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It's just after 10:00.

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Glad you all found the place.

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This is definitely

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fancier digs than we're used to.

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Um

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Well, let's get Let's get started. Um I

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see we've got a number of folks online

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as well and uh we've got a pretty full

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agenda here, so

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um

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the the primary things that we we want

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to try to accomplish in today's meeting

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um we've got two different things that

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um that we've been working on over the

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last year. Want to try to move those

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forward. One is the protocol for

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calculating salinity um that Christine's

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been working on for quite a while and um

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so hoping that can move forward and then

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also we have the long-term salinity management plan

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that's a draft and talk about that and

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see if that's something ready that's

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move to move forward to and and then

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also we we have our our typical updates

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on conditions at the lake and talking

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about the where we are with salinity and

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um and if and where we want to go with

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that. So

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lots of things to cover. Anything else

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anybody wants to add

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to the agenda? Uh Jeff, I'd like to have

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a little bit of a discussion just about

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um

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perhaps thresholds, things that we we

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may want to consider this uh summer or

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spring as we consider if we need to

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alter the berm or just anything else

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that we need to think Okay, fantastic.

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Will do.

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All right, so let's let's just start

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with introductions. I guess

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we all have a microphone. That's

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different than normal, so please all you

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have to do is hit the button and then

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we'll pass a microphone around the back

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as well um for those folks. Um I'm Jeff

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Den Blakeer with Jacobs um facilitating

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the Salinity Advisory Committee.

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I'm Angela Gong with Forestry, Fire, and

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State Lands.

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Phil Brown, Great Salt Lake Brine Shrimp

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Cooperative.

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Thomas Bosteels, Great Salt Lake Brine

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Shrimp Cooperative.

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Elliot Jagnecki, Utah Geological Survey.

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Andrew Rupke, Utah Geological Survey.

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Joe Havassey, Compass Minerals.

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Mike Freeman, USGS.

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Christine Ramsey, USGS.

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Kyle Stone, Wildlife Resources.

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Ben Starman, Forestry, Fire, and State

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Lands.

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Emma Whitaker, Forestry, Fire, and State

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Lands.

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Travis Anderson, Morton Salt.

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Jake Alexander, Forestry, Fire, and

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State Lands.

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Ryan Doughty, Cargill Salt.

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Lynn de Freitas, Friends of Great Salt

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Lake.

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Laura Vernon, Water Resources.

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Great. Well, thank you. Oh, and then

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online,

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um we have a number of folks as well. Um

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see, Leila Madie with Water Resources,

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um Jim Harris with the Division of Water

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Quality.

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Jory Kirk Corkery and Bonnie

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Just got a lot of feedback here. Oh,

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there we go. Thank you, whoever fixed

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that. Um and Bonnie Baxter from

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Westminster.

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Uh Rob Dubuc with Friends and Bill

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Johnson at the University of Utah.

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Did I miss anybody?

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I don't know if we have an open

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microphone or I guess we'll figure it

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out.

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All right.

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So, this first part of the agenda, what

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we want to Oh, I actually let me back

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up. Um we sent out a meeting summary. We

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last met in October.

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Um sent that out back in February and

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now hopefully you had a chance to review

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that. I wanted to just if anybody had

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any comments or changes that they wanted

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to make to that that summary.

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And if not, if you have um

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entertain a motion to approve approve

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those that summary.

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Thank you, Thomas. And a second?

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And Kyle, thank you.

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All those um in favor of approving them,

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say I.

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Any opposed?

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Any further discussion?

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Oh, Bonnie says I as well. Thank you.

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Um so they're approved unanimously.

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So the first thing I wanted to do um is

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just go through some updates.

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Um Christine has agreed again to give us

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an update on on lake conditions.

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Good morning, everybody. I made it here

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um

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to give you an update. And we will talk

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about Mike Freeman's here. Has everybody

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met Mike in very another places? Mike is

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our field office chief for uh Salt Lake

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City office. So he coordinates a lot of

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our stream gagers um that work locally

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and knows a lot about the lake. He has a

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ton of experience on the lake. So

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excited to have him here today.

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He's going to present what Ryan usually

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does on lake elevation, stream flow

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updates, and then I'll I'll jump in with

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the salinity update, and then I think

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that's it for this first segment, so.

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Sure.

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Okay, so this is

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the Salt Air gauge, so this is South

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Arm. The daily value last Friday was

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4192.4.

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Our seasonal low occurred in like

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October at 4191.

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We've came up about 1.4 ft since that

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seasonal low. Looking at the hydrograph,

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I think we're maybe peaked for the year,

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maybe like

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March 22nd is when I think we kind of

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have the peak. We'll see how it kind of

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shakes out the next little bit.

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But I don't think it's going to go up

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that much. It might just kind of level

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out. This is the North Arm, so this is

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at the Saline gauge.

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Daily value last Friday was 4191.5.

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Seasonal low is in October-December. We

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kind of flattened out at 4190.7.

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We're up about 8/10 of a foot. And the

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difference right now between the North

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Arm and South Arm is about 9/10 of a

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foot.

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And that is probably

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that might come up just a little bit

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more as we get more

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discharge through the the new breach.

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Here's some of the the major inflows,

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and this is kind of just a cumulative

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discharge plot of kind of how conditions

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vary over the course of the period of

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record. So this is the Corrine gauge, so

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you can see we're kind of in that

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much

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below normal right now,

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I guess below normal, so kind of in that

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10 to 25% range. Black line is a current

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hydrograph.

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If we look at the Weber River near Plain

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City, we're getting in that much below,

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so kind of that 5 to 10% um really low

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conditions on on the Weber River right

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now, at least lower down.

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Um Farmington Bay, it's been actually

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um

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kind of in that normal condition. Uh I

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think the rain has really we've kind of

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noticed some pretty elevated base flows.

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You can even see in uh when we had that

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record October, we were really high,

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kind of

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seasonal highs. And um the the rain in

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March also kind of had a nice long

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gradual

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um

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sustained flow, but it's starting to

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drop pretty quick.

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And then lastly, the Goggin Drain, it's

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kind of up in that normal condition.

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This is basically I I've kind of changed

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the operations of the Surplus Canal, so

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that's why it is up a little higher

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right now.

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Um

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but again, the Surplus is also kind of

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flowing quite well, probably due to

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low elevation rain that we've had, so.

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Um here's some of the new breach flows,

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so um we measure every month. Um there

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was no measurements in October and

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November due to the the government

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furlough. Um our most recent

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measurements here on December, January,

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February, March, so you can see that

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kind of came up in January. Flows have

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been kind of just hovering around that

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five six five 600 to 700 cfs.

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If we look at the north to south flow,

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um again, no measurements in October,

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November, but we have very little flows

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kind of

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sneaking past that um

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the breach there with the berm, so quite

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low flows.

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00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,800
Um this is the the um

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00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,440
topography of the of the um the berm.

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00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,200
You can see that the low point from the

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most recent survey has a an elevation of

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4186

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um and there's been some pretty

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substantial erosion

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um especially on that right side of the east side of the berm um

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probably due to

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00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,080
my guess is having been out there quite

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a bit wave action that kind of comes in

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with the north wind events. So, it kind

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of crashes in and kind of erodes that

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00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:05,030
berm.

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00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,240
Great Salt Lake at Lakeside. Um so, this

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is the far western breach, the old

232
00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,000
breach. Um

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00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,000
we have kind of some

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00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:16,920
we we we've been making discrete

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00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:18,560
measurements. Uh I'm going to talk a

236
00:10:18,560 --> 00:10:20,320
little bit about some of the problems we

237
00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,320
have at Lakeside, but most of the water

238
00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:23,600
now is coming from the Newfoundland

239
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,480
basin and so, we had a pretty

240
00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:29,720
wet March or beginning of March anyway

241
00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,280
and we saw quite a bit of um elevated

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flows. We measured 151 cfs going through

243
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:36,800
the Lakeside breach. So, that's north to

244
00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,640
south flow and it's pretty much stayed

245
00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,200
north to south flow due to the low

246
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,360
elevation of of um

247
00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,360
the south arm of the Great Salt Lake.

248
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,080
So, just to kind of I I think I've

249
00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,040
presented on this before like maybe a

250
00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:51,600
year or two ago,

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00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,400
but um we get these pretty heavy precip

252
00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:55,520
events that occur out in the

253
00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,160
Newfoundland basin and then it kind of

254
00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,520
goes across where those blue arrows are

255
00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:00,680
pointing

256
00:11:00,680 --> 00:11:02,720
and we get these large sediment

257
00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,080
deposition events that actually occur in

258
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,360
our um in the Lakeside gauge pool and we

259
00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,000
typically see these in the winter and

260
00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,120
the fall when the lake elevation is

261
00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,600
really low and you don't have the kind

262
00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,560
of the south arm of to push that water

263
00:11:16,560 --> 00:11:19,550
to the north.

264
00:11:19,560 --> 00:11:20,760
Um

265
00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,360
we'll see if these work, but this is

266
00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,880
kind of the flows that we were observing

267
00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,800
when we were out there

268
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:27,839
um

269
00:11:27,839 --> 00:11:30,600
on March uh 9th.

270
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,360
Um this is all this water is coming from

271
00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:35,520
the Newfoundland basin and then here's a

272
00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,880
Let's see if it goes to the other one.

273
00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:39,160
Yep.

274
00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:44,030
Maybe.

275
00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:47,040
And then this is so this is looking

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00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:50,000
south like southwest and it kind of

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00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,000
pulls in and then this is where it kind

278
00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,280
of comes down this dike and all this

279
00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,840
water eventually makes its way over to

280
00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,160
the Lakeside gauge.

281
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:00,160
And oop.

282
00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,200
Here we go. And so

283
00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,080
it goes north across the railroad

284
00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,400
causeway and then it has a tendency to

285
00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:08,120
kind of dive

286
00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,800
south again and the water

287
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:12,560
kind of splits. Some of that goes into

288
00:12:12,560 --> 00:12:13,800
the north arm and some of it goes into

289
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,120
the south arm. Um, when it goes into the

290
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:19,080
south arm of the lake and past the the

291
00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,320
Lakeside gauge it creates

292
00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,760
it brings a lot of sediment and um,

293
00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,520
we've had issues with this since 2016

294
00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,320
when the lake got below 4193

295
00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:31,680
and what that does is from a gauging

296
00:12:31,680 --> 00:12:34,320
standpoint is it deposits all the

297
00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,160
sediment and it seems like we've also

298
00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:37,400
now started to collect a bunch of

299
00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:41,800
tumbleweeds and so this is a problem for

300
00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:46,070
us because our I think I oop.

301
00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:47,880
Our um,

302
00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,080
velocity sensor there's a little pole

303
00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,080
kind of on the bottom of the screen where you can see the pole

304
00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,560
sticking out. Our sensor goes just a

305
00:12:56,560 --> 00:12:59,160
little bit more

306
00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:01,200
streamward of that point right in the

307
00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:03,560
middle of those where all those um, kind

308
00:13:03,560 --> 00:13:05,600
of right here.

309
00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,440
And now you can see this is like full of

310
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,560
tumbleweeds and it's full of about 2 ft

311
00:13:10,560 --> 00:13:12,320
of sediment and so we're unable to put

312
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,640
our velocity sensor in there to actually

313
00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:19,520
measure flow in a real-time aspect. Um,

314
00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:21,200
due to the low lake levels I think we're

315
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,160
going to see very little scour as the

316
00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:24,640
north I don't think the north arm is or

317
00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:26,839
the south arm is going to get above 4193

318
00:13:26,839 --> 00:13:28,360
where we typically see those flows that

319
00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,240
scour that sediment out. So, this could

320
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,560
be a problem for gauging um at the

321
00:13:34,560 --> 00:13:40,120
Lakeside gauge for USGS with this these this sediment there.

322
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,720
Um one of the things that I I believe

323
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:44,800
maybe Jeff mentioned this at a previous

324
00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,840
meeting is we've talked about solutions

325
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,640
of how we can maybe try to improve this this condition.

326
00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,560
Um you know, possibly a a a jetty that

327
00:13:53,560 --> 00:13:55,240
would push the water all to the north

328
00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:56,840
arm of the Great Salt Lake. This would

329
00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:59,400
reduce the the sedimentation in the

330
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,040
Lakeside gauge

331
00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:03,320
um and then we could easily

332
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,920
report accurate flow um

333
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,040
south to north. Um but that is a water

334
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,120
source that is you know, then just

335
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:13,840
pushed to the to the north the north arm

336
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:14,960
of the Great Salt Lake rather than the

337
00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,280
south. Um

338
00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,120
but it would improve our gauging

339
00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:20,800
operations.

340
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:22,320
Uh

341
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,040
if people are interested in the the

342
00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:25,800
Newfoundland basin and how much water

343
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,040
that's contributing, um I think that

344
00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:29,680
there could be a potential gauging

345
00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,120
location

346
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:33,280
um kind of right there on the south side

347
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,920
of the causeway at that pinch point. And

348
00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,160
um we could measure the flow, but it

349
00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,120
this would be if the jetty was put in

350
00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:42,360
place, then it would all go to the like

351
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:43,600
kind of the north arm rather than the

352
00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,760
south arm. But um

353
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,920
it just kind of

354
00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:50,680
looking for solutions to improve the

355
00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:52,880
gauging at the Lakeside gauge and maybe

356
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,000
somehow quantify flow coming in from the

357
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,720
Newfoundland basin, um but I guess

358
00:14:57,720 --> 00:14:59,800
having talked to Christine and Ryan in

359
00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:01,920
the past, they wanted to bring kind of

360
00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:03,839
this issue back to this group and and

361
00:15:03,839 --> 00:15:05,480
have people start thinking about it as

362
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:06,760
far as what we can do as far as

363
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,360
quantifying the source of water.

364
00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,440
Cuz essentially we can't we

365
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:12,800
right now we don't have continuous

366
00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,040
discharge at Lakeside. Correct.

367
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:16,839
>> export of you know, whatever goes to

368
00:15:16,839 --> 00:15:18,200
Lakeside breach, we really can't

369
00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:20,120
quantify that at this time. Do we Do you

370
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,360
what the salinity is of that water? It's

371
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:23,680
similar to

372
00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:25,280
Could you please repeat that with the

373
00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:32,750
microphone for those online?

374
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,440
Um I Okay, I'll repeat what I said,

375
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:35,920
which is basically we don't have

376
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:37,840
continuous measurements of discharge at

377
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:39,280
the Lakeside breach, so we can't

378
00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,920
quantify any exchange occurring there

379
00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:43,720
from south to north or that's really

380
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:45,120
coming from the Newfoundland basin other

381
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:46,440
than these discrete measurements. And

382
00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:47,920
then the question was what's the

383
00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,880
salinity of that water um from north to

384
00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:52,960
south from the Newfoundland basin. And

385
00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:54,440
did you Did you measure the density? I

386
00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,000
kind of forget what We did measure it. I

387
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:57,960
can look it up, Thomas. We did collect a

388
00:15:57,960 --> 00:15:59,240
sample

389
00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:00,920
and we recently collected like a full

390
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:02,720
sample for analysis. I We can get back

391
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,080
to you on that. We We should be able to

392
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,200
figure that out. Um and in the past

393
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:07,960
we've measured, I think it was that did

394
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:09,440
that time we were out, it was like

395
00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,760
around I think 80,000 microsiemens per

396
00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:13,320
centimeter, so that's like half of what

397
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:14,600
the South Arm would be in terms of

398
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,520
salinity. But we're quantifying the

399
00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,800
chemistry of it um as well as the

400
00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,000
salinity, so. From a mineral standpoint

401
00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:22,320
historically,

402
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,440
that water looks a lot like South Arm.

403
00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,080
Right. Yeah, okay. Uh cuz you're getting

404
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,120
uh daylight of of shallow ground water.

405
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:30,600
Um

406
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:31,800
>> Um that

407
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:39,000
it kind of runs up against the other the causeway um essentially and then it daylights in that in that trench.

408
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:40,280
Okay.

409
00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:41,720
Good to know.

410
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,560
The Just to point out that the plot on

411
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,320
the screen, the green is actually

412
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,600
measured um

413
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,600
measured discharge in a continuous

414
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,040
standpoint, so we're measuring every 15

415
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,720
minutes using a velocity sensor. The the

416
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,320
red is actually just estimated flow

417
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,480
based off of our discrete measurements

418
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:06,560
that we make and kind of looking at the water level at the Lakeside gauge,

419
00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:08,760
but the reason the data is estimated is

420
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:10,240
because we can't put that velocity

421
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,240
sensor in because of the sedimentation

422
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:13,400
problem.

423
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,480
Um we have left it in in the past. It

424
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,400
was buried by 3 ft of sediment and it

425
00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,439
took it over a year to daylight.

426
00:17:20,439 --> 00:17:23,240
Um so, what we've been doing in a

427
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,520
similar to this condition in 2025 is we

428
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,560
pull it out so it doesn't get buried,

429
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:29,920
and then we wait for the lake to come

430
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:31,520
up. And when the lake gets comes up to

431
00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,480
4193, we then

432
00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,680
basically put our sensor out on kind of

433
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,400
a floating

434
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,640
system that kind of rides the sediment

435
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,840
as it as it scours. So, that's kind of

436
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:43,080
how we've been doing it in the past.

437
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:44,560
That has seemed to work well. We haven't

438
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:46,480
lost our instrumentation,

439
00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,400
but um it does provide a discrete kind

440
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,160
of estimated unreliable record.

441
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:53,280
So,

442
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:54,800
Mike, um

443
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:56,320
when you were doing this, I mean,

444
00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:57,600
obviously, you had some maps up there

445
00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,000
that kind of was showing where this is

446
00:17:59,000 --> 00:17:59,600
coming from.

447
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,080
>> Mhm. Um

448
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,480
it's my understanding that there's some

449
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:04,080
uh

450
00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:06,000
topographic features that are kind of

451
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,000
prohibiting water from necessarily

452
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,840
flowing from the entire basin uh back to

453
00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,800
the lake. Is some of this groundwater

454
00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:15,720
that's coming back in um to those low

455
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:16,880
spots? Cuz it kind of looked like it was

456
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,120
like, you know, in the canal there. Do

457
00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:21,000
you have any thoughts on

458
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:25,360
Are you looking at um

459
00:18:25,360 --> 00:18:26,680
this one? Is this the one you're kind of

460
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,000
talking about? Yep. Cuz every that there

461
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:30,840
is like that's everything to the north

462
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:32,640
of the train tracks, right? Right.

463
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:33,800
So, it's north of the train

464
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:35,280
tracks, but it kind of comes down. You

465
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:36,680
can see the arrows are kind of pointing,

466
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,480
and then it fans out. There's almost

467
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,240
like a delta there that some of the

468
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,120
water goes to the north, but the low

469
00:18:42,120 --> 00:18:45,080
point is actually south where most of

470
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:46,800
the water does go.

471
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,680
>> we uh we had done a

472
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,360
uh a study internally with uh UGS helped

473
00:18:52,360 --> 00:18:54,720
out with some ET data, and they'd

474
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,240
estimated that there could be upwards of

475
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,080
60,000 acre-feet evaporating out of the

476
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,360
basin each year. And so, there's uh this

477
00:19:01,360 --> 00:19:03,840
60,000 acre-feet that could be uh

478
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,640
evaporating. That that would be on like

479
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,160
a a bigger year. There's, you know,

480
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:08,560
small years it could be, you know,

481
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,200
10,000 acre-feet. I If anybody's

482
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,480
interested, we can send you the um up

483
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,600
the Utah State Water Research Lab did

484
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,560
the study and then Mark Hadwin

485
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,040
right is that the right name? Mark

486
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:21,840
Hadwin, okay. Thank you.

487
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:23,920
Ran the ET data, but anyway, the idea is

488
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,080
that there may be some way to influence

489
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,120
the flows to

490
00:19:28,120 --> 00:19:30,160
you know, get it to the lake rather than

491
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,480
let it just simply evaporate with maybe

492
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,200
little to no harm to the you know, to

493
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:37,720
the basin. I mean, I think there's other

494
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,360
things we need to think about like

495
00:19:39,360 --> 00:19:41,200
scouring of salts and whether there's

496
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,320
any wildlife that uses that, but I think

497
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,080
the initial glance is that there's

498
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,080
likely not a lot prohibiting us from

499
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:48,720
doing something like that and getting a

500
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,640
real return on that water.

501
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,240
But one thing that folks have talked

502
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,400
about is you know, that

503
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:56,720
perhaps some of that is infiltrating

504
00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,160
into the ground. I'm just curious if you

505
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,080
think any of this could be connected to

506
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,360
groundwater movement that is helping

507
00:20:02,360 --> 00:20:03,600
with those flows or if that's all

508
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:05,240
surface runoff just from the north side

509
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:07,200
of the tracks. I think we'll see some of

510
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:11,280
the groundwater this time of year when or

511
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,040
earlier I guess maybe more in the winter

512
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,400
we'll see some some flows coming in, but

513
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,520
generally we see the biggest flows after

514
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,680
big rain events and

515
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:21,920
in 2017 there was a rain on snow event

516
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,440
that actually

517
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:24,920
I think the railroad had quite a bit of

518
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,360
damage to the Lucin

519
00:20:27,360 --> 00:20:30,040
bridge and I think we had that was our

520
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,480
biggest deposition event and so kind of

521
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,040
rain rain on snow is generally what I've

522
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:36,800
observed when I've been out there, but

523
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:37,960
I'm sure there is groundwater that's

524
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,640
coming in especially now. I mean, it's

525
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,440
been really dry and we haven't had a lot

526
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,320
of rain, but I think it's probably still

527
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,600
slowly making it through the system.

528
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,160
It'd be really interesting. I think one

529
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,280
of the thoughts that we had

530
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,360
you know, on the return into the lake if

531
00:20:52,360 --> 00:20:54,040
we were ever to complete a project like

532
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,480
this is that there could be some type of

533
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:58,400
control structure that could be involved

534
00:20:58,400 --> 00:20:59,760
where we could

535
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,720
either choose to send it to the South

536
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,280
Arm or the North Arm depending on what

537
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,520
our goals are with salinity and lake

538
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,560
levels and you know, everything else. I

539
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:08,600
think we could achieve different

540
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,120
management objectives, but I think it'd

541
00:21:10,120 --> 00:21:12,320
be really interesting to get a

542
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,200
like you said you're doing, but get the

543
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,560
results of that characterization of the

544
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,360
chemistry of that water, so we could

545
00:21:18,360 --> 00:21:20,400
kind of understand what opportunities

546
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,040
exist.

547
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,560
I think most of the sediment is coming

548
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,680
kind of right north of the lakeside um

549
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,680
bridge. It seems like it kind of comes

550
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:32,560
through an old canal and then it hits

551
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:36,040
that playa and I feel like that's where

552
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:37,640
it's picking up most of the the

553
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,120
sediment. You have a lot of kind of

554
00:21:40,120 --> 00:21:41,920
loose

555
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,160
oolitic sands that are available that

556
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,600
are on the surface in that area.

557
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,240
It's probably that.

558
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,720
There is a bunch of clay on the delta in

559
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,080
front too.

560
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:53,240
Oh.

561
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,000
Okay.

562
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,600
All right.

563
00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:58,520
That's your findings, so

564
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,760
Okay.

565
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,080
Anyway, I

566
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,320
it's it has presented quite a challenge

567
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,920
for the the gauge there, so just so

568
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:11,310
people are aware.

569
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,360
Any other thoughts on that stuff or I'll

570
00:22:13,360 --> 00:22:16,080
move on to salinity?

571
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:17,840
Okay, let's move on.

572
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,920
Um okay. Thinking about salinity in the

573
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,280
South Arm, here's the plot of salinity

574
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,920
from about the fall of 2022 our high

575
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,760
salinity condition to present. Uh our

576
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,240
most recent salinities were measured on

577
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,160
March 4th and they ranged from 112 g per

578
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,280
liter to 118 g per liter at the surface.

579
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,520
Our site 2267, which is really close to

580
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,280
the bear north of Fremont Island, is our

581
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,280
freshest as we usually see.

582
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,640
And we are seeing some a little bit of

583
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:46,520
um heterogeneity in the water column

584
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,800
where it our site in Carrington Bay and

585
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,400
this 2267 we're seeing fresher

586
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,360
conditions at half a meter below surface

587
00:22:52,360 --> 00:22:53,160
as

588
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,200
uh relative to our measurements at 3 m

589
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:56,520
deep or at

590
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,320
2 to 3 m deep.

591
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,400
And this plot just uh illustrates, you

592
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:02,800
know, how we've been on a gradual

593
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,280
decline relative to this time last year

594
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,640
we're anywhere from 5 to 10 g per liter

595
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,360
higher, so a little bit higher than we

596
00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:12,120
were last spring. And as Mike said, uh

597
00:23:12,120 --> 00:23:13,880
we may have peaked in the South Arm, so

598
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,880
these may be approximately the the

599
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,200
spring low salinities we observe.

600
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,680
Relative to last fall um in Carrington

601
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:23,480
or sorry, yeah, in Carrington Bay at our

602
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,920
site 2565 we are 13 g per liter fresher

603
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,280
and at from relative to our site in uh

604
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,200
Gil Gilbert Bay 3510 we're 8 g per liter

605
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,000
fresher than we were last fall. So just

606
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:35,720
to give you an idea of the the change

607
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,680
we've seen seasonally. In the context of

608
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,200
our historical record back to 2010, you

609
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,200
can see we're, you know, really hovering

610
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,720
around this 120 the low range of the low

611
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,680
end of our 120 to 160 g per liter um

612
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,000
kind of optimal range that's been

613
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,160
identified. These conditions are similar

614
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,960
to what we've seen in 2020, 2013, so um

615
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:57,520
you know, it's a

616
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,280
you know,

617
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,000
we've seen it before.

618
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:02,640
Uh other recent salinities we've

619
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:04,600
measured uh outside of the South Arm are

620
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,320
at the new breach, so well it's still

621
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,400
the South Arm, but 118 g per liter.

622
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:10,360
And then at Saltair we have a

623
00:24:10,360 --> 00:24:12,440
measurement as recent as last week on

624
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,840
the March 26th that was 117 g per liter.

625
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,120
So that's where we're sitting right now.

626
00:24:18,120 --> 00:24:20,920
Um I've started computing our volume

627
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,400
weighted salinities uh at the request of

628
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,800
Jeff, so on the left looking at our what

629
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,360
we call the upper brine layer volume

630
00:24:27,360 --> 00:24:29,520
weighted salinity. This is considering

631
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,720
the top 4 m of the South Arm uh both in

632
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,800
Carrington Bay and Gilbert Bay. That uh

633
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,680
value is 118 g per liter. And then if we

634
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,640
consider the full depth volume weighted,

635
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,120
which goes to the bottom of the lake

636
00:24:42,120 --> 00:24:43,400
bottom bottom of the bottom of the South

637
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,040
Arm, we're looking at 119 g per liter.

638
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,720
Very similar as we're not seeing a lot

639
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,470
of variability in the water column.

640
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:52,640
Um looking at these values in the

641
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,040
context of our salt mass as well as our

642
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,920
elevation, um that kind of line is

643
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,200
pointing to our most recent measurement

644
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,360
and uh the mass we have at the at that

645
00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:06,080
time was an estimated 874

646
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,040
million tons. So, again, we're kind of

647
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,160
at this uh that low end of the 120 to

648
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:14,120
160 g per liter range and um not as low

649
00:25:14,120 --> 00:25:15,440
in terms of elevation as we've seen

650
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,760
before, but it sort of at the low low

651
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,240
end.

652
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,280
And then our salt mass, so this plot

653
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,160
shows salt mass South Arm salt mass in

654
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,560
millions of tons on the Y axis from the

655
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:27,480
time of our

656
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,480
uh historic low fall of 2022 to present

657
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,000
and you can kind of see we were hovering

658
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:33,880
around about a billion metric tons of

659
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:35,760
salt during that time during the fall of

660
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,840
2022 after berm modifications that

661
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,800
really set us up into uh kind of an

662
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,680
export paradigm where we were losing 134

663
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,720
million tons per year

664
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,320
up until the point we started to see

665
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,280
backwater effects at the breach that was

666
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,200
observed by um Andy Carlson back August

667
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,640
September of 2024. Since that time we've

668
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,000
really kind of seen a step change in the

669
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,400
rate of loss of salts and uh more

670
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,760
recently like last year maybe last year

671
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,840
and a half we've seen the declines in

672
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:05,880
the South Arm of about 28 million tons

673
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,200
per year.

674
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,040
And I'll leave it there until we get to

675
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,000
the kind of spring forecast

676
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:20,950
section unless anyone has any questions.

677
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:25,590
Any So, no questions?

678
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,240
All right. Heard a click. Bill.

679
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:30,680
Yeah, just

680
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,000
Christine, could you go back to that

681
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,680
plot showing the lake elevation and

682
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:38,390
salinity data?

683
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:39,840
Yes.

684
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,360
Once I don't know why this is so difficult

685
00:26:42,360 --> 00:26:44,480
for me. Appreciate your patience.

686
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,000
Sh- sharing.

687
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:51,270
Okay. Hang on, Bill.

688
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,070
Okay, this one?

689
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:56,960
The one that actually shows the lake

690
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,440
elevation time series um with the

691
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,960
salinity values in the time series. Ah,

692
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,160
okay. I think a couple before that.

693
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,480
Yeah. The back to 2010 or back to last

694
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,440
year? Okay, you got it. There you go.

695
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,320
Yeah, the one with the most recent. Um

696
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:14,640
So,

697
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,440
our lake elevation isn't so so bad

698
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,830
now.

699
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,360
And I'm just trying to understand

700
00:27:24,360 --> 00:27:26,880
whether we as a group

701
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,680
can explain that,

702
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,400
you know, given the the climate aspect.

703
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:34,760
Is it

704
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:36,120
most

705
00:27:36,120 --> 00:27:38,680
What can we attribute this to? How much

706
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,520
of this is due, I guess,

707
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:41,720
Do we have a sense of how much of this

708
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,680
is due to the negotiated water returns

709
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:45,840
that have been coming through Farmington

710
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,390
Bay?

711
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:54,030
Has anybody kind of done that analysis?

712
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:55,600
You're Just to clarify, you're talking

713
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,240
about the water level?

714
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,470
Yeah.

715
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,520
Uh Bill, we haven't. USGS has not looked

716
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:07,430
at that. No.

717
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,720
Cuz you know, we haven't had great

718
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,160
runoff.

719
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,160
And yet we're not sitting too badly,

720
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,280
relatively speaking.

721
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:17,880
And I just would like to have a sense of

722
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,830
whether or not

723
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,400
what the magnitude of those negotiated

724
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,400
returns are

725
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,000
in that.

726
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:28,680
And it's okay if nobody has that sense.

727
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,080
I just That's something I think we

728
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,000
should get a handle on, but I'm not

729
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,560
quite sure how to do that. Um

730
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,360
but uh I just wanted to check and see if

731
00:28:36,360 --> 00:28:38,400
anybody had that on the top top of their

732
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:39,400
head.

733
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,800
It sounds like we don't at this point.

734
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:43,680
Th- This is Joe. I I I think that the

735
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,960
trust is is working to quantify

736
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,760
um you know, what's what's

737
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,280
been delivered

738
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:52,600
certainly you have you know what was

739
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,920
negotiated on on paper but you know the

740
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:56,680
actual measurements

741
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:58,280
to follow through with that

742
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,160
I do believe the trust in Marcel are

743
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,200
working on something like that.

744
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,160
Okay. All right, great. I just I just

745
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:06,000
wanted to

746
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:07,600
get a sense of that. Thank you.

747
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:08,880
All right, Bill and then this is Kyle

748
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,280
and then just another kind of anecdotal

749
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,040
accessory to this is we noticed water

750
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:17,880
temperature in the lake especially in

751
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,480
the South arm all of last summer was

752
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,000
kind of on the lower end than what we

753
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,240
would expect from our 30-year data set.

754
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,560
So I'm wondering if this has something

755
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,560
to do with that high runoff of 2023 and

756
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,680
then not losing it as quickly as we

757
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,200
would expect and so that's you know kind

758
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,560
of a saving grace that just for some

759
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,080
reason we weren't as hot this last

760
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,120
summer and so we're holding on to some

761
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,160
of that water that we were given in the

762
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,520
big runoff here.

763
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,600
So another thread to pull on for

764
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,720
somebody who wants to look at all this.

765
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,640
Never heard that one before Kyle. I like

766
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:53,640
that.

767
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,160
There's also for your information Bill

768
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,680
there's water rights has a accounting

769
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,240
tool on their distribution plan that

770
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:03,640
talks about

771
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,400
what the saved water or I guess

772
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,360
dedicated water on approved change

773
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:09,600
application

774
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,160
applications accounts for so you can

775
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:12,600
look at there and they have already done

776
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,080
this quantification. It doesn't get to

777
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,200
what you know Joe was talking about

778
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:17,160
which is

779
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:18,400
you know what water could have been

780
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,360
going there already versus new water but

781
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:28,030
it does give a little bit of an insight.

782
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:29,400
Great.

783
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,440
I I appreciate your optimism

784
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,440
and what you're seeing there.

785
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,600
I am

786
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,600
so last month's agenda we had

787
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,440
asked Jordan Clayton from NRCS to come

788
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,400
and give us a presentation.

789
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,040
Um and

790
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:47,560
I asked him specifically if he could

791
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,760
talk about how NRCS does their

792
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:51,880
forecasting. Um

793
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:53,880
and you know, what's their methodology

794
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,720
in developing

795
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,200
um an an estimate or forecast of what

796
00:30:58,200 --> 00:30:59,840
the spring runoff would be and what the

797
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,760
inflows to the lake and then how does he

798
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:04,640
how has he been getting to that his

799
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,880
forecast for the lake level um for the

800
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,120
summer.

801
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,040
And so he um unfortunately we had to

802
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:15,360
postpone our meeting and but we um but

803
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,200
he did send and then he couldn't make it

804
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:18,960
today. Um

805
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:24,040
his his final for forecast is comes out

806
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,000
first, I guess that's on the on

807
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,400
Wednesday. Um and so he's really busy

808
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,680
getting that done and finishing up with

809
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,520
some field work for that. So he wasn't

810
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,920
able to come, but I wanted to I thought

811
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:40,160
it was well worth highlighting some of his slides

812
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,000
um for you.

813
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,160
And so this is you know, just to preface

814
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,080
this, this is all Jordan's information.

815
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,480
Um but I thought I think there are is

816
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,400
some, you know, as we're looking at how

817
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,640
we forecast salinity for the year, I

818
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,000
thought this is some good background.

819
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,400
Because so much of this comes down to

820
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,720
how much water do we expect, um how high

821
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:03,480
do we expect the lake to come up this

822
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,160
year. Um and then that drives how we

823
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,400
think salinity salt might move through

824
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,160
the breach and um and the mass that we

825
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,320
have to work with.

826
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,440
So he had quite a few slides and I'm

827
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,720
going to um skip through a lot of them,

828
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,520
but um just in in terms of his

829
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,240
you know, just providing an overview, we

830
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,200
know the watershed is is large and I

831
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:31,080
think um I think what is impressive is

832
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,800
the number of snow tel sites and snow

833
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,320
courses that they monitor throughout the

834
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:37,440
basin.

835
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,240
Um so it's SNOTEL sites measuring the

836
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,200
meteorological information, how much

837
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,640
snow is falling. The snow courses where

838
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,800
they go up on snowmobiles um up to the

839
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,880
site and they're actually measuring um

840
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:52,840
the depth of the snow.

841
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,480
And so they've got um they feel like a a

842
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,480
really good representation

843
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:01,640
um across the basin looking at um as you

844
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,480
know high as well as medium elevation

845
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,560
sites, low elevation sites uh really to

846
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,800
help um forecast what the inflows or

847
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,080
what the available water supply is. And

848
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,760
this isn't just used and just recently

849
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:16,840
we've been using this to look at

850
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,560
forecasting the the lake level, but this

851
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,280
is the data set that's that water

852
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,080
suppliers are using and they plan most

853
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,400
of their reservoir operations on on

854
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:30,630
these types of forecasts.

855
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,000
So um here you can just see a

856
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,840
distribution of the of the SNOTEL sites

857
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,120
and stream gauging sites um all done in

858
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,200
cooperation with USGS.

859
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:43,480
Um

860
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,240
you know, in terms of um you know,

861
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,760
inflows where they've got measurements

862
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,480
um and then

863
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,280
uh there you can see the rep the areas

864
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,080
that are represented by their sites in

865
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,120
red.

866
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,280
Uh so in a lot of our mountain areas

867
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,840
they've got really good coverage

868
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,360
um for precipitation data, same same

869
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,440
type of thing. Really for trying to

870
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:09,320
forecast because our system is snow um

871
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,720
snowmelt dominated um they're really

872
00:34:11,720 --> 00:34:13,639
focusing on trying to understand what

873
00:34:13,639 --> 00:34:14,800
what's happening at those higher

874
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,639
elevations that hold our snow. This I

875
00:34:17,639 --> 00:34:20,240
thought this graph was was interesting

876
00:34:20,240 --> 00:34:22,120
just showing the distribution of where

877
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,639
they have SNOTEL sites um at different

878
00:34:24,639 --> 00:34:26,960
elevations. So you can see with the the

879
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,320
blue curve that's that's what I what I'm

880
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,520
referencing. All those triangles

881
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,560
represent their sites that they're

882
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,480
measuring. So we're not just measuring at high

883
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,000
elevations. We've we've got SNOTEL sites

884
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,840
throughout

885
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,990
all of the elevations.

886
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,480
Let's see. I touched on this. Um

887
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,159
you know, one thing he noted was that

888
00:34:50,159 --> 00:34:52,280
most of the precipitation falls between

889
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:56,040
7,000 and 9,000 ft. And and they really

890
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,480
don't feel like we're missing uh too

891
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,360
much information there. We can always

892
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,440
have more gauges, but for the most part

893
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:03,840
we've covered it.

894
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,480
Um current conditions, I think we all

895
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,400
know are not good. Um

896
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,240
Let's see. Comparison to

897
00:35:12,240 --> 00:35:14,920
I did take the liberty to add that

898
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,600
straight line in there. Um that was just

899
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:18,800
from

900
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,920
So what you see the dash lines, so he

901
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,360
was going to present this on February

902
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,440
26th. So his forecast then were based on

903
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:26,880
the information they had on February

904
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:30,840
1st. And um and so

905
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,840
you can go on to their website today,

906
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,760
and that's what I did this morning, and

907
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:36,360
you can get their current, you know,

908
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,480
where are we today based on SNOTEL data.

909
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:41,920
Um all of those dash lines you see there

910
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,040
are are forecasts or projections that

911
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,920
they can make um based on where we were

912
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,800
on February 26th. And you can see the

913
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,280
bottom one there is the minimum

914
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,320
projection, um which is even lower than

915
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,680
the 10% projection. Um and that black

916
00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,520
line you see going from upper left to

917
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:03,360
lower right, um there, this is where we

918
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:04,360
are

919
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,440
um today um in terms of our snow water

920
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:09,440
or

921
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,800
snow water equivalent measurements on um

922
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,240
at this um SNOTEL sites throughout the

923
00:36:15,240 --> 00:36:19,280
basin. So a lot can change between these

924
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,720
forecasts. Um that was this is data

925
00:36:21,720 --> 00:36:24,240
based on February 1st. Uh we should be

926
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:27,600
getting another update uh forecasts on

927
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,880
April 1st.

928
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:31,520
So, they're

929
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,880
constantly updating, trying to figure

930
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,280
out what's happening in in the basin.

931
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:37,800
I'm going to jump through a lot of

932
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,600
these. Um I think from a precipitation

933
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:44,040
standpoint, um at couple weeks ago at

934
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,320
the Utah Water Users Conference, uh

935
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,720
Jordan gave a presentation and just

936
00:36:48,720 --> 00:36:50,920
noted that overall our precipitation's

937
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,440
been pretty normal. Um what's different

938
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,480
is just the temperature paradigm that

939
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,480
we've been in where we just haven't seen

940
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,600
the snow accumulation and and now

941
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,880
especially we're seeing the snow melt

942
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,920
happening very quickly.

943
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:08,680
Um soil moisture has been above normal.

944
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,120
Um and I and and I believe what Jordan

945
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,880
had explained is just with more more

946
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:15,520
precipitation coming as rain, that's

947
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,560
really helped our soil moisture

948
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,920
um in in the watershed. But without the

949
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,520
snow, you know, typically a higher snow

950
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,400
or soil moisture helps with runoff

951
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,080
efficiency, meaning that more of that

952
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,480
snow comes into our streams and down to

953
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:30,640
the lake.

954
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,720
Um but without the snow, it's it's not

955
00:37:34,720 --> 00:37:38,320
helping our our over overall supply.

956
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,200
Um I think our air temperatures have

957
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,800
been above normal.

958
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:49,240
Um reservoirs are filling with what available snow we

959
00:37:49,240 --> 00:37:53,480
do have. Um but we're below where we

960
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,080
were last year.

961
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:56,680
Um so, you can see here as of February

962
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,800
1st, we're 68% capacity compared to 80%

963
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,360
the the previous year.

964
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,280
Um

965
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,960
Let's see. So, in terms of of Great Salt

966
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:08,800
Lake inflow and lake level rise

967
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:10,320
forecast,

968
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,560
um they are using these four primary

969
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:17,360
gauges, USGS gauges. And um

970
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:18,920
and what they're doing is they're taking

971
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:25,440
the they're estimating their the runoff volume um and and then

972
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,720
looking at where we are today or at the

973
00:38:27,720 --> 00:38:29,320
particular day in the lake and then

974
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,400
they're adding that volume to that to to

975
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:33,160
understand what's what's going to happen

976
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:34,840
to what the water level.

977
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,040
So that part I think is fairly

978
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:38,760
straightforward. I think a lot of the

979
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,720
magic happens in in forecasting how

980
00:38:41,720 --> 00:38:44,000
runoff how the snow's going to melt and

981
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,120
how that's going to translate into um

982
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,160
flow coming to the lake.

983
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:52,400
So they've got um a lot of data um from

984
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,880
prior years. I think one of the key

985
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:56,720
challenges that they have is that every

986
00:38:56,720 --> 00:39:00,960
year is different. Um they highlighted in

987
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:04,000
2023 we had the all-time highest

988
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:06,320
snowpack or snow water

989
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:10,200
um equivalent SWE. Um and then this year

990
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,320
we have the all-time low. So in just the

991
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,280
span of 3 years we've swung from an

992
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,720
all-time high to an all-time low.

993
00:39:16,720 --> 00:39:20,840
So that obviously it gives it adds to

994
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,880
the data set um but when we're operating

995
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,320
on the extremes it's really hard for

996
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:28,240
them to predict um what's going to

997
00:39:28,240 --> 00:39:30,640
happen.

998
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:32,280
So they they've got a number of

999
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:35,080
processes that they um that they're

1000
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,240
using with their with their forecast

1001
00:39:37,240 --> 00:39:39,480
modeling system. Uh they're using

1002
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,560
machine learning to constantly try to

1003
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:43,760
recalibrate the model to try to

1004
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,240
understand what's happening um and

1005
00:39:46,240 --> 00:39:48,080
really starting to work towards and

1006
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:49,400
they've got a number of methods that

1007
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,480
they use to to work towards using an

1008
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,920
ensemble or an average from those

1009
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,760
different um forecasts and then

1010
00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:59,920
reporting those values.

1011
00:39:59,920 --> 00:40:02,080
Um if you haven't been to their website

1012
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,960
it's amazing the information that that

1013
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:09,880
you have available um to look at. Um

1014
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:11,480
let's see.

1015
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,000
So they're combining what their modeling

1016
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:14,640
forecasts are but then they're also

1017
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,040
looking at um just doing some hand

1018
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:21,160
calculations, looking at um

1019
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,680
you know, what's the 50th um percentile

1020
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,480
exceedance value that they have and then

1021
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:31,040
adding and you can see here they in this case he looked at the February

1022
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,360
1st lake elevation uh what the volume of

1023
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,720
the water was in the lake at that time.

1024
00:40:36,720 --> 00:40:38,520
And one note is they don't account for

1025
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,080
the berm. Um they're assuming that the

1026
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,040
lake is at one level.

1027
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:49,400
And um but then they look at what's the lake level associated with the new

1028
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,280
volume accounting for the inflow

1029
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,200
forecast. And I think this is I

1030
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,760
and I think um Bill

1031
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:58,520
I think there is something to what you

1032
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,520
were observing because on February 1st

1033
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,560
the inflow forecast was only 290,000

1034
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:08,440
acre feet. Um which is horrible when you

1035
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:11,120
look at what we've typically see.

1036
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:17,720
Um and so by when they added that the forecast for the lake um we would

1037
00:41:17,720 --> 00:41:18,680
all

1038
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:20,000
um would have been

1039
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:21,560
um

1040
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,120
I think 4192.2.

1041
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:25,920
Um

1042
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:29,520
so on the website here and please stop

1043
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,360
me if you have questions. I'm blasting

1044
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,680
through this pretty quick. Um but

1045
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,520
typically what they're looking at is the

1046
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,000
in in um there's all kinds of these

1047
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,040
charts. You can look at every stream and

1048
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,200
see what their forecasts are.

1049
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:43,800
Um but then what they've done in the

1050
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,200
last 5 years is is they've added those

1051
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:47,600
all together to come up with the Great

1052
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,120
Salt Lake inflow.

1053
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,440
The number that I think is most useful

1054
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:52,800
is um

1055
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:54,360
in in the green right in the middle

1056
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:56,960
there 290,000

1057
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,880
acre feet of inflow.

1058
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,440
Um and then you can see the range that's

1059
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,040
the potential range um and it's a it's a

1060
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:06,840
very wide range.

1061
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:12,360
But it gives you kind of an idea of the uncertainty that's there.

1062
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,440
So when when he added that, I guess

1063
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:15,840
let's see

1064
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:17,960
I was wrong. The based on the February

1065
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:21,280
1st forecast, the the prediction was

1066
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:22,920
um

1067
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,520
Let's see, lake level rise.

1068
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:30,880
So, it it was 4190 um 191.8

1069
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,400
on February 1st. As of March 1st, which

1070
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,320
is what he's using here,

1071
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:37,960
um it was 4192.4.

1072
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,800
And what he reported at Utah water users

1073
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:44,240
2 weeks ago was that 4192.5.

1074
00:42:44,240 --> 00:42:45,120
Um

1075
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,280
And so, one of the reasons that's that

1076
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:49,760
it's coming up here

1077
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:51,200
is just

1078
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:52,760
um

1079
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,920
Let's see.

1080
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,000
And I'll I'll email this these slides to

1081
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,280
you so you can peruse them.

1082
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,080
Um but the the latest forecast that they

1083
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,960
have is that we'll have a um

1084
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,480
uh inflow about 325,000 acre feet. Um

1085
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,040
so, it's it's been coming up since over

1086
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:13,880
the last couple months.

1087
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:15,800
Um but one I think this slide is

1088
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:17,920
important in just noting that this does

1089
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,960
not account for management actions. So,

1090
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,080
on a on a poor year, I think

1091
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,000
historically, um water managers if if

1092
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:28,520
their reservoirs are low, they're going

1093
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:30,480
to store as much as they can to to get

1094
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:36,240
those reservoirs up to where they can get. Um if if they're already starting out

1095
00:43:36,240 --> 00:43:37,960
pretty full, then that they may actually

1096
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:39,680
dump water um

1097
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,680
at point to make room for a spring

1098
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,000
runoff. So, there's a lot of interplay

1099
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:48,240
there with um with water managers. And

1100
00:43:48,240 --> 00:43:50,320
um

1101
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:52,560
And you know, he notes here is lower

1102
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,560
than typical percent of variability is

1103
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:56,280
explained by the runoff models. There's

1104
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,080
poor correlation.

1105
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:00,680
Um but a lot of that is just due to a

1106
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:02,400
lot of the decisions water management

1107
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:03,680
decisions that are happening in the

1108
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,200
watershed. And so, we can try to

1109
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:10,480
calibrate models to USGS gauge data, Uh

1110
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:12,840
but just depending on what the needs

1111
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:14,680
are, those you know, water managers can

1112
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:16,960
change their reservoir operations to

1113
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:18,880
meet their needs and and then that can

1114
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,800
throw off our calibrations

1115
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:23,800
because it's not based on natural

1116
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:26,000
processes anymore. It's it's now we're

1117
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:27,160
trying to have we're having to

1118
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,160
incorporate

1119
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:35,040
management decisions as well. So that adds a lot to the uncertainty here.

1120
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:36,960
Um and then they don't account for

1121
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:39,520
evaporate evaporative losses

1122
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:42,400
um and really trying to just focus on

1123
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,280
the 50th percentile

1124
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:45,880
um

1125
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:47,600
when they're doing this.

1126
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:48,960
Let's see.

1127
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:52,190
Um

1128
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:53,760
So generally, you know, they're

1129
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:58,880
typically 75 to 80% accurate and I think

1130
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:01,160
a few years ago they they nailed the the

1131
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,400
lake level prediction and last year they

1132
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,920
were off a bit. Um but I think when when

1133
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,040
you consider the uncertainty that there

1134
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:12,480
is across the the board here,

1135
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:15,520
what they're doing is pretty remarkable.

1136
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:17,320
Um

1137
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:18,680
And so they're they're constantly

1138
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,680
working to try to make improvements. So

1139
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,680
here that's where the machine learning

1140
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:26,040
is a big thing that they're investing

1141
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,280
into to try to incorporate a lot more

1142
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,240
parameters into it to try to understand

1143
00:45:31,240 --> 00:45:34,000
what's really driving these systems.

1144
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,920
The longer the period, the better

1145
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:37,760
statistical representation that they can

1146
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,160
get. They've been adding new SNOTEL

1147
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,400
sites and and really trying to

1148
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,160
incorporate more parameters. So I think

1149
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:48,720
soil moisture is something that's

1150
00:45:48,720 --> 00:45:49,720
um

1151
00:45:49,720 --> 00:45:51,880
been I guess when I think about even my

1152
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,880
career relatively recent

1153
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,240
addition into the forecasting

1154
00:45:57,240 --> 00:45:59,520
that I think has made a big improvement

1155
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,040
in and their accuracy.

1156
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:03,680
But there's a lot more that they're that

1157
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:05,280
they're working on. And you can see

1158
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,760
here, I mean even dust impacts on the

1159
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,160
snow can affect how the snow

1160
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,480
melts. And those aren't things that we

1161
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,080
have in our in our snow melt models.

1162
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:15,960
Um

1163
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:17,480
so there's a lot of things that are

1164
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:22,110
moving here.

1165
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:26,160
So I think that is the gist of it. Um so

1166
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:28,920
there's there's about 50 slides here. So

1167
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:30,960
I'll I'll forward that this to you all

1168
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,160
and you can look through them. Um and

1169
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:34,680
Jordan's certainly open to answering

1170
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:37,840
questions. Um he but apologized for not

1171
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,760
being able to be here today. So

1172
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:42,960
I guess any questions

1173
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:43,920
that I

1174
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,120
almost hesitate to try to answer.

1175
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,200
I have an elementary question. Mhm.

1176
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:52,160
325,000

1177
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:54,280
estimate

1178
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,640
for a year.

1179
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:58,160
That's for spring runoff. That's for

1180
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:00,960
spring runoff. Yeah.

1181
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:02,000
Um

1182
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:03,400
And what

1183
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,160
Could we have that repeated for those

1184
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:06,800
online?

1185
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,310
Oh, can you I'm sorry.

1186
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:15,920
I'm asking about the period for the 325,000 acre foot

1187
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:18,080
inflow. Yeah. So that'll cover what

1188
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:21,280
January to July. July, okay.

1189
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:23,200
Yeah.

1190
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:26,360
So you can go to his their website and

1191
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,550
um

1192
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:30,960
Let's see.

1193
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:47,670
How did I get the answer here before? Um

1194
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:52,150
Oh, shoot. It's not coming.

1195
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,880
But um Oh, this is all the stream flows.

1196
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:55,800
Um

1197
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:56,560
but

1198
00:47:56,560 --> 00:48:00,640
this is where you can come to um

1199
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:02,160
to their website and you can get those

1200
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:06,520
graphs to find out exactly what their update is.

1201
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:08,840
Um,

1202
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:09,720
Oh,

1203
00:48:09,720 --> 00:48:11,760
I just had to scroll down. So, here's

1204
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:14,360
Great Salt Lake inflow. There's the 325

1205
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:15,680
value.

1206
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:16,360
Um,

1207
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:18,280
and then you can go through that's April

1208
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:21,320
to July is the forecast period.

1209
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:22,320
Um,

1210
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:26,000
and then you can go through every one of

1211
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,160
their gauges in the system

1212
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:31,160
to see what that means. Um, or how they

1213
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:35,070
get to that.

1214
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,160
But, when you consider 325,000

1215
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:40,200
acre-feet, that's you know, I think an

1216
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:44,280
average year was used to be 1 million.

1217
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:45,360
Um,

1218
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:51,160
you know, acre-feet, so it's not good. Um,

1219
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,960
and it's a really low year. Um,

1220
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,000
that said, I think you know, Bill, that

1221
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:57,560
the fact that we're getting more flow

1222
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,480
through the the Jordan River system

1223
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,800
um, is is a is a good note. Um, you

1224
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,160
know, is that because they are

1225
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:07,800
um, transferring some of those water

1226
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,080
supplies?

1227
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:11,280
Um, I don't

1228
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,360
I just drove past the Jordan River up by

1229
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:16,640
Utah Lake yesterday and it didn't I

1230
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:19,120
mean, the Jordan River was not flowing

1231
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:20,800
much at all. It was really low. So,

1232
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:22,480
they're not moving water from the Utah

1233
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:23,920
Lake system.

1234
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:25,040
So,

1235
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:26,040
you know,

1236
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:32,470
I don't know.

1237
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:34,200
All right.

1238
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:35,480
Um,

1239
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:37,360
so, any I guess any questions there?

1240
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,160
Else we'll move on.

1241
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:42,750
Um, yeah, Bill.

1242
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:44,800
Yeah, thank you, Jeff. Um,

1243
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:47,360
yeah, so I think most of that delivery

1244
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:48,800
from Utah Lake was occurring in the

1245
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:50,240
fall.

1246
00:49:50,240 --> 00:49:53,080
And I think it showed up actually in um,

1247
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:54,360
Christine's

1248
00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:55,040
um,

1249
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:56,720
you know image.

1250
00:49:56,720 --> 00:49:58,640
And so

1251
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,240
I guess the the the take home point is

1252
00:50:01,240 --> 00:50:04,200
that we're we're now about to face a

1253
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,800
period that is

1254
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:09,280
you know, going to be challenging. Mhm.

1255
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,880
And the water deliveries that have been

1256
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,440
negotiated, we'll see how much of that

1257
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,080
actually materializes in a stressed year

1258
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:19,200
like this year.

1259
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,440
Where the water shed demand is going to

1260
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,600
be you know, very much dictating what's

1261
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:25,440
available to bring into the lake

1262
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:27,920
relative to what's been negotiated.

1263
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:28,320
Right.

1264
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,280
>> Um so we're going to learn a lot this

1265
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:34,070
summer. Mhm.

1266
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:37,390
For sure.

1267
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:38,640
Um

1268
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:41,840
Great. Well, thank you. Um so Jim, did

1269
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:45,400
you have anything to update us with what

1270
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:49,360
you know, in terms of what DWQ is doing?

1271
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:52,800
Um I just have a brief update. Just um

1272
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:55,920
we're in the midst of reviewing um water

1273
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:57,600
lease proposed

1274
00:50:57,600 --> 00:51:00,200
um lithium extraction facility in the

1275
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:02,000
North Arm. And as you might recall, we

1276
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:03,840
had to develop some rules a couple of

1277
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:07,000
years ago that regulate um new

1278
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:11,920
extraction um operations. Uh they have to demonstrate that there's no

1279
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:13,920
negative impact to the biota or the

1280
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:15,840
chemistry of the lake. And so

1281
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:17,200
phased approach. The first phase

1282
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:18,640
happened last spring where they

1283
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:21,920
collected about 6 months worth of data

1284
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,400
and um rolled that into um

1285
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:26,880
certification application that we're

1286
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,680
reviewing right now. Um where they're

1287
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:31,240
kind of self-certifying that they're not

1288
00:51:31,240 --> 00:51:32,760
going to have an impact or negative

1289
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:34,200
impact.

1290
00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:35,640
And um we've been working with Four

1291
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:37,400
Seasons and Empire State Lands very

1292
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:39,520
closely on this and um should in the

1293
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:42,320
coming few weeks, couple of weeks have

1294
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,560
um some decisions made on on that, but

1295
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:45,800
we're still negotiating some of the

1296
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,520
details of that application.

1297
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:49,480
Uh keep in mind there will be an

1298
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,240
opportunity for public review and

1299
00:51:51,240 --> 00:51:53,760
comment. The next steps would be if

1300
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:56,400
approved that we would issue a discharge

1301
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:58,360
permit and then they'll have a public

1302
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:00,760
comment um period associated with that.

1303
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:03,120
So, uh look

1304
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:04,960
no promises, but look for something

1305
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:08,230
sometime this spring. So,

1306
00:52:08,240 --> 00:52:10,520
that's all I got for now. All right.

1307
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:11,920
Thank you.

1308
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:14,760
Yep. Any questions

1309
00:52:14,760 --> 00:52:16,600
for him?

1310
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:18,680
If not, Ben, you want to give us an

1311
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:21,720
update? Yeah. Uh so, a couple of couple

1312
00:52:21,720 --> 00:52:23,600
of things I think the last time we met

1313
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,760
was October. So, it's been pretty slow

1314
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:28,400
for us since then. We bought a factory

1315
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:29,240
and uh

1316
00:52:29,240 --> 00:52:31,040
it's that's that's been keeping us on

1317
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,480
our toes, but um as far as salinity is

1318
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,000
concerned, I think that's going to be

1319
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:36,400
something that I would love to you know

1320
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:37,760
discuss with

1321
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:39,240
um this group

1322
00:52:39,240 --> 00:52:41,160
you know, eventually. We're working with

1323
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,520
Cargill and um some of the other small

1324
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:44,760
operators to figure out, you know,

1325
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:46,040
exactly what that looks like to keep

1326
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:48,720
them, you know, going. Um but with that

1327
00:52:48,720 --> 00:52:49,600
they're not going to need the same

1328
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:51,720
amount of uh water

1329
00:52:51,720 --> 00:52:53,120
uh and then also they'll have a return

1330
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:54,760
flow and I think there's a an

1331
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:57,120
opportunity there to think about how we

1332
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,360
use salinity um that's accumulated in

1333
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:02,760
that pond to also buffer, you know, uh

1334
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:04,400
what we do between the breach and the

1335
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:06,000
north arm and then also how we restore

1336
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:07,720
that portion of

1337
00:53:07,720 --> 00:53:09,000
uh of the bay.

1338
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,160
So, a lot to come there and but right

1339
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:12,800
now we're kind of focused on dealing

1340
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,080
with the bank and how to let people come

1341
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:16,800
in and get their collateral and all of

1342
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,280
those issues. So, it's been a full-time

1343
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:20,960
job or seven

1344
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:23,120
um on top of what we're already doing.

1345
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:25,960
Um and then we are also still working on

1346
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,520
our uh comprehensive management plan and

1347
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:29,960
mineral leasing plan.

1348
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:31,600
Um Jacobs is helping us with those

1349
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:33,560
plans. We're making great progress and I

1350
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:36,200
think we'll have a draft out probably in

1351
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,680
the next

1352
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,200
Well, it'll be we're aiming for July for

1353
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:42,440
the public draft.

1354
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:44,600
>> Perfect. Um I know we have a few things

1355
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,560
we're reviewing now, but we're uh

1356
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:47,520
we're looking forward to getting that

1357
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:50,920
out so we can um move on on getting that

1358
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:52,920
plan finalized. There's some updates to

1359
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:54,680
the elevation matrix and some other

1360
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:56,680
things that um I think will be of

1361
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:58,360
interest for everyone. We're also

1362
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:00,600
working to finish this salinity

1363
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:02,280
management plan so we can reference that

1364
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,960
in this as well. And with that, I think

1365
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:06,160
Jeff will talk about it later, but I

1366
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:08,040
think we're thinking more about broad

1367
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:09,840
goals and not uh

1368
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:11,600
you know, when this happens, here's

1369
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:13,200
exactly what we do cuz we know that all

1370
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:15,560
these different dynamics um change and

1371
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:17,480
that's kind of how it is on Great Salt

1372
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:19,000
Lake cuz I think we uh

1373
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:20,240
we know what we know right now and then

1374
00:54:20,240 --> 00:54:21,640
next year we're going to know a hell of

1375
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:23,280
a lot more, hopefully.

1376
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:28,640
Um and then as far as the water leaf uh application goes, just like Jim said,

1377
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:30,600
we're making great progress on that. Um

1378
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:32,200
Jake, who's sitting there in the back,

1379
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:35,760
he's been doing the bulk of the work for our division and has done a a

1380
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:37,920
tremendous job uh coming through that

1381
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:39,080
combing through that with a fine-tooth

1382
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:41,760
comb. Um but we I think

1383
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:43,120
in coordination with water quality

1384
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,000
should have decisions here in the next

1385
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:46,800
few weeks.

1386
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,160
Um and then the last thing that I wanted

1387
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,960
to discuss was I I think I kind of piped

1388
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:53,960
up and said I wanted to add this to the

1389
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:55,200
um

1390
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:57,160
to the agenda, but I want to discuss

1391
00:54:57,160 --> 00:54:59,280
what and how we should be thinking about

1392
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:01,280
berm modifications this year, you know,

1393
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:03,600
if any. There was some legislation that

1394
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:05,200
happened in the special ses- session

1395
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:07,440
back in October that um kind of changed

1396
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:08,920
the dynamic of how we can consider

1397
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:10,240
modifying the berm. It allows us to

1398
00:55:10,240 --> 00:55:12,760
consider things besides salinity um such

1399
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,000
as like uh some examples would be you

1400
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:16,640
know, microbialite coverage. Like if we

1401
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:18,600
were, you know, a couple feet from

1402
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:20,640
dropping below 4192 and we want to

1403
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:22,360
consider, you know, keeping that South

1404
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:23,520
Arm wetted so we could keep those

1405
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:24,920
microbialites wetted, there may be some

1406
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:26,280
advantage and maybe we can do that in a

1407
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:29,120
way that doesn't um harm the salinity as

1408
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:31,720
much. Um however, it does put a cap on

1409
00:55:31,720 --> 00:55:33,560
raising the berm to 4192, at least the

1410
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,120
way I read it. I think there's been some

1411
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:36,080
folks that have had different

1412
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:38,160
interpretations, but as we go back and

1413
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:40,200
forth, I think we've all uh ended up

1414
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:42,880
settling on 4192 as the maximum. We

1415
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:44,720
still have to raise it if there's if it

1416
00:55:44,720 --> 00:55:47,640
goes below 4190. So, there's not a whole

1417
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:49,480
lot of room where we get to make

1418
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,040
discretionary changes to the berm, but

1419
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:54,640
it does exist. So, I guess what I wanted

1420
00:55:54,640 --> 00:55:57,080
to make sure we were thinking about is

1421
00:55:57,080 --> 00:55:59,080
um I I assume we're going to fall below

1422
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,480
4192. I think everybody can probably

1423
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:03,320
agree that's going to happen this year.

1424
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:04,240
And

1425
00:56:04,240 --> 00:56:05,840
we might be in a position where we're

1426
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:07,960
fall falling below 4190 and we have to

1427
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:09,560
raise the berm anyway.

1428
00:56:09,560 --> 00:56:11,480
So, what I wanted to discuss was whether

1429
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,120
or not um anybody has any thoughts on

1430
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:15,720
whether we should consider, you know,

1431
00:56:15,720 --> 00:56:17,760
once we start dropping down, should we

1432
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:19,560
raise the berm up and try to, you know,

1433
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:22,040
impound inflows so we keep what we have

1434
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:24,480
in the South Arm this year? Should we

1435
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:27,600
let it drop and focus more on fall of

1436
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:29,000
this coming year? I mean, I think the

1437
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:31,480
one concept would be that we raise it up

1438
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:33,200
to 4192

1439
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:35,080
um at the end of this water year and

1440
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:36,640
then capture everything moving into the

1441
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:38,400
next year just knowing that if we

1442
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:42,200
continue on a downward trend, we could have some issues. But, I'm sure

1443
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:43,280
we'll have some different meetings

1444
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:45,280
between now and October, but I just want

1445
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:46,640
to make sure that

1446
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:48,800
at least right now, we're thinking

1447
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:50,480
through what the next step is. So, I

1448
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,200
don't know if anybody has any thoughts

1449
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:53,840
on, you know,

1450
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:55,040
what we should be considering here with

1451
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:58,840
spring runoff and as we enter into the summer season,

1452
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:00,720
you know, with lake levels declining and

1453
00:57:00,720 --> 00:57:03,800
salinity levels probably rising, um if

1454
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:05,760
there's any threshold

1455
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:07,960
times or I guess

1456
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:09,880
uh yeah, lake levels where we ought to

1457
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:12,080
reconvene or consider

1458
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:13,800
raising that. Any any thoughts from

1459
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:17,630
anybody?

1460
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:19,520
Then I did um include those slides that

1461
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:21,160
I had shared with you. Oh, perfect. So,

1462
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,120
I'm kind I kind of walk folks through

1463
00:57:23,120 --> 00:57:24,480
what it might look like. I don't know if

1464
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:25,520
that's helpful, but that might help

1465
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:26,560
facilitate the conversation.

1466
00:57:26,560 --> 00:57:27,600
>> Yeah, I think that would be awesome if

1467
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:28,640
that's

1468
00:57:28,640 --> 00:57:30,080
Yeah. That might I think that would be

1469
00:57:30,080 --> 00:57:31,840
good. We can just jump into the next

1470
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:34,120
agenda item and talk about the estimate

1471
00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:36,840
or estimates for this year and

1472
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:38,640
for Kyle. And then just one thought

1473
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:40,440
outside of salinity,

1474
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:41,440
um we're going to talk about this a lot

1475
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:42,840
more at our TAG meeting coming up on

1476
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:44,800
Wednesday. So, if any of you guys can

1477
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:46,760
attend that, but some of the emerging

1478
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:48,800
research that we're seeing out of Gary

1479
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:52,120
Belovsky's lab is a nutrient limitation.

1480
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:54,440
And while we're exporting a lot of salt

1481
00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:55,960
to the North Arm, we're also exporting a

1482
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:57,440
lot of nitrogen.

1483
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:01,120
And in an already limited system,

1484
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:02,880
having all that nitrogen decoupled from

1485
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,440
the South Arm is becoming a problem.

1486
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:08,080
And so, I may, you know, kind of suggest

1487
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:11,280
that we may have look at maybe s-

1488
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:12,720
cutting a hole in the berm, you know,

1489
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:15,280
kind of cleaning it out a little bit now

1490
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:17,520
and allow some North Arm water exchange

1491
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:19,760
for the summer and then yeah, come back

1492
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:21,600
in at the end of the water year and then

1493
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:23,240
build that berm back up just to allow

1494
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:24,760
some of that nitrogen to come back to

1495
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:27,320
the South Arm and maintain productivity

1496
00:58:27,320 --> 00:58:30,120
for the biota that's there.

1497
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:31,920
Um just a thought and I'm willing to

1498
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:34,200
discuss it. Like I said, we'll have some

1499
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:36,360
finer details on that on Wednesday that

1500
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,960
I can't speak to yet cuz I'm not as

1501
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:41,520
smart as Gary, but

1502
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:42,960
maybe the industry has some thoughts on

1503
00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:49,390
that.

1504
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:53,040
I mean, I'll just mention that it's something

1505
00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:54,560
that we've been discussing for a while

1506
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:56,720
now that, you know, we could use we

1507
00:58:56,720 --> 00:59:00,240
could lose quite a bit of those nutrients.

1508
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:02,320
And we haven't really

1509
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:04,880
um determined, you know, what those

1510
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:06,520
losses are.

1511
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:10,680
Um so, it's certainly something we're going to have to focus on.

1512
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:12,840
Um

1513
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:15,400
And, you know, on the other hand,

1514
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:17,720
if we leave the berm open, we keep

1515
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:20,840
exporting salt. We may come to a point

1516
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:23,160
where that salinity becomes too low.

1517
00:59:23,160 --> 00:59:25,680
Luckily, we're not there.

1518
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,400
Well, I I think right now I

1519
00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:31,240
my opinion is similar to Ben's is we we

1520
00:59:31,240 --> 00:59:34,080
look at what is happening and

1521
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:35,600
during the fall when we start to see the

1522
00:59:35,600 --> 00:59:37,640
lake or

1523
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,160
when we get it when the lake reaches its

1524
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:41,080
uh

1525
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:43,400
its lowest point then we increase the

1526
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:45,400
size of the berm to really capture that

1527
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:46,680
water.

1528
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:48,720
That would be, you know,

1529
00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:50,000
but it's

1530
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:52,040
that's kind of an intuitive

1531
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:53,240
approach.

1532
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:55,760
I'm a little bit leery of opening up

1533
00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:57,880
that berm if we don't really know how

1534
00:59:57,880 --> 00:59:59,160
much

1535
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:02,480
um nutrients we can re-import and if we

1536
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,040
don't really know how much salt we're

1537
01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:07,200
going to re-import. So,

1538
01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:08,920
it's um

1539
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:10,520
I mean, I guess it

1540
01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:13,200
we could look at it as an experiment

1541
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:15,320
and make sure we measure everything

1542
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:16,920
carefully, but

1543
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:21,320
it's a big experiment. Oh, for sure. And

1544
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:23,120
that's why it's a a conversation right

1545
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:24,960
now of, you know, I think we're in a

1546
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:27,080
good position where we're on the bottom

1547
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:28,880
end of salinity that we have a little

1548
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:32,480
bit of range to

1549
01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:35,120
absorb some of that salt

1550
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,000
with the potential benefit of bringing

1551
01:00:37,000 --> 01:00:39,640
back some nutrients. So, and that's

1552
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:42,040
where, you know, cleaning out what's

1553
01:00:42,040 --> 01:00:43,480
left of the berm. I mean, it sounds like

1554
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:47,760
it's severely eroded based on the most recent topographic images of

1555
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:48,760
the uh

1556
01:00:48,760 --> 01:00:50,920
of the berm itself. So, maybe cleaning

1557
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:53,520
some of that out and creating a a space

1558
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:55,320
for to facilitate North Arm water

1559
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:57,280
trickling back in, which

1560
01:00:57,280 --> 01:00:58,960
won't be ideal because there's not a

1561
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:00,880
mixing mechanism and we are going to

1562
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:03,360
potentially create a deep run layer in

1563
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:05,320
the in the North Basin of Farmington

1564
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:07,280
Bay, but

1565
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:08,920
is that beneficial? And I think that's a

1566
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:10,880
conversation that would be a good thing

1567
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:14,240
to have at this time moving forward so

1568
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:16,400
that we have some opportunities to see

1569
01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:18,360
what's available, look at some of the

1570
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:20,360
content. And I think some of the

1571
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:21,920
measurements there it's just we need

1572
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:24,560
some people to look at the data and

1573
01:01:24,560 --> 01:01:26,400
you know, look at it as an option and

1574
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:27,880
see what's going to be best for the

1575
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:29,200
system.

1576
01:01:29,200 --> 01:01:31,880
Carl, did did Gary tell you how much

1577
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:35,480
nitrogen he thinks the bay the South Arm

1578
01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:37,200
has lost in

1579
01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:39,280
as a whole? I think he mentioned some

1580
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,280
numbers based on some of Christine's

1581
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:44,040
calculations and that's why

1582
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:46,000
I'm hesitant to give a number because I

1583
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:48,040
don't remember what those were.

1584
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:49,960
But like I say, that's going to be a

1585
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:52,400
good question on Wednesday.

1586
01:01:52,400 --> 01:01:55,360
And Bill, you had your hand up.

1587
01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:57,840
Yeah, I just want to clarify I'm really

1588
01:01:57,840 --> 01:01:59,480
surprised to hear that that would be

1589
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:01,120
significant, the nitrogen coming from

1590
01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:02,400
the North Arm would be significant

1591
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:04,800
compared to all the South Arm inflows

1592
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:05,960
that are you know, many of which are

1593
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:08,120
wastewater dominated.

1594
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:09,520
Um

1595
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:11,320
So I I'd really like to get a sense of

1596
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:13,000
confidence level

1597
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:15,400
that the North Arm is a significant

1598
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:16,840
contributor of nitrogen compared to

1599
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:19,630
those sources.

1600
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:21,880
Um we're very confident that the North

1601
01:02:21,880 --> 01:02:23,800
Arm is a substantial source of nitrogen

1602
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:25,400
to the system. It's about when it when

1603
01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:28,000
the berm yeah, when the berm was not

1604
01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:30,560
there and we just had bidirectional flow

1605
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:32,800
from our mass balance analysis from

1606
01:02:32,800 --> 01:02:35,880
about 2017 to 2022, we estimate that the

1607
01:02:35,880 --> 01:02:37,600
North Arm is supplying about half of the

1608
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:39,480
nitrogen input to the South Arm. So

1609
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:41,360
that's it relative to the surface water

1610
01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:42,960
gauges. So we know the North Arm is a

1611
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:48,320
really important source of nitrogen. The challenges with our records at the

1612
01:02:48,320 --> 01:02:50,120
breach is

1613
01:02:50,120 --> 01:02:51,240
and the challenges we've had with the

1614
01:02:51,240 --> 01:02:54,600
nutrient labs is stitching together

1615
01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:56,640
what that nutrient flux has been from

1616
01:02:56,640 --> 01:02:58,320
north to south. We have estimates and

1617
01:02:58,320 --> 01:02:59,760
essentially when you raise the berm, you

1618
01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:01,560
just cut off that supply which we know

1619
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:03,280
is really important and I'm trying to

1620
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:05,320
find my email to Gary where we estimated

1621
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:07,520
this so I can give you a number, but we

1622
01:03:07,520 --> 01:03:09,240
were basically able to say based on our

1623
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:11,560
estimates of flux that have been cut off

1624
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:13,600
and relative to the nutrient mass in the

1625
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:16,040
South Arm nitrogen mass, Um, it's

1626
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:17,360
decreased the concentration it would

1627
01:03:17,360 --> 01:03:18,760
have decreased the concentration in the

1628
01:03:18,760 --> 01:03:20,120
South Arm by some amount and that's what

1629
01:03:20,120 --> 01:03:22,240
I'm trying to to look up. But, yeah, but

1630
01:03:22,240 --> 01:03:23,640
we know it's a really important source

1631
01:03:23,640 --> 01:03:24,920
of nitrogen, but it has been pretty

1632
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:27,520
difficult for us to quantify, especially

1633
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:29,360
after 2023. We just don't have a lot of

1634
01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:32,240
data to work with. Um, but we're

1635
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:33,920
continuing to think about that and we'll

1636
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:36,000
be presenting at the TAG on this of like

1637
01:03:36,000 --> 01:03:37,960
our best estimates of the flux and

1638
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:40,360
relative to, you know, when we modify

1639
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:42,680
the berm and we change the um the

1640
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:44,640
magnitude of flux of salt, what is kind

1641
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:46,360
of a proportional change in nutrient

1642
01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:48,080
flux we're seeing. So, yeah, we're going

1643
01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:50,600
to be discussing that more at the TAG.

1644
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:52,760
So, Christine, did I hear you right that

1645
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:55,560
you were saying 50% of the of the

1646
01:03:55,560 --> 01:03:57,360
nitrogen inflow

1647
01:03:57,360 --> 01:04:00,320
into the South Arm would be coming from

1648
01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:02,280
in the past, historically, had become

1649
01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:03,880
>> Roughly about half. Yeah.

1650
01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:05,760
About half and that would be an average

1651
01:04:05,760 --> 01:04:07,080
or that would be a maximum?

1652
01:04:07,080 --> 01:04:08,800
>> That's an like I think an average and I

1653
01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:10,360
can check those calculations, too, but

1654
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:12,600
that's based on just a kind of an annual

1655
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:14,320
look at the nitrogen coming into the

1656
01:04:14,320 --> 01:04:16,360
South Arm and it's it's substantial.

1657
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:17,920
Yeah.

1658
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:19,880
And to further build on that, some of

1659
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:20,840
the

1660
01:04:20,840 --> 01:04:22,280
you know, the the suggestion that Gary

1661
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:24,160
made is that the North Arm has now

1662
01:04:24,160 --> 01:04:26,040
become a giant sink for nitrogen. So,

1663
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:27,560
while we're exporting everything, all

1664
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:29,400
the nitrogen goes into the North Arm,

1665
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:31,000
the water evaporates, the nitrogen

1666
01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:33,720
stays. With the limited return flow from

1667
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:35,640
North to South, all that nitrogen's

1668
01:04:35,640 --> 01:04:38,040
getting concentrated up there, uh just

1669
01:04:38,040 --> 01:04:41,240
like the way the salt is. And so, we're

1670
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:43,600
kind of net exporting

1671
01:04:43,600 --> 01:04:45,320
uh nitrogen out of the South Arm. So,

1672
01:04:45,320 --> 01:04:48,200
even though we do have inflow from

1673
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:50,680
the freshwater sources, it's it pales in

1674
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:53,320
comparison to what's being kind of

1675
01:04:53,320 --> 01:04:55,800
stuck in the North Arm.

1676
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:57,440
Yeah, and how conservative nitrogen is

1677
01:04:57,440 --> 01:04:59,280
in the North Arm is another question and

1678
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:03,480
Bonnie's been um wondering about this, the nitrogen cycling that's

1679
01:05:03,480 --> 01:05:04,800
happening in that hypersaline

1680
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:07,160
environment. Is it merely concentrating

1681
01:05:07,160 --> 01:05:08,800
or is it also being transformed and

1682
01:05:08,800 --> 01:05:10,200
being removed in some way? We don't I

1683
01:05:10,200 --> 01:05:11,880
don't There's a lot of unknowns there,

1684
01:05:11,880 --> 01:05:15,590
but

1685
01:05:15,600 --> 01:05:18,120
I think um Bonnie and

1686
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:20,000
um Scott have had some comments there in

1687
01:05:20,000 --> 01:05:22,640
the in the chat here, just acknowledging

1688
01:05:22,640 --> 01:05:23,880
that

1689
01:05:23,880 --> 01:05:24,560
um

1690
01:05:24,560 --> 01:05:26,720
that we do have nitrogen I guess

1691
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:29,240
nitrogen fixers in the in the north arm

1692
01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:30,960
that would be

1693
01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:36,110
um bringing that nitrogen in.

1694
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:38,520
So, I think

1695
01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:41,080
So, it's always great to find out that

1696
01:05:41,080 --> 01:05:42,880
things are even more complicated than

1697
01:05:42,880 --> 01:05:44,880
what we thought.

1698
01:05:44,880 --> 01:05:47,560
But, I think the I guess what I'm

1699
01:05:47,560 --> 01:05:50,200
hearing is that not only is that north

1700
01:05:50,200 --> 01:05:51,800
arm

1701
01:05:51,800 --> 01:05:53,120
flow

1702
01:05:53,120 --> 01:05:54,080
have

1703
01:05:54,080 --> 01:05:56,520
you know, 50% of the load into the lake,

1704
01:05:56,520 --> 01:05:58,560
we've cut that off. So, now we've lost

1705
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:01,480
that load into the south arm, but we're

1706
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:04,000
also exporting likely exporting some

1707
01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:06,280
nitrogen to the to the north arm. So,

1708
01:06:06,280 --> 01:06:07,320
that

1709
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:09,800
is affecting that balance even more in

1710
01:06:09,800 --> 01:06:11,640
the south arm.

1711
01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:14,320
So, yeah. Um

1712
01:06:14,320 --> 01:06:16,880
I know a lot of these calculations stem

1713
01:06:16,880 --> 01:06:19,520
on flow and measuring flow and and USGS

1714
01:06:19,520 --> 01:06:21,640
has tried to

1715
01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:23,800
The breach is a is a really tough place

1716
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:25,800
to measure. And um one of the things I

1717
01:06:25,800 --> 01:06:27,040
just threw this out to Ryan the other

1718
01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:28,480
day cuz I heard that there was potential

1719
01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:32,160
modifications to the to the um the berm.

1720
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:33,920
Um

1721
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:35,560
I've spent the last 2 weeks looking at a

1722
01:06:35,560 --> 01:06:37,120
lot of that data. And when the berm's in

1723
01:06:37,120 --> 01:06:39,560
place, we actually have um and I know

1724
01:06:39,560 --> 01:06:42,880
some and USU has been working on this.

1725
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:45,640
There's I think the modeling as far as

1726
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:47,200
predicting flow becomes a little better.

1727
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:49,000
And I think USGS has methods where we

1728
01:06:49,000 --> 01:06:51,240
could probably have a fairly confident

1729
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:53,120
number from south to north.

1730
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:55,040
When we blow that berm out or move that

1731
01:06:55,040 --> 01:06:58,160
berm, that kind of adjust that whole

1732
01:06:58,160 --> 01:06:59,680
computation and makes it a little more

1733
01:06:59,680 --> 01:07:01,800
difficult. And one of the things I I

1734
01:07:01,800 --> 01:07:04,800
mean, just throwing this out there, um

1735
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:06,680
one One things I thought about is if you

1736
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:08,560
move that berm, you have erosion, It's

1737
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:10,520
cons- pretty dynamic, it's hard to to

1738
01:07:10,520 --> 01:07:13,480
quantify that flow.

1739
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:16,400
Would something like pumping the water

1740
01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:18,880
from the north arm into the south where

1741
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:24,520
you can have more substantial calculations, you can quantify that flow a little bit

1742
01:07:24,520 --> 01:07:27,160
better. Would would definitely improve

1743
01:07:27,160 --> 01:07:29,120
your numbers going from south to north

1744
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:31,400
and then north to south as well to kind

1745
01:07:31,400 --> 01:07:33,000
of maybe get a cuz I know there's a lot

1746
01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:35,040
of uncertainty in our flow measurements.

1747
01:07:35,040 --> 01:07:37,400
So, I'll I'll just say that we we

1748
01:07:37,400 --> 01:07:38,960
actually had the Jacobs run some

1749
01:07:38,960 --> 01:07:40,960
engineering on putting in a more

1750
01:07:40,960 --> 01:07:43,240
intelligent structure to see about like

1751
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:44,680
maybe having something more uniform

1752
01:07:44,680 --> 01:07:46,920
that's more easily adjusted. We also had

1753
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:48,680
them explore the thought of like maybe

1754
01:07:48,680 --> 01:07:51,480
we put in pumps and you can run it both

1755
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:52,600
ways and you don't have to worry about

1756
01:07:52,600 --> 01:07:54,120
gravity and elevation and all that fun

1757
01:07:54,120 --> 01:07:57,280
stuff or siphons or other things. Um it

1758
01:07:57,280 --> 01:07:59,160
gets really really really expensive and

1759
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:01,280
also the pumping uh

1760
01:08:01,280 --> 01:08:03,080
just getting enough electricity and the

1761
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:04,280
size of the pumps, I mean, any of these

1762
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:06,160
projects end up up at like 30, 40

1763
01:08:06,160 --> 01:08:09,080
million dollars. And so, I think that

1764
01:08:09,080 --> 01:08:10,040
when we discussed it here at the

1765
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:11,360
salinity committee, it was kind of like,

1766
01:08:11,360 --> 01:08:13,600
well, you know, this rock berm that's

1767
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:16,799
basically free um is working good

1768
01:08:16,799 --> 01:08:18,880
enough, but I think that this is still

1769
01:08:18,880 --> 01:08:20,600
something that we're interested in to

1770
01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:22,759
see if we can refine that. And we are

1771
01:08:22,759 --> 01:08:25,000
still working to incorporate some

1772
01:08:25,000 --> 01:08:27,080
components of what Jeff's team came up

1773
01:08:27,080 --> 01:08:29,240
with which one of them was uh a

1774
01:08:29,240 --> 01:08:31,600
protective structure, so seiches and

1775
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:34,080
wave action don't affect the um you

1776
01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:35,200
know, the berms so we don't have like

1777
01:08:35,200 --> 01:08:37,120
accidental blowouts. We're a little more

1778
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:39,960
informed and can like be more precise

1779
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:41,319
with our adjustments and I think for

1780
01:08:41,319 --> 01:08:43,359
monitoring and measuring um having

1781
01:08:43,359 --> 01:08:44,759
something that's more uniform and not

1782
01:08:44,759 --> 01:08:47,440
constantly moving will also help, but um

1783
01:08:47,440 --> 01:08:49,400
that's yeah, we're we're still working

1784
01:08:49,400 --> 01:08:50,560
on that, but I think there's going to be

1785
01:08:50,560 --> 01:08:53,200
core permitting and um other other

1786
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:55,160
issues along with that. And then I also

1787
01:08:55,160 --> 01:08:56,839
just had a quick question as well. Has

1788
01:08:56,839 --> 01:08:59,080
anybody looked to see if salinity, like

1789
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:01,560
the actual concentration and nutrients

1790
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:03,759
are are they correlated? Cuz I would

1791
01:09:03,759 --> 01:09:05,000
assume that

1792
01:09:05,000 --> 01:09:06,759
they've got to be somewhat in the same

1793
01:09:06,759 --> 01:09:08,560
realm, right?

1794
01:09:08,560 --> 01:09:10,120
I haven't looked at that directly, Ben,

1795
01:09:10,120 --> 01:09:13,440
but I'm the nutrient concentrations tend

1796
01:09:13,440 --> 01:09:16,400
to be fairly stable over time.

1797
01:09:16,400 --> 01:09:18,880
Um and while while we kind of see these

1798
01:09:18,880 --> 01:09:20,680
step changes in salinity based on

1799
01:09:20,680 --> 01:09:23,680
changing mass, but I mean recently, so I

1800
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:26,160
found the email that we sent to Gary and

1801
01:09:26,160 --> 01:09:26,839
uh

1802
01:09:26,839 --> 01:09:28,240
yeah, we are seeing some changes in the

1803
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:30,600
South Arm nutrient mass more recently.

1804
01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:32,279
Um so yeah, that's a good question. It's

1805
01:09:32,279 --> 01:09:34,240
just how how tightly coupled are they,

1806
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:35,480
which is part of the analysis we're

1807
01:09:35,480 --> 01:09:37,359
doing at the the breach of just looking

1808
01:09:37,359 --> 01:09:39,080
at those fluxes and how their relative

1809
01:09:39,080 --> 01:09:39,920
changes are.

1810
01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:41,880
>> I mean I would think that assuming that

1811
01:09:41,880 --> 01:09:43,240
you know, when we have big infusions of

1812
01:09:43,240 --> 01:09:44,839
North Arm brines and our salinity goes

1813
01:09:44,839 --> 01:09:47,279
up and whatnot, that we would also have

1814
01:09:47,279 --> 01:09:49,880
big infusions of nutrients as well. And

1815
01:09:49,880 --> 01:09:51,600
so I think it'd be really interesting

1816
01:09:51,600 --> 01:09:53,480
before we start making decisions on

1817
01:09:53,480 --> 01:09:55,440
modifying the berm, like Thomas said,

1818
01:09:55,440 --> 01:09:57,360
you know, like can we refine that and

1819
01:09:57,360 --> 01:09:59,600
understand more closely like what how

1820
01:09:59,600 --> 01:10:02,400
that's related, but also you know, did

1821
01:10:02,400 --> 01:10:04,240
we look back and see like the last time

1822
01:10:04,240 --> 01:10:06,560
that we were 120 g per liter in the

1823
01:10:06,560 --> 01:10:10,160
spring, what was our nutrient where were we at on nutrients? Cuz it's

1824
01:10:10,160 --> 01:10:11,520
just it seems to me like it'd be really

1825
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:13,320
interesting to know if we're just not

1826
01:10:13,320 --> 01:10:14,400
used to being at this kind of

1827
01:10:14,400 --> 01:10:15,880
concentration. I mean, we we were at

1828
01:10:15,880 --> 01:10:18,320
like 90 g per liter last spring coming

1829
01:10:18,320 --> 01:10:20,360
into this if I remember correctly. And

1830
01:10:20,360 --> 01:10:22,360
so, you know, we're we're kind of slowly

1831
01:10:22,360 --> 01:10:23,680
going back up and that also is what

1832
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:26,000
makes me a little nervous about allowing

1833
01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:28,920
too much North Arm inflow is that you

1834
01:10:28,920 --> 01:10:31,520
know, we're one really heavy

1835
01:10:31,520 --> 01:10:34,240
evaporative, you know, summer, we could

1836
01:10:34,240 --> 01:10:37,080
be right back up at 150 g per liter, 155

1837
01:10:37,080 --> 01:10:38,360
and we're like, you know, right on the

1838
01:10:38,360 --> 01:10:39,880
cusp of being where we've been trying to

1839
01:10:39,880 --> 01:10:41,920
manage, you know, to keep it below that.

1840
01:10:41,920 --> 01:10:45,360
So, I don't know. It's a little nerve-racking to think

1841
01:10:45,360 --> 01:10:46,680
that we're going to get

1842
01:10:46,680 --> 01:10:48,360
too close, especially

1843
01:10:48,360 --> 01:10:49,840
and we also might be coming into another

1844
01:10:49,840 --> 01:10:53,000
like 10-year longer plus drought, so we

1845
01:10:53,000 --> 01:10:54,680
really got to think about, you know,

1846
01:10:54,680 --> 01:10:57,640
what we do today for the next 10 years.

1847
01:10:57,640 --> 01:11:00,200
I had two questions um Bill and then

1848
01:11:00,200 --> 01:11:02,440
Phil um and then I think it would be

1849
01:11:02,440 --> 01:11:04,360
really good to see what Christine's

1850
01:11:04,360 --> 01:11:05,920
numbers are. I think that'll help

1851
01:11:05,920 --> 01:11:08,080
provide a lot of context to this. Go

1852
01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:09,920
ahead Bill.

1853
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:11,960
I'm just wondering whether the shortcut

1854
01:11:11,960 --> 01:11:14,840
load during runoff is exporting a lot of

1855
01:11:14,840 --> 01:11:16,160
nitrogen

1856
01:11:16,160 --> 01:11:18,080
and that it is that a major part of the

1857
01:11:18,080 --> 01:11:19,440
problem? And Christine, you may or may

1858
01:11:19,440 --> 01:11:20,960
not have a sense of that, but I'm just

1859
01:11:20,960 --> 01:11:22,480
throwing that out there.

1860
01:11:22,480 --> 01:11:24,560
Yeah, I you know, the Bear I think at

1861
01:11:24,560 --> 01:11:27,200
certain I'll have to look at the the um

1862
01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:29,080
the estimates we generated Bill and

1863
01:11:29,080 --> 01:11:30,560
maybe I can prepare that for Wednesday.

1864
01:11:30,560 --> 01:11:31,960
I don't know if you'll be at the TAG.

1865
01:11:31,960 --> 01:11:33,520
The Bear is being the largest inflow

1866
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:35,760
carries a lot of mass, but some of our

1867
01:11:35,760 --> 01:11:37,120
other inflows like the Goggin and

1868
01:11:37,120 --> 01:11:39,000
Farmington Bay actually have high high

1869
01:11:39,000 --> 01:11:41,080
concentrations of nutrients, so they

1870
01:11:41,080 --> 01:11:43,200
actually contribute a large portion of

1871
01:11:43,200 --> 01:11:45,080
the nutrient mass, but I think yeah,

1872
01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:46,520
anytime, you know, you think about

1873
01:11:46,520 --> 01:11:48,000
contributions from the Bear, there's a

1874
01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:49,640
risk of it being lost due to that short

1875
01:11:49,640 --> 01:11:52,120
circuiting. So, it's an important thing

1876
01:11:52,120 --> 01:11:55,590
to consider.

1877
01:11:55,600 --> 01:11:57,720
And Bill, those uh

1878
01:11:57,720 --> 01:11:59,480
flows coming into the Bear, they might

1879
01:11:59,480 --> 01:12:02,000
be more dilute than what's in the South

1880
01:12:02,000 --> 01:12:05,080
Arm brine itself because

1881
01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:07,160
if I'm remembering the 2017 NAWQS

1882
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:10,080
report, on an annual basis, river

1883
01:12:10,080 --> 01:12:13,600
inflows are contributing about 8%

1884
01:12:13,600 --> 01:12:16,560
of the nitrogen. Soluble nitrogen.

1885
01:12:16,560 --> 01:12:19,040
So,

1886
01:12:19,040 --> 01:12:21,360
uh it you know, the river inflow may be

1887
01:12:21,360 --> 01:12:23,920
more dilute than what the South Arm

1888
01:12:23,920 --> 01:12:25,640
brine is. It's delivering nutrients

1889
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:27,320
because they stick in the lake, but it

1890
01:12:27,320 --> 01:12:28,760
might be more dilute than the brine

1891
01:12:28,760 --> 01:12:30,960
itself. So, that shortcutting,

1892
01:12:30,960 --> 01:12:33,800
ironically, could be exporting less than

1893
01:12:33,800 --> 01:12:36,080
if it was just straight South Arm brine,

1894
01:12:36,080 --> 01:12:37,160
but

1895
01:12:37,160 --> 01:12:39,040
I can't be certain of that.

1896
01:12:39,040 --> 01:12:40,880
The the way the numbers stick out in my

1897
01:12:40,880 --> 01:12:43,080
mind is that the

1898
01:12:43,080 --> 01:12:46,240
nitrogen inflow from the runoff is

1899
01:12:46,240 --> 01:12:49,840
basically offset by atmospheric loss.

1900
01:12:49,840 --> 01:12:51,640
Those are kind of

1901
01:12:51,640 --> 01:12:53,240
they kind of cancel each other out every

1902
01:12:53,240 --> 01:12:56,680
year and so the long-term model that

1903
01:12:56,680 --> 01:12:58,240
Gary's been building for us treats

1904
01:12:58,240 --> 01:13:00,960
nitrogen as just a stable pool

1905
01:13:00,960 --> 01:13:04,960
and it dilutes when you in increase with

1906
01:13:04,960 --> 01:13:07,560
runoff and it concentrates as things are

1907
01:13:07,560 --> 01:13:09,840
evaporating and now what the berm has

1908
01:13:09,840 --> 01:13:12,160
done it's it's just decoupled where that

1909
01:13:12,160 --> 01:13:14,640
nitrogen sits. So the amount of nitrogen

1910
01:13:14,640 --> 01:13:17,200
is kind of the same it's just so much

1911
01:13:17,200 --> 01:13:18,640
more of it is in the north arm than the

1912
01:13:18,640 --> 01:13:21,080
south arm and when the south arm is what

1913
01:13:21,080 --> 01:13:23,160
relies on that nitrogen

1914
01:13:23,160 --> 01:13:27,160
to the effectiveness of industry and

1915
01:13:27,160 --> 01:13:29,160
avian population

1916
01:13:29,160 --> 01:13:32,040
that's kind of hurting us is is kind of

1917
01:13:32,040 --> 01:13:34,000
the the thought that I'm putting out

1918
01:13:34,000 --> 01:13:35,200
there that I want to have a conversation

1919
01:13:35,200 --> 01:13:38,320
about in the future. And that concept of

1920
01:13:38,320 --> 01:13:39,200
a

1921
01:13:39,200 --> 01:13:41,080
somewhat stable nitrogen pool being

1922
01:13:41,080 --> 01:13:44,000
diluted or concentrated is present in

1923
01:13:44,000 --> 01:13:46,480
USGS data while the water quality

1924
01:13:46,480 --> 01:13:48,000
laboratory is still willing to run the

1925
01:13:48,000 --> 01:13:50,240
samples you could develop a pretty good

1926
01:13:50,240 --> 01:13:52,680
correlation between lake elevation and

1927
01:13:52,680 --> 01:13:55,120
total nitrogen concentration

1928
01:13:55,120 --> 01:13:57,920
um but the open question is has that

1929
01:13:57,920 --> 01:13:59,840
relationship changed the way it did with

1930
01:13:59,840 --> 01:14:02,240
salinity and part of the problem with

1931
01:14:02,240 --> 01:14:03,960
the water quality lab not running these

1932
01:14:03,960 --> 01:14:06,240
samples anymore is that happened um

1933
01:14:06,240 --> 01:14:08,880
during a period where you'd notice that

1934
01:14:08,880 --> 01:14:10,920
step change and we don't have the data

1935
01:14:10,920 --> 01:14:12,800
and uh Christine's presented on that in

1936
01:14:12,800 --> 01:14:14,920
TAG before it's a bit of a

1937
01:14:14,920 --> 01:14:15,840
um

1938
01:14:15,840 --> 01:14:17,840
bad timing to have a data gap so that's

1939
01:14:17,840 --> 01:14:20,480
kind of the open question but prior to

1940
01:14:20,480 --> 01:14:22,920
um a lot of berm modification it was

1941
01:14:22,920 --> 01:14:25,000
fairly tightly coupled elevation and

1942
01:14:25,000 --> 01:14:27,760
total nitrogen in USGS data so but

1943
01:14:27,760 --> 01:14:28,800
that's

1944
01:14:28,800 --> 01:14:30,800
I want to make sure we've got um cuz

1945
01:14:30,800 --> 01:14:33,800
that it sounds like Wednesday and this

1946
01:14:33,800 --> 01:14:35,840
nutrient issues going to be the main

1947
01:14:35,840 --> 01:14:37,600
event and

1948
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:39,600
um and so we'll have all of that I mean

1949
01:14:39,600 --> 01:14:42,160
a lot of you will be there. Did you

1950
01:14:42,160 --> 01:14:43,680
some quick Yeah I just wanted to make

1951
01:14:43,680 --> 01:14:45,600
one more comment is that in in a little

1952
01:14:45,600 --> 01:14:47,160
bit of research we did on nutrient

1953
01:14:47,160 --> 01:14:49,160
cycling, which was Christine and the

1954
01:14:49,160 --> 01:14:51,480
USGS did that work.

1955
01:14:51,480 --> 01:14:52,760
We found that it was a lot of

1956
01:14:52,760 --> 01:14:55,560
sequestration of nutrients in the in the

1957
01:14:55,560 --> 01:14:57,640
benthic portion of the lake. And you

1958
01:14:57,640 --> 01:15:00,640
know, one wonders as we lost the deep

1959
01:15:00,640 --> 01:15:02,760
brine layer, how that may or may not

1960
01:15:02,760 --> 01:15:04,880
have contributed to nutrients. So, I

1961
01:15:04,880 --> 01:15:06,760
think there's an added complexity with

1962
01:15:06,760 --> 01:15:09,400
nutrients in that the cycling, you know,

1963
01:15:09,400 --> 01:15:11,400
creates a much more complex situation

1964
01:15:11,400 --> 01:15:13,160
than let's say with minerals in the

1965
01:15:13,160 --> 01:15:15,320
lake. So, Yeah, what I agree. There's

1966
01:15:15,320 --> 01:15:16,720
multiple chemical and biological

1967
01:15:16,720 --> 01:15:18,240
processes happening with nutrients that

1968
01:15:18,240 --> 01:15:20,040
is not necessarily happening happening

1969
01:15:20,040 --> 01:15:22,280
with salinity. But, I I will be sharing

1970
01:15:22,280 --> 01:15:23,960
on more on that Wednesday. Also, maybe

1971
01:15:23,960 --> 01:15:25,680
there won't be time cuz we'll be talking

1972
01:15:25,680 --> 01:15:27,840
about the firm the whole time, but um

1973
01:15:27,840 --> 01:15:29,680
and I did look up our email chain with

1974
01:15:29,680 --> 01:15:32,600
Gary and I had estimated about 0.1 to

1975
01:15:32,600 --> 01:15:35,240
0.2 mg per liter nitrogen decrease in

1976
01:15:35,240 --> 01:15:37,000
the South Arm. So, that's concentration

1977
01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:39,120
per year. And so, but it's important to

1978
01:15:39,120 --> 01:15:40,680
consider the cumulative effects of what

1979
01:15:40,680 --> 01:15:42,200
that might be. So, each year which we're

1980
01:15:42,200 --> 01:15:44,480
cutting off that nitrogen supply from

1981
01:15:44,480 --> 01:15:47,800
the North Arm by three year by by year

1982
01:15:47,800 --> 01:15:49,320
three, then I estimate about half a

1983
01:15:49,320 --> 01:15:50,760
milligram per liter decline of nitrogen

1984
01:15:50,760 --> 01:15:54,040
in the South Arm. And these are very rough estimates based on limited

1985
01:15:54,040 --> 01:15:56,920
data we have. Um but, that's gives you

1986
01:15:56,920 --> 01:15:59,240
some sense of from what you know,

1987
01:15:59,240 --> 01:16:00,680
conversations with Gary and looking at

1988
01:16:00,680 --> 01:16:02,120
our data with you know, Scott and I

1989
01:16:02,120 --> 01:16:03,880
looking at the data. So, And then just

1990
01:16:03,880 --> 01:16:05,880
for context for those online, half a

1991
01:16:05,880 --> 01:16:07,160
milligram per liter, what is that as

1992
01:16:07,160 --> 01:16:08,960
like a percentage of total nitrogen?

1993
01:16:08,960 --> 01:16:11,320
Percentage, it's like the the South Arm

1994
01:16:11,320 --> 01:16:13,120
nitrogen concentrations around four,

1995
01:16:13,120 --> 01:16:15,000
like four four and a half. So, fair to

1996
01:16:15,000 --> 01:16:17,280
say Five, yeah, so Cool. Just anywhere,

1997
01:16:17,280 --> 01:16:18,920
yeah.

1998
01:16:18,920 --> 01:16:21,720
All right, let's get into the forecast

1999
01:16:21,720 --> 01:16:37,230
and

2000
01:16:37,240 --> 01:16:38,800
Okay.

2001
01:16:38,800 --> 01:16:40,160
Well, I followed the norm the approach

2002
01:16:40,160 --> 01:16:42,720
we normally do, but um as mentioned, we

2003
01:16:42,720 --> 01:16:44,760
may have already peaked. So, these may

2004
01:16:44,760 --> 01:16:46,480
not be super meaningful. Again, our most

2005
01:16:46,480 --> 01:16:48,760
recent uh estimate for as of March 4th

2006
01:16:48,760 --> 01:16:51,080
was 119 g per liter based on observed

2007
01:16:51,080 --> 01:16:53,440
data. I'm and then I I kind of only

2008
01:16:53,440 --> 01:16:56,280
carry this to April 30th, just assuming

2009
01:16:56,280 --> 01:16:57,680
that this is not going to be a long run

2010
01:16:57,680 --> 01:17:00,320
off-season. And so, any precipitation

2011
01:17:00,320 --> 01:17:02,720
coming in during that time, evaporation,

2012
01:17:02,720 --> 01:17:05,360
inflows, all that stuff is considered.

2013
01:17:05,360 --> 01:17:06,560
And I'll just

2014
01:17:06,560 --> 01:17:08,480
cut to the chase here. Here's a table of

2015
01:17:08,480 --> 01:17:13,520
predictions for April 30th. Um I include three climate uh scenarios.

2016
01:17:13,520 --> 01:17:15,360
So, starting at the top row is our dry

2017
01:17:15,360 --> 01:17:17,480
warm, middle is our average condition,

2018
01:17:17,480 --> 01:17:19,880
and then uh the bottom one is a wet cool

2019
01:17:19,880 --> 01:17:23,080
condition. So, ranging from 112 to 118.

2020
01:17:23,080 --> 01:17:25,320
I kind of put in a little plug there um

2021
01:17:25,320 --> 01:17:27,920
just showing what the NRCS forecast at

2022
01:17:27,920 --> 01:17:29,440
4192.4

2023
01:17:29,440 --> 01:17:30,920
is what they forecast for the seasonal

2024
01:17:30,920 --> 01:17:33,160
peak, and that would result in a uh

2025
01:17:33,160 --> 01:17:35,440
salinity of 117 g per liter. So, just a

2026
01:17:35,440 --> 01:17:36,760
little bit

2027
01:17:36,760 --> 01:17:39,440
lower than than our um volume weighted

2028
01:17:39,440 --> 01:17:41,880
salinity we calculated for March 4th.

2029
01:17:41,880 --> 01:17:43,640
So, that not much change from what we're

2030
01:17:43,640 --> 01:17:46,640
already seeing, unless we get a lot more

2031
01:17:46,640 --> 01:17:48,880
precipitation coming in.

2032
01:17:48,880 --> 01:17:51,640
Is my Okay, mic's on. Okay.

2033
01:17:51,640 --> 01:17:54,320
So, um and then I just did a really This

2034
01:17:54,320 --> 01:17:56,120
is my back-of-the-envelope calculation

2035
01:17:56,120 --> 01:17:59,000
for fall of 2026 and what that might be.

2036
01:17:59,000 --> 01:18:00,840
Um this is a plot showing the annual

2037
01:18:00,840 --> 01:18:03,240
drop in elevation from a spring peak to

2038
01:18:03,240 --> 01:18:06,280
fall low back to 1960, approximately. We

2039
01:18:06,280 --> 01:18:07,880
could to show that the um elevation

2040
01:18:07,880 --> 01:18:10,000
decline each year has been going up.

2041
01:18:10,000 --> 01:18:11,040
That's a

2042
01:18:11,040 --> 01:18:13,040
significant trend we're seeing. And so,

2043
01:18:13,040 --> 01:18:16,120
then I just sort of took that average um

2044
01:18:16,120 --> 01:18:19,440
decline, 2.66 ft, and then applied a

2045
01:18:19,440 --> 01:18:21,800
confidence interval to get a range. Um

2046
01:18:21,800 --> 01:18:25,440
so, anywhere from 2.9 to 2.4 ft foot

2047
01:18:25,440 --> 01:18:27,880
decline from our spring high to our fall

2048
01:18:27,880 --> 01:18:31,440
low. Using the NRCS uh spring peak

2049
01:18:31,440 --> 01:18:34,360
forecast of 117 g per liter, that gets

2050
01:18:34,360 --> 01:18:36,400
us to a fall concentration ranging from

2051
01:18:36,400 --> 01:18:38,800
like around 140 g per liter.

2052
01:18:38,800 --> 01:18:41,120
I did also try this with volume looking

2053
01:18:41,120 --> 01:18:43,400
at the trend in um South Arm volume

2054
01:18:43,400 --> 01:18:46,960
decline. There's still a trend um

2055
01:18:46,960 --> 01:18:49,120
but the elevations the the fall

2056
01:18:49,120 --> 01:18:50,880
elevations

2057
01:18:50,880 --> 01:18:53,000
kind of were not as reasonable. So here

2058
01:18:53,000 --> 01:18:54,480
we're kind of looking at around 3 ft

2059
01:18:54,480 --> 01:18:57,360
decline high twos, which is in line with

2060
01:18:57,360 --> 01:18:59,640
our historical record. If I apply a the

2061
01:18:59,640 --> 01:19:01,600
volume volume approach, I'm getting more

2062
01:19:01,600 --> 01:19:03,560
into like the 3 and 1/2 ft decline.

2063
01:19:03,560 --> 01:19:04,960
Maybe that's reasonable for this year,

2064
01:19:04,960 --> 01:19:07,320
but it's not something we've observed uh

2065
01:19:07,320 --> 01:19:10,280
before. And those concentrations, if I

2066
01:19:10,280 --> 01:19:13,280
do that, that's around 145 to 150 g per

2067
01:19:13,280 --> 01:19:14,880
liter for the fall. So just giving you

2068
01:19:14,880 --> 01:19:16,920
some sense of the different approaches

2069
01:19:16,920 --> 01:19:17,920
that um

2070
01:19:17,920 --> 01:19:20,360
can be used, but this is gives us some

2071
01:19:20,360 --> 01:19:22,480
idea.

2072
01:19:22,480 --> 01:19:24,320
Okay, so now I'm going to walk us

2073
01:19:24,320 --> 01:19:25,960
through these couple of different

2074
01:19:25,960 --> 01:19:27,680
scenarios. And please jump in at any

2075
01:19:27,680 --> 01:19:29,120
time if there's questions, cuz I'm going

2076
01:19:29,120 --> 01:19:30,680
to be using our iso mass plot, which I

2077
01:19:30,680 --> 01:19:34,320
realize can be a bit of a a mind game.

2078
01:19:34,320 --> 01:19:36,800
But the first scenario is that we lower

2079
01:19:36,800 --> 01:19:39,120
the berm. Basically uh Ben asked, you

2080
01:19:39,120 --> 01:19:41,280
know, reached out maybe a a month ago or

2081
01:19:41,280 --> 01:19:43,960
so and said, "Can we just start to think

2082
01:19:43,960 --> 01:19:45,640
about what how salinity would change

2083
01:19:45,640 --> 01:19:47,360
under a couple of different scenarios?"

2084
01:19:47,360 --> 01:19:49,560
The first being we want to import salt

2085
01:19:49,560 --> 01:19:51,680
during the summer because we're kind of

2086
01:19:51,680 --> 01:19:53,000
getting in you know, maybe we're

2087
01:19:53,000 --> 01:19:55,000
flirting with low range. What would

2088
01:19:55,000 --> 01:19:56,640
happen if we open the berm and imported

2089
01:19:56,640 --> 01:19:58,000
some salt over the summer time? So

2090
01:19:58,000 --> 01:20:00,000
that's our first scenario. We lower the

2091
01:20:00,000 --> 01:20:02,840
berm in May um to import salt from the

2092
01:20:02,840 --> 01:20:04,720
north during the summer and then we

2093
01:20:04,720 --> 01:20:07,160
raise the berm in November-ish

2094
01:20:07,160 --> 01:20:09,640
to uh to trap all spring inflows. So and

2095
01:20:09,640 --> 01:20:11,680
this analysis is assuming when we raise

2096
01:20:11,680 --> 01:20:13,440
the berm, we disconnect the north and

2097
01:20:13,440 --> 01:20:15,440
the south arm. So assuming that we stay

2098
01:20:15,440 --> 01:20:17,440
below that 4192 if that's the highest we

2099
01:20:17,440 --> 01:20:20,000
can go for the berm uh construction. The

2100
01:20:20,000 --> 01:20:23,000
second scenario is we don't change the

2101
01:20:23,000 --> 01:20:25,320
berm until November of 2026. So we

2102
01:20:25,320 --> 01:20:26,920
continue in the paradigm we are now,

2103
01:20:26,920 --> 01:20:29,720
which is uh seems to be a net export of

2104
01:20:29,720 --> 01:20:31,440
salt. So salt will continue to ratchet

2105
01:20:31,440 --> 01:20:32,920
down. So those are the two things we're

2106
01:20:32,920 --> 01:20:34,280
considering.

2107
01:20:34,280 --> 01:20:35,920
Um all right, so here we can get

2108
01:20:35,920 --> 01:20:37,720
familiar with where we are now as of

2109
01:20:37,720 --> 01:20:39,680
March 4th our measurements

2110
01:20:39,680 --> 01:20:41,000
are we have our South Arm elevation on

2111
01:20:41,000 --> 01:20:42,560
the Y axis and our volume weighted

2112
01:20:42,560 --> 01:20:46,280
salinity um on the X axis. And we're as

2113
01:20:46,280 --> 01:20:48,600
of March 4th we were sitting 118 and

2114
01:20:48,600 --> 01:20:51,040
4192.2 ft. So that's our starting

2115
01:20:51,040 --> 01:20:53,240
condition. And these kind of dashed

2116
01:20:53,240 --> 01:20:56,800
lines just kind of mark um how I

2117
01:20:56,800 --> 01:20:59,160
triangulate to see to get to these these

2118
01:20:59,160 --> 01:21:00,480
points these estimates that I'll be

2119
01:21:00,480 --> 01:21:02,400
getting at. And all these are based on a

2120
01:21:02,400 --> 01:21:04,360
spreadsheet mass balance calculation as

2121
01:21:04,360 --> 01:21:05,760
well, but these plots actually

2122
01:21:05,760 --> 01:21:07,920
illustrate really well how we move

2123
01:21:07,920 --> 01:21:10,000
through these three variables. And that

2124
01:21:10,000 --> 01:21:12,520
the dashed uh ice mass line that's kind

2125
01:21:12,520 --> 01:21:14,880
of curved that's in between the 800

2126
01:21:14,880 --> 01:21:16,960
million tons and the billion ton, that's

2127
01:21:16,960 --> 01:21:18,920
kind of our current mass. So you can see

2128
01:21:18,920 --> 01:21:21,040
how I'm triangulating between the dashed

2129
01:21:21,040 --> 01:21:22,960
line that is the mass, the dashed line

2130
01:21:22,960 --> 01:21:24,800
that's elevation, and then salinity.

2131
01:21:24,800 --> 01:21:26,920
That gets us to our salinity.

2132
01:21:26,920 --> 01:21:27,800
So

2133
01:21:27,800 --> 01:21:31,000
uh assuming that we peak around May 1st,

2134
01:21:31,000 --> 01:21:33,320
um this is the NRCS estimate. So

2135
01:21:33,320 --> 01:21:36,160
assuming we get up to 4192.4 which we've

2136
01:21:36,160 --> 01:21:40,760
actually kind of already hit um and that gets our salinity to 117 g per

2137
01:21:40,760 --> 01:21:42,760
liter. At that time I'm estimating

2138
01:21:42,760 --> 01:21:46,240
around a mass of 870 million tons.

2139
01:21:46,240 --> 01:21:48,960
So then moving forward I introduce these

2140
01:21:48,960 --> 01:21:51,080
berm management modifications. So for

2141
01:21:51,080 --> 01:21:52,720
the first scenario we're lowering the

2142
01:21:52,720 --> 01:21:54,800
berm on May 1st. So what happens with

2143
01:21:54,800 --> 01:21:55,880
that?

2144
01:21:55,880 --> 01:21:57,160
Um

2145
01:21:57,160 --> 01:21:59,840
as of November 1st, 2026 we've got two

2146
01:21:59,840 --> 01:22:01,560
different scenarios. The kind of

2147
01:22:01,560 --> 01:22:04,600
orangish uh yellowish scenario is that

2148
01:22:04,600 --> 01:22:06,760
we import salt over the summer. So

2149
01:22:06,760 --> 01:22:08,360
that's the situation where we would have

2150
01:22:08,360 --> 01:22:10,680
lowered it and we would have imported

2151
01:22:10,680 --> 01:22:13,840
salt um on the order of 35 million tons

2152
01:22:13,840 --> 01:22:15,520
over the summer.

2153
01:22:15,520 --> 01:22:17,440
That raises that would raise our mass uh

2154
01:22:17,440 --> 01:22:20,200
to 905 million tons. That's the kind of

2155
01:22:20,200 --> 01:22:23,120
the um higher dashed line. And then the

2156
01:22:23,120 --> 01:22:25,120
blue box and the blue dot represent what

2157
01:22:25,120 --> 01:22:30,440
if we don't change the berm at all? We gradually export salt so that those

2158
01:22:30,440 --> 01:22:32,480
two lines, that's really the key. Those

2159
01:22:32,480 --> 01:22:35,360
two dashed isomath lines are offset and

2160
01:22:35,360 --> 01:22:37,560
that gives us our range in salinity. So,

2161
01:22:37,560 --> 01:22:39,880
141 g per liter for not modifying the

2162
01:22:39,880 --> 01:22:42,440
berm in May and 149 g per liter in the

2163
01:22:42,440 --> 01:22:45,040
fall for modifying the berm in May.

2164
01:22:45,040 --> 01:22:46,640
Again, because we're just importing more

2165
01:22:46,640 --> 01:22:48,360
salt and that's the effect on the South

2166
01:22:48,360 --> 01:22:49,240
Arm.

2167
01:22:49,240 --> 01:22:51,640
So, after this point, for both of these

2168
01:22:51,640 --> 01:22:53,880
scenarios, we raise the berm completely

2169
01:22:53,880 --> 01:22:55,840
so we're up to we're disconnecting the

2170
01:22:55,840 --> 01:22:58,120
North and the South Arms. The mass stays

2171
01:22:58,120 --> 01:22:59,880
the same from here moving forward. So,

2172
01:22:59,880 --> 01:23:02,320
we have our two scenarios, one at 900

2173
01:23:02,320 --> 01:23:04,600
and 5 million tons, one at 856 million

2174
01:23:04,600 --> 01:23:06,400
tons.

2175
01:23:06,400 --> 01:23:08,800
So, taking us forward to May 30th of

2176
01:23:08,800 --> 01:23:10,440
2027,

2177
01:23:10,440 --> 01:23:12,640
um this is now these very variations we

2178
01:23:12,640 --> 01:23:15,400
see are really based on estimates of

2179
01:23:15,400 --> 01:23:18,920
inflow from the climate. So, the um

2180
01:23:18,920 --> 01:23:20,800
the orangeish color, that's the scenario

2181
01:23:20,800 --> 01:23:22,600
where we have the import salt and a

2182
01:23:22,600 --> 01:23:25,720
really dry warm uh climate condition.

2183
01:23:25,720 --> 01:23:28,000
That would get us to 135 g per liter in

2184
01:23:28,000 --> 01:23:29,800
the spring.

2185
01:23:29,800 --> 01:23:31,320
If we don't modify the berm, we have

2186
01:23:31,320 --> 01:23:32,840
really wet cool condition, the model

2187
01:23:32,840 --> 01:23:35,120
indicates we would be at 110 g per liter

2188
01:23:35,120 --> 01:23:38,080
in the spring of 2027. Huge range, but

2189
01:23:38,080 --> 01:23:41,480
gives you some idea of um the effect of

2190
01:23:41,480 --> 01:23:42,960
the berm modification, the effect of

2191
01:23:42,960 --> 01:23:44,720
climate different climates. And I guess

2192
01:23:44,720 --> 01:23:46,640
I'll point out that for the scenario

2193
01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:49,320
where you do raise lower the berm, this

2194
01:23:49,320 --> 01:23:51,400
kind of orangey one,

2195
01:23:51,400 --> 01:23:55,320
that one alone, given um kind of a wet

2196
01:23:55,320 --> 01:23:56,800
Wait, that would take us Okay, I'm not

2197
01:23:56,800 --> 01:23:58,040
going to try to do this do this on the

2198
01:23:58,040 --> 01:24:00,360
fly. There's that big range you can kind

2199
01:24:00,360 --> 01:24:02,000
of see there.

2200
01:24:02,000 --> 01:24:03,960
And then we'll get going further to

2201
01:24:03,960 --> 01:24:06,800
October 30th of 2027, still assuming the

2202
01:24:06,800 --> 01:24:08,320
mass has been the same, that things are

2203
01:24:08,320 --> 01:24:10,240
disconnected. Um

2204
01:24:10,240 --> 01:24:11,560
you can kind of see where that would

2205
01:24:11,560 --> 01:24:13,840
shift everything. So, for the scenario

2206
01:24:13,840 --> 01:24:16,440
where we did import salt over the summer

2207
01:24:16,440 --> 01:24:19,080
of 2026, that gets us to 165 g per

2208
01:24:19,080 --> 01:24:21,880
liter. And then for the

2209
01:24:21,880 --> 01:24:23,280
condition where the berm was not

2210
01:24:23,280 --> 01:24:25,560
modified in May um for a wet cool

2211
01:24:25,560 --> 01:24:27,440
condition you get 125 grams per liter.

2212
01:24:27,440 --> 01:24:28,960
And so again, I just highlighted the

2213
01:24:28,960 --> 01:24:30,720
kind of the extremes of what these could

2214
01:24:30,720 --> 01:24:33,280
be just to give you a sense, but I will

2215
01:24:33,280 --> 01:24:34,240
say

2216
01:24:34,240 --> 01:24:36,640
in both of these if if the berm is

2217
01:24:36,640 --> 01:24:38,680
raised in November this you know this

2218
01:24:38,680 --> 01:24:41,040
November what you have to consider is

2219
01:24:41,040 --> 01:24:41,960
the

2220
01:24:41,960 --> 01:24:43,320
then you're setting yourself up for a

2221
01:24:43,320 --> 01:24:45,280
head differential. So why while we're

2222
01:24:45,280 --> 01:24:49,240
exceeding um 100 you know this 160 grams

2223
01:24:49,240 --> 01:24:50,800
per liter optimal in this kind of

2224
01:24:50,800 --> 01:24:53,600
extreme condition that's highlighted in

2225
01:24:53,600 --> 01:24:55,800
orange

2226
01:24:55,800 --> 01:24:58,120
you are going to be in an export

2227
01:24:58,120 --> 01:24:59,920
paradigm um

2228
01:24:59,920 --> 01:25:01,880
from here on out without the ability to

2229
01:25:01,880 --> 01:25:03,680
import salt from the north arm. And

2230
01:25:03,680 --> 01:25:05,200
that's just something Ben and I kind of

2231
01:25:05,200 --> 01:25:07,240
discussed is like when you modify the

2232
01:25:07,240 --> 01:25:09,720
berm maybe you're shifting your salinity

2233
01:25:09,720 --> 01:25:11,840
range in the south arm but you're also

2234
01:25:11,840 --> 01:25:13,600
um kind of setting yourself up for a

2235
01:25:13,600 --> 01:25:15,400
certain condition moving forward which

2236
01:25:15,400 --> 01:25:16,560
is that

2237
01:25:16,560 --> 01:25:18,000
you know when you lower the berm or

2238
01:25:18,000 --> 01:25:19,280
whatever you were going to going to do

2239
01:25:19,280 --> 01:25:20,800
you're going to have a head differential

2240
01:25:20,800 --> 01:25:22,120
so that the south is going to be

2241
01:25:22,120 --> 01:25:24,360
exporting um into the north arm. You're

2242
01:25:24,360 --> 01:25:26,480
going to be in a paradigm where you lose

2243
01:25:26,480 --> 01:25:29,040
salt mass after modification of the berm

2244
01:25:29,040 --> 01:25:31,080
raising of the berm I should say.

2245
01:25:31,080 --> 01:25:33,760
So this is these are the this is it. So

2246
01:25:33,760 --> 01:25:36,640
if you guys have any questions or um

2247
01:25:36,640 --> 01:25:39,400
this helps facilitate what could happen.

2248
01:25:39,400 --> 01:25:41,400
Does that make sense? The walking this

2249
01:25:41,400 --> 01:25:45,550
okay.

2250
01:25:45,560 --> 01:25:47,440
So we need to crystal ball see what the

2251
01:25:47,440 --> 01:25:48,840
next 5 years

2252
01:25:48,840 --> 01:25:54,190
Exactly. Yes. Can we work on that?

2253
01:25:54,200 --> 01:25:56,120
I I do think though

2254
01:25:56,120 --> 01:25:59,040
you know this erosion that's happened

2255
01:25:59,040 --> 01:26:00,360
like we're

2256
01:26:00,360 --> 01:26:02,440
we've been pretty lucky that we're now

2257
01:26:02,440 --> 01:26:04,960
only exporting did you say 28 million

2258
01:26:04,960 --> 01:26:06,240
tons a year?

2259
01:26:06,240 --> 01:26:07,360
And so we're this kind of like

2260
01:26:07,360 --> 01:26:09,280
equilibrium and I think it'll continue

2261
01:26:09,280 --> 01:26:10,200
to

2262
01:26:10,200 --> 01:26:12,920
probably erode from time to time. And so

2263
01:26:12,920 --> 01:26:14,200
part of me just thinks that maybe we

2264
01:26:14,200 --> 01:26:15,200
just

2265
01:26:15,200 --> 01:26:17,440
leave it where it's at and continue to

2266
01:26:17,440 --> 01:26:20,560
monitor and then react if it seems like

2267
01:26:20,560 --> 01:26:21,840
things are not going the way we want it

2268
01:26:21,840 --> 01:26:24,520
to, but you know, like when Christine

2269
01:26:24,520 --> 01:26:26,520
and I discussed this, I think the idea

2270
01:26:26,520 --> 01:26:28,320
of being able to get it, you know, bring

2271
01:26:28,320 --> 01:26:31,040
back some of that salt and nutrients,

2272
01:26:31,040 --> 01:26:32,480
you know, like this is another portion

2273
01:26:32,480 --> 01:26:34,040
of that that we need to consider and I

2274
01:26:34,040 --> 01:26:35,960
think we're highly considering changing

2275
01:26:35,960 --> 01:26:38,280
this committee's name to snack so we can

2276
01:26:38,280 --> 01:26:40,160
incorporate nutrients into the uh

2277
01:26:40,160 --> 01:26:41,240
salinity.

2278
01:26:41,240 --> 01:26:43,920
But uh but those are some of the things

2279
01:26:43,920 --> 01:26:45,240
that I think we have to seriously

2280
01:26:45,240 --> 01:26:46,600
consider, but it does put us into a

2281
01:26:46,600 --> 01:26:49,600
position where, you know, if we in 2027,

2282
01:26:49,600 --> 01:26:51,520
which it's kind of crazy to think about

2283
01:26:51,520 --> 01:26:53,800
um that far out right now, it does put

2284
01:26:53,800 --> 01:26:55,280
us in a position where then we would

2285
01:26:55,280 --> 01:26:57,480
continue in that export paradigm, but

2286
01:26:57,480 --> 01:26:58,960
then are we just set ourselves up for

2287
01:26:58,960 --> 01:27:01,000
just doing this all the time and forever

2288
01:27:01,000 --> 01:27:02,960
or can we find that stable condition

2289
01:27:02,960 --> 01:27:04,880
where the berm

2290
01:27:04,880 --> 01:27:06,720
you know, we get just enough from the

2291
01:27:06,720 --> 01:27:09,040
north arm, but not too much. I mean, I I

2292
01:27:09,040 --> 01:27:10,520
tend to think that maybe that's where we

2293
01:27:10,520 --> 01:27:12,040
want to go is maybe lowering it just

2294
01:27:12,040 --> 01:27:15,720
enough to try to keep the export uh at

2295
01:27:15,720 --> 01:27:17,960
zero.

2296
01:27:17,960 --> 01:27:24,390
I don't know.

2297
01:27:24,400 --> 01:27:26,040
Yeah, that's a real problem, Evan,

2298
01:27:26,040 --> 01:27:29,240
because if we continue in this drought,

2299
01:27:29,240 --> 01:27:31,560
then we know that unless we can get a

2300
01:27:31,560 --> 01:27:34,040
significant amount of

2301
01:27:34,040 --> 01:27:35,920
uh additional leased water into the

2302
01:27:35,920 --> 01:27:37,800
lake, the lake's going to keep going

2303
01:27:37,800 --> 01:27:41,000
down and the only way to prevent that is

2304
01:27:41,000 --> 01:27:43,200
to reduce the evaporative surface, which

2305
01:27:43,200 --> 01:27:45,840
is making it a smaller lake shutting off

2306
01:27:45,840 --> 01:27:47,240
the north arm.

2307
01:27:47,240 --> 01:27:51,190
Then we lose that tool.

2308
01:27:51,200 --> 01:27:53,160
Between a rock and a hard place here.

2309
01:27:53,160 --> 01:27:58,600
>> I'll say too that I mean, there's quite a bit of regulatory uh you know,

2310
01:27:58,600 --> 01:28:01,000
oversight on on this. Like we can't keep

2311
01:28:01,000 --> 01:28:03,840
the north arm, you know, segregated from

2312
01:28:03,840 --> 01:28:05,680
the south arm and and make a lower

2313
01:28:05,680 --> 01:28:08,120
smaller lake by by uh

2314
01:28:08,120 --> 01:28:09,480
you know, recommendation or just by

2315
01:28:09,480 --> 01:28:11,160
doing that. It

2316
01:28:11,160 --> 01:28:12,520
There's a There's a lot of strings tied

2317
01:28:12,520 --> 01:28:14,480
to that. So, we can only do that I think

2318
01:28:14,480 --> 01:28:16,800
for 18 months and then we have to lower

2319
01:28:16,800 --> 01:28:20,120
it again. So, there's there's things that we have

2320
01:28:20,120 --> 01:28:21,640
to consider, but I do think when we can

2321
01:28:21,640 --> 01:28:23,640
buy ourselves like another like if we're

2322
01:28:23,640 --> 01:28:25,480
entering into a drought year, if we can

2323
01:28:25,480 --> 01:28:27,840
buy an extra year of keeping you know my

2324
01:28:27,840 --> 01:28:29,280
curly lights wetted, keeping the

2325
01:28:29,280 --> 01:28:31,400
salinity where we wanted, keeping boat

2326
01:28:31,400 --> 01:28:34,040
harbors functional, keeping you know,

2327
01:28:34,040 --> 01:28:36,920
all these things intact.

2328
01:28:36,920 --> 01:28:37,920
Like that's something we have to

2329
01:28:37,920 --> 01:28:39,280
consider as well and that's not

2330
01:28:39,280 --> 01:28:40,560
something that we were able to really

2331
01:28:40,560 --> 01:28:42,320
talk about or consider

2332
01:28:42,320 --> 01:28:44,440
prior to the legislation in the special

2333
01:28:44,440 --> 01:28:46,760
session.

2334
01:28:46,760 --> 01:28:49,520
And And don't don't forget

2335
01:28:49,520 --> 01:28:53,520
we can reverse flow like come September.

2336
01:28:53,520 --> 01:28:55,960
You know, we shut our our pumps off on

2337
01:28:55,960 --> 01:28:58,640
Promontory Point. You can reverse flow

2338
01:28:58,640 --> 01:28:59,760
and

2339
01:28:59,760 --> 01:29:01,800
you know, continue to move North Arm

2340
01:29:01,800 --> 01:29:03,080
brine

2341
01:29:03,080 --> 01:29:04,160
you know,

2342
01:29:04,160 --> 01:29:05,880
controlled

2343
01:29:05,880 --> 01:29:07,440
you know, into the South Arm if there

2344
01:29:07,440 --> 01:29:08,600
was a

2345
01:29:08,600 --> 01:29:11,600
dire nitrogen need. You know, so so that

2346
01:29:11,600 --> 01:29:13,440
could operate.

2347
01:29:13,440 --> 01:29:17,440
I'll say October through through March.

2348
01:29:17,440 --> 01:29:19,680
You know, so that's not an insignificant

2349
01:29:19,680 --> 01:29:25,750
quantity.

2350
01:29:25,760 --> 01:29:28,240
So, So, for for now though, just to make

2351
01:29:28,240 --> 01:29:30,760
sure we're all on the same page, we're

2352
01:29:30,760 --> 01:29:34,120
not doing anything until we all get back

2353
01:29:34,120 --> 01:29:35,280
together and decide we need to do

2354
01:29:35,280 --> 01:29:36,800
something or does anybody feel like

2355
01:29:36,800 --> 01:29:38,000
there's something that needs to be done

2356
01:29:38,000 --> 01:29:40,960
between now and the next SAC meeting

2357
01:29:40,960 --> 01:29:42,280
because I

2358
01:29:42,280 --> 01:29:44,160
personally I feel like I'm I'm just like

2359
01:29:44,160 --> 01:29:46,120
on the fence could go either way

2360
01:29:46,120 --> 01:29:47,360
and there's a lot of benefits pros and

2361
01:29:47,360 --> 01:29:50,120
cons on either either way we look at it,

2362
01:29:50,120 --> 01:29:51,040
but I don't know that we have enough

2363
01:29:51,040 --> 01:29:52,640
information to make decisions based on

2364
01:29:52,640 --> 01:29:55,640
nutrients yet and I also don't know that

2365
01:29:55,640 --> 01:29:57,880
it makes a ton of sense to do anything

2366
01:29:57,880 --> 01:30:00,120
before we know you know, what this next

2367
01:30:00,120 --> 01:30:02,520
storm looks like or you know, how hot

2368
01:30:02,520 --> 01:30:03,920
and dry the summer was. I mean, there's

2369
01:30:03,920 --> 01:30:05,480
just so many variables that it seems to

2370
01:30:05,480 --> 01:30:07,520
me like waiting this out a little bit

2371
01:30:07,520 --> 01:30:08,840
and reconvening if we think there's

2372
01:30:08,840 --> 01:30:10,680
something to do would be the the way

2373
01:30:10,680 --> 01:30:13,440
that I'd like to go forward.

2374
01:30:13,440 --> 01:30:15,040
Yeah, I'm definitely on board with that.

2375
01:30:15,040 --> 01:30:17,240
I just wanted nitrogen in the

2376
01:30:17,240 --> 01:30:19,240
conversation and I think we're I think

2377
01:30:19,240 --> 01:30:21,080
we're there because I mean this speaks

2378
01:30:21,080 --> 01:30:23,800
to Thomas's trepidation and mine of like

2379
01:30:23,800 --> 01:30:26,280
we're right back to 165

2380
01:30:26,280 --> 01:30:28,000
if everything shakes out in the negative

2381
01:30:28,000 --> 01:30:31,240
way like we think it might. So.

2382
01:30:31,240 --> 01:30:33,160
But as long as we have, you know, I

2383
01:30:33,160 --> 01:30:35,000
agree with Ben that finding kind of that

2384
01:30:35,000 --> 01:30:37,560
middle ground of maybe we

2385
01:30:37,560 --> 01:30:39,720
lower the berm to some

2386
01:30:39,720 --> 01:30:41,360
lower than it is now but not all the

2387
01:30:41,360 --> 01:30:43,320
way. Maybe there is some middle ground

2388
01:30:43,320 --> 01:30:45,800
and then we can tighten up this range a

2389
01:30:45,800 --> 01:30:47,880
little bit and that's kind of the

2390
01:30:47,880 --> 01:30:51,160
homework for this group is

2391
01:30:51,160 --> 01:30:53,160
run what numbers we have and

2392
01:30:53,160 --> 01:30:54,400
get back together and see what's going

2393
01:30:54,400 --> 01:30:56,240
to be the best option going forward.

2394
01:30:56,240 --> 01:31:00,680
>> Is there a way to, you know, with the erosion that's occurred, is there a

2395
01:31:00,680 --> 01:31:03,280
way to model what a uniform, you know,

2396
01:31:03,280 --> 01:31:07,000
berm would look like at 4186, 4187 just

2397
01:31:07,000 --> 01:31:08,720
to know if we were able to modify that

2398
01:31:08,720 --> 01:31:10,600
and see if, you know, what would that

2399
01:31:10,600 --> 01:31:12,760
look like? Like could we try to figure

2400
01:31:12,760 --> 01:31:14,880
out what that zero export looks like

2401
01:31:14,880 --> 01:31:16,240
where it's communicating just enough

2402
01:31:16,240 --> 01:31:17,640
that we're maybe getting some nutrients

2403
01:31:17,640 --> 01:31:19,880
back but during runoff we're, you know,

2404
01:31:19,880 --> 01:31:22,320
exporting a little bit like

2405
01:31:22,320 --> 01:31:23,800
do you think there's any way to try to

2406
01:31:23,800 --> 01:31:25,800
figure out how we balance the checkbook

2407
01:31:25,800 --> 01:31:29,390
on this one and

2408
01:31:29,400 --> 01:31:31,000
Um yeah, we can definitely run the

2409
01:31:31,000 --> 01:31:32,920
hydraulics. Jeff, you guys have done

2410
01:31:32,920 --> 01:31:33,960
that, right?

2411
01:31:33,960 --> 01:31:34,400
Jacobs?

2412
01:31:34,400 --> 01:31:37,480
>> We Yeah, with the CFD model.

2413
01:31:37,480 --> 01:31:39,440
Um I think that can be done.

2414
01:31:39,440 --> 01:31:41,200
Um

2415
01:31:41,200 --> 01:31:43,560
it's just a matter of identifying

2416
01:31:43,560 --> 01:31:45,120
all defining all the different variables

2417
01:31:45,120 --> 01:31:46,520
that go into it.

2418
01:31:46,520 --> 01:31:48,600
Um but I think that I guess that's what

2419
01:31:48,600 --> 01:31:49,960
I

2420
01:31:49,960 --> 01:31:51,600
I'm just thinking over the next month or

2421
01:31:51,600 --> 01:31:52,680
two.

2422
01:31:52,680 --> 01:31:54,160
I mean this week there will be a lot of

2423
01:31:54,160 --> 01:31:56,160
discussion at the TAG meeting on on

2424
01:31:56,160 --> 01:31:58,720
nutrients and

2425
01:31:58,720 --> 01:32:00,720
which hopefully the outcome from that

2426
01:32:00,720 --> 01:32:02,920
can be, you know, what's the sense of

2427
01:32:02,920 --> 01:32:04,400
urgency

2428
01:32:04,400 --> 01:32:07,480
on this and, you know, what's

2429
01:32:07,480 --> 01:32:09,240
what might the trajectory be over the

2430
01:32:09,240 --> 01:32:11,800
next year or two? Um,

2431
01:32:11,800 --> 01:32:13,760
cuz we're

2432
01:32:13,760 --> 01:32:15,680
So, nutrients just adds another variable

2433
01:32:15,680 --> 01:32:17,880
to the mix, you know, where we're we've

2434
01:32:17,880 --> 01:32:19,560
been focused on well, what might the

2435
01:32:19,560 --> 01:32:21,080
inflows be

2436
01:32:21,080 --> 01:32:23,320
and how do we manage the salinity based

2437
01:32:23,320 --> 01:32:26,480
on that? And now now we have another

2438
01:32:26,480 --> 01:32:29,360
variable that works in opposite of

2439
01:32:29,360 --> 01:32:30,720
salinity.

2440
01:32:30,720 --> 01:32:35,440
And so, that makes our fine line even

2441
01:32:35,440 --> 01:32:37,680
narrower um, to try to balance all those

2442
01:32:37,680 --> 01:32:39,320
different things.

2443
01:32:39,320 --> 01:32:41,840
Um, so I think the key to bracketing

2444
01:32:41,840 --> 01:32:43,200
that is just trying to understand well,

2445
01:32:43,200 --> 01:32:45,040
how urgent are we? And I think what you

2446
01:32:45,040 --> 01:32:47,880
did here with the salinity is fantastic

2447
01:32:47,880 --> 01:32:50,080
cuz it gives us an idea of

2448
01:32:50,080 --> 01:32:52,680
what's the worst that could be um,

2449
01:32:52,680 --> 01:32:54,720
and where might be a more probable

2450
01:32:54,720 --> 01:32:56,760
approach to it.

2451
01:32:56,760 --> 01:33:00,040
And I think if we could somehow

2452
01:33:00,040 --> 01:33:02,960
take the nutrient and follow the same

2453
01:33:02,960 --> 01:33:05,080
assumptions you did to see, you know,

2454
01:33:05,080 --> 01:33:07,000
what might happen if we do these two

2455
01:33:07,000 --> 01:33:08,720
scenarios

2456
01:33:08,720 --> 01:33:11,480
for the nutrients and then we can and

2457
01:33:11,480 --> 01:33:13,040
then it's going to come down to what's

2458
01:33:13,040 --> 01:33:15,120
worse.

2459
01:33:15,120 --> 01:33:18,000
I I think um,

2460
01:33:18,000 --> 01:33:20,680
cuz unless

2461
01:33:20,680 --> 01:33:22,280
So, I I mean, I think it over the next

2462
01:33:22,280 --> 01:33:23,840
month So, this week we have the tag

2463
01:33:23,840 --> 01:33:27,040
meeting and then if if we can try to

2464
01:33:27,040 --> 01:33:28,920
estimate well, what would the berm need

2465
01:33:28,920 --> 01:33:30,840
to be to try to back to get to a net

2466
01:33:30,840 --> 01:33:33,200
zero flux? Um,

2467
01:33:33,200 --> 01:33:35,560
cuz that would help bring some nutrients

2468
01:33:35,560 --> 01:33:38,160
back into it. And

2469
01:33:38,160 --> 01:33:39,920
So, my where I'm going with this is that

2470
01:33:39,920 --> 01:33:42,000
perhaps rather than having a meeting our

2471
01:33:42,000 --> 01:33:44,280
next meeting in June, we might need to

2472
01:33:44,280 --> 01:33:51,520
have a a meeting in between just to to focus on this specific question.

2473
01:33:51,520 --> 01:33:52,840
And

2474
01:33:52,840 --> 01:33:55,240
just to try to grapple with, you know,

2475
01:33:55,240 --> 01:33:57,880
how how can we balance this? And do we

2476
01:33:57,880 --> 01:34:00,000
want to make a a change of the berm now

2477
01:34:00,000 --> 01:34:03,880
or should we just wait till November?

2478
01:34:03,880 --> 01:34:06,360
Jeff. Should Christine should should we

2479
01:34:06,360 --> 01:34:08,440
make a calculation that would bring us

2480
01:34:08,440 --> 01:34:10,120
somewhere in between on a berm

2481
01:34:10,120 --> 01:34:11,880
modification?

2482
01:34:11,880 --> 01:34:15,960
Where we would lower the berm but not

2483
01:34:15,960 --> 01:34:19,120
entirely to a level where we end up

2484
01:34:19,120 --> 01:34:22,720
between the orange and the blue.

2485
01:34:22,720 --> 01:34:23,760
Is that

2486
01:34:23,760 --> 01:34:24,840
something we can do?

2487
01:34:24,840 --> 01:34:27,280
>> Meaning a specific berm elevation?

2488
01:34:27,280 --> 01:34:28,160
>> berm elevation?

2489
01:34:28,160 --> 01:34:35,360
>> I think we would need to talk to Sam or Jeff because I think it's it's about there's a number of factors

2490
01:34:35,360 --> 01:34:36,840
but it's all about hydraulic head, you

2491
01:34:36,840 --> 01:34:38,760
know, the concentration in each side of

2492
01:34:38,760 --> 01:34:40,600
the arm, you know, the difference in

2493
01:34:40,600 --> 01:34:42,360
elevation between the two arms and

2494
01:34:42,360 --> 01:34:44,840
really it's predicting flow and and each

2495
01:34:44,840 --> 01:34:47,200
side. And so I can look at historic our

2496
01:34:47,200 --> 01:34:49,720
historical record and and

2497
01:34:49,720 --> 01:34:51,200
but really nothing is going to be

2498
01:34:51,200 --> 01:34:52,880
representative of another berm

2499
01:34:52,880 --> 01:34:55,480
condition. And so I think it really will

2500
01:34:55,480 --> 01:34:57,080
be working with Sam and his team to say,

2501
01:34:57,080 --> 01:35:00,280
"Okay, what if we had a berm at 4186 or

2502
01:35:00,280 --> 01:35:02,280
something straight and then how might

2503
01:35:02,280 --> 01:35:04,400
that affect our north to south flow and

2504
01:35:04,400 --> 01:35:05,920
our south to north flow?" And really the

2505
01:35:05,920 --> 01:35:08,200
calculation is easy. We just need net

2506
01:35:08,200 --> 01:35:10,080
salt flux and we can assume a certain

2507
01:35:10,080 --> 01:35:12,280
amount of what we can measure the the

2508
01:35:12,280 --> 01:35:13,800
salt in the north arm. We can easily

2509
01:35:13,800 --> 01:35:15,200
measure the salt fluxes. It's just

2510
01:35:15,200 --> 01:35:18,320
dialing in, you know, what the dis you

2511
01:35:18,320 --> 01:35:20,040
know, what the discharge will actually

2512
01:35:20,040 --> 01:35:21,800
be estimating discharge under that

2513
01:35:21,800 --> 01:35:23,360
condition. That's the hard part. The

2514
01:35:23,360 --> 01:35:25,080
salt flux calculation isn't hard but you

2515
01:35:25,080 --> 01:35:27,200
know, making that salt flux a net zero

2516
01:35:27,200 --> 01:35:28,960
essentially I think is what I'm hearing.

2517
01:35:28,960 --> 01:35:31,040
Um and then seeing if Sam has insight in

2518
01:35:31,040 --> 01:35:34,160
how we you know, what what cross section

2519
01:35:34,160 --> 01:35:36,400
shape gets us there for the conditions

2520
01:35:36,400 --> 01:35:39,520
we have at a given moment.

2521
01:35:39,520 --> 01:35:41,640
Mhm.

2522
01:35:41,640 --> 01:35:43,920
Jeff, I I like your idea of reconvening

2523
01:35:43,920 --> 01:35:46,160
before our June meeting um since we know

2524
01:35:46,160 --> 01:35:48,920
that the runoff is probably going to end

2525
01:35:48,920 --> 01:35:50,720
much sooner than it normally would. I

2526
01:35:50,720 --> 01:35:52,360
would suggest maybe we should

2527
01:35:52,360 --> 01:35:54,040
you know, shoot for something

2528
01:35:54,040 --> 01:35:55,480
maybe at the issues forum. We all sit

2529
01:35:55,480 --> 01:35:58,400
down and discuss this at lunch. But

2530
01:35:58,400 --> 01:36:00,800
or maybe the week after. But

2531
01:36:00,800 --> 01:36:02,960
something where we can have the time of

2532
01:36:02,960 --> 01:36:04,600
kind of seeing when peak runoff is or

2533
01:36:04,600 --> 01:36:07,480
when runoff is finished and know if you

2534
01:36:07,480 --> 01:36:08,480
know, what the summer's looking like.

2535
01:36:08,480 --> 01:36:09,880
We'll probably have a better forecast of

2536
01:36:09,880 --> 01:36:11,480
weather and know what the spring

2537
01:36:11,480 --> 01:36:13,680
precipitation looked like. So, maybe we

2538
01:36:13,680 --> 01:36:16,480
get together then and then come ready to

2539
01:36:16,480 --> 01:36:18,920
discuss whether or not like focus on

2540
01:36:18,920 --> 01:36:21,000
that whether we want to decide if we're

2541
01:36:21,000 --> 01:36:23,240
going to modify the berm leave it the

2542
01:36:23,240 --> 01:36:26,080
same or do it in the fall. Mhm. And

2543
01:36:26,080 --> 01:36:28,480
that'll I think that should just be the

2544
01:36:28,480 --> 01:36:29,720
really the sole discussion. Maybe some

2545
01:36:29,720 --> 01:36:32,800
forecasts and then jump right into what

2546
01:36:32,800 --> 01:36:34,840
we all think we need to do. Right.

2547
01:36:34,840 --> 01:36:37,280
And a nutrient iso-mass plot. Oh, yeah.

2548
01:36:37,280 --> 01:36:38,520
We're going to enter a new world

2549
01:36:38,520 --> 01:36:41,720
together with a nutrient iso-mass plot.

2550
01:36:41,720 --> 01:36:43,240
Which is going to be hard cuz it's not

2551
01:36:43,240 --> 01:36:44,680
conservative and we don't know all the

2552
01:36:44,680 --> 01:36:46,200
nutrient cycling mechanisms, but we can

2553
01:36:46,200 --> 01:36:48,950
try.

2554
01:36:48,960 --> 01:36:52,440
And I think that net zero salinity

2555
01:36:52,440 --> 01:36:54,280
scenario just in my mind if we find

2556
01:36:54,280 --> 01:36:56,240
that, you know, whether it's 86 or 87,

2557
01:36:56,240 --> 01:36:59,080
whatever where we're importing just as

2558
01:36:59,080 --> 01:37:00,880
much salt as we're exporting, we'll

2559
01:37:00,880 --> 01:37:03,160
actually

2560
01:37:03,160 --> 01:37:04,960
if everything shakes out the way it is

2561
01:37:04,960 --> 01:37:06,320
in my head

2562
01:37:06,320 --> 01:37:08,160
and that what I understand in my limited

2563
01:37:08,160 --> 01:37:09,880
understanding of it is we should be a

2564
01:37:09,880 --> 01:37:11,840
net import of nitrogen from north to

2565
01:37:11,840 --> 01:37:14,000
south, which would benefit the South

2566
01:37:14,000 --> 01:37:15,680
arm.

2567
01:37:15,680 --> 01:37:17,720
Yeah. So, I think if we can run those

2568
01:37:17,720 --> 01:37:20,600
models and have that for a meeting in

2569
01:37:20,600 --> 01:37:22,480
you know, the next before June. Yeah. I

2570
01:37:22,480 --> 01:37:24,320
think that would be a good conversation

2571
01:37:24,320 --> 01:37:26,040
to have and a timely conversation to

2572
01:37:26,040 --> 01:37:27,720
have. And then yeah, we can make a

2573
01:37:27,720 --> 01:37:30,440
decision based on those later and Right.

2574
01:37:30,440 --> 01:37:32,280
maybe it is leave it alone.

2575
01:37:32,280 --> 01:37:33,440
But then we'll know.

2576
01:37:33,440 --> 01:37:34,920
Right.

2577
01:37:34,920 --> 01:37:36,080
Great.

2578
01:37:36,080 --> 01:37:38,160
Well, let's um

2579
01:37:38,160 --> 01:37:39,400
we'll we'll we'll schedule the next

2580
01:37:39,400 --> 01:37:41,800
meeting here in a little bit. Um

2581
01:37:41,800 --> 01:37:43,760
but I guess moving on

2582
01:37:43,760 --> 01:37:45,080
there's and there's so much that we

2583
01:37:45,080 --> 01:37:47,640
could talk about with that. Um but let's

2584
01:37:47,640 --> 01:37:49,240
given the discussion that's going to

2585
01:37:49,240 --> 01:37:50,960
happen on Wednesday

2586
01:37:50,960 --> 01:37:52,680
um, and the modeling questions that we

2587
01:37:52,680 --> 01:37:55,400
have, I think that'll really help inform

2588
01:37:55,400 --> 01:37:57,600
the next our next time where we discuss

2589
01:37:57,600 --> 01:37:58,840
this. So,

2590
01:37:58,840 --> 01:38:01,960
I think that's a good move. Um, I think

2591
01:38:01,960 --> 01:38:04,240
I guess I I'm looking at the time here

2592
01:38:04,240 --> 01:38:06,120
and wanted to just make sure we can

2593
01:38:06,120 --> 01:38:09,000
touch on the last few agenda items. Um,

2594
01:38:09,000 --> 01:38:12,480
the the next one was was the protocol

2595
01:38:12,480 --> 01:38:13,600
that

2596
01:38:13,600 --> 01:38:15,880
Christine's been using

2597
01:38:15,880 --> 01:38:18,720
that we've been using and just wanted to

2598
01:38:18,720 --> 01:38:20,560
see if if there were any remaining

2599
01:38:20,560 --> 01:38:22,240
comments. And Christine, now that this

2600
01:38:22,240 --> 01:38:25,000
has gone through the full USGS review

2601
01:38:25,000 --> 01:38:28,040
and approval process, correct?

2602
01:38:28,040 --> 01:38:30,080
Yes, this is um, ready to be published

2603
01:38:30,080 --> 01:38:33,080
whenever this group is says it's ready.

2604
01:38:33,080 --> 01:38:34,440
Great.

2605
01:38:34,440 --> 01:38:36,600
So, any I guess any questions from the

2606
01:38:36,600 --> 01:38:42,510
committee on this?

2607
01:38:42,520 --> 01:38:48,640
Any concerns with approving it? And if not, entertain a motion to approve

2608
01:38:48,640 --> 01:38:51,710
it.

2609
01:38:51,720 --> 01:38:52,960
Thomas?

2610
01:38:52,960 --> 01:38:56,360
Move. So moved. And Andrew second it.

2611
01:38:56,360 --> 01:38:58,200
All right. And I guess the vote with the

2612
01:38:58,200 --> 01:39:00,600
committee members, um,

2613
01:39:00,600 --> 01:39:03,760
all those in favor say I.

2614
01:39:03,760 --> 01:39:06,830
I.

2615
01:39:06,840 --> 01:39:10,880
And any any

2616
01:39:10,880 --> 01:39:12,560
one within

2617
01:39:12,560 --> 01:39:15,990
does not want to approve it?

2618
01:39:16,000 --> 01:39:17,840
Or any any further discussion? I guess

2619
01:39:17,840 --> 01:39:19,560
this is the last chance you got if you

2620
01:39:19,560 --> 01:39:24,350
have any more questions or concerns.

2621
01:39:24,360 --> 01:39:26,000
All right. Well, I think it's passed

2622
01:39:26,000 --> 01:39:29,160
unanimously and so we will approve that

2623
01:39:29,160 --> 01:39:30,240
and

2624
01:39:30,240 --> 01:39:31,640
um,

2625
01:39:31,640 --> 01:39:33,960
so I guess from a logistics standpoint,

2626
01:39:33,960 --> 01:39:36,680
and USGS will publish this, correct? And

2627
01:39:36,680 --> 01:39:38,800
then that'll be available. That's the

2628
01:39:38,800 --> 01:39:40,520
question I had, actually. Is if we want

2629
01:39:40,520 --> 01:39:42,480
to put it on a state website or if you

2630
01:39:42,480 --> 01:39:45,000
if we need USGS to host it. Technically,

2631
01:39:45,000 --> 01:39:46,640
anything that gets published by USGS

2632
01:39:46,640 --> 01:39:48,080
needs to be publicly available. So,

2633
01:39:48,080 --> 01:39:50,000
either we figure out a place to host it

2634
01:39:50,000 --> 01:39:52,200
or if there's a centrally located

2635
01:39:52,200 --> 01:39:53,720
website that Forestry, Fire, and State

2636
01:39:53,720 --> 01:39:55,080
Lands or another entity would like to

2637
01:39:55,080 --> 01:39:56,440
host it, then

2638
01:39:56,440 --> 01:39:58,480
that's great. Right.

2639
01:39:58,480 --> 01:40:01,600
I guess I think previous publications

2640
01:40:01,600 --> 01:40:03,360
that we've approved from this committee

2641
01:40:03,360 --> 01:40:07,000
have gone on the USGS or UGS.

2642
01:40:07,000 --> 01:40:08,880
Yeah, we'd be happy to

2643
01:40:08,880 --> 01:40:10,600
publish that. Great. We just I just sent

2644
01:40:10,600 --> 01:40:12,880
it to you, Andrew. Sure. Okay. Awesome.

2645
01:40:12,880 --> 01:40:13,840
Thanks. Great.

2646
01:40:13,840 --> 01:40:15,280
>> I did and may I um

2647
01:40:15,280 --> 01:40:17,320
>> Mhm. share one thing. I did prepare

2648
01:40:17,320 --> 01:40:18,600
slides in case anybody wants to go

2649
01:40:18,600 --> 01:40:20,320
through the method for like the seventh

2650
01:40:20,320 --> 01:40:22,880
time. But, one thing that you had asked

2651
01:40:22,880 --> 01:40:25,280
me to do, Jeff, was to kind of mock up

2652
01:40:25,280 --> 01:40:26,160
what this would look like on the

2653
01:40:26,160 --> 01:40:29,040
hydromapper. Mhm. So, this is I had our

2654
01:40:29,040 --> 01:40:31,240
web developer or maintainer do that. And

2655
01:40:31,240 --> 01:40:33,320
so, currently, this is kind of what you

2656
01:40:33,320 --> 01:40:34,840
see on the homepage. I know this is

2657
01:40:34,840 --> 01:40:36,880
small, but this top plot is what we have

2658
01:40:36,880 --> 01:40:39,680
now, which is salinity showing at 3510

2659
01:40:39,680 --> 01:40:41,240
and at Saltair. These are just raw

2660
01:40:41,240 --> 01:40:44,120
measurements of salinity. Um and if we

2661
01:40:44,120 --> 01:40:46,240
wanted to put in this upper brine layer

2662
01:40:46,240 --> 01:40:48,560
volume weighted estimate, which is the,

2663
01:40:48,560 --> 01:40:50,840
you know, the calculated value, um and

2664
01:40:50,840 --> 01:40:52,600
put that on the hydromapper, I just

2665
01:40:52,600 --> 01:40:53,760
wanted to show you that's what this

2666
01:40:53,760 --> 01:40:55,920
would look like. Um and it and ask if we

2667
01:40:55,920 --> 01:40:57,800
wanted to make that change on the

2668
01:40:57,800 --> 01:40:59,600
hydromapper website. Instead of using

2669
01:40:59,600 --> 01:41:02,360
Saltair, use this kind of calculated

2670
01:41:02,360 --> 01:41:05,870
value.

2671
01:41:05,880 --> 01:41:07,480
So, or you don't have to decide now, but

2672
01:41:07,480 --> 01:41:09,000
it's an option and this is what it looks

2673
01:41:09,000 --> 01:41:12,110
like.

2674
01:41:12,120 --> 01:41:14,400
Any comments or

2675
01:41:14,400 --> 01:41:17,430
thoughts?

2676
01:41:17,440 --> 01:41:19,480
I think we discussed this at the last

2677
01:41:19,480 --> 01:41:21,320
SAC or maybe the one before that when we

2678
01:41:21,320 --> 01:41:22,840
started this, but

2679
01:41:22,840 --> 01:41:24,600
uh you're able to do that for all that

2680
01:41:24,600 --> 01:41:27,040
data going all the way back for the

2681
01:41:27,040 --> 01:41:28,320
hydromapper, right? So, nobody would be

2682
01:41:28,320 --> 01:41:31,200
confused by a change in Yep, exactly.

2683
01:41:31,200 --> 01:41:32,880
Yeah, especially for this upper brine

2684
01:41:32,880 --> 01:41:35,040
layer cuz it's just taking the top 4 m.

2685
01:41:35,040 --> 01:41:37,840
It's less computationally subjective,

2686
01:41:37,840 --> 01:41:38,920
I'll say, because you don't have to

2687
01:41:38,920 --> 01:41:41,680
worry about the interface. So, yes. Mhm.

2688
01:41:41,680 --> 01:41:43,440
I think that's where a lot of folks that

2689
01:41:43,440 --> 01:41:45,640
are, you know, just your everyday person

2690
01:41:45,640 --> 01:41:47,080
who's worried about that goes. So, I

2691
01:41:47,080 --> 01:41:48,960
think as long as it can go back and be

2692
01:41:48,960 --> 01:41:51,080
kind of retroactive, I think that's a

2693
01:41:51,080 --> 01:41:53,520
good idea to do it this way. Okay.

2694
01:41:53,520 --> 01:41:54,800
Mhm.

2695
01:41:54,800 --> 01:41:57,320
Great. And I think I mean the the actual

2696
01:41:57,320 --> 01:41:59,520
data is still available. Mhm.

2697
01:41:59,520 --> 01:42:01,400
Definitely. And if people want to plot

2698
01:42:01,400 --> 01:42:05,160
that as well. Mhm. So, I think

2699
01:42:05,160 --> 01:42:07,040
on the salinity management plan, that

2700
01:42:07,040 --> 01:42:08,680
was one of the

2701
01:42:08,680 --> 01:42:09,840
um

2702
01:42:09,840 --> 01:42:11,560
that one of the goals of calculating

2703
01:42:11,560 --> 01:42:13,840
this upper brine layer number was so

2704
01:42:13,840 --> 01:42:17,320
that the public could kind of have a better understanding of what's

2705
01:42:17,320 --> 01:42:18,520
happening.

2706
01:42:18,520 --> 01:42:19,360
Um

2707
01:42:19,360 --> 01:42:20,640
because of the different spatial

2708
01:42:20,640 --> 01:42:25,910
differences and everything. So.

2709
01:42:25,920 --> 01:42:28,440
I I guess do we need to vote on that?

2710
01:42:28,440 --> 01:42:30,400
Should we vote? I guess any concerns

2711
01:42:30,400 --> 01:42:31,680
with

2712
01:42:31,680 --> 01:42:33,040
using that upper brine layer on the

2713
01:42:33,040 --> 01:42:35,280
hydro mapper? Just making that the

2714
01:42:35,280 --> 01:42:38,400
default number that people can see.

2715
01:42:38,400 --> 01:42:40,920
All right. We'll do that. Sounds good.

2716
01:42:40,920 --> 01:42:43,440
We will implement it.

2717
01:42:43,440 --> 01:42:45,240
Great.

2718
01:42:45,240 --> 01:42:46,760
So, um

2719
01:42:46,760 --> 01:42:49,040
as the the the other thing I wanted to

2720
01:42:49,040 --> 01:42:58,760
touch on and and I think is and I guess in light of the nutrient question, I guess it's a question I wanted to make sure we

2721
01:42:58,760 --> 01:43:00,680
have a chance to think about or talk

2722
01:43:00,680 --> 01:43:02,840
about. We have this draft salinity

2723
01:43:02,840 --> 01:43:05,080
management plan that um we've been

2724
01:43:05,080 --> 01:43:07,240
bouncing around for since last summer, I

2725
01:43:07,240 --> 01:43:08,880
think, and

2726
01:43:08,880 --> 01:43:11,160
um you know, is that something that the

2727
01:43:11,160 --> 01:43:13,880
committee would like to approve now? Um

2728
01:43:13,880 --> 01:43:16,160
we've had Now that we have an approved

2729
01:43:16,160 --> 01:43:19,200
protocol, we're using that in the as

2730
01:43:19,200 --> 01:43:22,280
part of the salinity management plan.

2731
01:43:22,280 --> 01:43:25,990
Um

2732
01:43:26,000 --> 01:43:27,960
I think the, you know, I've got the

2733
01:43:27,960 --> 01:43:29,760
slides. I don't know if we want to go

2734
01:43:29,760 --> 01:43:31,000
through I I I've gone through this a

2735
01:43:31,000 --> 01:43:32,840
couple times with with you all over the

2736
01:43:32,840 --> 01:43:34,160
last 6 months.

2737
01:43:34,160 --> 01:43:36,560
Um but is that something that you think

2738
01:43:36,560 --> 01:43:39,680
the plan is ready to be approved um as,

2739
01:43:39,680 --> 01:43:42,200
you know, for March 2026 or is that

2740
01:43:42,200 --> 01:43:45,680
something that we want to wait

2741
01:43:45,680 --> 01:43:47,360
Just before we talk about the approval,

2742
01:43:47,360 --> 01:43:49,560
can you just maybe remind everybody

2743
01:43:49,560 --> 01:43:50,680
again

2744
01:43:50,680 --> 01:43:53,040
um the, you know, the premise of like

2745
01:43:53,040 --> 01:43:54,480
what this management plan does because

2746
01:43:54,480 --> 01:43:55,680
one of the things that I was a little

2747
01:43:55,680 --> 01:43:57,160
concerned about is with the

2748
01:43:57,160 --> 01:43:58,680
ever-changing dynamic of like

2749
01:43:58,680 --> 01:44:00,880
legislation and things that happen, you

2750
01:44:00,880 --> 01:44:02,840
know, with the berm or other things that

2751
01:44:02,840 --> 01:44:05,720
might influence salt. Um you know, even

2752
01:44:05,720 --> 01:44:09,640
just reclamation of the US Mag ponds or,

2753
01:44:09,640 --> 01:44:11,680
you know, Newfound and Basin, Newfound

2754
01:44:11,680 --> 01:44:14,880
and Basin I think everybody calls it. Um

2755
01:44:14,880 --> 01:44:16,480
we need to think about all those things.

2756
01:44:16,480 --> 01:44:19,320
So, you ended up with just more

2757
01:44:19,320 --> 01:44:21,200
broad 30,000-ft level things, right?

2758
01:44:21,200 --> 01:44:23,320
Like we want to either import salt or

2759
01:44:23,320 --> 01:44:25,440
export salt and do these types of things

2760
01:44:25,440 --> 01:44:27,840
and that. So, I think that was a good

2761
01:44:27,840 --> 01:44:29,560
change cuz I think originally we were a

2762
01:44:29,560 --> 01:44:31,400
little more nuanced in what we want to

2763
01:44:31,400 --> 01:44:32,920
do, but this just gives the direction of

2764
01:44:32,920 --> 01:44:34,560
like when we should be exporting versus

2765
01:44:34,560 --> 01:44:37,480
importing and it's just kind of a a good

2766
01:44:37,480 --> 01:44:39,200
reminder. But Jeff, I guess one other

2767
01:44:39,200 --> 01:44:40,520
question I have is

2768
01:44:40,520 --> 01:44:41,720
you know, in the discussion we've had

2769
01:44:41,720 --> 01:44:44,200
today with this, should we leave it,

2770
01:44:44,200 --> 01:44:45,840
should we touch it, what do we want to

2771
01:44:45,840 --> 01:44:48,720
do? Do you feel like the this salinity

2772
01:44:48,720 --> 01:44:50,800
management plan still kind of stands the

2773
01:44:50,800 --> 01:44:53,160
test of time and would allow for, you

2774
01:44:53,160 --> 01:44:54,720
know, whichever way we want to go cuz

2775
01:44:54,720 --> 01:44:56,720
right now I think we're kind of

2776
01:44:56,720 --> 01:44:59,680
maybe at the like a neutral position.

2777
01:44:59,680 --> 01:45:00,800
Yeah.

2778
01:45:00,800 --> 01:45:03,880
I mean, I I I think the management plan

2779
01:45:03,880 --> 01:45:05,680
is is

2780
01:45:05,680 --> 01:45:07,600
fairly general. I think it provides some

2781
01:45:07,600 --> 01:45:09,040
sideboards.

2782
01:45:09,040 --> 01:45:10,160
Um

2783
01:45:10,160 --> 01:45:12,640
I mean, I think, you know, we have the

2784
01:45:12,640 --> 01:45:15,640
ISOMASS plots that um

2785
01:45:15,640 --> 01:45:17,560
that Christine's developed. You know,

2786
01:45:17,560 --> 01:45:19,200
this

2787
01:45:19,200 --> 01:45:21,920
points more directly toward um you know,

2788
01:45:21,920 --> 01:45:22,600
if

2789
01:45:22,600 --> 01:45:23,920
for if

2790
01:45:23,920 --> 01:45:26,160
you know, what should we do? And so, I

2791
01:45:26,160 --> 01:45:28,160
mean, just I and this is very crude. I

2792
01:45:28,160 --> 01:45:30,360
just took the mass that she just

2793
01:45:30,360 --> 01:45:33,040
reported and and threw a star on here to

2794
01:45:33,040 --> 01:45:34,440
kind of give you an idea of where we

2795
01:45:34,440 --> 01:45:35,560
are.

2796
01:45:35,560 --> 01:45:37,480
So, this gives us an idea that, okay,

2797
01:45:37,480 --> 01:45:38,680
we're you know, we're right in the

2798
01:45:38,680 --> 01:45:41,800
middle of the range where we want to be.

2799
01:45:41,800 --> 01:45:43,880
And and I think last fall we were just

2800
01:45:43,880 --> 01:45:45,800
below that. So,

2801
01:45:45,800 --> 01:45:47,560
this give kind of gives us an idea of

2802
01:45:47,560 --> 01:45:49,240
the trajectory we want where we want to

2803
01:45:49,240 --> 01:45:52,040
go. And I think more importantly is that

2804
01:45:52,040 --> 01:45:54,760
if if the lake is fairly stable year to

2805
01:45:54,760 --> 01:45:57,040
year, it gives us guidelines, kind of

2806
01:45:57,040 --> 01:45:58,920
direction, a vision of what to do if the

2807
01:45:58,920 --> 01:46:00,640
lake is declining.

2808
01:46:00,640 --> 01:46:03,000
You know, here broadly is, you know, we

2809
01:46:03,000 --> 01:46:05,360
want to reduce salt import or, you know,

2810
01:46:05,360 --> 01:46:08,760
we want to export more. So, it's pretty

2811
01:46:08,760 --> 01:46:10,880
So, as we're discussing this, you know,

2812
01:46:10,880 --> 01:46:13,680
and fine-tuning the berm, um

2813
01:46:13,680 --> 01:46:15,040
I think the management plan gives us an

2814
01:46:15,040 --> 01:46:16,600
idea of

2815
01:46:16,600 --> 01:46:19,360
our, you know, broadly what we can do,

2816
01:46:19,360 --> 01:46:21,800
but it doesn't give us the input that we

2817
01:46:21,800 --> 01:46:23,520
need to answer these questions that

2818
01:46:23,520 --> 01:46:26,160
we're wrestling with right now. Um so,

2819
01:46:26,160 --> 01:46:28,440
it gives us some sideboards, and but it

2820
01:46:28,440 --> 01:46:30,440
doesn't give us specifics, which I think

2821
01:46:30,440 --> 01:46:33,200
is what our goal was.

2822
01:46:33,200 --> 01:46:35,880
Is we wanted to we wanted to know what

2823
01:46:35,880 --> 01:46:38,600
are the options? Um what are some

2824
01:46:38,600 --> 01:46:40,720
things, you know, generally how do we

2825
01:46:40,720 --> 01:46:43,800
want to move salt um

2826
01:46:43,800 --> 01:46:46,520
you know, for different conditions. And

2827
01:46:46,520 --> 01:46:47,360
um

2828
01:46:47,360 --> 01:46:51,670
And I think it does that.

2829
01:46:51,680 --> 01:46:53,560
Maybe uh one thing to,

2830
01:46:53,560 --> 01:46:55,800
you know, say on this is that with the

2831
01:46:55,800 --> 01:46:58,400
ability and the also the

2832
01:46:58,400 --> 01:46:59,200
uh

2833
01:46:59,200 --> 01:47:00,960
you know, the the concept of managing

2834
01:47:00,960 --> 01:47:03,120
the berm now for more than just salinity

2835
01:47:03,120 --> 01:47:04,640
and, you know, doing some of these other

2836
01:47:04,640 --> 01:47:06,360
management activities, I think the

2837
01:47:06,360 --> 01:47:08,200
salinity management plan, so long as it

2838
01:47:08,200 --> 01:47:09,520
can kind of stand on its own, like this

2839
01:47:09,520 --> 01:47:11,480
is kind of a guiding principle that when

2840
01:47:11,480 --> 01:47:13,640
we're here and the lake is trending in,

2841
01:47:13,640 --> 01:47:14,560
you know, this direction or this

2842
01:47:14,560 --> 01:47:16,240
direction, it gives us some thoughts on

2843
01:47:16,240 --> 01:47:18,240
what we'd want to do to manage salinity,

2844
01:47:18,240 --> 01:47:19,840
but knowing that there may be other

2845
01:47:19,840 --> 01:47:21,680
influences, and this is not the

2846
01:47:21,680 --> 01:47:23,120
playbook, this is the guidebook that

2847
01:47:23,120 --> 01:47:25,320
kind of says this is how we generally

2848
01:47:25,320 --> 01:47:26,920
want to move, but there may be other

2849
01:47:26,920 --> 01:47:29,280
factors or ways that we can manage salt

2850
01:47:29,280 --> 01:47:30,520
or other things that we need to

2851
01:47:30,520 --> 01:47:31,600
consider.

2852
01:47:31,600 --> 01:47:33,320
Um so long as that's you know,

2853
01:47:33,320 --> 01:47:34,960
understood, I think that's the you know,

2854
01:47:34,960 --> 01:47:37,120
my my take on this is that it's pretty

2855
01:47:37,120 --> 01:47:40,310
good and does that.

2856
01:47:40,320 --> 01:47:43,280
Yeah, any other thoughts

2857
01:47:43,280 --> 01:47:49,270
from the committee?

2858
01:47:49,280 --> 01:47:51,960
I guess one thought I had is just we

2859
01:47:51,960 --> 01:47:54,920
don't I don't think the plan speaks to

2860
01:47:54,920 --> 01:47:57,840
the fact that there are other variables

2861
01:47:57,840 --> 01:48:00,960
such as nitrogen or nutrients, and who

2862
01:48:00,960 --> 01:48:03,800
knows what else comes up in the next 10

2863
01:48:03,800 --> 01:48:05,760
years. Um

2864
01:48:05,760 --> 01:48:08,520
and so perhaps adding a caveat

2865
01:48:08,520 --> 01:48:12,600
to it just to state state that there are other factors that will

2866
01:48:12,600 --> 01:48:14,320
need to

2867
01:48:14,320 --> 01:48:16,400
that may need to be considered.

2868
01:48:16,400 --> 01:48:18,440
Uh and maybe just one other thing too is

2869
01:48:18,440 --> 01:48:20,400
we may want to consider what frequency

2870
01:48:20,400 --> 01:48:22,520
we want to revisit this because, you

2871
01:48:22,520 --> 01:48:26,160
know, having 120 g per liter as our fall

2872
01:48:26,160 --> 01:48:29,520
target. Um you know, if we find out that

2873
01:48:29,520 --> 01:48:30,800
nutrients are going to be an issue, then

2874
01:48:30,800 --> 01:48:33,440
maybe we want to readjust that thought

2875
01:48:33,440 --> 01:48:35,120
and think about where we want to be.

2876
01:48:35,120 --> 01:48:36,680
Maybe we want to be a little bit higher

2877
01:48:36,680 --> 01:48:38,600
so that we lowered the spring, you know,

2878
01:48:38,600 --> 01:48:41,080
target salinity and also allow for those

2879
01:48:41,080 --> 01:48:42,680
you know, nutrient um

2880
01:48:42,680 --> 01:48:43,840
imports.

2881
01:48:43,840 --> 01:48:45,600
Um

2882
01:48:45,600 --> 01:48:47,360
I think we should at least make some

2883
01:48:47,360 --> 01:48:48,800
mention of some of those other variables

2884
01:48:48,800 --> 01:48:50,800
that we would want to manage for, but

2885
01:48:50,800 --> 01:48:52,520
also I don't think we need to keep on

2886
01:48:52,520 --> 01:48:54,240
punting this to the next meeting every

2887
01:48:54,240 --> 01:48:56,240
time. It may be something we want to,

2888
01:48:56,240 --> 01:48:57,840
you know, just amend from time to time

2889
01:48:57,840 --> 01:48:59,120
like we do with our bylaws or our

2890
01:48:59,120 --> 01:49:01,040
charter or, you know, other things that

2891
01:49:01,040 --> 01:49:01,960
we do.

2892
01:49:01,960 --> 01:49:03,440
Right.

2893
01:49:03,440 --> 01:49:06,390
Jared, do you

2894
01:49:06,400 --> 01:49:08,480
Is there any harm in

2895
01:49:08,480 --> 01:49:10,320
I'm sorry, you you just said this, Ben,

2896
01:49:10,320 --> 01:49:12,440
but is there any harm in in voting on

2897
01:49:12,440 --> 01:49:17,240
this on in May? The May meeting. Just just so we can kind of all refr-

2898
01:49:17,240 --> 01:49:18,360
it's it's fresh in my mind.

2899
01:49:18,360 --> 01:49:18,880
>> Yeah.

2900
01:49:18,880 --> 01:49:20,520
I I think In the context of this

2901
01:49:20,520 --> 01:49:21,920
discussion. I don't I don't think

2902
01:49:21,920 --> 01:49:23,840
there's any harm. I think the one reason

2903
01:49:23,840 --> 01:49:25,520
that we wanted to get this somewhat

2904
01:49:25,520 --> 01:49:26,840
wrapped up is we would love to be able

2905
01:49:26,840 --> 01:49:28,360
to reference this in our management

2906
01:49:28,360 --> 01:49:31,720
plan. Like we're finishing our CMP, you

2907
01:49:31,720 --> 01:49:34,200
know, to to not have this finished and

2908
01:49:34,200 --> 01:49:36,280
have something that we can point to is a

2909
01:49:36,280 --> 01:49:37,720
little problematic for my my

2910
01:49:37,720 --> 01:49:40,560
perspective. Um but, you know, May, that

2911
01:49:40,560 --> 01:49:41,880
puts us into a position where I think we

2912
01:49:41,880 --> 01:49:43,760
could still do it, right, Jeff? Yeah.

2913
01:49:43,760 --> 01:49:45,480
So, so long as we didn't have

2914
01:49:45,480 --> 01:49:46,840
substantial changes. But maybe what we

2915
01:49:46,840 --> 01:49:49,560
could do is just plan to mail or email

2916
01:49:49,560 --> 01:49:51,840
this out to the uh committee a couple

2917
01:49:51,840 --> 01:49:53,160
weeks in advance and give one last

2918
01:49:53,160 --> 01:49:54,760
chance to look at it. Maybe we can just

2919
01:49:54,760 --> 01:49:56,680
make those modifications now Yeah. to

2920
01:49:56,680 --> 01:49:58,640
discuss the need to evaluate nutrients

2921
01:49:58,640 --> 01:50:00,600
and maybe, you know, re-evaluate this

2922
01:50:00,600 --> 01:50:03,840
plan every, you know, year or so often

2923
01:50:03,840 --> 01:50:06,440
to make sure that we're, you know, still

2924
01:50:06,440 --> 01:50:08,200
uh in accordance with Right. these

2925
01:50:08,200 --> 01:50:10,800
guiding principles. Right. Okay.

2926
01:50:10,800 --> 01:50:12,120
I think that'd be good.

2927
01:50:12,120 --> 01:50:13,000
Okay.

2928
01:50:13,000 --> 01:50:16,040
Great. Well, um

2929
01:50:16,040 --> 01:50:18,160
I'll take I'll read through the plan

2930
01:50:18,160 --> 01:50:20,840
again and just I think you made a great

2931
01:50:20,840 --> 01:50:22,960
point and you know, we have a specific

2932
01:50:22,960 --> 01:50:25,720
date I we changed it to October 15th.

2933
01:50:25,720 --> 01:50:28,440
Um I think Joe made that recommendation

2934
01:50:28,440 --> 01:50:29,840
last time.

2935
01:50:29,840 --> 01:50:31,960
And but we can say, you know what, these

2936
01:50:31,960 --> 01:50:34,520
are principles that should be

2937
01:50:34,520 --> 01:50:38,280
re-evaluated on a consistent basis and

2938
01:50:38,280 --> 01:50:41,280
um and I think it would be good to add

2939
01:50:41,280 --> 01:50:42,000
uh

2940
01:50:42,000 --> 01:50:43,720
at least note that there are other

2941
01:50:43,720 --> 01:50:46,280
factors that to be considered other than

2942
01:50:46,280 --> 01:50:48,720
just salinity.

2943
01:50:48,720 --> 01:50:50,120
So.

2944
01:50:50,120 --> 01:50:52,360
I I will do that. I'll get that out

2945
01:50:52,360 --> 01:50:54,880
to everybody before our next meeting.

2946
01:50:54,880 --> 01:50:57,840
Um any anything else from anybody on

2947
01:50:57,840 --> 01:50:59,920
that?

2948
01:50:59,920 --> 01:51:02,800
If not, let's schedule our next meeting.

2949
01:51:02,800 --> 01:51:04,320
Um

2950
01:51:04,320 --> 01:51:06,840
So, the the Issues Forum is the first

2951
01:51:06,840 --> 01:51:09,440
week of May.

2952
01:51:09,440 --> 01:51:10,200
And

2953
01:51:10,200 --> 01:51:12,400
>> going to say that. I she to say that.

2954
01:51:12,400 --> 01:51:13,640
I'm sorry.

2955
01:51:13,640 --> 01:51:23,470
Linda, do you have any announcements?

2956
01:51:23,480 --> 01:51:25,000
So,

2957
01:51:25,000 --> 01:51:28,760
let me get my calendar out quick. Um

2958
01:51:28,760 --> 01:51:30,920
so that would is would it be more

2959
01:51:30,920 --> 01:51:32,240
helpful to have it the last week of

2960
01:51:32,240 --> 01:51:38,790
April, the week before?

2961
01:51:38,800 --> 01:51:40,000
Does that give us enough time to

2962
01:51:40,000 --> 01:51:42,280
actually finish runoff and make the

2963
01:51:42,280 --> 01:51:44,360
calculations? I would think we'd want to

2964
01:51:44,360 --> 01:51:46,920
kind of air on the week after, maybe,

2965
01:51:46,920 --> 01:51:48,840
but

2966
01:51:48,840 --> 01:51:50,320
happy to do the week before if everybody

2967
01:51:50,320 --> 01:51:53,710
thinks that's better.

2968
01:51:53,720 --> 01:51:55,720
I think I mean that gives us there's

2969
01:51:55,720 --> 01:51:57,720
definitely more time to consider the

2970
01:51:57,720 --> 01:52:01,600
possibilities there. So, I guess we're looking at the week of

2971
01:52:01,600 --> 01:52:03,440
May 11th.

2972
01:52:03,440 --> 01:52:05,960
And

2973
01:52:05,960 --> 01:52:08,360
um if we keep our traditional

2974
01:52:08,360 --> 01:52:11,680
Thursdays, you know, that'd be May 14th

2975
01:52:11,680 --> 01:52:14,800
from 10:00 to 12:00.

2976
01:52:14,800 --> 01:52:16,760
Does that work for everybody online as

2977
01:52:16,760 --> 01:52:19,910
well?

2978
01:52:19,920 --> 01:52:22,880
All right. We will plan on that. We'll

2979
01:52:22,880 --> 01:52:24,040
get a

2980
01:52:24,040 --> 01:52:25,560
an announcement out and get the room

2981
01:52:25,560 --> 01:52:27,400
scheduled and

2982
01:52:27,400 --> 01:52:29,600
perfect.

2983
01:52:29,600 --> 01:52:30,560
So,

2984
01:52:30,560 --> 01:52:32,160
does this

2985
01:52:32,160 --> 01:52:33,560
I don't know how often this room is

2986
01:52:33,560 --> 01:52:35,240
available. Does this room work better

2987
01:52:35,240 --> 01:52:38,480
than the Soldier Hollow?

2988
01:52:38,480 --> 01:52:41,000
If it's available.

2989
01:52:41,000 --> 01:52:42,960
Okay.

2990
01:52:42,960 --> 01:52:46,710
All right. Well, we'll see.

2991
01:52:46,720 --> 01:52:48,360
if we can we can arrange that

2992
01:52:48,360 --> 01:52:50,400
for the future. Um

2993
01:52:50,400 --> 01:52:51,920
depends on

2994
01:52:51,920 --> 01:52:55,080
who else has the room scheduled. So,

2995
01:52:55,080 --> 01:52:57,840
great. Anything I guess anything else

2996
01:52:57,840 --> 01:53:01,680
that we any other action items? Um

2997
01:53:01,680 --> 01:53:03,800
And just to recap the action items that

2998
01:53:03,800 --> 01:53:04,640
are

2999
01:53:04,640 --> 01:53:06,880
have here in my notes is just we the tag

3000
01:53:06,880 --> 01:53:09,600
meeting on Thurs Thursday

3001
01:53:09,600 --> 01:53:12,040
or Wednesday, I'm sorry. Um

3002
01:53:12,040 --> 01:53:14,800
so we'll learn what comes up from the

3003
01:53:14,800 --> 01:53:18,160
nutrients and

3004
01:53:18,160 --> 01:53:20,640
I'm just trying to remember if there's a

3005
01:53:20,640 --> 01:53:22,880
you don't usually publish the summary

3006
01:53:22,880 --> 01:53:25,320
until the next meeting.

3007
01:53:25,320 --> 01:53:27,400
Is that

3008
01:53:27,400 --> 01:53:28,720
I'm just wondering for those who can't

3009
01:53:28,720 --> 01:53:30,680
make it. Yeah, summary from last meeting

3010
01:53:30,680 --> 01:53:33,040
should come out tomorrow and then the

3011
01:53:33,040 --> 01:53:35,000
video recording of tomorrow's meeting

3012
01:53:35,000 --> 01:53:37,880
will be available before. So.

3013
01:53:37,880 --> 01:53:41,240
>> All right. So, you'll be able to

3014
01:53:41,240 --> 01:53:42,760
watch or listen to that if you can't

3015
01:53:42,760 --> 01:53:45,520
make the meeting on on Wednesday.

3016
01:53:45,520 --> 01:53:47,200
Um and then we'll also

3017
01:53:47,200 --> 01:53:49,120
connect to try to figure out how we can

3018
01:53:49,120 --> 01:53:51,520
model the the berm and see if there's a

3019
01:53:51,520 --> 01:53:53,520
way we can

3020
01:53:53,520 --> 01:53:55,480
reconfigure that at all to get to that

3021
01:53:55,480 --> 01:53:59,200
net zero flux um over the summer.

3022
01:53:59,200 --> 01:54:02,760
And um and then we've approved um

3023
01:54:02,760 --> 01:54:05,040
Christine's protocol, so we'll get that

3024
01:54:05,040 --> 01:54:06,720
And then Andrew is going to look into

3025
01:54:06,720 --> 01:54:09,320
having UGS publish that.

3026
01:54:09,320 --> 01:54:14,520
And then I will get some minor modifications to the plan and

3027
01:54:14,520 --> 01:54:16,200
get that back out to the committee

3028
01:54:16,200 --> 01:54:18,640
before our next meeting as well.

3029
01:54:18,640 --> 01:54:20,120
And then lastly, we're meeting on May

3030
01:54:20,120 --> 01:54:23,040
14th at 10:00 a.m.

3031
01:54:23,040 --> 01:54:24,840
So.

3032
01:54:24,840 --> 01:54:27,080
All right. If nothing else, oh, yes,

3033
01:54:27,080 --> 01:54:29,680
Lynn? I'm finished big, right? Yeah.

3034
01:54:29,680 --> 01:54:31,680
Okay. I'm sending you an invitation You

3035
01:54:31,680 --> 01:54:33,880
got a microphone? Oh, so the online

3036
01:54:33,880 --> 01:54:36,270
folks

3037
01:54:36,280 --> 01:54:38,080
Thanks.

3038
01:54:38,080 --> 01:54:39,520
Thank you. Um

3039
01:54:39,520 --> 01:54:41,600
I'd like to extend an invitation to all

3040
01:54:41,600 --> 01:54:43,800
of you to come to the Great Salt Lake

3041
01:54:43,800 --> 01:54:48,840
Issues Forum May 6th, 7th, and 8th on um

3042
01:54:48,840 --> 01:54:51,440
Thursday, May 7th, first thing in the

3043
01:54:51,440 --> 01:54:54,520
morning, we're actually having a session

3044
01:54:54,520 --> 01:54:57,480
that Ben is going to moderate and uh

3045
01:54:57,480 --> 01:55:01,080
Christine and Phil and Kyle are going to

3046
01:55:01,080 --> 01:55:03,320
be a part of that and the title is worth

3047
01:55:03,320 --> 01:55:06,040
its salt. And pretty soon we'll be

3048
01:55:06,040 --> 01:55:07,640
adding uh

3049
01:55:07,640 --> 01:55:10,400
nutrients. But anyway, and then Gary is

3050
01:55:10,400 --> 01:55:12,840
going to be on the same day later on in

3051
01:55:12,840 --> 01:55:15,520
the afternoon. So, that being said, uh

3052
01:55:15,520 --> 01:55:18,280
there's a lot more and there's um

3053
01:55:18,280 --> 01:55:19,760
you know, a great opportunity to get

3054
01:55:19,760 --> 01:55:22,680
together and talk with others and to uh

3055
01:55:22,680 --> 01:55:23,920
you know,

3056
01:55:23,920 --> 01:55:26,560
extend the reach of what this important

3057
01:55:26,560 --> 01:55:29,560
work and this important commitment that

3058
01:55:29,560 --> 01:55:31,720
we're all involved with um

3059
01:55:31,720 --> 01:55:34,680
is is meaning. So, thank you very much.

3060
01:55:34,680 --> 01:55:36,440
Great.

3061
01:55:36,440 --> 01:55:38,320
All right, thanks Lynn. Chris? Could I

3062
01:55:38,320 --> 01:55:39,360
um

3063
01:55:39,360 --> 01:55:41,160
did we land anywhere with the Lakeside

3064
01:55:41,160 --> 01:55:43,320
breach? And just like I mean, how can

3065
01:55:43,320 --> 01:55:45,720
that conversation move forward? Just in

3066
01:55:45,720 --> 01:55:47,640
keeping in mind that we can't gauge that

3067
01:55:47,640 --> 01:55:49,800
given current conditions. And from Mike

3068
01:55:49,800 --> 01:55:51,440
you know, what Mike has said,

3069
01:55:51,440 --> 01:55:52,720
uh you know, we might need to think

3070
01:55:52,720 --> 01:55:54,600
about some kind of modification given

3071
01:55:54,600 --> 01:55:56,240
low lake levels in the South Arm to be

3072
01:55:56,240 --> 01:55:58,080
able to gauge it. So, I just want to I

3073
01:55:58,080 --> 01:55:59,360
don't know if we need follow-up there in

3074
01:55:59,360 --> 01:56:02,120
some fashion um or not. But thought I

3075
01:56:02,120 --> 01:56:03,360
would remind everybody that that's an

3076
01:56:03,360 --> 01:56:06,590
issue. Yes.

3077
01:56:06,600 --> 01:56:08,240
Do you have anything on that, Ben? I I

3078
01:56:08,240 --> 01:56:09,760
don't have any answers for that. I think

3079
01:56:09,760 --> 01:56:11,280
that it's really important and I think

3080
01:56:11,280 --> 01:56:13,080
it'd be awesome to gauge it, but I just

3081
01:56:13,080 --> 01:56:15,080
think that there's so much happening out

3082
01:56:15,080 --> 01:56:16,280
there that it may be something we have

3083
01:56:16,280 --> 01:56:17,920
to incorporate into a

3084
01:56:17,920 --> 01:56:20,440
like a future project. But right now, I

3085
01:56:20,440 --> 01:56:22,160
think there's some pretty big priorities

3086
01:56:22,160 --> 01:56:23,920
like, you know, the protective structure

3087
01:56:23,920 --> 01:56:26,240
on the berm itself. And I think that

3088
01:56:26,240 --> 01:56:27,040
would

3089
01:56:27,040 --> 01:56:29,560
at least in my mind would rise above,

3090
01:56:29,560 --> 01:56:30,520
you know,

3091
01:56:30,520 --> 01:56:33,000
the protective structure to um support

3092
01:56:33,000 --> 01:56:34,600
the gauging out there. So, I I do think

3093
01:56:34,600 --> 01:56:37,040
that there's a huge opportunity and it's

3094
01:56:37,040 --> 01:56:39,200
something that we can incorporate into

3095
01:56:39,200 --> 01:56:40,840
any future work that would happen out

3096
01:56:40,840 --> 01:56:42,480
there for sure.

3097
01:56:42,480 --> 01:56:44,400
Yeah.

3098
01:56:44,400 --> 01:56:45,560
All right, well

3099
01:56:45,560 --> 01:56:47,400
with that, I'd entertain a motion to

3100
01:56:47,400 --> 01:56:52,190
adjourn.

3101
01:56:52,200 --> 01:56:54,560
And Joe, all right. And Thomas second

3102
01:56:54,560 --> 01:56:55,440
it.

3103
01:56:55,440 --> 01:56:57,960
Um I'll just assume it's approved. Thank

3104
01:56:57,960 --> 01:57:00,240
you, everybody.

3105
01:57:00,240 --> 01:57:02,000
We'll see you May 14th. Actually, we'll

3106
01:57:02,000 --> 01:57:05,360
see you at the Issues Forum.