30,000
And then, you know, you sort of run your course here. But if it's 40, maybe there's a little bit more, there's some people that are still out there not there.

1014
01:16:30,000 --> 01:16:36,000
Yeah, so it's just, could you go back and see if somebody was if.

1015
01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:40,000
BL at one point and became appear.

1016
01:16:40,000 --> 01:16:55,000
Um, I could say just I've caught or there's been one month for there's been months of the business being categorized to PL and then they change.

1017
01:16:55,000 --> 01:17:05,000
So the next one's B of CL. But then it seems like it gets switched back and it was kind of like a one off like maybe a narrower the way that was entered.

1018
01:17:05,000 --> 01:17:08,000
That doesn't seem to happen too often now.

1019
01:17:08,000 --> 01:17:18,000
It's more so observing more C else coming on line with each dispersed.

1020
01:17:18,000 --> 01:17:24,000
Okay, but not not so much chips, you know, switching between the two category categories.

1021
01:17:24,000 --> 01:17:37,000
There are like businesses too, where they'll still have PL lines but then they'll have a CL line to come on at some point and it seems like.

1022
01:17:37,000 --> 01:17:51,000
You know, there's just like another part of like I said the way that they're submitting it a class five, so there'll be two for the business of the CL and TL that we've seen as well.

1023
01:17:51,000 --> 01:17:57,000
But not so much like operating on the big categorized one and then switching to the other.

1024
01:17:58,000 --> 01:18:00,000
It's the, it's the up ones.

1025
01:18:00,000 --> 01:18:05,000
So what, what do you get from the.

1026
01:18:05,000 --> 01:18:10,000
So lecture, when these businesses were just can these kinds.

1027
01:18:10,000 --> 01:18:13,000
Are you getting any information from them?

1028
01:18:13,000 --> 01:18:19,000
Well, I think we've only been getting this data for like the last.

1029
01:18:19,000 --> 01:18:23,000
I think maybe two and a half or years.

1030
01:18:23,000 --> 01:18:26,000
So before that we weren't really getting any.

1031
01:18:26,000 --> 01:18:29,000
That's that's that's.

1032
01:18:29,000 --> 01:18:36,000
But would you have got even in the last year or 20 25 would on the five you get from the step.

1033
01:18:36,000 --> 01:18:39,000
You would just be getting.

1034
01:18:39,000 --> 01:18:41,000
Businesses.

1035
01:18:41,000 --> 01:18:43,000
That's had that.

1036
01:18:43,000 --> 01:18:45,000
I think retail.

1037
01:18:45,000 --> 01:18:51,000
So if they were paying the use tax they would now if they wouldn't show up on a file for you.

1038
01:18:51,000 --> 01:18:56,000
And even though you were getting a distribution from the wish tax more as it may be.

1039
01:18:56,000 --> 01:18:58,000
Like from the government government.

1040
01:18:58,000 --> 01:18:59,000
Yeah.

1041
01:18:59,000 --> 01:19:01,000
I mean it from portion.

1042
01:19:01,000 --> 01:19:07,000
But you don't have any transparency on whether they were.

1043
01:19:07,000 --> 01:19:12,000
New businesses or they were paying use tax all of a sudden they just come on.

1044
01:19:12,000 --> 01:19:13,000
Graphile.

1045
01:19:13,000 --> 01:19:16,000
We've made assumptions over the last couple.

1046
01:19:17,000 --> 01:19:19,000
Because.

1047
01:19:19,000 --> 01:19:22,000
The way that we when we talk to the state.

1048
01:19:22,000 --> 01:19:28,000
We ask like how could we tell what are the new what are the new revenues from the legislation.

1049
01:19:28,000 --> 01:19:32,000
And we were informed that you should track the C L's.

1050
01:19:32,000 --> 01:19:42,000
And like the business that the new businesses that come online in a month is probably related to the most recently impact and acted a legislation.

1051
01:19:42,000 --> 01:19:48,000
So we would track to see each month when we pull if there's like a new.

1052
01:19:48,000 --> 01:19:50,000
A business and account code.

1053
01:19:50,000 --> 01:19:52,000
And it's under C L.

1054
01:19:52,000 --> 01:19:54,000
Then we could kind of tag that.

1055
01:19:54,000 --> 01:19:56,000
As.

1056
01:19:58,000 --> 01:20:05,000
So it says that possible the way the question was asked and files answered that the C L.

1057
01:20:05,000 --> 01:20:09,000
Some of them were panic use tax.

1058
01:20:09,000 --> 01:20:11,000
But they're new to you.

1059
01:20:11,000 --> 01:20:13,000
So so you're being told.

1060
01:20:13,000 --> 01:20:15,000
Go all the C L's.

1061
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:16,000
Yeah.

1062
01:20:16,000 --> 01:20:19,000
But that doesn't mean that they went over.

1063
01:20:21,000 --> 01:20:23,000
Yeah.

1064
01:20:23,000 --> 01:20:24,000
Yeah.

1065
01:20:24,000 --> 01:20:28,000
Because you know I'm a bit troubled by this.

1066
01:20:28,000 --> 01:20:32,000
In fact of 2020 five because it shouldn't be that.

1067
01:20:33,000 --> 01:20:34,000
Large.

1068
01:20:34,000 --> 01:20:36,000
And part to 2021.

1069
01:20:36,000 --> 01:20:38,000
But if there's.

1070
01:20:41,000 --> 01:20:45,000
If a whole bunch of new companies are showing up in your file.

1071
01:20:45,000 --> 01:20:48,000
Because they're pan kindly tax.

1072
01:20:48,000 --> 01:20:51,000
Not because they're all the sudden paying tax.

1073
01:20:51,000 --> 01:20:53,000
But they were always paying the use tax.

1074
01:20:53,000 --> 01:20:56,000
They just and I fall into your bucket.

1075
01:20:57,000 --> 01:21:00,000
So I guess part of that conversation is.

1076
01:21:00,000 --> 01:21:06,000
Like when we that the lineage matters like online taxes when we use the term online sales.

1077
01:21:06,000 --> 01:21:08,000
The taxes will be impaired.

1078
01:21:08,000 --> 01:21:13,000
They just won't be impaired at the higher rate for the kind team to get.

1079
01:21:13,000 --> 01:21:19,000
And I think that that I mean not about distinction is is really important.

1080
01:21:19,000 --> 01:21:20,000
Yeah.

1081
01:21:20,000 --> 01:21:23,000
Because real because that's the game going back to that.

1082
01:21:23,000 --> 01:21:26,000
Then tentative legislation was to buy.

1083
01:21:26,000 --> 01:21:28,000
The local taxes.

1084
01:21:28,000 --> 01:21:31,000
Whatever it was and could whatever was as you call will.

1085
01:21:31,000 --> 01:21:35,000
To be a lie to be collected on sales because up until that point.

1086
01:21:35,000 --> 01:21:37,000
There was no legal authority.

1087
01:21:37,000 --> 01:21:40,000
To collect anything one at six and an order.

1088
01:21:40,000 --> 01:21:41,000
Yeah.

1089
01:21:41,000 --> 01:21:42,000
Yeah.

1090
01:21:42,000 --> 01:21:43,000
I think we should.

1091
01:21:43,000 --> 01:21:44,000
Let's back out.

1092
01:21:44,000 --> 01:21:46,000
So I was just a number.

1093
01:21:46,000 --> 01:21:47,000
Yeah.

1094
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:51,000
I think it would be helpful for me to.

1095
01:21:51,000 --> 01:21:57,000
I'm just a given example of what you consider a CL is that more the pop up phenomenon that we're seeing.

1096
01:21:57,000 --> 01:22:02,000
There's companies like organizations are coming in and standing up temporary.

1097
01:22:02,000 --> 01:22:05,000
Pop up locations and they're up to the next state.

1098
01:22:05,000 --> 01:22:09,000
This is more of like like a place facilitator.

1099
01:22:09,000 --> 01:22:10,000
Okay.

1100
01:22:11,000 --> 01:22:14,000
Like they go online platform.

1101
01:22:14,000 --> 01:22:15,000
Yeah.

1102
01:22:15,000 --> 01:22:16,000
Like you're Amazon's.

1103
01:22:16,000 --> 01:22:17,000
Yeah.

1104
01:22:17,000 --> 01:22:18,000
Okay.

1105
01:22:18,000 --> 01:22:19,000
Yeah.

1106
01:22:19,000 --> 01:22:21,000
So it's strange to call them.

1107
01:22:21,000 --> 01:22:22,000
See.

1108
01:22:22,000 --> 01:22:23,000
That's right.

1109
01:22:23,000 --> 01:22:25,000
That's not going to be what's going on.

1110
01:22:25,000 --> 01:22:26,000
Yeah.

1111
01:22:26,000 --> 01:22:27,000
It's not something.

1112
01:22:27,000 --> 01:22:28,000
That's changing their location.

1113
01:22:28,000 --> 01:22:30,000
This way is the question.

1114
01:22:30,000 --> 01:22:34,000
Because I think it's more there's a growth in the pop up type venues.

1115
01:22:34,000 --> 01:22:36,000
Happening specifically in Chicago.

1116
01:22:36,000 --> 01:22:38,000
I'm thinking is that a driver.

1117
01:22:38,000 --> 01:22:40,000
But you're saying that's not the audience.

1118
01:22:40,000 --> 01:22:41,000
Yeah.

1119
01:22:41,000 --> 01:22:42,000
Okay.

1120
01:22:42,000 --> 01:22:46,000
Like what we're trying to highlight here is that should detail that we get.

1121
01:22:46,000 --> 01:22:53,000
State of Park is an exactly conducive for performing in depth analysis on.

1122
01:22:53,000 --> 01:22:55,000
You know, how much of our.

1123
01:22:55,000 --> 01:23:01,000
On all of our sales tax is related to online sales.

1124
01:23:01,000 --> 01:23:03,000
What we have available to us are.

1125
01:23:04,000 --> 01:23:06,000
In the most.

1126
01:23:06,000 --> 01:23:12,000
Like finest level of detail that is provided to us are three types of categorizations.

1127
01:23:12,000 --> 01:23:17,000
EL CL and TL and none of them are very well defined.

1128
01:23:17,000 --> 01:23:27,000
So we're using the best data that we can in order to identify the information and and and estimate what the components of the legislation are doing here.

1129
01:23:27,000 --> 01:23:31,000
And I think they've done a really good job of putting that information together.

1130
01:23:31,000 --> 01:23:33,000
And so I'm pretty.

1131
01:23:33,000 --> 01:23:39,000
I'm telling a story about, you know, how the legislation has impacted those categories.

1132
01:23:39,000 --> 01:23:42,000
Now whether or not those categories are accurate.

1133
01:23:42,000 --> 01:23:47,000
Whether those categories are a good representation of what online sales are.

1134
01:23:47,000 --> 01:23:49,000
I don't think it's that question.

1135
01:23:49,000 --> 01:23:56,000
But we can say that, you know, ostensibly, right, that the legislation has had a pretty significant impact.

1136
01:23:56,000 --> 01:23:58,000
On the CL tax lawyers.

1137
01:23:58,000 --> 01:24:01,000
We have largely attributed.

1138
01:24:01,000 --> 01:24:03,000
I'm telling.

1139
01:24:03,000 --> 01:24:06,000
Yes, so the sales are a subset of online.

1140
01:24:06,000 --> 01:24:07,000
Yeah.

1141
01:24:07,000 --> 01:24:10,000
And I think it's probably for us.

1142
01:24:10,000 --> 01:24:15,000
You should talk to or I can't talk to some.

1143
01:24:15,000 --> 01:24:20,000
I think there's very little.

1144
01:24:21,000 --> 01:24:22,000
Post legislation.

1145
01:24:22,000 --> 01:24:24,000
I third it close anymore.

1146
01:24:24,000 --> 01:24:26,000
Gaps loop holes.

1147
01:24:26,000 --> 01:24:27,000
You know, whatever.

1148
01:24:27,000 --> 01:24:29,000
So I think this last push.

1149
01:24:29,000 --> 01:24:30,000
It's going to.

1150
01:24:30,000 --> 01:24:34,000
Like I think there was one thing that didn't have something marginal.

1151
01:24:34,000 --> 01:24:35,000
And.

1152
01:24:35,000 --> 01:24:36,000
So I think.

1153
01:24:36,000 --> 01:24:37,000
I.

1154
01:24:37,000 --> 01:24:38,000
Still.

1155
01:24:38,000 --> 01:24:39,000
Can.

1156
01:24:39,000 --> 01:24:40,000
Can.

1157
01:24:40,000 --> 01:24:41,000
Can.

1158
01:24:41,000 --> 01:24:43,000
Can.

1159
01:24:43,000 --> 01:24:44,000
Can.

1160
01:24:44,000 --> 01:24:45,000
Can.

1161
01:24:45,000 --> 01:24:46,000
Can.

1162
01:24:46,000 --> 01:24:47,000
Can.

1163
01:24:47,000 --> 01:24:48,000
Can.

1164
01:24:48,000 --> 01:24:49,000
Can.

1165
01:24:49,000 --> 01:24:50,000
It can.

1166
01:24:50,000 --> 01:24:51,000
Can.

1167
01:24:51,000 --> 01:25:04,000
Do.

1168
01:25:04,000 --> 01:25:07,000
Can.

1169
01:25:07,000 --> 01:25:08,000
Can.

1170
01:25:08,000 --> 01:25:10,000
Can.

1171
01:25:10,000 --> 01:25:12,000
Can.

1172
01:25:12,000 --> 01:25:14,000
Can.

1173
01:25:14,000 --> 01:25:16,000
Just go back to like the analysis of the sales tax that you were like a blind.

1174
01:25:16,000 --> 01:25:18,000
I'm not sure that you.

1175
01:25:18,000 --> 01:25:23,000
the effect of the word, but it's easier for that to be nice.

1176
01:25:28,000 --> 01:25:30,000
On this next slide here, it's a,

1177
01:25:30,000 --> 01:25:33,000
we have like a breakout of just,

1178
01:25:33,000 --> 01:25:35,000
you know, the CL, the PLs,

1179
01:25:35,000 --> 01:25:39,000
the purple-cook sales tax.

1180
01:25:39,000 --> 01:25:41,000
Looking at like six months,

1181
01:25:41,000 --> 01:25:46,000
like just seeing the year over your changes.

1182
01:25:47,000 --> 01:25:48,000
And so, you know,

1183
01:25:48,000 --> 01:25:51,000
as what sticks out on this is CL,

1184
01:25:51,000 --> 01:25:52,000
as you can see,

1185
01:25:53,000 --> 01:25:58,000
how much significant the higher the year over here.

1186
01:25:58,000 --> 01:26:03,000
Sales have been as compared to the state,

1187
01:26:03,000 --> 01:26:07,000
the PL, the PLs of the Cook County.

1188
01:26:07,000 --> 01:26:09,000
But you know, when we put this together,

1189
01:26:09,000 --> 01:26:14,000
we were using January to be both data for 26

1190
01:26:14,000 --> 01:26:16,000
all the way on the right there.

1191
01:26:16,000 --> 01:26:20,000
And so, you could really see that the CL coming down,

1192
01:26:20,000 --> 01:26:23,000
as we think that's starting to moderate,

1193
01:26:23,000 --> 01:26:27,000
at least coming closer to what it was before 2025.

1194
01:26:35,000 --> 01:26:37,000
As a photo say that this is given us some insight

1195
01:26:37,000 --> 01:26:41,000
into like the impact of inflation versus something else,

1196
01:26:41,000 --> 01:26:46,000
because the growth has not been very significant in the PLs,

1197
01:26:46,000 --> 01:26:49,000
compared to what inflation.

1198
01:26:49,000 --> 01:26:51,000
Oh, but it's gone up again.

1199
01:26:51,000 --> 01:26:53,000
Hmm.

1200
01:26:53,000 --> 01:26:54,000
In 2026.

1201
01:26:54,000 --> 01:26:55,000
Yeah.

1202
01:26:55,000 --> 01:26:56,000
Yeah.

1203
01:27:01,000 --> 01:27:04,000
It's possible that growth could have faster in the PLs,

1204
01:27:04,000 --> 01:27:07,000
if that's where the sales growth is.

1205
01:27:07,000 --> 01:27:13,000
So it could still continue to grow there a little bit faster.

1206
01:27:13,000 --> 01:27:14,000
Yeah.

1207
01:27:14,000 --> 01:27:18,000
I think we would all agree that e-commerce sales are growing in a faster place

1208
01:27:18,000 --> 01:27:21,000
than physical locations.

1209
01:27:21,000 --> 01:27:23,000
So I think we're seeing this.

1210
01:27:23,000 --> 01:27:26,000
You know, that's somewhat reflected in this information,

1211
01:27:26,000 --> 01:27:28,000
but also the change in legislation.

1212
01:27:28,000 --> 01:27:41,000
So in this next slide here, we're highlighting how the annual sales tax

1213
01:27:41,000 --> 01:27:45,000
projections that we produce have changed over time,

1214
01:27:45,000 --> 01:27:48,000
going back to April of last year.

1215
01:27:48,000 --> 01:27:53,000
And so, you know, just following the colors of the rainbow here,

1216
01:27:53,000 --> 01:27:59,000
you could see that our forecasts is in 2025.

1217
01:27:59,000 --> 01:28:02,000
They were pretty close together in the out years,

1218
01:28:02,000 --> 01:28:05,000
but for 2026 and for 2025,

1219
01:28:05,000 --> 01:28:08,000
they were gradually increasing.

1220
01:28:08,000 --> 01:28:16,000
And then in the more recent sales tax forecast for April and June,

1221
01:28:16,000 --> 01:28:22,000
you could see that the base in the near term of what we're projecting

1222
01:28:22,000 --> 01:28:27,000
has really increased as the 2025 and 2026 collections

1223
01:28:27,000 --> 01:28:32,000
have just been much higher than we were projecting prior.

1224
01:28:32,000 --> 01:28:37,000
But if you look at the out years here in the table below,

1225
01:28:37,000 --> 01:28:43,000
you could see the year over your changes in 2028 through 2030.

1226
01:28:43,000 --> 01:28:45,000
It's pretty conservative.

1227
01:28:45,000 --> 01:28:48,000
You know, a red around 2%.

1228
01:28:49,000 --> 01:28:54,000
It's more so in 2026 that we've seen such a high increase

1229
01:28:54,000 --> 01:28:56,000
in the year over your projections.

1230
01:28:56,000 --> 01:29:06,000
And that's what's been in our forecasts for the sales tax in the out years.

1231
01:29:06,000 --> 01:29:09,000
And then the next slide is just the same thing.

1232
01:29:09,000 --> 01:29:13,000
It's more of a monthly look at the scale.

1233
01:29:13,000 --> 01:29:17,000
Along with some black dots here showing the actuals.

1234
01:29:17,000 --> 01:29:22,000
And so you could see in the left side of this line chart,

1235
01:29:22,000 --> 01:29:26,000
the actuals have been higher than what we were projecting over time

1236
01:29:26,000 --> 01:29:30,000
over the year produced earlier forecasts.

1237
01:29:30,000 --> 01:29:34,000
And so that's what's, as we got more data and collections,

1238
01:29:34,000 --> 01:29:39,000
what was driving the more recent forecast of the sales tax

1239
01:29:39,000 --> 01:29:41,000
to the out years.

1240
01:29:41,000 --> 01:29:46,000
But for the out years, you know, the projections kind of follow a similar trend.

1241
01:29:46,000 --> 01:29:59,000
It's just that the base has been higher as a result of more feeble references.

1242
01:29:59,000 --> 01:30:00,000
And then on this.

1243
01:30:00,000 --> 01:30:20,000
That slide here. We wanted to just show some of the recent outputs from our direction model, you know, one reason why just showing what are the different coefficients, ingredients that go into the model, you know, we factor in

1244
01:30:20,000 --> 01:30:29,000
funds to the senior faculty. We include a dummy, a dummy vehicle, which we update each time you're on the floor and asked.

1245
01:30:29,000 --> 01:30:39,000
Trying to adjust for a recent legislation. So that's sort of how it does not assume that we'll see growth into the out years.

1246
01:30:39,000 --> 01:31:01,000
And then we have the different economic indicators that we've used going back to April of last year, which we use retail sales for the Chicago MSA, as well as number of employed persons and number of households, both in the MSA to set the macro economic floor.

1247
01:31:01,000 --> 01:31:16,000
And so your model here, as far as the adjusted art square shows that about 96% of the movement in the base is reflected from the coefficients here.

1248
01:31:16,000 --> 01:31:19,000
So I did, I'm sorry.

1249
01:31:19,000 --> 01:31:30,000
Well, I was just going to say we talked about this a bit in the briefing. I just think there's a lot to dig into here and I'm going to suggest that.

1250
01:31:30,000 --> 01:31:40,000
I'm going to withhold my comments, but except we'll request that we can explore as a discuss it.

1251
01:31:40,000 --> 01:31:47,000
I discussed it is a lot discussed and I was, you know, just this is something I had kind of asked for.

1252
01:31:47,000 --> 01:31:53,000
So if that comment on a little bit one thing, it is that the coefficients are quite stable.

1253
01:31:53,000 --> 01:32:03,000
In each of the different forecasts and that's that's a good thing that that applies like the model was like fundamentally changing, but the underlying factors were.

1254
01:32:03,000 --> 01:32:09,000
Right, so in terms of thinking about all of these things, there are sort of these one off in slight jumps.

1255
01:32:09,000 --> 01:32:13,000
But it is remarkably stable.

1256
01:32:13,000 --> 01:32:22,000
Another way to sort of see that actually would be to if you go up a couple of slides back a couple of slides there.

1257
01:32:22,000 --> 01:32:31,000
So if you look at the rainbow chart here, which is very cool, but the slopes of the lines in the out years are basically all the same.

1258
01:32:31,000 --> 01:32:37,000
So essentially, in all of your forecasts, you're predicting this as like a one step young, right.

1259
01:32:37,000 --> 01:32:46,000
It each time each updated forecast that one time jump got a little bit bigger, but the slopes in all those out years are basically all the same.

1260
01:32:46,000 --> 01:32:52,000
And so it's sort of saying all along your models, see that's one time thing and it still is.

1261
01:32:52,000 --> 01:32:59,000
And so that's the stability of the coefficients are certainly counting to that slope.

1262
01:32:59,000 --> 01:33:12,000
Yeah, to your point about really for one period where there was some instability, that was I think definitely an April, if you look at like the households there, that seems to jump up or jump down I guess.

1263
01:33:12,000 --> 01:33:24,000
Before kind of perverted back to those sort of where it was before and you know, same with retail that really jumped up to from the previous model or come back down.

1264
01:33:24,000 --> 01:33:34,000
It is interesting, but the intercept jumped up. So it's like, you know, getting weird things that could just be kind of off setting each on that right.

1265
01:33:34,000 --> 01:33:40,000
Yeah, yeah, spend a little time with it, but I don't know that I feel like the picture.

1266
01:33:40,000 --> 01:33:48,000
It's helpful because that's your your forecast from these coefficients and you really are seeing quite a bit of stability especially.

1267
01:33:48,000 --> 01:33:58,000
So you get a better sense of that trade off between okay, a couple things jumping around in that one period, but not like the slope changed a lot and then that would make me think like, oh, the model was saying, right.

1268
01:33:58,000 --> 01:34:01,000
I was thinking about this as like a forever thing.

1269
01:34:01,000 --> 01:34:03,000
Yeah, so we went off.

1270
01:34:03,000 --> 01:34:21,000
So I think there's a portion on fails, that's yeah, and she got once back and so I look forward to taking a session.

1271
01:34:21,000 --> 01:34:32,000
So another part of the IRFC side from analyzing revenues in our forecast is.

1272
01:34:32,000 --> 01:34:39,000
Coming up with preliminary recommendations to be submitted to see.

1273
01:34:39,000 --> 01:34:45,000
I've hope is for August first and so that's what we're looking at today.

1274
01:34:45,000 --> 01:34:59,000
And so one of the recommendations we have here is something that we've recognized previous years, but continuing to think about fiscal sustainability from our but.

1275
01:34:59,000 --> 01:35:12,000
As Dean mentioned earlier, you know, we're thinking about the allocation of the reserves that we have for our programs continuing to collaborate with them.

1276
01:35:12,000 --> 01:35:26,000
In the coming months and year thinking about different funding options for the programs that are in place and if they will continue to remain in some years after.

1277
01:35:26,000 --> 01:35:29,000
The next recommendation is.

1278
01:35:29,000 --> 01:35:30,000
Um, evaluating.

1279
01:35:30,000 --> 01:35:42,000
If a witty of suffice use by the county and exploring potential modifications to existing revenues that are in the county's budget and federal fund.

1280
01:35:42,000 --> 01:35:55,000
So as you can see from the alligator chart here that was reference earlier in 2027 and to be out years we're looking at some pretty significant deficits and general fund.

1281
01:35:55,000 --> 01:36:08,000
So, you know, as the county would maybe look at different scenarios to potentially modify taxes that are currently in place in general funds.

1282
01:36:08,000 --> 01:36:17,000
You know, assessing the validity of the methods used by the county to determine if these are sounds.

1283
01:36:17,000 --> 01:36:22,000
Is this.

1284
01:36:23,000 --> 01:36:28,000
Are some of the ones that we've we talked about today, the examples of what we fall under this umbrella.

1285
01:36:28,000 --> 01:36:29,000
Yeah.

1286
01:36:29,000 --> 01:36:30,000
Yeah.

1287
01:36:30,000 --> 01:36:32,000
I don't think like kind of continuing that as well.

1288
01:36:32,000 --> 01:36:35,000
So the value of the validity of methods.

1289
01:36:35,000 --> 01:36:40,000
So I guess I'd like to explore that a bit further and I'm not mechanism through which.

1290
01:36:40,000 --> 01:36:43,000
That happens because you know, we brought up the last.

1291
01:36:43,000 --> 01:36:46,000
This is the first decision to be additional research surgeon.

1292
01:36:46,000 --> 01:36:51,000
The focus is on the methodology which we talked yes it should be.

1293
01:36:51,000 --> 01:36:53,000
Um.

1294
01:36:53,000 --> 01:36:59,000
How much direction on the methodology and questions answer more sessions.

1295
01:36:59,000 --> 01:37:04,000
Are we going to you guys going to be able to provide for us to fulfill that responsibility.

1296
01:37:04,000 --> 01:37:09,000
Yeah.

1297
01:37:09,000 --> 01:37:12,000
And the last recommendation.

1298
01:37:12,000 --> 01:37:13,000
I'm sorry.

1299
01:37:13,000 --> 01:37:20,000
I don't see any reason to strip this to the general fund.

1300
01:37:20,000 --> 01:37:26,000
So I don't know if that's implied here or not, but I guess any revenue.

1301
01:37:26,000 --> 01:37:30,000
I mean, I think the health care revenues are like a.

1302
01:37:30,000 --> 01:37:32,000
That's largely found out.

1303
01:37:32,000 --> 01:37:33,000
Yeah.

1304
01:37:33,000 --> 01:37:34,000
Yeah.

1305
01:37:34,000 --> 01:37:35,000
And he's certainly any tax.

1306
01:37:35,000 --> 01:37:36,000
Right.

1307
01:37:36,000 --> 01:37:37,000
It seems.

1308
01:37:37,000 --> 01:37:41,000
We should have a consistent knowledge.

1309
01:37:41,000 --> 01:37:46,000
I think I don't know if you are a chime in, but.

1310
01:37:46,000 --> 01:37:49,000
I think the general fund has a lot of our home rule taxes.

1311
01:37:49,000 --> 01:37:52,000
So kind of starting there.

1312
01:37:52,000 --> 01:37:56,000
I think with some of the thinking behind just name the general fund.

1313
01:37:56,000 --> 01:37:59,000
Don't think there are any taxes outside of the general.

1314
01:37:59,000 --> 01:38:00,000
Yeah.

1315
01:38:00,000 --> 01:38:01,000
Yeah.

1316
01:38:01,000 --> 01:38:04,000
There may be like on a special purpose fund.

1317
01:38:04,000 --> 01:38:09,000
But I can't think of anything significant.

1318
01:38:09,000 --> 01:38:14,000
Certainly not at the hospitals, right.

1319
01:38:14,000 --> 01:38:19,000
So that so it's limited to.

1320
01:38:19,000 --> 01:38:20,000
Taxes.

1321
01:38:20,000 --> 01:38:21,000
This.

1322
01:38:21,000 --> 01:38:22,000
This.

1323
01:38:22,000 --> 01:38:23,000
This limit.

1324
01:38:23,000 --> 01:38:24,000
Oh, okay.

1325
01:38:24,000 --> 01:38:25,000
It's limited to tax.

1326
01:38:25,000 --> 01:38:27,000
It's not talking about.

1327
01:38:27,000 --> 01:38:28,000
I guess fees.

1328
01:38:28,000 --> 01:38:29,000
Yeah.

1329
01:38:29,000 --> 01:38:30,000
And I.

1330
01:38:30,000 --> 01:38:31,000
That's what we're not.

1331
01:38:31,000 --> 01:38:32,000
Justice left out there.

1332
01:38:32,000 --> 01:38:33,000
Yeah.

1333
01:38:33,000 --> 01:38:34,000
And yeah.

1334
01:38:34,000 --> 01:38:36,000
Sometimes you do things to come out.

1335
01:38:36,000 --> 01:38:37,000
But.

1336
01:38:37,000 --> 01:38:38,000
That's fine.

1337
01:38:38,000 --> 01:38:39,000
If we want to restrict it.

1338
01:38:39,000 --> 01:38:40,000
We want to focus on.

1339
01:38:40,000 --> 01:38:42,000
So it's that makes sense.

1340
01:38:42,000 --> 01:38:43,000
Yeah.

1341
01:38:43,000 --> 01:38:44,000
Yeah.

1342
01:38:44,000 --> 01:38:46,000
I think that was the.

1343
01:38:46,000 --> 01:38:49,000
Our preference here.

1344
01:38:49,000 --> 01:38:50,000
The.

1345
01:38:50,000 --> 01:38:51,000
The.

1346
01:38:51,000 --> 01:38:52,000
The.

1347
01:38:52,000 --> 01:38:53,000
The.

1348
01:38:53,000 --> 01:38:55,000
So.

1349
01:38:55,000 --> 01:38:56,000
So.

1350
01:38:56,000 --> 01:38:57,000
The.

1351
01:38:57,000 --> 01:38:58,000
If you'll see.

1352
01:38:58,000 --> 01:38:59,000
Right.

1353
01:38:59,000 --> 01:39:01,000
It should be consistent with the cost of.

1354
01:39:01,000 --> 01:39:02,000
We're.

1355
01:39:02,000 --> 01:39:03,000
We need to.

1356
01:39:03,000 --> 01:39:05,000
I wish you to make sure cost.

1357
01:39:05,000 --> 01:39:06,000
I said.

1358
01:39:06,000 --> 01:39:08,000
And so that that's.

1359
01:39:08,000 --> 01:39:09,000
Yeah.

1360
01:39:09,000 --> 01:39:10,000
That's not.

1361
01:39:10,000 --> 01:39:11,000
Something.

1362
01:39:11,000 --> 01:39:12,000
It's for consideration.

1363
01:39:12,000 --> 01:39:13,000
Yeah.

1364
01:39:13,000 --> 01:39:14,000
Well, like the.

1365
01:39:14,000 --> 01:39:15,000
What we're doing.

1366
01:39:15,000 --> 01:39:16,000
What you're doing.

1367
01:39:16,000 --> 01:39:17,000
But the gambling.

1368
01:39:17,000 --> 01:39:18,000
The gambling.

1369
01:39:18,000 --> 01:39:19,000
A.

1370
01:39:19,000 --> 01:39:20,000
Stations.

1371
01:39:20,000 --> 01:39:21,000
That's.

1372
01:39:21,000 --> 01:39:23,000
I guess it's the tax.

1373
01:39:23,000 --> 01:39:25,000
And that's exactly what.

1374
01:39:25,000 --> 01:39:27,000
Separates attacks from a fee.

1375
01:39:27,000 --> 01:39:28,000
That point.

1376
01:39:28,000 --> 01:39:29,000
Right.

1377
01:39:29,000 --> 01:39:31,000
Yeah.

1378
01:39:31,000 --> 01:39:32,000
Yeah.

1379
01:39:32,000 --> 01:39:34,000
But okay.

1380
01:39:34,000 --> 01:39:35,000
Yeah.

1381
01:39:35,000 --> 01:39:36,000
Yeah.

1382
01:39:41,000 --> 01:39:43,000
And then this third.

1383
01:39:43,000 --> 01:39:47,000
Frequently Asian is to establish a protocol.

1384
01:39:47,000 --> 01:39:48,000
To evaluate.

1385
01:39:48,000 --> 01:39:50,000
New and alternative.

1386
01:39:50,000 --> 01:39:51,000
The federal government and services.

1387
01:39:51,000 --> 01:39:52,000
Okay.

1388
01:39:56,000 --> 01:39:58,000
Oh, I think that.

1389
01:39:58,000 --> 01:40:00,000
Do you.

1390
01:40:00,000 --> 01:40:02,000
But now.

1391
01:40:02,000 --> 01:40:03,000
Get this.

1392
01:40:03,000 --> 01:40:05,000
Thank you.

1393
01:40:05,000 --> 01:40:06,000
But I do.

1394
01:40:06,000 --> 01:40:08,000
But.

1395
01:40:08,000 --> 01:40:09,000
So.

1396
01:40:09,000 --> 01:40:11,000
And sorry.

1397
01:40:11,000 --> 01:40:17,560
methodology and the role that we're supposed to have is a legal consideration or an implementation

1398
01:40:17,560 --> 01:40:24,120
feasibility considered more policy or methodology, so I would like to clear understand

1399
01:40:24,120 --> 01:40:28,800
that the expectations that you guys would have of me.

1400
01:40:28,800 --> 01:40:38,800
Okay, I agree, oh, yeah.

1401
01:40:38,800 --> 01:40:46,800
And so just after longer secrets, you know, there's a kind of a company in a group of

1402
01:40:46,800 --> 01:40:52,800
30s recommendations, you know, who also include, kind of like deliver the timelines for

1403
01:40:52,800 --> 01:41:00,800
these three items, and that will get submitted to the board, September.

1404
01:41:00,800 --> 01:41:06,480
So we'll, you know, we'll be working to draft this work and, I mean, weeks and, you know,

1405
01:41:06,480 --> 01:41:13,920
wouldn't want it back to incorporate that into the report, so that we can, yeah, I have

1406
01:41:13,920 --> 01:41:17,800
make sure there's clear guidance and direction that you guys are going to see forward.

1407
01:41:17,800 --> 01:41:19,800
That's good.

1408
01:41:19,800 --> 01:41:27,800
And then meeting calendar just some of the upcoming key to have another one next month on the

1409
01:41:27,800 --> 01:41:29,800
26th.

1410
01:41:29,800 --> 01:41:39,800
And then we're, I have a break until October, we'll be presenting the next long term forecast and the executive

1411
01:41:39,800 --> 01:41:43,800
recommendation for 2027.

1412
01:41:43,800 --> 01:41:49,800
So I'm wondering if we can move the meeting on the 26th book, because I'm teaching on Wednesday nights now,

1413
01:41:49,800 --> 01:41:57,800
and the October one as well as on a Wednesday night, so I wouldn't be able to attend either of those.

1414
01:41:57,800 --> 01:41:59,800
Yeah, we could talk after this.

1415
01:41:59,800 --> 01:42:02,800
Let's see if there's a better date.

1416
01:42:02,800 --> 01:42:08,800
I'd like to see if we could all.

1417
01:42:09,800 --> 01:42:11,800
Okay, if you have a.

1418
01:42:11,800 --> 01:42:12,800
Okay, that's better.

1419
01:42:12,800 --> 01:42:14,800
So I'm going to check my calendar.

1420
01:42:14,800 --> 01:42:16,800
I think any other day.

1421
01:42:16,800 --> 01:42:18,800
Okay.

1422
01:42:18,800 --> 01:42:20,800
Okay.

1423
01:42:20,800 --> 01:42:22,800
Well, if you all have a chance.

1424
01:42:22,800 --> 01:42:23,800
Okay.

1425
01:42:23,800 --> 01:42:24,800
Okay.

1426
01:42:27,800 --> 01:42:32,800
But the chair that concludes our presentation.

1427
01:42:32,800 --> 01:42:34,800
Please.

1428
01:42:34,800 --> 01:42:38,800
The next item on the agenda is public comment for what we do.

1429
01:42:38,800 --> 01:42:42,800
We have any public speakers.

1430
01:42:42,800 --> 01:42:49,800
No, we do not have any registered public speakers.

1431
01:42:49,800 --> 01:42:50,800
Okay.

1432
01:42:50,800 --> 01:42:52,800
What do we have any.

1433
01:42:52,800 --> 01:42:55,800
Public speakers work to start an virtual chat box.

1434
01:42:55,800 --> 01:42:56,800
There.

1435
01:42:56,800 --> 01:42:59,800
We have no registered public speakers in the chat box.

1436
01:43:00,800 --> 01:43:02,800
The next item on the agenda is a tournament.

1437
01:43:02,800 --> 01:43:05,800
Is there a motion to jump?

1438
01:43:05,800 --> 01:43:07,800
I'll make the motion to adjourn.

1439
01:43:07,800 --> 01:43:09,800
Is there a second?

1440
01:43:09,800 --> 01:43:10,800
Okay.

1441
01:43:10,800 --> 01:43:11,800
Great.

1442
01:43:11,800 --> 01:43:14,800
The motion to adjourn has been moved by commissioner.

1443
01:43:14,800 --> 01:43:17,800
Our bevel and second by commissioner.

1444
01:43:18,800 --> 01:43:27,800
All those in favor, sign of the chair.

1445
01:43:27,800 --> 01:43:29,800
The eyes have it.

1446
01:43:29,800 --> 01:43:30,800
The meeting is adjourned.

1447
01:43:30,800 --> 01:43:31,800
The next meeting.

1448
01:43:31,800 --> 01:43:33,800
We will be.

1449
01:43:33,800 --> 01:43:35,800
Wednesday, August 26.

1450
01:43:35,800 --> 01:43:37,800
Twenty three six.

1451
01:43:37,800 --> 01:43:38,800
Two six.