1 00:00:00,719 --> 00:00:02,560 Yeah, you want to start? We'll buy a 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:03,760 second here by just doing some quick 3 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:05,279 introductions. You want to start over 4 00:00:05,279 --> 00:00:06,160 there, Ryan? 5 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:07,680 >> Yeah, I'm Ryan Roland. I'm the data 6 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:09,679 chief for the USGS Utah Water Science 7 00:00:09,679 --> 00:00:11,280 Center. 8 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,160 Christine Rumpy hydraulysis 9 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:26,870 public 10 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:28,640 resources 11 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,279 forestry and state 12 00:00:31,279 --> 00:00:33,680 division wildlife resources start back 13 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,000 there for you. 14 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:42,150 >> Emma Whitaker for St. 15 00:00:42,160 --> 00:00:45,440 Travis Anderson 16 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:46,320 students 17 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,670 >> um 18 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:51,920 corrupt 19 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:53,360 USGS 20 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,879 >> AK USGS. 21 00:00:56,879 --> 00:01:00,800 >> Awesome. Um let's see. So Christine, are 22 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,160 you ready to do yours? Maybe we can just 23 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:03,920 start by hopping into that and then 24 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:08,870 we'll Okay. 25 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:24,630 I think I also can't share. 26 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:42,789 » Thank you. 27 00:01:42,799 --> 00:01:45,280 All right. So, I believe we're going to 28 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,040 start with lake updates. So, Ryan's 29 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:48,880 going to walk us through lake elevation 30 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:50,720 at each. 31 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,520 >> Okay. And then we'll transition uh to 32 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:55,200 Christine a little a little bit later. 33 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,920 So, go ahead. Next slide. All right. 34 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,479 Lake surface elevation south arm showing 35 00:02:00,479 --> 00:02:03,360 data from October 1st 2021 through the 36 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,240 current period. Y ais is elevation in 37 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,239 feet. Um and the the um the dash line 38 00:02:10,239 --> 00:02:12,000 horizontal dash line is a period of 39 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,840 record low 4188.5 that was set in 2020 40 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:19,040 late 2022. Um the most recent daily 41 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,760 value that came in for May 25th. Uh you 42 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:23,200 know we made these slides yesterday. So 43 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:24,560 the most recent daily value we could 44 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:26,480 compute was for the 25th. It came in at 45 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:30,879 41 91.9 ft. That's about 0.8 ft higher 46 00:02:30,879 --> 00:02:33,200 than the north arm right now and about 47 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,959 3.4 feet above this creative record low 48 00:02:36,959 --> 00:02:39,840 uh for this site. Um so you see we had a 49 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,920 seasonal decline of about 2.7 uh feet in 50 00:02:43,920 --> 00:02:47,040 the south arm and we came up 1.6 six 51 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,200 feet. If you include this this little 52 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:53,280 spike um on in the most recent data uh 53 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:55,360 which was really related to a multi-day 54 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,519 session event, if we if we take that 55 00:02:57,519 --> 00:03:00,640 spike out, we came up about 1.3. We that 56 00:03:00,640 --> 00:03:03,040 was our seasonal rise. That's due to 57 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:04,319 spring runoff. And you can see water 58 00:03:04,319 --> 00:03:06,319 levels are currently appear to be 59 00:03:06,319 --> 00:03:10,239 starting to decrease. Next slide. Okay. 60 00:03:10,239 --> 00:03:13,040 Same uh type of plot for the north arm 61 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,599 uh gauge. The daily value uh for May 62 00:03:15,599 --> 00:03:18,080 25th came in at 4191.1 63 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,519 ft. Um that's 2.6 feet above the period 64 00:03:21,519 --> 00:03:24,080 of record level or 4188.5. 65 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,560 So 4188.5 is the period of record low 66 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,080 for both the north arm and the south 67 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,799 arm. So we're only about 2.6 feet above 68 00:03:30,799 --> 00:03:33,440 that right now. Next slide. Major 69 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:37,120 surface water inflows. These are um uh 70 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,360 these graphs show the daily discharge in 71 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,280 cubic feet per second on the y- axis. 72 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:42,959 The bold black line are the computed 73 00:03:42,959 --> 00:03:45,840 daily values. Um the shaded zones are 74 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,799 the percentile uh classes based on the 75 00:03:48,799 --> 00:03:51,280 period of record for the gauge. Um and 76 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,519 I'm showing data from October 1st, 2024 77 00:03:53,519 --> 00:03:57,040 through uh the current period. So um you 78 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,920 can get these uh plots very easily now 79 00:03:59,920 --> 00:04:02,239 from each gauges real time page. We call 80 00:04:02,239 --> 00:04:04,560 that the monitoring location page. It's 81 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,319 very simple to to bring these types of 82 00:04:06,319 --> 00:04:08,000 plots up which are very useful. You used 83 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:09,200 to be able to access those through 84 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,000 water. that website's gone away. Um, and 85 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,720 you can learn more about uh data updates 86 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:18,160 or the way we present data on the web um 87 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:22,160 using USPS uh water data blog website. I 88 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,240 encourage you to take a look at that. 89 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:28,479 Um, the most uh recent uh daily values 90 00:04:28,479 --> 00:04:30,320 coming in the bold black line to this 91 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,800 site river near Kurin you can see are 92 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,400 well below the normal range which is 93 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,880 this kind of light green shaded zone. 94 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,520 We're currently in this fifth 5 to 10th 95 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:41,680 percentile range. So much below normal 96 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,479 flows at Bear River. Um the little note 97 00:04:44,479 --> 00:04:47,759 top right um the cumulative flow passing 98 00:04:47,759 --> 00:04:51,919 that gauge for water year 2026. Um 99 00:04:51,919 --> 00:04:53,680 for this time of year comes in at 100 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:58,000 491,000 acre feet. Um that's just below 101 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:01,600 25th percentile for this site. Uh so 102 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,160 well below normal timber flows at this 103 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,360 site uh for this water year. Next slide. 104 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,440 Same kind of plot for the Weber River 105 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:12,240 near Plain City. The most recent daily 106 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,400 values go down by the bold black line. 107 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:16,160 They're they're they're well below the 108 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,280 below normal or the normal range. So now 109 00:05:19,280 --> 00:05:22,479 we're in again that five to 5 to 10 110 00:05:22,479 --> 00:05:25,280 percentile range for current flows. Um 111 00:05:25,280 --> 00:05:28,160 the cumulative flow passing this gauge 112 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,919 for water year 2026 um is about 48,000 113 00:05:31,919 --> 00:05:33,919 acre feet and that's just above the 114 00:05:33,919 --> 00:05:36,639 lowest um we've recorded this year for 115 00:05:36,639 --> 00:05:40,240 this time of year. Okay. Next plot is 116 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,400 for the Goen drain near Magna 117 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,960 Utah. And you can see the low flows at 118 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:48,800 this or the current flows at this site 119 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,280 are well below what we've seen 120 00:05:51,280 --> 00:05:53,520 historically. This full black line is 121 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:55,680 below any of the shaded regions. So, 122 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:58,400 we're setting record lows right now. Uh, 123 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:00,560 but the cumulative flow of this gauge so 124 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:04,160 far this year is 436,000 acre feet, 125 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:06,720 which is about the um the 25th 126 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:09,360 percentile. Uh, so current flows are 127 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:13,600 really bad. Um, but you know, overall 128 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:15,039 for the the water year, we're about the 129 00:06:15,039 --> 00:06:18,639 25th percentile. Next slide. Okay, this 130 00:06:18,639 --> 00:06:20,080 is Great Salt Lake Farmington Bay 131 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,120 outflow. uh current flows below the 132 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,360 normal range, you know, in the fifth to 133 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,319 10th percentile range. Um cumulative 134 00:06:28,319 --> 00:06:30,240 flow at this site so far for this water 135 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,199 year is about 191,000 acre feet. And 136 00:06:33,199 --> 00:06:36,560 that's about at the median for this site 137 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:40,720 um so far this year. So if you add all 138 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,600 those acre feet values up for water year 139 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:47,520 2026, I get 1,166,000 140 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,720 acre feet. Relative to last year, the 141 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,600 value was 1,27,000 142 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,360 acre feet. So um this year we're 143 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,199 actually 139,000 ft um above what was 144 00:07:01,199 --> 00:07:04,479 measured last year. Okay. 145 00:07:04,479 --> 00:07:07,599 All right. um at the new breach. As you 146 00:07:07,599 --> 00:07:09,039 all know, we make field measurements of 147 00:07:09,039 --> 00:07:12,160 discharge uh on a monthly basis during 148 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,199 um calm conditions. So, this is uh 149 00:07:15,199 --> 00:07:16,560 showing the field measurements for the 150 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,520 south to north flow. So, on the y- axis, 151 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:24,240 it's cubic feet and um on the uh x-axis, 152 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:25,759 we're showing data from October 1st, 153 00:07:25,759 --> 00:07:28,720 2024 through the current measurements. 154 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,599 The last few measurements listed on the 155 00:07:31,599 --> 00:07:33,919 last two bullet items here have come in 156 00:07:33,919 --> 00:07:38,240 at about 770 cubic feet per second. AK 157 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,880 does a lot of this work. That's why he's 158 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,790 here today. So you all 159 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:46,479 » um and so those those last two 160 00:07:46,479 --> 00:07:48,160 measurements shows have leveled off 161 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,599 slightly. Uh probably in agreement with 162 00:07:51,599 --> 00:07:53,280 lake levels kind of leveled off and now 163 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,360 they're kind of on a slight downtrend. 164 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:57,120 The most recent measurement was May 12th 165 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,160 at 7 771 acre feet. Yes sir. 166 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,000 >> Just a quick question on the figure of 167 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,039 the 130ish,000 acre feet extra that we 168 00:08:05,039 --> 00:08:07,280 have this year. Is that for this date or 169 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:08,400 is that a total of what? 170 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:10,160 >> No, that's for this date for this time 171 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:10,720 of year. 172 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:10,960 >> Yep. 173 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:12,639 >> And that's Ryan. That's surprising 174 00:08:12,639 --> 00:08:14,400 though. Is that a timing issue you think 175 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,240 that we got that late snow last year? 176 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:19,840 >> Is that conservation efforts that are 177 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:21,039 >> Yeah, we were we were wondering about 178 00:08:21,039 --> 00:08:23,440 this on the car ride over. Um, one one 179 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:25,919 thing that sticks out is the um the go 180 00:08:25,919 --> 00:08:29,680 and plane. So, uh, this year 436,000 181 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:33,760 acre feet, last year 111,000 acre feet. 182 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,320 >> So, significant jump at that site. 183 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:37,120 >> Yeah. 184 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:41,440 >> Did the runoff seem later last year like 185 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:42,640 it looks like it's more or less 186 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:44,399 concluded for this year. 187 00:08:44,399 --> 00:08:47,279 >> Yeah, likely for sure. For for sure. 188 00:08:47,279 --> 00:08:50,320 Yeah, without a doubt. Yeah, runoff was 189 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:52,640 dismal this year. was was not good this 190 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,839 year statewide, right? 191 00:08:55,839 --> 00:08:59,680 We talked to uh um people in the know 192 00:08:59,680 --> 00:09:02,240 for what's happening at the Gogen Green 193 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,800 and there was some some water management 194 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:09,920 um that was happening. Um so 195 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,320 big big picture 196 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,320 uh more water passing the dog and drain 197 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,360 relative to uh last year and there were 198 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,120 some water management activities uh 199 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,600 related to that. I don't have a lot more 200 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,440 detail on that. It was related to the I 201 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:24,560 think the duck clubs. 202 00:09:24,560 --> 00:09:25,760 >> Off the top of your head, do you recall 203 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:28,240 what the total was for last year's water 204 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:29,279 year was 205 00:09:29,279 --> 00:09:31,040 >> for the full water year? 206 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:37,350 >> I don't recall that. 207 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,760 » All right. Um similar plot. Now these 208 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:41,600 are discharge values at the new breach. 209 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:43,600 Now we're looking at north to south 210 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,320 flow. So same type of plot. Y axis is 211 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,399 cubic feet per second in the same period 212 00:09:48,399 --> 00:09:50,560 October 1st 2024 through the most recent 213 00:09:50,560 --> 00:09:52,399 measurement that we have at the site. 214 00:09:52,399 --> 00:09:55,279 the last two measurements. Um, April 215 00:09:55,279 --> 00:10:00,000 2020, April 24th came in at 38 CFS. Um, 216 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,279 and then May 12th came in at 35 CFS. 217 00:10:03,279 --> 00:10:05,839 And, um, all the all the values shown on 218 00:10:05,839 --> 00:10:07,680 this plot are relatively low, kind of in 219 00:10:07,680 --> 00:10:10,000 this range. And I want everybody to keep 220 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,160 in mind that there's very, very high 221 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,240 uncertainty associated with these 222 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,560 measurements. We think they're biased 223 00:10:16,560 --> 00:10:19,200 high. Um, so these these true values 224 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,000 could be significantly lower than this. 225 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,560 So keep that in mind. Uh next slide. 226 00:10:24,560 --> 00:10:26,480 Okay. As you know, we're operating a 227 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,360 gauge um at the lakeside breach on the 228 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,920 far left side of the uh of the Del 229 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:35,519 Causeway. Um so the plot is showing uh 230 00:10:35,519 --> 00:10:37,200 the discharge values at that site in 231 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,440 cubic feet per second on the y- axis and 232 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,240 showing data from October 1st, 2024 to 233 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,000 the current period. Um the the recent 234 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,800 data, you know, this water, a lot of the 235 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:50,240 data, most of the data for this water 236 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,200 here are showing basically no um south 237 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,680 to north flow at this at this site. We 238 00:10:55,680 --> 00:10:58,160 do see some periods of north to south 239 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,560 flow. That's um these values that are 240 00:11:00,560 --> 00:11:02,320 below the zero the zero line is right 241 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,399 here. The negative values are north to 242 00:11:04,399 --> 00:11:06,640 south flow. So you see some some north 243 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,440 to south flows um in the in the data for 244 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:11,680 this water year. Uh the last couple of 245 00:11:11,680 --> 00:11:13,839 measurements at this site, March 9th, 246 00:11:13,839 --> 00:11:17,200 2026, we measured 151 CFS north to 247 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,839 south. April 2024, 248 00:11:19,839 --> 00:11:22,480 pardon me, April, about one CS north to 249 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,800 south. Um and and note the effort to get 250 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,760 this measurement on this big north to 251 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:35,120 south flow event um in March. That was a good effort to to get that uh 252 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:39,839 confirm that that 150 cfsish cfsish 253 00:11:39,839 --> 00:11:42,320 north to south flow. Uh but basically no 254 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,040 south to north this cycle. 255 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:48,000 Okay, that's it for me. Any questions? 256 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,519 So the reason why there's no south 257 00:11:51,519 --> 00:11:54,640 elevation is 4193 258 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,160 that's usually when we start seeing flow 259 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,959 going across the bridge and all that 260 00:11:58,959 --> 00:12:02,550 water 261 00:12:02,560 --> 00:12:10,790 it's not 262 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:14,069 for 263 00:12:14,079 --> 00:12:15,680 » just on the stuff that you're seeing 264 00:12:15,680 --> 00:12:18,160 from the bas Is it have you guys 265 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,079 attempted to quantify that at all or 266 00:12:20,079 --> 00:12:22,079 just do you just have those point in 267 00:12:22,079 --> 00:12:24,480 time flows? 268 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,680 >> We're basically taking those screen 269 00:12:27,680 --> 00:12:29,680 measurements and trying to estimate it 270 00:12:29,680 --> 00:12:44,150 based off the elevation of the gau. 271 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,000 It's not as accurate as adding a 272 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,399 velocity sensor 273 00:12:48,399 --> 00:12:50,959 velocity to determine what the discharge 274 00:12:50,959 --> 00:12:57,110 is. So 275 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,920 » thank you. We're in discussions right 276 00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:02,560 about 277 00:13:02,560 --> 00:13:06,240 >> it. Thanks. [laughter] 278 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:07,920 All right. Quickly still where we're 279 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,800 sitting at now. Um here's a plot of our 280 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,279 the last three or four years or so on 281 00:13:13,279 --> 00:13:16,560 the starting in October 2022. Uh our 282 00:13:16,560 --> 00:13:18,639 lowest 283 00:13:18,639 --> 00:13:20,320 for this spring were on April 7th 284 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,519 measured on April 7 around 113 to 118 285 00:13:23,519 --> 00:13:26,079 gram per liter. Um and relative to our 286 00:13:26,079 --> 00:13:29,279 fall high weed about 8 g per liter at 287 00:13:29,279 --> 00:13:35,279 our site 3510 in Bay and 11 g per liter at our site in Carington Bay. 288 00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:37,279 Um and then we have our most recent 289 00:13:37,279 --> 00:13:39,279 measurements are from May 20th. So last 290 00:13:39,279 --> 00:13:41,519 week we was out collecting water samples 291 00:13:41,519 --> 00:13:45,200 and just ticked up ever so slightly and 292 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,360 relative to last May were up anywhere 293 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:50,000 from 1 to six per year till this time 294 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,200 last year. 295 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,320 Uh our volume weighted salinity values 296 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,800 uh are were pretty similar April 7th and 297 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,639 May 20th. So for our upper brine sitting 298 00:14:00,639 --> 00:14:03,440 at 117 grams per liter. We consider the 299 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,639 full depth all the way to the to the 300 00:14:06,639 --> 00:14:09,199 bottom of the lake. We're getting 117 301 00:14:09,199 --> 00:14:11,440 grams per liter also for April and it 302 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,519 ticked up slightly for the May estimate 303 00:14:13,519 --> 00:14:17,279 or May measurements to 118 g per liter. 304 00:14:17,279 --> 00:14:19,519 Looking at salt mass, we continue to go 305 00:14:19,519 --> 00:14:21,680 down. So our most recent estimate May 306 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,519 20th is 847 million tons and we're still 307 00:14:25,519 --> 00:14:27,199 following that same trajectory. We've 308 00:14:27,199 --> 00:14:29,440 been on a decline of about 28 million 309 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:31,600 tons per year. 310 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,519 And just integrating all of that into 311 00:14:33,519 --> 00:14:35,680 our isomass plot, you can see we're sort 312 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:39,040 of at the low end of the masses that 313 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:40,880 we've observed 314 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:43,360 a low end of salinity as well. 118 rooms 315 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,839 per meter, 847 million sitting at 316 00:14:45,839 --> 00:14:48,240 4191.9T 317 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:52,480 on May 20th. So that's our salinity 318 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:56,000 update. So I will stop sharing and then 319 00:14:56,000 --> 00:15:03,990 also other unless there's question. 320 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:05,839 » Thank you. 321 00:15:05,839 --> 00:15:09,440 I apologize I was late. Um 322 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:09,760 >> yes 323 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,399 >> same meeting. 324 00:15:12,399 --> 00:15:17,920 >> Um and it went late. Um so did we 325 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:19,040 >> but that was 326 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:20,800 >> okay. All right. 327 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:24,800 >> Thank you very much. So, um, thank you 328 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,440 for the update on the lake conditions. 329 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,800 Um, the our primary objective today with 330 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:32,720 this meeting is we we really want to try 331 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:34,959 to get our arms around this nitrogen 332 00:15:34,959 --> 00:15:39,040 issue and um, we think about what kinds 333 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:40,800 of options we might have in the short 334 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,440 term. Um, you know, what kinds of 335 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:45,519 recommendations can we make to forestry, 336 00:15:45,519 --> 00:15:48,240 fire, and state lands and water quality 337 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,880 regarding the burn? I think it's 338 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,519 probably to be more even more focused. 339 00:15:53,519 --> 00:15:56,720 Um, and so we've got our with our 340 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:01,189 agenda. Um, 341 00:16:01,199 --> 00:16:03,680 the intent was to first talk about what 342 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:05,759 the problem is, you know, so we 343 00:16:05,759 --> 00:16:07,519 understand why we're doing this. You 344 00:16:07,519 --> 00:16:08,959 know, what what are the conditions we're 345 00:16:08,959 --> 00:16:13,040 seeing today? Um, I think from what 346 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:14,240 Christine was just talking about with 347 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:15,920 the salinity, we see, you know, our 348 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:18,399 salinity is right where we want it. I 349 00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:23,040 mean at this stage and um um but what we 350 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,440 want to talk about is the nitrogen and 351 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,360 you know how significant is that and 352 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,120 then um you know ask Christine to do her 353 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:32,560 magic and run through a number of 354 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:34,800 different scenarios to look at try try 355 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,639 to bracket some what if some concepts 356 00:16:38,639 --> 00:16:41,759 what if we do this or that and um you 357 00:16:41,759 --> 00:16:43,440 know there's still lot a fair amount of 358 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,800 uncertainty in all in all of this but I 359 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,279 think um with the information we have 360 00:16:49,279 --> 00:16:52,320 what we have and um and so I think we 361 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,079 want to just try to look at what what 362 00:16:54,079 --> 00:16:55,600 kind of trajectory have we been on and 363 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,360 what kind of trajectory do we want to be 364 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,480 on going forward. So that's that's 365 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,279 really what we're hoping to cover today 366 00:17:03,279 --> 00:17:06,000 and ideally we can have a recommendation 367 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,079 at the end of this meeting but if not 368 00:17:08,079 --> 00:17:10,880 you know hopefully we'll have some clear 369 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,946 action items on what we need 370 00:17:12,946 --> 00:17:15,600 [clears throat] to investigate you know 371 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,760 prep work that so that next month in 372 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:22,000 June when we meet uh we can we can um 373 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:26,959 make some recommendations. So, um, so I 374 00:17:26,959 --> 00:17:29,280 know I had circulated our our summary 375 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,360 from our meeting in March and just 376 00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:33,039 wanted to see if there's any comments on 377 00:17:33,039 --> 00:17:37,750 that. 378 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:44,720 » Just a maybe just a quick comment on the agenda. if if the I mean I want to 379 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:46,799 make sure that the today's discussion we 380 00:17:46,799 --> 00:17:49,039 kind of discuss you know where we're at 381 00:17:49,039 --> 00:17:50,960 today and then also maybe if we needed 382 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:52,480 to if you would consider making a 383 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,880 recommendation prior to that that's on 384 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,240 the table because I think like with this 385 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,799 whole nutrient issue you know we really 386 00:17:58,799 --> 00:18:00,240 ought to think about whether we want to 387 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:01,440 do something this year and I think we 388 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,200 wait till our June meeting you know 389 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,440 those are the few weeks that delay you 390 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:08,000 know any import of nutrients and salts 391 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,559 that we may want to you know see in the 392 00:18:10,559 --> 00:18:12,640 breach and so if that's 393 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,000 I think we should discuss that today and 394 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,000 see if that's as early as we think or if 395 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,080 it's you know the group thinks that it's 396 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,120 not then obviously you know we you know 397 00:18:21,120 --> 00:18:22,720 we can wait but I think if you were to 398 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,720 talk about modifying the firm waiting 399 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:28,960 for June we're raise it right back up 400 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,600 short 401 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:32,960 so anyway I just want to throw that out 402 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,919 there consider whether or not any action 403 00:18:35,919 --> 00:18:42,390 is more urgent to want to consider that 404 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,080 Great. Well, thank you. Um, so just I 405 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,320 guess this is just a point of order in 406 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:53,760 terms of our meeting summary from last meeting. Were there any comments on 407 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,160 that? 408 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,080 And if not, entertain a motion to 409 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:02,470 approve them. 410 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,000 » Thank you. Second. 411 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:08,960 >> Thank you. And any so I guess um like 412 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,000 vote for to approve them. 413 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:17,350 Say I 414 00:19:17,360 --> 00:19:18,960 » not want to approve them or have 415 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,400 questions on them. All right. Well, 416 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,960 they've been approved unanimously. 417 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,960 So let's let's jump back in. Sorry 418 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,160 through that stuff. Um did you talk 419 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:36,080 about membership or should we 420 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,640 >> we haven't and I do it's I think we you 421 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:43,110 know discuss having some 422 00:19:43,120 --> 00:19:46,160 time to discuss that again 423 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:51,120 >> well um we we've had some changes in 424 00:19:51,120 --> 00:19:54,480 and some proposed changes and here you 425 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,840 can see the um 426 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,080 you know who are current standing 427 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:04,240 committee is we have a member 428 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,160 and then a voting member. We have a 429 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,160 couple of non- voting members and then 430 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,000 everybody or most everybody has an 431 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:14,240 alternate and um one of the proposed 432 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:18,559 changes was for Andrew and Elliot to 433 00:20:18,559 --> 00:20:21,600 switch. Um Andrew is currently our our 434 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,600 voting member. Elliot spann our 435 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:24,960 alternate 436 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:29,600 >> and um and they had suggested or asked 437 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,320 even um if they could make that switch 438 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,799 but Elliot would now become our our 439 00:20:34,799 --> 00:20:35,840 voting member. 440 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,280 >> You guys are okay. 441 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:42,630 >> I I don't know why this but 442 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,799 » love you all. 443 00:20:44,799 --> 00:20:47,440 What's that? 444 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:52,400 >> Oh, yes. This is January 25. 445 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:53,840 >> Yeah. 446 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,400 >> Um, 447 00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:00,240 so I I guess any 448 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:04,310 concerns with that? 449 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,000 » As long as they start bringing cookies 450 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:16,789 as well. 451 00:21:16,799 --> 00:21:18,159 Do we need a vote on these things or are 452 00:21:18,159 --> 00:21:21,360 we good? I think this just seems like a 453 00:21:21,360 --> 00:21:22,320 >> we're good. 454 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,640 >> I I would also suggest Well, not suggest 455 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:26,400 I'd like to take off Mark Reynolds from 456 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,679 US Magnesium. I don't think they need 457 00:21:27,679 --> 00:21:29,440 that anymore. But I would suggest that 458 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,679 based on you know with us or excuse me 459 00:21:31,679 --> 00:21:33,520 with Cargill and Morton still you know 460 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,600 attending these regularly perhaps you 461 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,880 guys can talk together about 462 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,320 manage or I guess represent South AR 463 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,559 mineral industry among the two of you 464 00:21:44,559 --> 00:21:46,480 and maybe it's a you know primary 465 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,320 alternate kind of relationship we all 466 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,080 have but maybe you all can propose how 467 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,480 you'd like to handle that. Yeah. And I 468 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:53,840 don't have a pretty young spot here 469 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,200 today, but maybe that's okay for the 470 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:56,720 next meeting, but that's okay. 471 00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:01,840 >> Yep. Exactly. So, um, so if you guys can 472 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,320 talk about that, I we can chat offline 473 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,559 too if we need to. Um, and then the 474 00:22:06,559 --> 00:22:10,400 third one, um, Phil Johnson 475 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,039 mentioned to Angela that, um, Paul Juel 476 00:22:13,039 --> 00:22:15,440 has asked to be taken off the list as as 477 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,960 his alternate at University of Utah. Um 478 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,440 I don't think he proposed another 479 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:22,480 alternate yet. 480 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,880 >> He go for names. Um but he he said it 481 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:31,039 was more a matter of what kind of 482 00:22:31,039 --> 00:22:33,360 so he suggested 483 00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:36,240 and I don't think he's 484 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:41,190 mind but he suggested Michael 485 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:47,510 the microbial biochemist or at US 486 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,520 or David Tarbot who's a hydraologist. So 487 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,520 I think it just depends on the 488 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:58,149 community. 489 00:22:58,159 --> 00:23:02,320 » Great. So we'll follow up with on that. 490 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,960 Um and then Ben, you mentioned adding 491 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,320 somebody from Utah State. 492 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,240 >> I think that just given the amount of 493 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,320 work that they do in this sphere, it 494 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:11,600 would make sense to have someone from 495 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,240 Utah State represented. We also 496 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,880 >> Yeah. Yeah. But we also have you know 497 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,640 the other research universities pretty 498 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,080 well represented. So I think Utah State 499 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,000 just is a natural fit for Brian right 500 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,480 now. But I think uh in the past Brian 501 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,400 Krookton had expressed interest but 502 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,400 probably can't make it in person. So as 503 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,320 long as we're okay with him joining 504 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,720 virtually I think we should probably 505 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,240 reend that invite him in attendance but 506 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,600 I think you know David Tarb. 507 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:41,600 He was gonna say David was mentioned by 508 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,039 Bill and he'd be good. 509 00:23:43,039 --> 00:23:45,280 >> So maybe we can revisit that and then at 510 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,200 our next meeting figure out the south 511 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:48,960 arm industry 512 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,679 state and fields replacement. 513 00:23:51,679 --> 00:23:54,320 >> Yeah. Does that work? 514 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,120 >> Perfect. So we we primarily today just 515 00:23:57,120 --> 00:23:59,440 wanted to make you aware of some of 516 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:04,320 these changing some shifts and 517 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,960 where we're headed there. So if you have 518 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,240 any ideas or other people or that you 519 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:11,840 think should be included in these 520 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,110 conversations 521 00:24:15,120 --> 00:24:21,510 or other than then 522 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,679 » All right. 523 00:24:23,679 --> 00:24:26,960 Well, let's let's move on to the the 524 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:30,240 issue at hand. Um, I asked Kyle if he 525 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,919 could kind of give us a an overview of 526 00:24:33,919 --> 00:24:37,440 the observations that the that Glept had 527 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,440 been making and their researchers and 528 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,600 TAG have been talking about over the 529 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,159 last six months. um because I think 530 00:24:44,159 --> 00:24:46,320 really the monitoring work that they've 531 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,799 done you know amongst that whole group 532 00:24:50,799 --> 00:24:54,480 um had identified this concerning trend 533 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,679 and I wanted to make sure you all 534 00:24:57,679 --> 00:24:59,440 haven't had a chance to watch the video 535 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:07,669 or been involved 536 00:25:07,679 --> 00:25:19,269 All 537 00:25:19,279 --> 00:25:22,480 right. So, one of the things that we 538 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:29,750 were seeing this year is in respect to 539 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:36,310 » Sorry, that was 540 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:45,029 okay. So our um portfoly 541 00:25:45,039 --> 00:25:47,760 was a great word to put into this and 542 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,400 trend is probably a strong word to use 543 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,799 it. Um so these are the graphs that we 544 00:25:54,799 --> 00:25:56,559 present at our tag meeting. So most of 545 00:25:56,559 --> 00:25:58,320 you have probably seen some version of 546 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,480 this. Uh this is for the current year 547 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,080 2026. 548 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,760 And so the um y- axis is going to be 549 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,000 concentration in micrograms per liter by 550 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,640 month. And then we have our minimum and 551 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,159 maximum are going to be the the gray 552 00:26:12,159 --> 00:26:14,720 dashed lines. The solid gray box is our 553 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:19,279 25th to 75th percentiles. The dark 554 00:26:19,279 --> 00:26:22,000 dashed line is the five-year average. 555 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,400 The bold line is the long-term average 556 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,480 going back to 1994. 557 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,080 And then we have our current year in 558 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,039 red. And then 2025 is going to be in the 559 00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:33,440 gold kind of yellowish color. And the 560 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,360 thing that is concerning and it's hard 561 00:26:35,360 --> 00:26:37,760 to see on this graph is the steep 562 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:41,360 decline in December in forest LA values 563 00:26:41,360 --> 00:26:44,240 and then that kind of bottoming out in 564 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,360 January and then that steep rise. And 565 00:26:47,360 --> 00:26:49,360 it's one of those where if anybody 566 00:26:49,360 --> 00:26:51,840 remembers back to the tag meeting uh in 567 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,520 April, we actually didn't have this 568 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,080 bottom point because we measured we went 569 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,520 from it was roughly 70 micrograms per 570 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:03,840 liter in late November. It was 36 in mid 571 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,559 December. It bottomed out to six in 572 00:27:06,559 --> 00:27:11,360 early January and then went back to 75 573 00:27:11,360 --> 00:27:14,720 by late January. So in the span of from 574 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,279 I think it was December 18th to January 575 00:27:17,279 --> 00:27:22,799 20th, we went from 70 to six back to 75 576 00:27:22,799 --> 00:27:26,320 with very few shrimp in. 577 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,320 So that was the concern that caused us 578 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,799 to investigate a little bit more. So if 579 00:27:30,799 --> 00:27:34,799 we look at this is our same basic data. 580 00:27:34,799 --> 00:27:37,120 This is the average concentration kind 581 00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:39,200 of spread out on that multi-year scale. 582 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:44,240 So 2013 to 2026, the vertical lines that 583 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,640 you can see kind of making up the grid 584 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:47,840 square, it's going to be centered on 585 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,159 January because it's really that mid- 586 00:27:50,159 --> 00:27:52,640 winter period is where we're seeing this 587 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,279 kind of concerning trend. And if you 588 00:27:55,279 --> 00:27:57,679 look at kind of the historic record, you 589 00:27:57,679 --> 00:28:01,520 know, the 90s up prior to 2013, they 590 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,240 really tend to look almost like 2017 591 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:05,760 where it's kind of an average year where 592 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,080 there's some variability and we do see 593 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,000 some decreases. We do see some 594 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,520 increases. This is likely sampling 595 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,360 errors going out every two weeks. This 596 00:28:15,360 --> 00:28:19,600 could be solar exposure changes. 597 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,279 We're not sure what's driving these 598 00:28:21,279 --> 00:28:23,200 things. There could be several factors 599 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,559 that go on. Uh you can definitely see 600 00:28:26,559 --> 00:28:30,399 the influence of big runoff here on 2023 601 00:28:30,399 --> 00:28:32,640 how it's you know over here and very 602 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,880 steep and dramatic but even then we do 603 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:40,159 see drops at certain times. Um 2014 is 604 00:28:40,159 --> 00:28:42,559 another example of like a really good 605 00:28:42,559 --> 00:28:45,520 kind of normal year of what we expect to 606 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,320 see over the long-term average. And then 607 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,080 we get into some of these more 608 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,559 concernings like 2026 over here. This 609 00:28:52,559 --> 00:28:55,760 really steep decline in January. Uh we 610 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,640 saw this similar effect in 2021 and in 611 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,159 2015. So it's not a new thing by any 612 00:29:02,159 --> 00:29:06,799 means. The most alarming thing is the 613 00:29:06,799 --> 00:29:09,120 degree to which the variation is. I 614 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:10,880 mean, you know, if you look in like 615 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,279 relative percentage, we lost roughly 616 00:29:13,279 --> 00:29:15,520 half in 2015, 617 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:20,799 maybe twothirds in 2021, and almost 80% 618 00:29:20,799 --> 00:29:23,600 in 2026. 619 00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,440 And the other thing that goes along with 620 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,440 this is the water clarity stays the 621 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:31,600 same. So the lake is garden green just 622 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,760 like we would expect, but for some 623 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,480 reason there have been degradation or 624 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,799 loss of chlorophyll a 625 00:29:38,799 --> 00:29:42,080 for essence. And 626 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,760 as we scratch our heads and talk about 627 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,480 this internally, talking with Gary, 628 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,240 talking with other different people, 629 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,120 we've kind of determined that 630 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,840 floor is not being consumed and changed 631 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,520 like we see in the summer months where 632 00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,399 you know all these dips in the summer 633 00:30:00,399 --> 00:30:02,960 months and the bottoming out the lake 634 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,360 goes your second transparency goes from 635 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,640 you know 2.3 meters to 636 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,799 four and a half five meter depth. 637 00:30:10,799 --> 00:30:13,600 And during this time period in January, 638 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,200 we're staying in that same 3.4, 639 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:25,520 but our core values are viable. So it's an odd response that we're not. 640 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,840 >> So was that one measurement that bottom 641 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:28,240 out? 642 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:28,880 >> Yes. 643 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,440 >> And in 2021, can we see two measurements 644 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:31,840 that 645 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,720 >> Yes. And that's and these are averages 646 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,799 of our 17 different sites. So this is an 647 00:30:36,799 --> 00:30:38,960 average across the south. 648 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,200 >> But yes, that is one measurement and 649 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:42,960 that's why we didn't present it in tag 650 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:44,240 is because we thought we messed 651 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,880 something up somewhere in our process. 652 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,200 We do we run everything against two 653 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:50,720 chlorometers now. So we have the old 654 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:54,480 TD700 that we had some user error with 655 00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,559 several years ago and that forced us to 656 00:30:56,559 --> 00:31:00,876 buy the new uh the new trilogy. 657 00:31:00,876 --> 00:31:01,600 [snorts] 658 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,600 And so we actually run every sample in 659 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,039 both and they were both in agreement and 660 00:31:07,039 --> 00:31:09,200 they were both very low. 661 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,080 >> Do how many samples do you take in the 662 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:13,760 field? Can you do a standard deviation 663 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:14,399 or 664 00:31:14,399 --> 00:31:15,279 >> 17? 665 00:31:15,279 --> 00:31:18,320 one for each site and then we're 666 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,159 averaging. 667 00:31:20,159 --> 00:31:20,799 >> Yeah. 668 00:31:20,799 --> 00:31:22,320 >> One for each site. 669 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:23,840 >> Okay. 670 00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,760 >> So could you do three for each site so 671 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:30,000 you can or is that too much too? It's 672 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:31,520 that's a lot of cost. 673 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:32,320 >> Yeah. 674 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:36,080 >> So these are averaged over sites 675 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,480 and uh so these numbers up here. 676 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,080 >> Yeah. So these numbers is going to be 677 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:41,840 the average for the entire length of 678 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:42,240 that. 679 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:42,960 >> Gotcha. 680 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,600 >> And looking at the data for this one, we 681 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:49,279 only had one that was above 20 micro. 682 00:31:49,279 --> 00:31:49,919 Oh, 683 00:31:49,919 --> 00:31:51,919 >> everything was bottomed out in that six 684 00:31:51,919 --> 00:31:52,640 to five month. 685 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,480 >> So, it'd be great if you could put error 686 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,679 bars on those just so we could see and 687 00:31:57,679 --> 00:31:59,120 you'd be averaging them for different 688 00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:00,559 sites, but still it would be 689 00:32:00,559 --> 00:32:02,399 >> Yeah, and we could probably do that, but 690 00:32:02,399 --> 00:32:03,679 um for the most part, these are going to 691 00:32:03,679 --> 00:32:04,720 be fairly smaller. 692 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,000 >> Yeah. Okay, cool. 693 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,279 >> Yeah, we can. 694 00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:08,960 >> Thanks for getting into the weeds there. 695 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,519 >> Yeah, no problem. Um, and that's one of 696 00:32:11,519 --> 00:32:12,720 those things where we kind of chalk it 697 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,720 up to, okay, well, maybe it's a one-time 698 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:18,720 thing or it's a fairly quick rebound, 699 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,200 but the thing that seems the most likely 700 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:25,120 is some sort of nutrient limitation to 701 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,039 the phytolanin themselves because it's 702 00:32:27,039 --> 00:32:29,840 not a grazing pressure response. It 703 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,760 seems to be a okay carrying capacity 704 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,120 and then population tanking response. 705 00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,200 Not really sure that part of that 706 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,360 uncertainty because we don't fully 707 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,399 understand nutrient cycling in the way 708 00:32:44,399 --> 00:32:46,640 whether that's south arm, north arm, DBL 709 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,440 president, DBL as 710 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,200 you have 711 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,600 microscopy for that. 712 00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:54,000 >> Okay. 713 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,559 >> Yes. So when we collect these samples, 714 00:32:56,559 --> 00:32:59,600 we collect five samples at five of the 715 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,080 sites. one sample at five sites that 716 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,399 then are looked at in microscopy 717 00:33:04,399 --> 00:33:05,919 and 718 00:33:05,919 --> 00:33:09,519 the cells there's not a shift in 719 00:33:09,519 --> 00:33:11,120 phytolantic community 720 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,840 >> so it's still dominated by deniala 721 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:17,039 and the cell counts go down but not this 722 00:33:17,039 --> 00:33:20,880 dramatically so that's another odd thing 723 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,200 where our cell counts aren't changing a 724 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,440 whole lot 725 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,559 but our detected delay 726 00:33:28,559 --> 00:33:29,279 is 727 00:33:29,279 --> 00:33:34,880 >> you said at like 25% and roughly 728 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,399 >> it's it's definitely smaller. It's not 729 00:33:36,399 --> 00:33:40,799 the 80%. So yeah, it's 730 00:33:40,799 --> 00:33:43,519 >> a little closer 731 00:33:43,519 --> 00:33:46,799 nitrogen for 2021. 732 00:33:46,799 --> 00:33:49,440 >> We should. Yeah, 733 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:54,630 >> sort of against 734 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,320 » something we just haven't had time with 735 00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,960 our schedules to connect. 736 00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,360 >> That was going to be an ask 737 00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,039 overlay this sort of 738 00:34:03,039 --> 00:34:04,640 >> the other thing to remember is the the 739 00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:08,159 nutrient data is once a month at best. 740 00:34:08,159 --> 00:34:09,839 So a lot of times it averages out about 741 00:34:09,839 --> 00:34:13,679 every six weeks. So if these are such a 742 00:34:13,679 --> 00:34:17,040 short, you know, they can recover in one 743 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,200 to two weeks, 744 00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:23,280 we may not be capturing that. That's and 745 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:24,879 that's one of those things is maybe in 746 00:34:24,879 --> 00:34:29,040 2014 2017 maybe we miss how drastic the 747 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,599 decline was 748 00:34:31,599 --> 00:34:33,440 that speaks to all that uncertainty with 749 00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,710 just that 750 00:34:36,720 --> 00:34:39,359 cross plotting any physical parameters 751 00:34:39,359 --> 00:34:42,240 like climate temperature 752 00:34:42,240 --> 00:34:42,960 >> we looked at all 753 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:44,800 >> just to see if anything is 754 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:46,879 >> there's there's no there's no clear 755 00:34:46,879 --> 00:34:48,560 indication 756 00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:53,839 of anything salinity temperature 757 00:34:53,839 --> 00:34:55,599 weather's 758 00:34:55,599 --> 00:34:57,839 hard because it's hard to get old 759 00:34:57,839 --> 00:35:00,480 weather data. So that's why I like 760 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:05,760 saying solar exposure is an unknown. 761 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,560 >> Kyle, did that happen in 2022? I mean, I 762 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,560 know it's not exactly the same. 763 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,720 >> Yeah. And I I purposely didn't highlight 764 00:35:12,720 --> 00:35:16,079 2022 because there's so much going on in 765 00:35:16,079 --> 00:35:17,680 2022 766 00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:19,920 that it's hard to pin it down to just 767 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:24,560 this decline and and quick response. 768 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,920 2022 was highly variable, but this is 769 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,520 all before we modified the burn in 20 770 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,079 because we didn't modify the BM until 771 00:35:34,079 --> 00:35:36,800 late summer in July. 772 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,560 Um so we would have been dealing with 773 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,480 higher salinity issues. we would have 774 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,599 been dealing with similar or lower lake 775 00:35:43,599 --> 00:35:46,480 elevations than we have currently. But 776 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:48,640 when you look at 777 00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,720 magnitude, amplitude, everything, when 778 00:35:50,720 --> 00:35:53,599 you think about salinity levels being 779 00:35:53,599 --> 00:35:57,520 closer to 180 g per liter at that time 780 00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:01,920 versus the current, you know, 120ish. 781 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:03,520 I don't know that salinity is really 782 00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,119 going to be the driving factor because 783 00:36:05,119 --> 00:36:08,400 they're so decoupled like you know so 784 00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:09,920 separated in those two years 785 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,200 specifically. 786 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,040 >> But the reason I'm asking is we do have 787 00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:14,880 three data points there that are really 788 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:15,680 low. Yes. 789 00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,720 >> Which might you know I mean interesting 790 00:36:18,720 --> 00:36:20,640 to see how the nitrogen overlaps. 791 00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,440 >> Yeah. And that's kind of what we get to 792 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,400 later in in the talk with some of Gary 793 00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,560 some patients. 794 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,119 Um, so how active are the phytolanin at 795 00:36:31,119 --> 00:36:32,960 this time of year? I mean, are they 796 00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:33,599 actively 797 00:36:33,599 --> 00:36:35,680 >> They seem to be the most active from the 798 00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,680 lab experiments that Gary's lab has been 799 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:41,760 running. The cold temperature and the 800 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:43,359 lack of grazing pressure when they seem 801 00:36:43,359 --> 00:36:46,480 to do best. So they they actually prefer 802 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,200 the winter for whatever reason. 803 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,040 >> I actually have to put an asterisk here 804 00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:52,320 because if you're looking at 805 00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:53,839 chlorophyll, you're not looking at 806 00:36:53,839 --> 00:36:56,000 photosynthesis. So when we do carbon 807 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:57,839 fixation experiments and I've said this 808 00:36:57,839 --> 00:36:58,400 before, 809 00:36:58,400 --> 00:36:58,880 >> yeah, 810 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,680 >> they're not doing photosynthesis because 811 00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,680 any any kind of biochemistry proceeds 812 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:08,160 more slowly when it's cold. So um that 813 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:09,839 there there is chlorophyll 814 00:37:09,839 --> 00:37:11,119 >> there is chlorophyll present but it may 815 00:37:11,119 --> 00:37:11,920 not be active. 816 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:12,320 >> Correct. 817 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:12,960 >> Perfect. 818 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,400 >> Correct. They are not doing 819 00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:16,400 photosynthesis at the rate they would be 820 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:17,200 when it's warm. 821 00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:18,079 >> And that makes sense. 822 00:37:18,079 --> 00:37:19,599 >> Right. So they're not fixing carbon 823 00:37:19,599 --> 00:37:21,280 >> but from a population standpoint. 824 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,280 >> Correct. They are 825 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,359 >> it's a good growing. 826 00:37:25,359 --> 00:37:28,390 >> Yeah. 827 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,720 » And that's the other thing is maybe this 828 00:37:30,720 --> 00:37:33,040 is setting off a warning bell that it 829 00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:34,800 shouldn't because maybe this is not the 830 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,440 metric to to study, but this is data 831 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:39,359 that we collect and have collected for a 832 00:37:39,359 --> 00:37:41,760 lot of years and it's doing things that 833 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,520 we don't expect it to do 834 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,480 >> and it's doing it to a higher degree 835 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,839 this year relative to other. 836 00:37:49,839 --> 00:37:51,119 So I think that's kind of where that 837 00:37:51,119 --> 00:37:52,800 came from. Then we're just looking at 838 00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,200 these individual years a little closer. 839 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,880 So you can see that in 2015 where we 840 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,880 dropped from, you know, the mid50s to 841 00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:05,270 the mid20s. 842 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,160 Looking at the 2021 843 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,839 data, we're dropping, you know, from the 844 00:38:11,839 --> 00:38:15,359 60s to the 15s, you know, the mid teens. 845 00:38:15,359 --> 00:38:17,599 pretty significant drop head. It remains 846 00:38:17,599 --> 00:38:21,040 there for a two week period. So sample 847 00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:22,320 collected and then two weeks later 848 00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,560 another sample collected and it remained 849 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,359 low. 850 00:38:27,359 --> 00:38:30,480 Looking at this 2026, I have 25 and 26 851 00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:34,000 here because they almost look opposite 852 00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,760 where 2025 has like kind of some it 853 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,720 starts up, dips down, really gets shot 854 00:38:40,720 --> 00:38:43,200 up, and then starts to dip down. And the 855 00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,839 shrimp don't come in in 2025 until more 856 00:38:45,839 --> 00:38:48,320 of that April time frame. And then in 857 00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,000 2026, which are going to be in the next 858 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,280 couple graphs where we're going to 859 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,760 overlay some trend data over here, we 860 00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,960 see this really steep drop through 861 00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,440 December and January. Kyle, do you have 862 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,040 you guys like tried to correlate this 863 00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,680 data with like just things like 864 00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,320 precipitation pattern, snow pack, fm 865 00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:07,599 opening and closing just like 866 00:39:07,599 --> 00:39:10,720 >> we haven't 867 00:39:10,720 --> 00:39:13,359 that's kind of why we ask other people 868 00:39:13,359 --> 00:39:14,960 have a little bit more time. Yeah, I was 869 00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,440 thinking about Elliot's question. 870 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,280 What if we can look at like session 871 00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,079 event on the ledge 872 00:39:22,079 --> 00:39:25,280 >> because like you might see some I mean 873 00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:26,720 I'm looking at your data in January 874 00:39:26,720 --> 00:39:28,160 that's when we have some of our 875 00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,720 strongest northwest 876 00:39:30,720 --> 00:39:35,040 setups and session. 877 00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,160 >> Yeah, exactly. 878 00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,359 take your sample dates bottom on like 879 00:39:41,359 --> 00:39:44,880 the hydrograph there see what's 880 00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,280 happening yeah 881 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:48,079 >> I'm open 882 00:39:48,079 --> 00:39:49,520 >> because that would basically tell you 883 00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,119 weather right you said weather is really 884 00:39:51,119 --> 00:39:54,320 difficult and I think I totally agree 885 00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,839 elevation yeah 886 00:39:57,839 --> 00:40:04,470 those big 887 00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:06,160 » you didn't I mean with that like just 888 00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,079 giving your kind of an oxid layer the 889 00:40:08,079 --> 00:40:09,920 bottom stirred up because I think 890 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:11,839 >> previous researchers have seen this 891 00:40:11,839 --> 00:40:14,000 really stark changes in DO when you get 892 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,480 absolutely big stirring up kind of 893 00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,040 bottom anoxic down the bottom anox stuff 894 00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:20,880 and even with the deep brine layer 895 00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,400 there's I think some suggestion that if 896 00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,320 you get sulfur into the upper brine 897 00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,400 layer they think it consumes oxygen so 898 00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,280 there's no mechanisms that could stir up 899 00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:30,960 those bottom sediments exactly and kind 900 00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,760 of have a maybe a temporary diet or two 901 00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:35,839 >> yeah you sent us the date we could 902 00:40:35,839 --> 00:40:39,030 collaborate on 903 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:48,230 and see where it 904 00:40:48,240 --> 00:40:49,920 » I don't know if it's coincidence but 905 00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:53,280 each of those three years happened after 906 00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,359 two to three consecutive years of the 907 00:40:55,359 --> 00:40:56,319 lake drop 908 00:40:56,319 --> 00:40:57,200 >> right 909 00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,720 >> so that and that winter is that low 910 00:41:00,720 --> 00:41:04,240 point so it might just be a new set of 911 00:41:04,240 --> 00:41:06,880 microbial that are exposed 912 00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:08,720 now and not contribute. 913 00:41:08,720 --> 00:41:10,720 >> That's very possible. 914 00:41:10,720 --> 00:41:15,760 >> But this is this is in the water. 915 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:17,760 So this is taken it's an integrated 916 00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,800 sample to six meters of depth. So below 917 00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,839 six feet you go to the bottom with about 918 00:41:23,839 --> 00:41:26,560 a 2 in hose tap the end of it. Bring 919 00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,359 that back up kind of modulize it in a 920 00:41:29,359 --> 00:41:32,560 bucket and then take sample. 921 00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,520 Just a quick note on the style. Um, we 922 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:39,040 sampled on the 13th of January and our 923 00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:41,599 chlorophyll is about 85. So, a bit of a 924 00:41:41,599 --> 00:41:43,280 dip is a very short one. 925 00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:44,880 >> It was very short this year because we 926 00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,240 did the same thing. Like I say, we got 927 00:41:46,240 --> 00:41:48,079 that six. We were going back out on a 928 00:41:48,079 --> 00:41:49,760 shrimp only run. We weren't scheduled to 929 00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,240 collect any and we took kind of a random 930 00:41:52,240 --> 00:41:54,720 sample, four or five of them and we're 931 00:41:54,720 --> 00:41:58,720 right back to 65 78 where we would have. 932 00:41:58,720 --> 00:42:00,960 Yeah, that that's curiously quick. But 933 00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,440 you know on another note in 2025 that 934 00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,400 mid- winter dip without heria present 935 00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,400 and we see that too. That's multiple 936 00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:10,960 dates. That's a curiosity through 937 00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:12,640 >> and so 938 00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:14,480 and it could be all these things right 939 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,160 because everything's going to have a 940 00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,000 little bit of 941 00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,680 smoke and oxid layers and that's why 942 00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,640 it's not maybe the we have to do this 943 00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,440 right now. It's a 944 00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,680 there's a lot we don't know. Should we 945 00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,560 combine our data sets so that you know 946 00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:34,400 because we don't always go out from the 947 00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:39,109 same date. So 948 00:42:39,119 --> 00:42:41,200 look at you have to look into you know 949 00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:42,560 for any of this we have to look into 950 00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,160 data sharing agreements and some of that 951 00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:49,280 stuff we'd be okay with that 952 00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:53,040 >> I think there's capacity there we just 953 00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,839 >> data is your data not public 954 00:42:55,839 --> 00:43:00,319 >> it is but it's protected right so it's a 955 00:43:00,319 --> 00:43:02,800 we have an extra layer of some of it for 956 00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,520 the raw data but we just have 957 00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,440 talk to our administrator and make sure 958 00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,349 what the are 959 00:43:11,359 --> 00:43:13,200 » I think we've done that in the past when 960 00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:14,880 you guys couldn't go out. 961 00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:19,030 >> Yeah, you22 962 00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:26,069 » it's just an all. 963 00:43:26,079 --> 00:43:28,560 So when we overlay the shrimp numbers 964 00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:30,079 because this is the other thing that 965 00:43:30,079 --> 00:43:31,680 we're out collecting is brine shrimp 966 00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:35,280 sampling. So these are total adults or 967 00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:36,880 not total adults. This is total shrimp. 968 00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,040 So this includes nap eye and most of 969 00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,440 these peaks are going to be driven by 970 00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:47,599 eye 2025 and then again six. And so 971 00:43:47,599 --> 00:43:49,119 I had to go back and actually look at 972 00:43:49,119 --> 00:43:51,680 the physical numbers because 973 00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,640 60 shrimp per liter seemed like a lot 974 00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:58,240 and it was accurate. We had a huge patch 975 00:43:58,240 --> 00:44:00,560 this last year in 2025. 976 00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:04,319 And you can see this midwinter dip early 977 00:44:04,319 --> 00:44:07,839 in January well before there was any 978 00:44:07,839 --> 00:44:10,240 sort of established recruitment or any 979 00:44:10,240 --> 00:44:13,280 sort of meaningful hatch coming and then 980 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:17,040 that persists into the late winter 981 00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:18,240 because we tend to see these 982 00:44:18,240 --> 00:44:21,200 oscillations, different generation peaks 983 00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,040 and then they kind of graze it down. it 984 00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:24,640 rebounds, the shrimp rebounds, the 985 00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:26,319 chlorophyll rebounds, and they just kind 986 00:44:26,319 --> 00:44:27,920 of chase each other like we see through 987 00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,240 the summer months here in 25. And then 988 00:44:30,240 --> 00:44:32,400 as the shrimp start to be suppressed 989 00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,680 with temperature drops and that grazing 990 00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,920 pressure goes away, we see this rebound 991 00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:40,720 through November. And then we hit this 992 00:44:40,720 --> 00:44:43,440 curious decline in December and there is 993 00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,839 a tiny bump there. We get a little extra 994 00:44:45,839 --> 00:44:47,839 hatch because December was abnormally 995 00:44:47,839 --> 00:44:50,319 warm, 996 00:44:50,319 --> 00:44:52,160 >> but it's not enough grazing pressure to 997 00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,960 explain it all. 998 00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,319 >> But this is just going to be the 999 00:44:56,319 --> 00:44:59,599 continuation of this graph into 2026. So 1000 00:44:59,599 --> 00:45:01,680 the green line's going to come down, 1001 00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:03,359 contact with the bottom point, and that 1002 00:45:03,359 --> 00:45:06,079 red line's going to extend up into that 1003 00:45:06,079 --> 00:45:08,560 first little bump in January. And then 1004 00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:11,440 we have our initial hatch. I wasn't I 1005 00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:13,200 didn't have time to update the graph to 1006 00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:14,960 current conditions, but we're starting 1007 00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,599 to see more peaks that are going to be 1008 00:45:17,599 --> 00:45:19,680 suppressing this 1009 00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:25,589 perhaps established. 1010 00:45:25,599 --> 00:45:28,400 So, it's a bit uncertain. And then for 1011 00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:30,800 anybody that hasn't watched the tag 1012 00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:32,560 meeting, I definitely recommend you go 1013 00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:34,240 back and get the better version of this 1014 00:45:34,240 --> 00:45:36,079 where you can get everything that Gary 1015 00:45:36,079 --> 00:45:38,960 says and all his caveats about being a 1016 00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,359 hydraologist. 1017 00:45:41,359 --> 00:45:43,119 I'm going to do my best to summarize 1018 00:45:43,119 --> 00:45:47,440 some of the key points of that 1019 00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,160 when we put the BM in place, it did its 1020 00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:52,800 job and it blocked north to south flow. 1021 00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:54,480 And that's what the little graph shows 1022 00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,400 here in the bottom right hand corner. 1023 00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,640 flow from north to south functionally 1024 00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,119 stopped for a very long time and is now 1025 00:46:01,119 --> 00:46:03,599 slowly starting to come back with the 1026 00:46:03,599 --> 00:46:09,510 erosion the burn session 1027 00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:13,599 USGS is collecting some outflow on there 1028 00:46:13,599 --> 00:46:15,599 again we don't understand enough of that 1029 00:46:15,599 --> 00:46:17,359 because we don't continuous monitoring 1030 00:46:17,359 --> 00:46:21,910 for all the reason we're talking 1031 00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:23,839 » seeing this Gary looked at some of the 1032 00:46:23,839 --> 00:46:26,319 data ran it through the ecosystem model. 1033 00:46:26,319 --> 00:46:28,560 They could build it for us, come up with 1034 00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,720 some numbers. 1035 00:46:30,720 --> 00:46:32,800 Very general back in the end 1036 00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,480 calculations. These are not hard 1037 00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:38,400 numbers, but they get to the trend of 1038 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,880 without the BM, we get a state of 1039 00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:43,520 equilibrium where there's about two and 1040 00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:46,079 a half times the concentration in the 1041 00:46:46,079 --> 00:46:47,520 north arm than there is in the south 1042 00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,240 arm. And that falls in line with what we 1043 00:46:50,240 --> 00:46:54,800 measure with the nutrient samples. 1044 00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:58,319 Since putting the burm in, that has 1045 00:46:58,319 --> 00:47:00,720 shifted slightly because we're not 1046 00:47:00,720 --> 00:47:03,680 seeing that north arm return. And it 1047 00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:06,400 seems that the nitrogen pool in the 1048 00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:09,280 south arm is starting to export into the 1049 00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,520 north arm. 1050 00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:13,680 Again, it falls in line with the 1051 00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:15,280 observations. You know, the model's 1052 00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,680 predicting 3.7 observations are about 1053 00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:23,750 3.9, which is pretty close. 1054 00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:25,280 There again, I don't know how much stock 1055 00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,400 you want to put in these hard numbers, 1056 00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,599 but it really does kind of show that we 1057 00:47:31,599 --> 00:47:34,720 are exporting nutrients and nitrogen to 1058 00:47:34,720 --> 00:47:36,880 the north arm. 1059 00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,760 At what rate? We're not sure. Like say 1060 00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:41,440 the cycling in the south arm versus the 1061 00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,560 cycling in the north arm is not well 1062 00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:47,589 understood. 1063 00:47:47,599 --> 00:47:49,520 could be contributing to some of these 1064 00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:52,240 issues. 1065 00:47:52,240 --> 00:47:55,200 But it does show up in some of our data 1066 00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:58,079 as we look at it a little closer 1067 00:47:58,079 --> 00:48:01,440 to where we do see um a bit of a 1068 00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,839 suppression in 1069 00:48:03,839 --> 00:48:07,520 the microbialite biomass 1070 00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:12,480 and in the phytolankton biomass 1071 00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:15,200 where we're starting to see that maybe 1072 00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,680 numbers have come down and then that 1073 00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,880 we're also seeing that 1074 00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:22,960 what word you want to put comments, but 1075 00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:26,079 the chlorophyll content per cell, which 1076 00:48:26,079 --> 00:48:27,760 is not something that we tracked 1077 00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:30,800 explicitly. We didn't measure cell size. 1078 00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:34,240 We do cell counts and we do. 1079 00:48:34,240 --> 00:48:36,400 And so, but we're starting to see maybe 1080 00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:39,760 a separation at what it once was in the 1081 00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,839 high salinity years versus what it is 1082 00:48:41,839 --> 00:48:46,640 now in the lower SL maybe not as many or 1083 00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:48,960 class per cell. 1084 00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:52,319 What what did Gary's data go back to on 1085 00:48:52,319 --> 00:48:55,680 nitrogen imports like yeah that graph 1086 00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,160 showed that the firm 1087 00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:04,230 apologiz 1088 00:49:04,240 --> 00:49:06,079 uh okay he goes back pretty far 1089 00:49:06,079 --> 00:49:07,599 >> so yeah he goes back pretty far so the 1090 00:49:07,599 --> 00:49:10,400 97 and then there's that gap from 99 to 1091 00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,839 2020 they were all pretty similar so he 1092 00:49:13,839 --> 00:49:15,280 didn't really worry about including 1093 00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:17,359 those there was no statistical 1094 00:49:17,359 --> 00:49:18,559 difference between 1095 00:49:18,559 --> 00:49:19,920 in 2020. 1096 00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:22,640 >> So this kind of shows that it's not 1097 00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:24,400 actually a data gap. You have data 1098 00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:26,319 >> the data is there. It's not a data gap 1099 00:49:26,319 --> 00:49:28,720 and it's not a difference. So it's even 1100 00:49:28,720 --> 00:49:32,880 from 97 to 0.2 there really wasn't a 1101 00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:34,400 huge difference. 1102 00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:38,240 >> So like when we first put in the breach, 1103 00:49:38,240 --> 00:49:39,680 wouldn't you think there would be a 1104 00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:41,440 statistical difference or some or 1105 00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,839 significant difference with that huge 1106 00:49:43,839 --> 00:49:46,000 flux from the north or the south during 1107 00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:48,079 that time period? So whether you'd see 1108 00:49:48,079 --> 00:49:49,839 it delayed even with the deep brain 1109 00:49:49,839 --> 00:49:50,079 layer, 1110 00:49:50,079 --> 00:49:52,240 >> we didn't see it. It wasn't observed in 1111 00:49:52,240 --> 00:49:55,200 that time frame in 2016 and the working 1112 00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:58,480 theory or hypothesis the idea is we had 1113 00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,960 an established brine layer at that time 1114 00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,920 but took a while to 1115 00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:06,880 which would have held more nutrients 1116 00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:08,880 during that time frame because it was 1117 00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:11,599 more similar to more water. And that 1118 00:50:11,599 --> 00:50:14,160 slow release of that deep right layer 1119 00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,079 erosion 1120 00:50:16,079 --> 00:50:19,520 could have offset that W because by the 1121 00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:22,800 time we had that huge what had different 1122 00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:26,240 south to north and as that 1123 00:50:26,240 --> 00:50:27,839 declined and then we started getting 1124 00:50:27,839 --> 00:50:30,240 north to south flow that's about the 1125 00:50:30,240 --> 00:50:33,359 same time frame that 1126 00:50:33,359 --> 00:50:34,800 you know we've been trying to look a 1127 00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:36,480 little bit at this oursel taking a 1128 00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,359 slightly different approach using USGS 1129 00:50:39,359 --> 00:50:40,800 total nitrogen 1130 00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:43,280 And if you look at the 10-year period 1131 00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:45,599 before that breach was opened in 2016 1132 00:50:45,599 --> 00:50:47,920 and just correlate total nitrogen versus 1133 00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:49,440 like elevation because it's more 1134 00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,200 conservative nutrient is kind of like 1135 00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:54,400 salt. Um and then do the same for the 1136 00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,119 period 2017 to 2023 when they stop 1137 00:50:57,119 --> 00:51:00,000 taking water samples. 1138 00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:03,680 um the two lines are in parallel but bit 1139 00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:05,200 lower from each other and the difference 1140 00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:09,760 is that which correlates with that but I 1141 00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:11,359 think it would be worth taking a deeper 1142 00:51:11,359 --> 00:51:13,359 dive and potentially trying to do what 1143 00:51:13,359 --> 00:51:17,119 was done with salt and maybe use 1144 00:51:17,119 --> 00:51:19,280 volutric means and try to estimate a 1145 00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:22,960 total nitrogen mass in itself and see if 1146 00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,280 that clears up some variation in that 1147 00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:27,040 regression line. Maybe it makes it even 1148 00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:32,230 more clear. 1149 00:51:32,240 --> 00:51:34,000 Just another thing on your plate. 1150 00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:37,280 >> I did it. I already did. 1151 00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:38,480 >> That's kind of why we started this 1152 00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:40,000 consultation. 1153 00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:46,400 >> We needed people with more capacity and like better expertise 1154 00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,359 in this particular field. Right. 1155 00:51:49,359 --> 00:51:50,079 >> Question online. 1156 00:51:50,079 --> 00:51:54,870 >> Yeah. Question. 1157 00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:57,839 The rapid January chlorophyll declines 1158 00:51:57,839 --> 00:51:59,440 tend to follow relatively high 1159 00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:09,510 chlorophyll in November, December. 1160 00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:10,720 » I mean, 1161 00:52:10,720 --> 00:52:13,440 >> does that make sense what I'm asking? 1162 00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:15,200 >> It seems like you've got a high 1163 00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:17,839 chlorophyll in the the fall months 1164 00:52:17,839 --> 00:52:20,559 preceding those big drops in January. 1165 00:52:20,559 --> 00:52:21,920 And so I'm just wondering if like 1166 00:52:21,920 --> 00:52:24,480 nitrogen's acting as a limiting uh 1167 00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,000 nutrient 1168 00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:28,160 and you're seeing that in that time 1169 00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:29,359 series data. 1170 00:52:29,359 --> 00:52:31,040 >> Yeah. And that's and that's what we're 1171 00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:34,240 wondering is if if that's what the 1172 00:52:34,240 --> 00:52:35,760 response is is that the population 1173 00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:37,680 reaches a maximum. There's no more 1174 00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:41,839 available nitrogen. They die off. Uh 1175 00:52:41,839 --> 00:52:45,200 they decay with within half a week. So 1176 00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:47,520 you know two three days that nitrogen 1177 00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,599 gets cycled. they're able to pick that 1178 00:52:49,599 --> 00:52:51,359 back up with, you know, the few that 1179 00:52:51,359 --> 00:52:54,559 aren't yet pick that up and it bloom 1180 00:52:54,559 --> 00:52:57,839 again. Um, that's kind of the working 1181 00:52:57,839 --> 00:52:59,599 idea. That's the question that we're 1182 00:52:59,599 --> 00:53:00,640 trying to ask. 1183 00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:01,839 >> Yeah. Okay. 1184 00:53:01,839 --> 00:53:04,720 >> Because the fear is 1185 00:53:04,720 --> 00:53:07,839 what if that drop shifts, right? Because 1186 00:53:07,839 --> 00:53:11,200 if that drop shifts out of 1187 00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,760 January when we don't expect to have 1188 00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:17,440 brine shrimp and shifts maybe more to 1189 00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:20,559 February, March, we are seeing more and 1190 00:53:20,559 --> 00:53:23,760 more brine shrimp hatch in these warmer 1191 00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:28,240 spring months. Um, 1192 00:53:28,240 --> 00:53:30,000 >> yeah. Are we going to lose the food 1193 00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,240 source temporarily for the shrimp and 1194 00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:33,599 then they're going to hatch and we're 1195 00:53:33,599 --> 00:53:36,160 going to potentially mismatch that green 1196 00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:39,599 up and potentially lose a crop of brine 1197 00:53:39,599 --> 00:53:42,640 shrimp? It would be food for birds and 1198 00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:44,480 also impact the industry. 1199 00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:46,240 >> Yeah. Okay. Thanks. 1200 00:53:46,240 --> 00:53:50,710 >> Y 1201 00:53:50,720 --> 00:53:52,720 uh this presentation is asking more 1202 00:53:52,720 --> 00:53:54,240 questions than it answers. Let's go with 1203 00:53:54,240 --> 00:53:57,920 that. Another little caveat for us. So 1204 00:53:57,920 --> 00:54:01,200 um based on all of this running things 1205 00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:02,960 through the model. So this is the nice 1206 00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:04,720 part of where we have multiple lab 1207 00:54:04,720 --> 00:54:07,520 experiments. We have kind of what we 1208 00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:09,680 expect things to do based on lab 1209 00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,559 experiments versus observed data. We run 1210 00:54:12,559 --> 00:54:14,880 into this. If you just look at the 1211 00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:18,720 nitrogen decline and assign it a 6% loss 1212 00:54:18,720 --> 00:54:21,599 and we run that out for for a couple of 1213 00:54:21,599 --> 00:54:24,960 years, we do expect to see some very 1214 00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:29,200 large impacts on the shrimp numbers and 1215 00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:32,000 the brinefly larvae numbers where th 1216 00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:33,359 those populations are going to be 1217 00:54:33,359 --> 00:54:36,240 suppressed. the unique response to brine 1218 00:54:36,240 --> 00:54:37,680 shrimp and kind of this little caveat 1219 00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:40,400 about the uh the harvest industry and 1220 00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:42,720 the cysts. When brine shrimp are 1221 00:54:42,720 --> 00:54:44,079 stressed, they're more likely just to 1222 00:54:44,079 --> 00:54:47,040 produce cits. That's what that shows is 1223 00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,640 that that response of we observe a 1224 00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:53,200 little bit more maybe some more cyst 1225 00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:56,400 production in times of stress and that 1226 00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:59,200 just gets amplified when you add in both 1227 00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,280 the nitrogen decline and a salinity 1228 00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:04,480 increase. So, as we continue to go down 1229 00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:09,440 in lake elevation and we potentially 1230 00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,319 start increasing our salinity, right, we 1231 00:55:12,319 --> 00:55:14,640 run into that issue. It just shows that 1232 00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:18,160 it's going to be exacerbated with both 1233 00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:20,160 effects. So, 1234 00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:22,480 >> well, um, Gary's model doesn't consider 1235 00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:25,680 phosphorus, right? 1236 00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:26,720 I think that's what he said. 1237 00:55:26,720 --> 00:55:32,150 >> I think Yeah, I don't think so. 1238 00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,880 And then just the basic wrap-ups of this 1239 00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:38,240 that the systems are linked. They both 1240 00:55:38,240 --> 00:55:41,440 have a huge impact on one another 1241 00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:44,720 whether that's through salinity. 1242 00:55:44,720 --> 00:55:46,240 It looks like there's some kind of 1243 00:55:46,240 --> 00:55:48,319 nutrient connection 1244 00:55:48,319 --> 00:55:50,720 and we should have differential impacts. 1245 00:55:50,720 --> 00:55:51,839 But we're definitely going to see 1246 00:55:51,839 --> 00:55:54,640 negative impacts on the shrimp and the 1247 00:55:54,640 --> 00:55:56,400 larvae. eventually those are going to 1248 00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:58,880 accumulate to where 1249 00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:02,798 you know we may 1250 00:56:02,808 --> 00:56:02,960 [laughter] 1251 00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:05,280 >> so I just wanted to make a comment here 1252 00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:07,599 because I made that comment Gary as well 1253 00:56:07,599 --> 00:56:09,760 is the differential impacts are 1254 00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:10,480 temporary 1255 00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:11,040 >> temporary 1256 00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,440 >> because as your nitrogen declines 1257 00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:15,839 ultimately you get an oligotropic system 1258 00:56:15,839 --> 00:56:17,359 and you won't have a lot of brine shrimp 1259 00:56:17,359 --> 00:56:19,119 and you won't have a lot of cyst 1260 00:56:19,119 --> 00:56:21,280 >> correct 1261 00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:24,160 so it doesn't matter that your cyst for 1262 00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:27,119 shrimp freezes when you receive 1263 00:56:27,119 --> 00:56:30,240 >> certainly no benefit to keep this. There 1264 00:56:30,240 --> 00:56:32,880 is a benefit. It's temporary. is temp 1265 00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:34,559 and it's and it should serve as a 1266 00:56:34,559 --> 00:56:37,910 warning sign 1267 00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:40,480 and then dairy included just a little 1268 00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:42,480 commercial. It's not nice to mother 1269 00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:46,950 nature. 1270 00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:51,270 I think we can try it. [laughter] 1271 00:56:51,280 --> 00:56:52,400 » No sound. 1272 00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:53,680 >> Sound is important. 1273 00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:55,280 >> Yeah. 1274 00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:58,000 I'm just excited that Gary's progressed 1275 00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:05,349 beyond the comic sands font to videos. 1276 00:57:05,359 --> 00:57:07,200 » That's pretty much all I had. 1277 00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,200 >> Still got that. 1278 00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:15,200 >> So, so I guess to summarize is we're observing a decline in nitrogen 1279 00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:17,520 concentrations in the south arm. We're 1280 00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:20,160 seeing a response um from that in the 1281 00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:21,680 phytolanton. 1282 00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,799 we're seeing then and then we're seeing 1283 00:57:24,799 --> 00:57:27,760 what the model would 1284 00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:29,920 predict would happen with a decline in 1285 00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:31,760 nitrogen is where we would see an 1286 00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:34,480 increase in brine shrimp cysts initially 1287 00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:36,319 because the brine shrimp are are 1288 00:57:36,319 --> 00:57:37,680 stressed 1289 00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:40,319 >> um but then we would see a decline on 1290 00:57:40,319 --> 00:57:43,119 the brine shrimp and then also with 1291 00:57:43,119 --> 00:57:45,520 brine flies 1292 00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:47,599 >> when that's the concern 1293 00:57:47,599 --> 00:57:48,319 >> that's the concern 1294 00:57:48,319 --> 00:57:57,349 >> is that if if this trend of 1295 00:57:57,359 --> 00:58:01,359 what does that mean? and and the model 1296 00:58:01,359 --> 00:58:05,200 doesn't it's not fit. Um and so that's 1297 00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:13,030 where we want to why 1298 00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:16,160 you know it appears that the BM while it 1299 00:58:16,160 --> 00:58:18,480 has cut off the north arm flow and the 1300 00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:21,359 salt load as as intended and it's 1301 00:58:21,359 --> 00:58:23,760 functioning very well for from slimy 1302 00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:26,240 standpoint. It appears there might be an 1303 00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:29,040 unintended consequence is that it's also 1304 00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:31,839 blocking off the nitrogen level that's 1305 00:58:31,839 --> 00:58:44,150 al 1306 00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,400 nitty-gritty of nutrient. 1307 00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:48,240 Um, 1308 00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:52,559 and I was excited about this and then I 1309 00:58:52,559 --> 00:58:54,640 quickly got overwhelmed. 1310 00:58:54,640 --> 00:58:56,960 So bear with me. I'm going to show you a 1311 00:58:56,960 --> 00:59:00,319 lot of data and please jump in as we go. 1312 00:59:00,319 --> 00:59:04,000 Ask questions, ask for clarification. Um 1313 00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,480 because it's a lot to kind of introduce 1314 00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:09,680 this new set of constituents to what 1315 00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:13,440 we're already thinking about salt. So 1316 00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:15,839 as uh Kyle sort of outlined, um 1317 00:59:15,839 --> 00:59:17,599 nutrients are kind of the foundation of 1318 00:59:17,599 --> 00:59:19,680 the ecosystem in the south, leaving our 1319 00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:22,559 brine shrimp and brine fly food webs. 1320 00:59:22,559 --> 00:59:26,160 And nutrients are cycle differently than 1321 00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:28,640 salts. They're biologically active. They 1322 00:59:28,640 --> 00:59:30,720 are chemically reactive and they also 1323 00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:32,400 respond to hydrarology like salt does. 1324 00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:35,920 So there's many many processes have that 1325 00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:38,000 would affect a nitric nitrogen or a 1326 00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,079 phosphorus concentration at any time. So 1327 00:59:40,079 --> 00:59:41,359 I think it's important to keep this 1328 00:59:41,359 --> 00:59:43,760 complexity in mind and also keep in mind 1329 00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:45,359 there's a lot that we don't understand 1330 00:59:45,359 --> 00:59:47,200 about these cycling processes that are 1331 00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:51,040 actively uh you know always actively. 1332 00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:53,200 And I wanted to just give this group a 1333 00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:55,119 kind of a just a overview of the 1334 00:59:55,119 --> 00:59:57,440 nutrient monitoring program that we run 1335 00:59:57,440 --> 00:59:59,040 in collaboration with the crate 1336 00:59:59,040 --> 01:00:01,359 decreases program. So we collect or 1337 01:00:01,359 --> 01:00:03,040 produce lab collects water samples 1338 01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,040 monthly at four sites in the south farm. 1339 01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:06,799 This is also these are also the same 1340 01:00:06,799 --> 01:00:08,480 samples where we measure that we measure 1341 01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:11,760 salinity from. Um, we also monitor the 1342 01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:13,280 nutrient inflows coming in from our 1343 01:00:13,280 --> 01:00:14,960 major service water inflows on the bear, 1344 01:00:14,960 --> 01:00:16,720 the weaver, the farmington bay outflow 1345 01:00:16,720 --> 01:00:19,280 and aten drain and also monitor the 1346 01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:21,680 exchange at the causeway breaches at the 1347 01:00:21,680 --> 01:00:23,440 new breach and at lakeside. So you have 1348 01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:25,280 some idea of the data set we're working 1349 01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:28,640 with these data go back up about 2010 1350 01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:32,480 for inflows and for the south arm uh 1351 01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:35,359 monitoring and for nutrients there's 1352 01:00:35,359 --> 01:00:37,359 many to consider. It's not just like for 1353 01:00:37,359 --> 01:00:39,280 salinity we have one for nutrients we 1354 01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:41,280 have many for nitrogen we're looking at 1355 01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:42,960 both total and dissolved forms of 1356 01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:45,040 nitrogen including inorganic forms of 1357 01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:46,960 ammonia nitrate and nitrite and for 1358 01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:49,359 phosphorus we deal with total which is a 1359 01:00:49,359 --> 01:00:51,440 raw form dissolves phosphorus and 1360 01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:54,319 phosphate and so just to give you kind 1361 01:00:54,319 --> 01:00:56,240 of an idea orient you to the kind of 1362 01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:58,079 ranges of concentrations you see in the 1363 01:00:58,079 --> 01:01:00,319 cell farm on the left I plotted total 1364 01:01:00,319 --> 01:01:02,400 dissolved nitrogen from 2010 to present 1365 01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:03,680 on the right is total dissolved 1366 01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:06,079 phosphorus just to give you kind 1367 01:01:06,079 --> 01:01:08,079 ballpark for the upper brine. Those are 1368 01:01:08,079 --> 01:01:09,680 shown in kind of the light blue, these 1369 01:01:09,680 --> 01:01:12,000 colors are um color coded by depth. So 1370 01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:13,839 for the light bluish colors, that's 1371 01:01:13,839 --> 01:01:15,680 representative of our upper brine layer 1372 01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:17,839 concentration. And then these darker 1373 01:01:17,839 --> 01:01:20,400 purples are um indicative of when we 1374 01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:22,400 have a deep brine layer present. And 1375 01:01:22,400 --> 01:01:23,920 it's really important to keep this in 1376 01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:26,160 mind. So when we have a deep rind layer 1377 01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:28,559 presence present, uh nutrients tend to 1378 01:01:28,559 --> 01:01:30,160 be what we I guess we could say 1379 01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:35,520 sequestered in that layer. they're much higher concentrations and along 1380 01:01:35,520 --> 01:01:38,319 with that we see decreases decreased 1381 01:01:38,319 --> 01:01:40,079 concentrations in the upper brine layer. 1382 01:01:40,079 --> 01:01:42,160 So when the deep brine layer is present 1383 01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:45,200 what's what's um available to the biota 1384 01:01:45,200 --> 01:01:46,480 in the upper brine layer that 1385 01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:50,079 concentration goes down. So that's a kind of an important feature 1386 01:01:50,079 --> 01:01:51,599 that I think is important to keep in 1387 01:01:51,599 --> 01:01:55,119 mind um because the concentrations we've 1388 01:01:55,119 --> 01:01:57,200 observed recently in terms of nitrogen 1389 01:01:57,200 --> 01:01:59,040 are not unique. We've observed these in 1390 01:01:59,040 --> 01:02:04,150 the especially when we're deep in there 1391 01:02:04,160 --> 01:02:06,079 and just to give you I don't you don't 1392 01:02:06,079 --> 01:02:08,319 need to need to go into a lot of this 1393 01:02:08,319 --> 01:02:09,760 but to just show you kind of the 1394 01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:12,079 magnitude of the data reflecting all 1395 01:02:12,079 --> 01:02:13,760 these different species and it's quite 1396 01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:15,440 complex and when we think about what's 1397 01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:17,280 being taken up by phytolankton it's 1398 01:02:17,280 --> 01:02:19,440 really these inorganic species of 1399 01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:21,520 nutrients ammonia nitrate nitrite and 1400 01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:23,440 phosphate so this is what's most 1401 01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:25,760 bioavailable also what's most difficult 1402 01:02:25,760 --> 01:02:27,599 to measure many of these are below the 1403 01:02:27,599 --> 01:02:29,200 detection limit often because they're 1404 01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:31,520 being taken up actively. Um, but just to 1405 01:02:31,520 --> 01:02:33,359 keep in mind what a lot of the analyses 1406 01:02:33,359 --> 01:02:36,319 we do for looking at nutrients are 1407 01:02:36,319 --> 01:02:38,319 really focused on these total forms and 1408 01:02:38,319 --> 01:02:40,559 in this case the subsequent analyses I 1409 01:02:40,559 --> 01:02:41,920 will show you will focus on total 1410 01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:44,960 dissolved nitrogen and nitrogen is 1411 01:02:44,960 --> 01:02:46,799 thought to be the limiting nutrient in 1412 01:02:46,799 --> 01:02:49,440 the south arm. um that's based on I 1413 01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:51,599 think bioassides from the 70s probably 1414 01:02:51,599 --> 01:02:54,160 other studies studies as well but to my 1415 01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:56,319 knowledge there hasn't been kind of a 1416 01:02:56,319 --> 01:02:58,559 recent look at you know nutrient 1417 01:02:58,559 --> 01:03:00,880 limitation 1418 01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:02,240 for for the purposes of this analysis 1419 01:03:02,240 --> 01:03:05,040 we'll be focusing on total wellness um 1420 01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,359 and just to give you some context uh 1421 01:03:07,359 --> 01:03:09,599 Hannah Min in our office did an analysis 1422 01:03:09,599 --> 01:03:11,359 of kind of the nutrient mass balance for 1423 01:03:11,359 --> 01:03:13,440 the south farm this plot is showing 1424 01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:15,440 sources of nutrients to the south farm 1425 01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:17,359 so where is the cell farm getting all of 1426 01:03:17,359 --> 01:03:19,200 its nitrogen and the phosphorus from so 1427 01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:21,599 values above zero are indicative of 1428 01:03:21,599 --> 01:03:23,599 what's coming into the lake so nutrient 1429 01:03:23,599 --> 01:03:25,760 imports those are from our and we 1430 01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:28,319 considered major surface water inflow so 1431 01:03:28,319 --> 01:03:31,359 we liberation bay and then also what's 1432 01:03:31,359 --> 01:03:33,039 coming in from the new breach so south 1433 01:03:33,039 --> 01:03:36,880 to north flow that's shown in purple 1434 01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:39,280 >> can I ask a quick question about total 1435 01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:41,200 dissolved nitrogen so that's including 1436 01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:45,119 ammonia nitrites and 1437 01:03:45,119 --> 01:03:47,440 >> all three 1438 01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:50,160 Yep. So in this plot uh what's what I 1439 01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:52,160 want us to focus on is the period 2017 1440 01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:54,079 to 2021. So this would be the period 1441 01:03:54,079 --> 01:03:56,160 when the new breach was open um for 1442 01:03:56,160 --> 01:03:57,760 about five years when we did this mass 1443 01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:00,160 balance and during this time the 1444 01:04:00,160 --> 01:04:01,839 greatest source of nutrients to the 1445 01:04:01,839 --> 01:04:03,760 south arm was the new breach and that 1446 01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:06,240 flow that's coming from south and these 1447 01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:08,240 numbers at the top of these kind of bar 1448 01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:10,559 plots show the fraction of input 1449 01:04:10,559 --> 01:04:12,880 nitrogen coming in. So for example in 1450 01:04:12,880 --> 01:04:16,799 2020 and 2021 we estimate 62% of the 1451 01:04:16,799 --> 01:04:18,480 dissolved nitrogen coming into the south 1452 01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:20,960 arm was from the new breach north to 1453 01:04:20,960 --> 01:04:23,119 south flow. So it's a significant source 1454 01:04:23,119 --> 01:04:26,400 of nitrogen to the south arm in addition 1455 01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:28,880 to the um kind of the sum of all water 1456 01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:30,400 flows 1457 01:04:30,400 --> 01:04:32,559 and during this time we saw a net gain 1458 01:04:32,559 --> 01:04:34,720 in nitrogen mass. If we consider these 1459 01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:37,920 inflows and outputs we were seeing um 1460 01:04:37,920 --> 01:04:41,520 net during that time 1461 01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:43,839 here is a volume weighted develop 1462 01:04:43,839 --> 01:04:45,520 nitrogen concentration. So this is 1463 01:04:45,520 --> 01:04:47,119 considering the full water column and 1464 01:04:47,119 --> 01:04:48,960 this is for those of you familiar with 1465 01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:51,200 how the methodology we developed for 1466 01:04:51,200 --> 01:04:53,359 salinity by applied the same method to 1467 01:04:53,359 --> 01:04:55,440 our total nitrogen concentration. So 1468 01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:58,559 this is shown from 2010 to present and 1469 01:04:58,559 --> 01:05:01,839 these lines um denote when the burn was 1470 01:05:01,839 --> 01:05:04,640 modified in July 2022 and then in July 1471 01:05:04,640 --> 01:05:07,760 or sorry February 2023. And here is kind 1472 01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:09,520 of the um the concentrations we're 1473 01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:11,680 seeing now. One thing to really keep in 1474 01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:14,000 mind is that um it's much more variable. 1475 01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:16,079 Nutrients are harder to measure. They're 1476 01:05:16,079 --> 01:05:18,960 more u labile. They're more active. So 1477 01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:20,960 there they really just are more variable 1478 01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:23,280 constituent in the system. It's not as 1479 01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:26,559 clean as solidity data. I 1480 01:05:26,559 --> 01:05:28,720 >> Good question. So, are you filtering out 1481 01:05:28,720 --> 01:05:31,280 the cells before you determine the 1482 01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:33,760 nitrogen or does it include the cellular 1483 01:05:33,760 --> 01:05:34,960 nitrogen? 1484 01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:37,039 >> So, are does all nitrogen are filtered 1485 01:05:37,039 --> 01:05:38,960 at 045 1486 01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:41,039 >> 45? Okay. So, some microbes are going to 1487 01:05:41,039 --> 01:05:44,720 get through, but that's pretty okay. 1488 01:05:44,720 --> 01:05:46,240 >> You're filtering out algae, but maybe 1489 01:05:46,240 --> 01:05:49,280 nuts and cyan. 1490 01:05:49,280 --> 01:05:52,160 Um and I did a just a statistical 1491 01:05:52,160 --> 01:05:54,000 comparison between the period before the 1492 01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:56,240 book was modified and after trying to 1493 01:05:56,240 --> 01:05:58,400 get um bracketing the same number of 1494 01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:00,319 samples on each side and there is a 1495 01:06:00,319 --> 01:06:02,160 statistically lower concentration we're 1496 01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:04,160 observing now around four milligrams per 1497 01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:06,240 liter relative to the time immediately 1498 01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:08,559 before modification from about 2020 to 1499 01:06:08,559 --> 01:06:10,880 2022. However, it's important to keep in 1500 01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:12,720 mind that these concentrations you see 1501 01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:14,319 now are not unique. they had been 1502 01:06:14,319 --> 01:06:17,039 observed previously and even kind of in 1503 01:06:17,039 --> 01:06:20,160 2011 2012 uh concentrations were even 1504 01:06:20,160 --> 01:06:22,240 lower. 1505 01:06:22,240 --> 01:06:24,480 If we look at the mass, uh it's no 1506 01:06:24,480 --> 01:06:25,760 longer looking at concentration, we're 1507 01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:27,920 looking at mass. The order of mass we 1508 01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:30,000 see total of nitrogen is on the order of 1509 01:06:30,000 --> 01:06:36,880 30 to 35,000 tons of nitrogen. Um and we do see, you know, pretty consistent 1510 01:06:36,880 --> 01:06:39,520 um stable mass prior to worm 1511 01:06:39,520 --> 01:06:41,599 modification. And I believe we did a 1512 01:06:41,599 --> 01:06:43,200 trend analysis as part of Hannah's 1513 01:06:43,200 --> 01:06:44,880 analysis and there was no statistically 1514 01:06:44,880 --> 01:06:48,160 significant trend up to 2021. 1515 01:06:48,160 --> 01:06:51,359 Um, if I compare the masses after burn 1516 01:06:51,359 --> 01:06:53,039 modification to before burn 1517 01:06:53,039 --> 01:06:54,240 modification, we're seeing a 1518 01:06:54,240 --> 01:06:55,920 statistically significant decrease of 1519 01:06:55,920 --> 01:06:59,200 around 3,000 tons. So, the nitrogen mass 1520 01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:01,760 appears to be going down in the south 1521 01:07:01,760 --> 01:07:03,520 arm. All right. So, that was really 1522 01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:06,240 focused on South Farm data. 1523 01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:08,240 And now I'm going to focus on what we 1524 01:07:08,240 --> 01:07:10,960 measure at the brereech. So, um, Andy 1525 01:07:10,960 --> 01:07:13,520 measures discharge monthly. Then we 1526 01:07:13,520 --> 01:07:15,039 collect water samples monthly through 1527 01:07:15,039 --> 01:07:16,720 the runoff season and every other month 1528 01:07:16,720 --> 01:07:19,119 during non-runoff season. So we have a 1529 01:07:19,119 --> 01:07:21,920 nice data set to look at clear. Um and 1530 01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:23,440 huge thanks to Scott for putting these 1531 01:07:23,440 --> 01:07:26,160 fluxes together for the breach. And um 1532 01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:29,760 so here we're looking at total nitrogen 1533 01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:32,400 for south to north flows in green and 1534 01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:34,559 then north to south. So first thing the 1535 01:07:34,559 --> 01:07:37,520 really the takehome here is that the 1536 01:07:37,520 --> 01:07:39,520 north to south concentrations of total 1537 01:07:39,520 --> 01:07:41,680 dissolve nitrogen are higher. on average 1538 01:07:41,680 --> 01:07:43,440 they're around seven milligram per liter 1539 01:07:43,440 --> 01:07:45,039 whereas our south to north is around 1540 01:07:45,039 --> 01:07:48,160 four milligram per liter and for from 1541 01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:52,160 some of Scott's um exploration of ratios 1542 01:07:52,160 --> 01:07:54,640 of nitrogen to salt and ratios of 1543 01:07:54,640 --> 01:07:58,160 nitrogen to um other nutrient species it 1544 01:07:58,160 --> 01:08:00,480 appears that this the concentrations in 1545 01:08:00,480 --> 01:08:03,119 the north arm are not a function of 1546 01:08:03,119 --> 01:08:05,359 purely of a vapo concentration if they 1547 01:08:05,359 --> 01:08:07,359 if it were just a vapo concentration 1548 01:08:07,359 --> 01:08:08,799 occurring in the north arm we'd expect 1549 01:08:08,799 --> 01:08:10,720 these total dissolved nitro concent 1550 01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:12,559 concentrations to be higher. So there 1551 01:08:12,559 --> 01:08:14,240 appears to be some evidence that 1552 01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:16,159 nitrogen is being sequestered in the 1553 01:08:16,159 --> 01:08:18,400 north arm even though it might be um 1554 01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:21,040 fixed. It's it appears that there's some 1555 01:08:21,040 --> 01:08:22,319 amount of nitrogen being fixed in the 1556 01:08:22,319 --> 01:08:24,480 north. Bottom line is that when we put 1557 01:08:24,480 --> 01:08:25,759 nitrogen in the north arm, we're not 1558 01:08:25,759 --> 01:08:27,440 always getting it all back. So just 1559 01:08:27,440 --> 01:08:28,560 important to keep that in mind. And 1560 01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:30,560 that's really illustrated by the flux 1561 01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:32,960 rates. So here now we're looking at flux 1562 01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:35,600 of total nitrogen in tons per day at the 1563 01:08:35,600 --> 01:08:37,759 breach for south to north in green again 1564 01:08:37,759 --> 01:08:41,279 and north to south in red. And for the 1565 01:08:41,279 --> 01:08:43,440 period prior to burm occupation right 1566 01:08:43,440 --> 01:08:46,239 about about right about here I'll just 1567 01:08:46,239 --> 01:08:49,679 there we really do tend to see um and 1568 01:08:49,679 --> 01:08:51,199 these are discrete measurements so we're 1569 01:08:51,199 --> 01:08:53,040 not interpolating anything in between 1570 01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:54,799 the periods where we have measurements 1571 01:08:54,799 --> 01:08:57,440 it it appears that we do have a net 1572 01:08:57,440 --> 01:09:00,080 export from south to north of nutrients 1573 01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:02,960 most of the time even without burn 1574 01:09:02,960 --> 01:09:04,560 modification and certainly after the 1575 01:09:04,560 --> 01:09:07,440 burm was modified we saw fluxes from 1576 01:09:07,440 --> 01:09:09,520 coming in from the north they went to 1577 01:09:09,520 --> 01:09:11,359 zero you might expect just cut off the 1578 01:09:11,359 --> 01:09:13,279 discharge. And so there's been a huge 1579 01:09:13,279 --> 01:09:15,440 amount of export happening from south to 1580 01:09:15,440 --> 01:09:17,600 north postbification. 1581 01:09:17,600 --> 01:09:19,279 Um 1582 01:09:19,279 --> 01:09:23,040 and Scott estimates that 1583 01:09:23,040 --> 01:09:25,359 we would be getting uh that's about a 1584 01:09:25,359 --> 01:09:28,319 2,000 ton per year reduction in what 1585 01:09:28,319 --> 01:09:31,440 we're getting from. 1586 01:09:31,440 --> 01:09:32,719 We look at that a slightly different 1587 01:09:32,719 --> 01:09:34,159 way. I just kind of summarize the 1588 01:09:34,159 --> 01:09:36,719 distributions of those calculations. um 1589 01:09:36,719 --> 01:09:39,679 for 12 nitrogen. This is a net nutrient 1590 01:09:39,679 --> 01:09:41,600 flux in tons per day with a positive 1591 01:09:41,600 --> 01:09:44,560 value being an export. So pre-burner is 1592 01:09:44,560 --> 01:09:47,199 in this kind of bluish color and postbm 1593 01:09:47,199 --> 01:09:49,679 is in this salmon color. So we're just 1594 01:09:49,679 --> 01:09:51,759 we have more export as you might expect 1595 01:09:51,759 --> 01:09:53,199 happening right now after burn 1596 01:09:53,199 --> 01:09:57,120 application. And if we compare this and 1597 01:09:57,120 --> 01:09:58,719 I just want to highlight this is these 1598 01:09:58,719 --> 01:10:00,640 are using distributions median 1599 01:10:00,640 --> 01:10:02,239 distributions because the precision of 1600 01:10:02,239 --> 01:10:04,719 these measurements is so much lower. So 1601 01:10:04,719 --> 01:10:06,719 the uncertainty in this is is greater. 1602 01:10:06,719 --> 01:10:09,440 Okay. But um comparing these two median 1603 01:10:09,440 --> 01:10:12,080 values in response to burn modification 1604 01:10:12,080 --> 01:10:14,239 we estimate about a 1,200 ton per year 1605 01:10:14,239 --> 01:10:17,280 reduction. And and what we we're 1606 01:10:17,280 --> 01:10:19,920 basically we're sending 1,200 tons per 1607 01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:22,000 year more to the south arm now than we 1608 01:10:22,000 --> 01:10:24,880 were pre modification. And per year that 1609 01:10:24,880 --> 01:10:26,480 would result in a total dissolve 1610 01:10:26,480 --> 01:10:28,560 nitrogen decrease of an estimated an 1611 01:10:28,560 --> 01:10:32,480 estimated.14 to 21 million 1612 01:10:32,480 --> 01:10:34,640 in the south farm. That's just assuming 1613 01:10:34,640 --> 01:10:36,800 some volume you know that we've observed 1614 01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:38,560 recently. 1615 01:10:38,560 --> 01:10:41,120 So gives you some idea of the magnitude 1616 01:10:41,120 --> 01:10:42,800 of concentration change that might have 1617 01:10:42,800 --> 01:10:44,960 happened per year in response to what 1618 01:10:44,960 --> 01:10:46,719 happened at the breach specifically the 1619 01:10:46,719 --> 01:10:48,320 mass flux changes that happened at the 1620 01:10:48,320 --> 01:10:51,830 breach specifically. 1621 01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:55,120 Um, another way to look at this, which 1622 01:10:55,120 --> 01:10:56,560 was suggested in one of the tag 1623 01:10:56,560 --> 01:10:59,920 meetings, is that what would happen if 1624 01:10:59,920 --> 01:11:02,000 we were to dial in the new breach and 1625 01:11:02,000 --> 01:11:05,120 say we get zero salt flux at happening 1626 01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:07,440 at the brereech, what would that do to 1627 01:11:07,440 --> 01:11:10,000 nitrogen or plastics flux? And so I did 1628 01:11:10,000 --> 01:11:12,159 this calculation um and I'm happy to go 1629 01:11:12,159 --> 01:11:13,520 through the details if anyone is 1630 01:11:13,520 --> 01:11:15,840 interested but I assume or not. But the 1631 01:11:15,840 --> 01:11:18,080 take-home message is that if we were to 1632 01:11:18,080 --> 01:11:20,000 arrange the breach so that we're getting 1633 01:11:20,000 --> 01:11:23,520 basically no and and net zero salt flux 1634 01:11:23,520 --> 01:11:26,400 exchange you get greater nitrogen uh 1635 01:11:26,400 --> 01:11:29,679 export pretty much all the time. 1636 01:11:29,679 --> 01:11:32,320 So there's it's just kind of seems to be 1637 01:11:32,320 --> 01:11:34,080 what's happening at the breach is that 1638 01:11:34,080 --> 01:11:37,199 we we export nitrogen. 1639 01:11:37,199 --> 01:11:39,520 It be interesting to look at not just 1640 01:11:39,520 --> 01:11:41,440 the export of nitrogen but also the 1641 01:11:41,440 --> 01:11:43,679 import to see if the balance is in it. 1642 01:11:43,679 --> 01:11:44,400 What the balance? 1643 01:11:44,400 --> 01:11:45,280 >> This is the net. 1644 01:11:45,280 --> 01:11:46,960 >> The net including the import. 1645 01:11:46,960 --> 01:11:47,440 >> Yes. 1646 01:11:47,440 --> 01:11:50,320 >> I mean import from other sources. No no 1647 01:11:50,320 --> 01:11:51,440 um from river. 1648 01:11:51,440 --> 01:11:52,719 >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. No, that's 1649 01:11:52,719 --> 01:11:54,320 very very important. So yeah, this is 1650 01:11:54,320 --> 01:11:57,360 just net at the reach. The imports from 1651 01:11:57,360 --> 01:11:59,360 the rivers are very important for kind 1652 01:11:59,360 --> 01:12:01,120 of tipping the balance to any kind of 1653 01:12:01,120 --> 01:12:04,239 net gain in 1654 01:12:04,239 --> 01:12:08,229 uh 1655 01:12:08,239 --> 01:12:10,000 I mean we can it's that's a quite an 1656 01:12:10,000 --> 01:12:14,400 intensive analysis but yeah 1657 01:12:14,400 --> 01:12:16,239 >> and then I had another question 1658 01:12:16,239 --> 01:12:17,840 Christine and I don't know what the 1659 01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:20,320 answer is but maybe should we be looking 1660 01:12:20,320 --> 01:12:22,719 at dissolved nitrogen total nitrogen or 1661 01:12:22,719 --> 01:12:24,719 both because when we look at dissolved 1662 01:12:24,719 --> 01:12:26,880 nitrogen there may be much more dynamics 1663 01:12:26,880 --> 01:12:29,199 going on and much more fluctuation when 1664 01:12:29,199 --> 01:12:31,280 we look at total nitrogen that may be a 1665 01:12:31,280 --> 01:12:32,719 little bit more stable. 1666 01:12:32,719 --> 01:12:33,120 >> Yeah. 1667 01:12:33,120 --> 01:12:34,400 >> I don't know. I don't know what the 1668 01:12:34,400 --> 01:12:36,400 answer is. I I think we might have to 1669 01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:37,040 look at both. 1670 01:12:37,040 --> 01:12:38,719 >> I agree. Yeah, I think No, that's 1671 01:12:38,719 --> 01:12:40,080 exactly right. And that's why I said, 1672 01:12:40,080 --> 01:12:41,760 hey, we're looking at kind of one piece 1673 01:12:41,760 --> 01:12:43,840 of this puzzle, keeping all the the 1674 01:12:43,840 --> 01:12:47,520 other options open in our minds, but we 1675 01:12:47,520 --> 01:12:49,280 have confidence in these total dissolved 1676 01:12:49,280 --> 01:12:51,280 nitrogen measurements. And honestly, the 1677 01:12:51,280 --> 01:12:52,640 total nitrogen measurements we're 1678 01:12:52,640 --> 01:12:54,560 getting now from Biological Lab are a 1679 01:12:54,560 --> 01:12:56,560 little troubling. They're just a little 1680 01:12:56,560 --> 01:12:58,880 bit um greater differences than we would 1681 01:12:58,880 --> 01:13:01,040 see at our national water quality USGS 1682 01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:03,360 lab. So for this analysis, we really 1683 01:13:03,360 --> 01:13:05,840 decided to go with what the constituent 1684 01:13:05,840 --> 01:13:08,400 we had a lot of confidence in that, but 1685 01:13:08,400 --> 01:13:10,320 I think we're going to as well, you 1686 01:13:10,320 --> 01:13:12,560 know, getting at the totals might be a 1687 01:13:12,560 --> 01:13:15,120 more complex 1688 01:13:15,120 --> 01:13:17,040 and and then the dissolution also kind 1689 01:13:17,040 --> 01:13:19,760 of gets us closer to 1690 01:13:19,760 --> 01:13:21,920 whereas the the raw and whole fraction 1691 01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:23,760 you're kind of dealing with particulates 1692 01:13:23,760 --> 01:13:26,159 that are available that 1693 01:13:26,159 --> 01:13:28,320 >> you've got really pretty good agreement 1694 01:13:28,320 --> 01:13:31,040 then between the National Quality Lab 1695 01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:33,040 Chess EDM 1696 01:13:33,040 --> 01:13:35,360 >> we're getting decent not great it is I 1697 01:13:35,360 --> 01:13:37,280 think chess college as a lab it's a 1698 01:13:37,280 --> 01:13:40,880 little bit lower if I recall um but but 1699 01:13:40,880 --> 01:13:43,280 it's certainly better than the total 1700 01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:45,600 >> okay so maybe it becomes more clear 1701 01:13:45,600 --> 01:13:47,199 might be some slight adjustment in this 1702 01:13:47,199 --> 01:13:50,000 calculation since one lab it's after the 1703 01:13:50,000 --> 01:13:50,640 other one's 1704 01:13:50,640 --> 01:13:52,320 >> correct and that is a confounding 1705 01:13:52,320 --> 01:13:53,840 variable in all of this which is why I 1706 01:13:53,840 --> 01:13:56,960 tried to keep the be clear about the 1707 01:13:56,960 --> 01:13:58,800 labs we're using because that is a 1708 01:13:58,800 --> 01:14:00,080 confounding variable 1709 01:14:00,080 --> 01:14:03,990 That's really interesting. 1710 01:14:04,000 --> 01:14:05,600 » Um, all right. So, I'll just kind of 1711 01:14:05,600 --> 01:14:08,400 wrap up this this set of analyses. We're 1712 01:14:08,400 --> 01:14:10,159 seeing a statistically significant 1713 01:14:10,159 --> 01:14:11,920 decrease in the total dissolved nitrogen 1714 01:14:11,920 --> 01:14:14,080 mass in the south arm after the BM was 1715 01:14:14,080 --> 01:14:16,880 modified. We're also seeing decreased 1716 01:14:16,880 --> 01:14:18,719 flux from north to south of the new 1717 01:14:18,719 --> 01:14:20,960 breach. So, and those estimates from 1718 01:14:20,960 --> 01:14:22,719 both of those changes seems to be in 1719 01:14:22,719 --> 01:14:24,480 pretty good agreement. The magnitude of 1720 01:14:24,480 --> 01:14:25,840 change seems to be in agreement from 1721 01:14:25,840 --> 01:14:29,910 those two independents. 1722 01:14:29,920 --> 01:14:33,360 Oh, right. Right. And then I did develop 1723 01:14:33,360 --> 01:14:35,679 is 1724 01:14:35,679 --> 01:14:38,159 dissolved nitrogen in the full water. 1725 01:14:38,159 --> 01:14:40,560 >> Um, and I again I don't know the utility 1726 01:14:40,560 --> 01:14:42,320 of this, but since it's been a helpful 1727 01:14:42,320 --> 01:14:43,840 framework for salinity, I thought I'd 1728 01:14:43,840 --> 01:14:46,080 just try it out. So, we have south arm 1729 01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:48,080 elevation on the y axis, volume weighted 1730 01:14:48,080 --> 01:14:50,719 total bulb nitrogen concentrations on 1731 01:14:50,719 --> 01:14:53,280 the x-axis. And this is the full water 1732 01:14:53,280 --> 01:14:54,880 column. So in periods where we have a 1733 01:14:54,880 --> 01:14:56,400 deep frying layer, this is not 1734 01:14:56,400 --> 01:14:57,920 representative of what's actually 1735 01:14:57,920 --> 01:15:00,560 available to the biota. Um this is just 1736 01:15:00,560 --> 01:15:01,920 an example of what this might look like. 1737 01:15:01,920 --> 01:15:03,280 Our most recent measurements are on 1738 01:15:03,280 --> 01:15:05,920 January 14th of this year and we were 1739 01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:07,760 getting about 3.9 million per liter 1740 01:15:07,760 --> 01:15:11,440 nitrogen 27,000 tons. I think it it is 1741 01:15:11,440 --> 01:15:13,520 interesting to um Okay. Right. And then 1742 01:15:13,520 --> 01:15:15,679 I wanted to show this is the blue dot 1743 01:15:15,679 --> 01:15:17,840 where we are. And if if we kind of just 1744 01:15:17,840 --> 01:15:19,120 look at the distribution of 1745 01:15:19,120 --> 01:15:20,880 concentrations where we've been kind of 1746 01:15:20,880 --> 01:15:23,360 middle of the road of where a previous 1747 01:15:23,360 --> 01:15:25,199 observation 1748 01:15:25,199 --> 01:15:26,960 in terms of mass we're kind of on this 1749 01:15:26,960 --> 01:15:30,000 lower end the kind of lines 1750 01:15:30,000 --> 01:15:31,840 perpendicular to our XMass lines. We're 1751 01:15:31,840 --> 01:15:35,199 kind of at the low lowish end of mass 1752 01:15:35,199 --> 01:15:38,080 and then certainly of elevation. I I 1753 01:15:38,080 --> 01:15:39,920 think it's important to actually look at 1754 01:15:39,920 --> 01:15:43,440 the upper grind layer uh in addition to 1755 01:15:43,440 --> 01:15:45,199 that. So this is representative of 1756 01:15:45,199 --> 01:15:48,640 what's you know available to the biota 1757 01:15:48,640 --> 01:15:49,920 to the phytolankton and then 1758 01:15:49,920 --> 01:15:52,480 subsequently the branch. So if we just 1759 01:15:52,480 --> 01:15:54,640 consider upper brine layer volume 1760 01:15:54,640 --> 01:15:56,800 weighted total low nitrogen estimates 1761 01:15:56,800 --> 01:15:58,239 this is what that would look like. So 1762 01:15:58,239 --> 01:16:00,000 the masses are different obviously 1763 01:16:00,000 --> 01:16:01,600 because we're just looking at the brown 1764 01:16:01,600 --> 01:16:02,800 and the first thing I want to point out 1765 01:16:02,800 --> 01:16:05,040 is kind of how I arrange these colors. 1766 01:16:05,040 --> 01:16:08,239 So the purple um this is light purple is 1767 01:16:08,239 --> 01:16:10,480 when the culberts were open and we had a 1768 01:16:10,480 --> 01:16:12,960 deep brown there. The dark dark colors 1769 01:16:12,960 --> 01:16:14,719 are also when we had a deep gran layer 1770 01:16:14,719 --> 01:16:16,880 that's under a new breach paradon those 1771 01:16:16,880 --> 01:16:18,960 tend to be lower. So these upper grind 1772 01:16:18,960 --> 01:16:20,159 layer total dissolve nitrogen 1773 01:16:20,159 --> 01:16:22,159 concentrations when we have a deep gran 1774 01:16:22,159 --> 01:16:24,000 they're present tend to be color 1775 01:16:24,000 --> 01:16:26,640 concentration and then these green these 1776 01:16:26,640 --> 01:16:28,640 kind of green colored dots represent 1777 01:16:28,640 --> 01:16:30,239 when there is no deep in there. So we 1778 01:16:30,239 --> 01:16:32,719 have that nitrogen at depth that's being 1779 01:16:32,719 --> 01:16:34,320 mixed into the water column that 1780 01:16:34,320 --> 01:16:36,960 increases the concentration. So looking 1781 01:16:36,960 --> 01:16:39,760 at this upper brine layers of nitrogen 1782 01:16:39,760 --> 01:16:42,239 were kind of um middle of the range for 1783 01:16:42,239 --> 01:16:44,880 the mass and in that section of the 1784 01:16:44,880 --> 01:16:49,199 water column and low range of oh middle 1785 01:16:49,199 --> 01:16:52,320 of the range of concentration and 1786 01:16:52,320 --> 01:16:54,239 then I also considered ammonia. So this 1787 01:16:54,239 --> 01:16:56,560 might be more interesting um ammonia 1788 01:16:56,560 --> 01:16:58,239 that's what we might think of we can 1789 01:16:58,239 --> 01:16:59,760 measure this way better than we can 1790 01:16:59,760 --> 01:17:01,600 nitrate and nitrite. This is what might 1791 01:17:01,600 --> 01:17:03,360 be available is available to the the 1792 01:17:03,360 --> 01:17:06,719 phytolankton directly and we're seeing 1793 01:17:06,719 --> 01:17:09,360 pretty low concentrations of ammonia 1794 01:17:09,360 --> 01:17:11,199 elongated 1795 01:17:11,199 --> 01:17:13,840 magnet and low masses relative to what 1796 01:17:13,840 --> 01:17:16,159 we've observed in the past. So this is 1797 01:17:16,159 --> 01:17:18,159 just an initial effort to try and put 1798 01:17:18,159 --> 01:17:20,159 what we're observing now into the 1799 01:17:20,159 --> 01:17:26,470 context of this about 15year data set. 1800 01:17:26,480 --> 01:17:27,679 Um, 1801 01:17:27,679 --> 01:17:30,480 >> so you're you're saying like chemical 1802 01:17:30,480 --> 01:17:32,719 destratification, 1803 01:17:32,719 --> 01:17:38,310 you're pretty much consistent with 1804 01:17:38,320 --> 01:17:41,360 when when it's not stratified, no deep 1805 01:17:41,360 --> 01:17:43,840 layer, things are pretty much 1806 01:17:43,840 --> 01:17:45,280 >> correct. When we happen to serve the 1807 01:17:45,280 --> 01:17:46,880 deep grinder, the concentrations we've 1808 01:17:46,880 --> 01:17:49,600 seen now are similar to that if not a 1809 01:17:49,600 --> 01:17:53,600 little bit higher than than a sorry when 1810 01:17:53,600 --> 01:17:56,400 it when we have a deep layer present. 1811 01:17:56,400 --> 01:17:58,080 We're seeing concentrations now that 1812 01:17:58,080 --> 01:18:00,400 have been higher than the upper binary 1813 01:18:00,400 --> 01:18:03,199 when there was when we when we have it 1814 01:18:03,199 --> 01:18:05,280 all mixed in the concentrations tend to 1815 01:18:05,280 --> 01:18:06,960 be higher than these. 1816 01:18:06,960 --> 01:18:08,719 >> Yeah. Trying to think of like the 1817 01:18:08,719 --> 01:18:11,280 feedback making something without 1818 01:18:11,280 --> 01:18:16,480 chemical certification and what is 1819 01:18:16,480 --> 01:18:18,080 affecting 1820 01:18:18,080 --> 01:18:18,560 >> right 1821 01:18:18,560 --> 01:18:20,080 >> that seasonal change. 1822 01:18:20,080 --> 01:18:21,920 >> That's so you're thinking about if we 1823 01:18:21,920 --> 01:18:24,560 were to open the BM get a you know get 1824 01:18:24,560 --> 01:18:27,440 north arm flow and you put form a deeper 1825 01:18:27,440 --> 01:18:28,960 in there how long might that lag be 1826 01:18:28,960 --> 01:18:30,000 before you see that in 1827 01:18:30,000 --> 01:18:31,520 >> right and then that's just the part of 1828 01:18:31,520 --> 01:18:38,229 the turnover for the population. 1829 01:18:38,239 --> 01:18:41,679 natural. I mean my bet is you know deep 1830 01:18:41,679 --> 01:18:43,840 brown layer disappear 1831 01:18:43,840 --> 01:18:46,800 one 1832 01:18:46,800 --> 01:18:49,440 layer disappears maybe I mean the 1833 01:18:49,440 --> 01:18:50,719 nutrients it's difficult because you 1834 01:18:50,719 --> 01:18:52,480 have cycling 1835 01:18:52,480 --> 01:18:54,239 also leave them in those 1836 01:18:54,239 --> 01:18:55,280 >> yes 1837 01:18:55,280 --> 01:18:57,600 >> and there's so much we don't know about 1838 01:18:57,600 --> 01:18:59,360 if I can say the function of the deep 1839 01:18:59,360 --> 01:19:01,199 brine layer and facilitating release of 1840 01:19:01,199 --> 01:19:03,440 nutrients from the sediment and so it 1841 01:19:03,440 --> 01:19:04,960 could be that the deep brine layer 1842 01:19:04,960 --> 01:19:07,120 presence is actually a way of getting 1843 01:19:07,120 --> 01:19:08,719 nutrients out of the sediment and 1844 01:19:08,719 --> 01:19:11,520 subsequently releasing. I think when we 1845 01:19:11,520 --> 01:19:13,280 think about mixing the back in of 1846 01:19:13,280 --> 01:19:15,199 nutrient deeper, we also need to think 1847 01:19:15,199 --> 01:19:16,560 about lake elevation 1848 01:19:16,560 --> 01:19:19,199 >> because we're getting really shallow and 1849 01:19:19,199 --> 01:19:21,600 >> the shallower it is the more 1850 01:19:21,600 --> 01:19:22,880 >> deep stratification 1851 01:19:22,880 --> 01:19:25,520 >> and we actually we actually saw the deep 1852 01:19:25,520 --> 01:19:27,199 disappear when we still have the bridge 1853 01:19:27,199 --> 01:19:30,400 open our hypothesis 1854 01:19:30,400 --> 01:19:33,360 >> that this was like 1855 01:19:33,360 --> 01:19:35,840 >> the contribution of or not of the 1856 01:19:35,840 --> 01:19:39,520 microbial as the lake you know decreases 1857 01:19:39,520 --> 01:19:41,990 of 1858 01:19:42,000 --> 01:19:46,159 right if they come offline. Yeah. 1859 01:19:46,159 --> 01:19:49,280 But I still wonder if we should still 1860 01:19:49,280 --> 01:19:51,440 look at total nitrogen when we're 1861 01:19:51,440 --> 01:19:57,120 looking at the net loss or net gain 1862 01:19:57,120 --> 01:20:00,000 because long term I think total nitrogen 1863 01:20:00,000 --> 01:20:03,120 is going to be important and looking at 1864 01:20:03,120 --> 01:20:07,830 net loss and net 1865 01:20:07,840 --> 01:20:10,640 form and 1866 01:20:10,640 --> 01:20:13,679 >> I think mass curves are going to be 1867 01:20:13,679 --> 01:20:17,920 decent on that Phil created were they 1868 01:20:17,920 --> 01:20:22,800 were distinctly distinct groups 1869 01:20:22,800 --> 01:20:24,880 but again with a lot of variability 1870 01:20:24,880 --> 01:20:26,880 which you see also but maybe with less 1871 01:20:26,880 --> 01:20:30,239 variability than looking at just so 1872 01:20:30,239 --> 01:20:32,159 >> okay so using 1873 01:20:32,159 --> 01:20:36,229 >> he was using total 1874 01:20:36,239 --> 01:20:39,040 » but but I agree with you I mean the the 1875 01:20:39,040 --> 01:20:42,239 old nitrogen is what's important 1876 01:20:42,239 --> 01:20:44,640 sort of to look at the immediate 1877 01:20:44,640 --> 01:20:52,310 the lungs. 1878 01:20:52,320 --> 01:20:54,239 » That's kind of all I have for the 1879 01:20:54,239 --> 01:20:55,520 nutrient stuff. 1880 01:20:55,520 --> 01:20:57,760 >> Oh, see one of your plots where you look 1881 01:20:57,760 --> 01:21:02,000 at um total dissolve nitrogen since like 1882 01:21:02,000 --> 01:21:05,440 2012 when the coverts were closed. 1883 01:21:05,440 --> 01:21:14,630 Um 1884 01:21:14,640 --> 01:21:18,390 » the concentrations. 1885 01:21:18,400 --> 01:21:23,440 » Yeah, I I guess and we had low 1886 01:21:23,440 --> 01:21:25,360 total dissolve nitrogen concentrations 1887 01:21:25,360 --> 01:21:28,320 when the coverts were closed. 1888 01:21:28,320 --> 01:21:31,679 um which would be I guess an analog for 1889 01:21:31,679 --> 01:21:33,679 where we shut off the the north and 1890 01:21:33,679 --> 01:21:37,830 south. 1891 01:21:37,840 --> 01:21:38,560 » So I guess 1892 01:21:38,560 --> 01:21:40,560 >> exactly. Yeah. Yeah. I've been really 1893 01:21:40,560 --> 01:21:42,800 curious about kind of looking at the 1894 01:21:42,800 --> 01:21:44,719 phytolanting data we have from those 1895 01:21:44,719 --> 01:21:46,159 previous time periods and seeing if 1896 01:21:46,159 --> 01:21:48,800 there if there is a response in the 1897 01:21:48,800 --> 01:21:52,870 phytolant 1898 01:21:52,880 --> 01:22:03,189 that's why you know idents 1899 01:22:03,199 --> 01:22:05,199 like the 2015 concentrations were 1900 01:22:05,199 --> 01:22:10,390 similar if not a little higher 1901 01:22:10,400 --> 01:22:12,480 So I guess the good news is opening up 1902 01:22:12,480 --> 01:22:20,400 the breach nitrogen back online 1903 01:22:20,400 --> 01:22:22,400 systems 1904 01:22:22,400 --> 01:22:24,159 doing 1905 01:22:24,159 --> 01:22:26,800 but [snorts] 1906 01:22:26,800 --> 01:22:28,960 something that I wonder if it was worth 1907 01:22:28,960 --> 01:22:31,679 looking into more short term it was a 1908 01:22:31,679 --> 01:22:36,320 net benefit I mean for the upper brine 1909 01:22:36,320 --> 01:22:38,480 long term there's a risk and that's what 1910 01:22:38,480 --> 01:22:41,920 I think we need to assess. 1911 01:22:41,920 --> 01:22:42,560 I 1912 01:22:42,560 --> 01:22:44,000 >> I don't want to derail the BM 1913 01:22:44,000 --> 01:22:46,400 conversation, so I I'll put an asterisk 1914 01:22:46,400 --> 01:22:49,840 in this, but um I I mean, who is 1915 01:22:49,840 --> 01:22:53,360 processing the nitrogen or the microbes? 1916 01:22:53,360 --> 01:22:57,440 And um it's not just um cyanobacteria. 1917 01:22:57,440 --> 01:23:00,639 That's the old ecology model. But we 1918 01:23:00,639 --> 01:23:02,960 know that archaanogens 1919 01:23:02,960 --> 01:23:05,600 that make methane are are processing. 1920 01:23:05,600 --> 01:23:08,400 There's ammonia oxidizing archa. We know 1921 01:23:08,400 --> 01:23:10,800 that they're also cycling um so there's 1922 01:23:10,800 --> 01:23:12,639 some heterotroes that aren't being 1923 01:23:12,639 --> 01:23:15,199 powered by the sun that are also cycle 1924 01:23:15,199 --> 01:23:17,520 cycling nitrogen and we have evidence of 1925 01:23:17,520 --> 01:23:20,480 them from the tar seeds to the north arm 1926 01:23:20,480 --> 01:23:23,520 water to the sediment um as well as in 1927 01:23:23,520 --> 01:23:26,159 the water column the south arm and we 1928 01:23:26,159 --> 01:23:31,679 also know that cyanobacteria are um you 1929 01:23:31,679 --> 01:23:33,600 know also of course very involved and 1930 01:23:33,600 --> 01:23:35,120 they're in the water column so when you 1931 01:23:35,120 --> 01:23:37,360 talk about phytolanton I'm assuming 1932 01:23:37,360 --> 01:23:40,800 you're talking about large algae and not 1933 01:23:40,800 --> 01:23:43,920 cyanos. Um and you are filtering out 1934 01:23:43,920 --> 01:23:46,719 denala etc. the other algae that are in 1935 01:23:46,719 --> 01:23:50,639 the south but um but they aren't they 1936 01:23:50,639 --> 01:23:53,120 aren't fixing nitrogen anyway the the 1937 01:23:53,120 --> 01:23:56,639 cyanos and the aria would be the fixing 1938 01:23:56,639 --> 01:23:58,159 um and they are going through your 1939 01:23:58,159 --> 01:24:02,000 filter. So the question is about how 1940 01:24:02,000 --> 01:24:04,480 much biological nitrogen you're getting 1941 01:24:04,480 --> 01:24:08,560 in your fil in your samples. Um and I 1942 01:24:08,560 --> 01:24:12,639 would love to I mean we use a 22 filter 1943 01:24:12,639 --> 01:24:16,000 as well as a point46. So um it would be 1944 01:24:16,000 --> 01:24:18,000 really interesting experiment and again 1945 01:24:18,000 --> 01:24:19,920 just asteris we don't need to derail the 1946 01:24:19,920 --> 01:24:22,719 conversation but to send a sample that 1947 01:24:22,719 --> 01:24:26,000 was filtered with the smaller filter 1948 01:24:26,000 --> 01:24:27,520 send a sample that was filtered the way 1949 01:24:27,520 --> 01:24:29,199 you do it and then send a sample that 1950 01:24:29,199 --> 01:24:31,520 wasn't filtered to see how much is a 1951 01:24:31,520 --> 01:24:33,840 biological component of the nitrogen 1952 01:24:33,840 --> 01:24:34,560 measurements. 1953 01:24:34,560 --> 01:24:35,120 >> Yeah. 1954 01:24:35,120 --> 01:24:37,520 >> Do you think that I tend to think of the 1955 01:24:37,520 --> 01:24:39,280 organic nitrogen as the difference 1956 01:24:39,280 --> 01:24:41,040 between inorganic nitrogen and the 1957 01:24:41,040 --> 01:24:43,840 dissolved nitrogen? So that is that kind 1958 01:24:43,840 --> 01:24:45,040 of what you're getting at? 1959 01:24:45,040 --> 01:24:47,520 >> So they're they're excreting it and 1960 01:24:47,520 --> 01:24:49,600 trading metabolites. You don't know 1961 01:24:49,600 --> 01:24:51,280 what's inside a cell and what's outside 1962 01:24:51,280 --> 01:24:53,520 of a cell. So it might be biologically 1963 01:24:53,520 --> 01:24:56,080 available but being sequestered in a 1964 01:24:56,080 --> 01:24:58,239 granle that is associated with cell 1965 01:24:58,239 --> 01:25:00,639 membrane inside or it might be being 1966 01:25:00,639 --> 01:25:03,840 released by a cell. And so it's very 1967 01:25:03,840 --> 01:25:06,239 complicated nitrogen metabolism in 1968 01:25:06,239 --> 01:25:08,719 microbes. And so the the question is, 1969 01:25:08,719 --> 01:25:11,360 you know, I I'm so excited that we're 1970 01:25:11,360 --> 01:25:13,120 finally on this committee talking about 1971 01:25:13,120 --> 01:25:15,600 microbial metabolism. 1972 01:25:15,600 --> 01:25:17,920 I've been waiting my whole life for this 1973 01:25:17,920 --> 01:25:20,639 and the validity of the microbes in the 1974 01:25:20,639 --> 01:25:21,440 north arm. 1975 01:25:21,440 --> 01:25:25,040 >> Yes. Anyway, I Yeah, I I think that that 1976 01:25:25,040 --> 01:25:27,520 would be a really easy experiment. Um if 1977 01:25:27,520 --> 01:25:30,400 you want to do that sometimes, do so. 1978 01:25:30,400 --> 01:25:30,800 Cool. 1979 01:25:30,800 --> 01:25:34,480 >> Awesome. Thank you, Bill. 1980 01:25:34,480 --> 01:25:36,960 Yeah, just to to add to that, um, you 1981 01:25:36,960 --> 01:25:39,280 know, the cell sizes are in that range 1982 01:25:39,280 --> 01:25:41,920 of those cutoff filters. So, what Bonnie 1983 01:25:41,920 --> 01:25:45,920 is saying makes a lot of sense. You you should you play with those a bit to 1984 01:25:45,920 --> 01:25:49,120 see how that changes the concentrations. 1985 01:25:49,120 --> 01:25:51,840 Um, what I wanted to point out is that, 1986 01:25:51,840 --> 01:25:53,920 you know, the BMS may not be our only 1987 01:25:53,920 --> 01:25:57,600 tool here. Um, you know, has anybody 1988 01:25:57,600 --> 01:26:00,560 been looking at the possibility of uh 1989 01:26:00,560 --> 01:26:02,880 changing the nutrient flu influxes using 1990 01:26:02,880 --> 01:26:05,199 the wastewater treatment plants and 1991 01:26:05,199 --> 01:26:11,510 their treatment technologies? 1992 01:26:11,520 --> 01:26:18,709 » Yeah. 1993 01:26:18,719 --> 01:26:23,750 EPA. 1994 01:26:23,760 --> 01:26:25,520 So that's the in terms of how much 1995 01:26:25,520 --> 01:26:26,639 nitrogen is coming in. 1996 01:26:26,639 --> 01:26:29,520 >> Yeah. 1997 01:26:29,520 --> 01:26:30,960 And I'm asking that question 1998 01:26:30,960 --> 01:26:32,400 completely out of the bounds of 1999 01:26:32,400 --> 01:26:34,560 regulation, right? Just understanding 2000 01:26:34,560 --> 01:26:38,320 whether or not that's even a potential 2001 01:26:38,320 --> 01:26:40,880 um a potential knob, 2002 01:26:40,880 --> 01:26:42,560 >> right? 2003 01:26:42,560 --> 01:26:44,560 Well, I think it's a good question and I 2004 01:26:44,560 --> 01:26:46,560 don't know that we have the answer here 2005 01:26:46,560 --> 01:26:48,000 and Jim, I don't know. 2006 01:26:48,000 --> 01:26:49,440 >> I'll just say within the bounds of 2007 01:26:49,440 --> 01:26:52,560 regulation, it's it's not necessarily 2008 01:26:52,560 --> 01:26:55,360 feasible. Um unless you were pipe all of 2009 01:26:55,360 --> 01:26:57,440 it 2010 01:26:57,440 --> 01:26:59,440 taking it you know allowing it to 2011 01:26:59,440 --> 01:27:03,830 discharge into the water 2012 01:27:03,840 --> 01:27:06,560 but in the case of 2013 01:27:06,560 --> 01:27:11,830 pipe it directly 2014 01:27:11,840 --> 01:27:17,910 off from technology they set them 2015 01:27:17,920 --> 01:27:19,199 depend on the context in which you're 2016 01:27:19,199 --> 01:27:21,360 talking about this but I you look at 2017 01:27:21,360 --> 01:27:23,280 some of the [clears throat] graphs 2018 01:27:23,280 --> 01:27:26,080 Excuse me. And uh just looking at the 2019 01:27:26,080 --> 01:27:27,360 magnitude of what's coming into the 2020 01:27:27,360 --> 01:27:30,560 rivers versus the north arm and that and 2021 01:27:30,560 --> 01:27:33,120 the rivers include so much more uh 2022 01:27:33,120 --> 01:27:35,760 nutrient sources from other other things 2023 01:27:35,760 --> 01:27:41,110 other than waste water. 2024 01:27:41,120 --> 01:27:43,520 » Absolutely. 2025 01:27:43,520 --> 01:27:47,840 She would be worth looking at um 2026 01:27:47,840 --> 01:27:50,880 seasonal discharges of nutrients. There 2027 01:27:50,880 --> 01:27:54,239 are periods of time where we get high 2028 01:27:54,239 --> 01:27:56,400 runoff 2029 01:27:56,400 --> 01:27:58,960 we would allow more nutrient discharge 2030 01:27:58,960 --> 01:28:00,639 on 2031 01:28:00,639 --> 01:28:04,560 that runoff as as a tool to potentially 2032 01:28:04,560 --> 01:28:06,880 bring nitrogen into the lake were that 2033 01:28:06,880 --> 01:28:10,070 necessary. 2034 01:28:10,080 --> 01:28:12,480 Yeah, I mean I you'd have to look at 2035 01:28:12,480 --> 01:28:14,239 that and see what effect it has on the 2036 01:28:14,239 --> 01:28:15,840 nutrient pool again within a river 2037 01:28:15,840 --> 01:28:18,719 system and how much it would get cycled 2038 01:28:18,719 --> 01:28:21,679 in within the river and causes effects 2039 01:28:21,679 --> 01:28:24,239 that 2040 01:28:24,239 --> 01:28:26,000 >> we have to look at it but I mean would 2041 01:28:26,000 --> 01:28:27,920 it make sense 2042 01:28:27,920 --> 01:28:30,320 that 2043 01:28:30,320 --> 01:28:36,310 >> um you get off 2044 01:28:36,320 --> 01:28:48,950 the river 2045 01:28:48,960 --> 01:28:53,590 It's an experiment. I'm not sure 2046 01:28:53,600 --> 01:28:54,880 answer that question. 2047 01:28:54,880 --> 01:28:56,560 >> We I mean we can definitely do it at our 2048 01:28:56,560 --> 01:28:59,679 gauges for our main surface water 2049 01:28:59,679 --> 01:29:02,320 gauges. We can look at that and you 2050 01:29:02,320 --> 01:29:04,639 would expect higher loads certainly run 2051 01:29:04,639 --> 01:29:06,320 off periods of runoff discharge is 2052 01:29:06,320 --> 01:29:08,000 higher. But the relationship between 2053 01:29:08,000 --> 01:29:09,760 nutrients and discharge is something I 2054 01:29:09,760 --> 01:29:12,239 know. Is it is it actually the 2055 01:29:12,239 --> 01:29:14,800 concentration going up as we flushing or 2056 01:29:14,800 --> 01:29:16,639 is it 2057 01:29:16,639 --> 01:29:19,280 and we proposed in our GLU agreement for 2058 01:29:19,280 --> 01:29:21,840 next year to quantum update the endow 2059 01:29:21,840 --> 01:29:23,920 load. 2060 01:29:23,920 --> 01:29:27,360 That would be a first approach 2061 01:29:27,360 --> 01:29:30,159 that we don't regulate nitrogen. 2062 01:29:30,159 --> 01:29:33,360 We do regulate phosphorus. 2063 01:29:33,360 --> 01:29:36,480 I just keep in mind boundaries if we 2064 01:29:36,480 --> 01:29:38,719 regulate ammonia for factor we don't 2065 01:29:38,719 --> 01:29:41,600 want to see which case we probably 2066 01:29:41,600 --> 01:29:43,760 continue to do that regardless of when 2067 01:29:43,760 --> 01:29:46,239 we started 2068 01:29:46,239 --> 01:29:50,719 so we're not really putting limits on 2069 01:29:50,719 --> 01:29:57,189 the result of putting limits on false 2070 01:29:57,199 --> 01:30:00,239 » everybody else 2071 01:30:00,239 --> 01:30:03,600 >> Jim to summarize that Because I mean 2072 01:30:03,600 --> 01:30:05,360 you're from a regulatory standpoint, 2073 01:30:05,360 --> 01:30:07,040 you're protecting the receiving water 2074 01:30:07,040 --> 01:30:07,600 body, 2075 01:30:07,600 --> 01:30:08,159 >> right? 2076 01:30:08,159 --> 01:30:12,719 >> And so you know, there's a lot that happens in 2077 01:30:12,719 --> 01:30:14,960 the receiving water body as and then as 2078 01:30:14,960 --> 01:30:18,560 that water travels through the lake and 2079 01:30:18,560 --> 01:30:22,320 so if the Jordan River was a pipe that's 2080 01:30:22,320 --> 01:30:26,239 different than given that it's a has its 2081 01:30:26,239 --> 01:30:28,080 own ecology. 2082 01:30:28,080 --> 01:30:31,520 So one final remark on that. I'm sorry. 2083 01:30:31,520 --> 01:30:33,520 Go ahead. Um, so we have some new gauges 2084 01:30:33,520 --> 01:30:34,880 that are closer to the lake on the 2085 01:30:34,880 --> 01:30:37,760 Weaver River. Um, a new gauge on on Leed 2086 01:30:37,760 --> 01:30:40,719 Creek. So, um, especially the the Weaver 2087 01:30:40,719 --> 01:30:41,920 River, I would think it would be 2088 01:30:41,920 --> 01:30:44,000 important to sample those lower gauges 2089 01:30:44,000 --> 01:30:47,199 now, the North Fork, the South Fork, uh, 2090 01:30:47,199 --> 01:30:48,960 that are closer to the lake to see how 2091 01:30:48,960 --> 01:30:50,800 the concentrations of nutrients at those 2092 01:30:50,800 --> 01:30:52,639 two sites compared to the plane city 2093 01:30:52,639 --> 01:30:54,320 gauge 2094 01:30:54,320 --> 01:30:56,320 >> and how those concentrations correlate 2095 01:30:56,320 --> 01:30:59,280 with, you know, the Ramoff. Yeah, I 2096 01:30:59,280 --> 01:31:01,040 think would be very interesting. would 2097 01:31:01,040 --> 01:31:02,960 be a verse approach in looking at 2098 01:31:02,960 --> 01:31:04,880 potentially using that as a as a 2099 01:31:04,880 --> 01:31:07,920 technique to manage nitrogen inflows 2100 01:31:07,920 --> 01:31:10,239 into the lake. 2101 01:31:10,239 --> 01:31:13,679 I I know when we sampled the the 2102 01:31:13,679 --> 01:31:18,000 northeus delta discharge and their 2103 01:31:18,000 --> 01:31:20,239 nutrients were down to background levels 2104 01:31:20,239 --> 01:31:22,880 before after it ran through, 1200 acres 2105 01:31:22,880 --> 01:31:25,360 of wetlands before it got to farming 2106 01:31:25,360 --> 01:31:29,280 today. So I mean farming bay is just a 2107 01:31:29,280 --> 01:31:31,920 small part of your overall budget 2108 01:31:31,920 --> 01:31:33,760 >> but with the lower lake with all the 2109 01:31:33,760 --> 01:31:37,920 wetlands in between those wetlands are 2110 01:31:37,920 --> 01:31:39,440 nutrients too 2111 01:31:39,440 --> 01:31:42,870 >> consume 2112 01:31:42,880 --> 01:31:47,120 let's and let's look at options 2113 01:31:47,120 --> 01:31:47,679 >> okay 2114 01:31:47,679 --> 01:31:49,360 >> scenarios 2115 01:31:49,360 --> 01:31:52,960 >> all of it taken with a grain of salt 2116 01:31:52,960 --> 01:31:55,199 that is what we do on this we take care 2117 01:31:55,199 --> 01:31:58,159 of just like to make a couple comments, 2118 01:31:58,159 --> 01:32:00,880 Jeff. I I think before we look at 2119 01:32:00,880 --> 01:32:03,360 options, I think we need to look at 2120 01:32:03,360 --> 01:32:05,360 overall balance. I think we need to look 2121 01:32:05,360 --> 01:32:09,760 at nitrogen inflow through uh rivers and 2122 01:32:09,760 --> 01:32:12,159 see how that may or may not balance the 2123 01:32:12,159 --> 01:32:14,800 net losses we had through the breach. 2124 01:32:14,800 --> 01:32:17,840 And I think that's a really important um 2125 01:32:17,840 --> 01:32:19,840 mechanism that we need to look at in 2126 01:32:19,840 --> 01:32:23,840 terms of our total nitrogen budget. The 2127 01:32:23,840 --> 01:32:25,520 other thing I believe we need to do is 2128 01:32:25,520 --> 01:32:28,159 also look at total nitrogen because I 2129 01:32:28,159 --> 01:32:30,639 think at long term the total nitrogen 2130 01:32:30,639 --> 01:32:32,960 may be more important where short term I 2131 01:32:32,960 --> 01:32:35,199 would totally agree that the salt total 2132 01:32:35,199 --> 01:32:37,199 dissolved nitrogen may be much more 2133 01:32:37,199 --> 01:32:40,239 significant. I don't think we can make a 2134 01:32:40,239 --> 01:32:43,520 lot of recommendations before we have 2135 01:32:43,520 --> 01:32:46,719 that data set but that's my opinion. 2136 01:32:46,719 --> 01:32:48,719 Well, that I think just real quick on 2137 01:32:48,719 --> 01:32:51,600 that same regard, Alice, because I I it 2138 01:32:51,600 --> 01:32:53,040 does seem like maybe we need to wait 2139 01:32:53,040 --> 01:32:56,159 until the next staffing recommendation, 2140 01:32:56,159 --> 01:32:57,600 but we should try to line out at least 2141 01:32:57,600 --> 01:32:59,120 like what information we want to have 2142 01:32:59,120 --> 01:33:01,199 ready before then. But one thing I think 2143 01:33:01,199 --> 01:33:02,880 we do need to consider is, you know, 2144 01:33:02,880 --> 01:33:04,960 just in general, you know, thinking 2145 01:33:04,960 --> 01:33:06,960 through nitro, not even considering 2146 01:33:06,960 --> 01:33:08,560 nitrogen, but also while considering 2147 01:33:08,560 --> 01:33:10,400 nitrogen, you know, what what we may 2148 01:33:10,400 --> 01:33:12,159 want to do like this fall like we have, 2149 01:33:12,159 --> 01:33:14,320 they have a special session. I think 2150 01:33:14,320 --> 01:33:15,840 there's some expectations that we're 2151 01:33:15,840 --> 01:33:17,679 looking at, you know, more than just 2152 01:33:17,679 --> 01:33:19,520 solenity. Now, we're also trying to 2153 01:33:19,520 --> 01:33:21,199 manage for like, you know, quite a few 2154 01:33:21,199 --> 01:33:23,679 other specific proofs, you know, as it 2155 01:33:23,679 --> 01:33:25,440 relates to the firm. And so, you know, 2156 01:33:25,440 --> 01:33:27,440 the expectation is is that, you know, we 2157 01:33:27,440 --> 01:33:29,520 want to protect these other functions of 2158 01:33:29,520 --> 01:33:30,880 the lake like one would be like, you 2159 01:33:30,880 --> 01:33:32,000 know, we think we're going to have 2160 01:33:32,000 --> 01:33:34,080 another bad year. We're going to go much 2161 01:33:34,080 --> 01:33:36,000 further below 402. We know we're going 2162 01:33:36,000 --> 01:33:37,600 to expose a bunch of microbial lights. 2163 01:33:37,600 --> 01:33:39,360 Maybe the move is that you know in 2164 01:33:39,360 --> 01:33:40,960 November we raise it up and try to 2165 01:33:40,960 --> 01:33:43,199 compound you know we are so prepared for 2166 01:33:43,199 --> 01:33:46,000 that we want to consider importing a 2167 01:33:46,000 --> 01:33:47,199 bunch of salt but we can also 2168 01:33:47,199 --> 01:33:48,639 potentially import a bunch of nutrients 2169 01:33:48,639 --> 01:33:51,600 at the same time. So I think we just 2170 01:33:51,600 --> 01:33:53,040 like I think we got to think through 2171 01:33:53,040 --> 01:33:56,480 this a little bit like what the next 2172 01:33:56,480 --> 01:33:58,719 look like. Well, and I think the good 2173 01:33:58,719 --> 01:34:00,960 news is that we could even for a little 2174 01:34:00,960 --> 01:34:05,920 while longer just manage on um salinity 2175 01:34:05,920 --> 01:34:09,520 because we know that with an increase in 2176 01:34:09,520 --> 01:34:12,239 dissolved nitrogen due to the loss of 2177 01:34:12,239 --> 01:34:15,040 the iron layer. So we are sort of in a 2178 01:34:15,040 --> 01:34:16,560 situation right now where the total 2179 01:34:16,560 --> 01:34:18,480 dissolved nitrogen is actually higher 2180 01:34:18,480 --> 01:34:22,080 than it was historically. 2181 01:34:22,080 --> 01:34:25,280 Now that's a temporary potentially a 2182 01:34:25,280 --> 01:34:26,719 temporary situation. really sweet 2183 01:34:26,719 --> 01:34:29,120 science experiment too to even lower it 2184 01:34:29,120 --> 01:34:31,120 and see what happens as we measure what 2185 01:34:31,120 --> 01:34:33,199 you know what fluxes back to the south 2186 01:34:33,199 --> 01:34:34,960 we're looking at the 2187 01:34:34,960 --> 01:34:37,990 >> mass 2188 01:34:38,000 --> 01:34:39,760 is a 2189 01:34:39,760 --> 01:34:41,920 really nice plot to show like we're 2190 01:34:41,920 --> 01:34:45,440 actually maybe not critical point yet 2191 01:34:45,440 --> 01:34:46,560 but it's good to have these 2192 01:34:46,560 --> 01:34:49,120 conversations ahead 2193 01:34:49,120 --> 01:34:52,719 >> so yeah and maybe just adding like four 2194 01:34:52,719 --> 01:34:54,239 months isn't a lot of time but like 2195 01:34:54,239 --> 01:34:56,480 we're gonna open it up and say let's run 2196 01:34:56,480 --> 01:34:58,639 to the end of the the low point of the 2197 01:34:58,639 --> 01:35:00,159 year which was usually like end of 2198 01:35:00,159 --> 01:35:02,960 October early November you know we ran 2199 01:35:02,960 --> 01:35:04,480 through that that's not a lot of time to 2200 01:35:04,480 --> 01:35:06,719 have to breach lower and I think that 2201 01:35:06,719 --> 01:35:07,920 this is something I think we've all 2202 01:35:07,920 --> 01:35:10,000 talked about either separately like on 2203 01:35:10,000 --> 01:35:12,000 oneoffs on what we should do but I think 2204 01:35:12,000 --> 01:35:14,080 the concept right now is maybe we should 2205 01:35:14,080 --> 01:35:15,520 bring back a little bit of salt in 2206 01:35:15,520 --> 01:35:17,520 preparation for wanting to you know 2207 01:35:17,520 --> 01:35:19,360 raise it and to keep some other 2208 01:35:19,360 --> 01:35:21,040 functionality on the south arm going for 2209 01:35:21,040 --> 01:35:22,639 that limited amount of time we have with 2210 01:35:22,639 --> 01:35:24,480 the you know what the laws allow us to 2211 01:35:24,480 --> 01:35:26,400 do with the confirm. But again, this is 2212 01:35:26,400 --> 01:35:28,000 where I think this conversation probably 2213 01:35:28,000 --> 01:35:30,960 needs to be more robust over the next 23 2214 01:35:30,960 --> 01:35:34,480 minutes. So, doing 2215 01:35:34,480 --> 01:35:36,320 >> I was just going to say the flies as 2216 01:35:36,320 --> 01:35:38,080 well as the shrimp had a robust year 2217 01:35:38,080 --> 01:35:40,880 last year. Like this would be a great 2218 01:35:40,880 --> 01:35:43,600 year to play with this, you know, 2219 01:35:43,600 --> 01:35:44,320 population 2220 01:35:44,320 --> 01:35:45,679 >> and try to maintain that, right? Like 2221 01:35:45,679 --> 01:35:48,239 who can you buy off one extra year while 2222 01:35:48,239 --> 01:35:50,000 we're doing extra things, right? Like 2223 01:35:50,000 --> 01:35:51,199 there's all these different efforts 2224 01:35:51,199 --> 01:35:53,040 happening water to the lake. So if we 2225 01:35:53,040 --> 01:35:55,120 can like band-aid fix a couple things 2226 01:35:55,120 --> 01:35:56,320 while we're trying to work on these 2227 01:35:56,320 --> 01:35:58,400 broader more systemic issues, you know, 2228 01:35:58,400 --> 01:36:00,080 like that, I think it's worth trying. 2229 01:36:00,080 --> 01:36:01,360 >> And if we could do some additional 2230 01:36:01,360 --> 01:36:03,120 experiments during that time to drill 2231 01:36:03,120 --> 01:36:05,520 into the nitrogen. So 2232 01:36:05,520 --> 01:36:08,880 >> let's go to Bill and then I think 2233 01:36:08,880 --> 01:36:11,040 >> her scenarios bracket things really 2234 01:36:11,040 --> 01:36:14,960 nicely um and gives us some idea of what 2235 01:36:14,960 --> 01:36:17,760 happens if we block things up or if we 2236 01:36:17,760 --> 01:36:20,639 open things up and does is there a 2237 01:36:20,639 --> 01:36:22,880 response? We try to keep like 10 minutes 2238 01:36:22,880 --> 01:36:24,719 for homework assignments so we know that 2239 01:36:24,719 --> 01:36:27,280 next time we come we all have things to 2240 01:36:27,280 --> 01:36:28,880 be decisions. 2241 01:36:28,880 --> 01:36:29,520 >> No. 2242 01:36:29,520 --> 01:36:32,239 >> Yeah. Just a real quick um if if we're 2243 01:36:32,239 --> 01:36:33,760 getting more serious about a mass 2244 01:36:33,760 --> 01:36:35,840 balance on these nutrients across the 2245 01:36:35,840 --> 01:36:38,000 lake. A lot of it's going to come down 2246 01:36:38,000 --> 01:36:41,360 to increased um sampling and monitoring 2247 01:36:41,360 --> 01:36:44,320 uh at the inflows presumably by USGS. 2248 01:36:44,320 --> 01:36:45,600 And I don't know where we are compared 2249 01:36:45,600 --> 01:36:47,440 to back in the day when we when we 2250 01:36:47,440 --> 01:36:50,080 beefed that up in the Selenium project, 2251 01:36:50,080 --> 01:36:53,280 but you know that's that's a significant 2252 01:36:53,280 --> 01:36:57,280 uh budgetary uh piece. And so I just 2253 01:36:57,280 --> 01:36:59,040 want to put that as a placeholder that 2254 01:36:59,040 --> 01:37:01,760 it's not as simple as it's going to take 2255 01:37:01,760 --> 01:37:03,440 some real increased monitoring and 2256 01:37:03,440 --> 01:37:05,520 eventbased monitoring. The problem is is 2257 01:37:05,520 --> 01:37:08,960 that as the uh river inflow increases, 2258 01:37:08,960 --> 01:37:11,520 you tend to flush things much more than 2259 01:37:11,520 --> 01:37:13,600 on the on the tailing limb of the 2260 01:37:13,600 --> 01:37:16,560 discharge curve and and so it's also an 2261 01:37:16,560 --> 01:37:18,639 event based kind of monitoring too as 2262 01:37:18,639 --> 01:37:21,199 well as regular monitoring. 2263 01:37:21,199 --> 01:37:23,280 >> Bill, I can speak to that. The USGS 2264 01:37:23,280 --> 01:37:25,280 monitors the inflow major surface water 2265 01:37:25,280 --> 01:37:27,199 inflows every six weeks. So we get about 2266 01:37:27,199 --> 01:37:29,520 eight to nine samples per year and we do 2267 01:37:29,520 --> 01:37:31,520 try to hit high flows. That's part of 2268 01:37:31,520 --> 01:37:33,600 our monitoring routine. It's to try and 2269 01:37:33,600 --> 01:37:35,920 capture high flows, really low flows, 2270 01:37:35,920 --> 01:37:37,679 trying to capture a range of hydraologic 2271 01:37:37,679 --> 01:37:38,320 conditions. 2272 01:37:38,320 --> 01:37:40,000 >> No. And that's great that let you 2273 01:37:40,000 --> 01:37:42,480 correlate things on Loadash or whatever 2274 01:37:42,480 --> 01:37:44,719 uh software you use to to create these 2275 01:37:44,719 --> 01:37:47,119 correlations um for things that aren't 2276 01:37:47,119 --> 01:37:50,239 being monitored, but but also on the 2277 01:37:50,239 --> 01:37:53,520 rising versus the falling limb, 2278 01:37:53,520 --> 01:37:55,119 even though you get the same discharge 2279 01:37:55,119 --> 01:37:56,560 on either side of that limb, the 2280 01:37:56,560 --> 01:37:58,080 concentrations could be be quite 2281 01:37:58,080 --> 01:37:59,520 different. So there's an event based 2282 01:37:59,520 --> 01:38:02,560 piece to this that also has to fall into 2283 01:38:02,560 --> 01:38:04,400 place in addition to just doing this 2284 01:38:04,400 --> 01:38:07,040 across a bunch of different discharges. 2285 01:38:07,040 --> 01:38:10,470 >> Yeah. 2286 01:38:10,480 --> 01:38:13,679 » Is just have a question for Christine 2287 01:38:13,679 --> 01:38:16,239 before we look at what next. Is there a 2288 01:38:16,239 --> 01:38:19,040 way with the current information that we 2289 01:38:19,040 --> 01:38:21,199 have and the modeling that is available 2290 01:38:21,199 --> 01:38:27,109 to us that we could u 2291 01:38:27,119 --> 01:38:29,280 create a preliminary model where what 2292 01:38:29,280 --> 01:38:31,920 would happen if we open up the bur let's 2293 01:38:31,920 --> 01:38:33,840 say when you think 2294 01:38:33,840 --> 01:38:36,639 >> oh I I mean 2295 01:38:36,639 --> 01:38:38,320 the longer we wait the smaller the 2296 01:38:38,320 --> 01:38:38,880 benefit 2297 01:38:38,880 --> 01:38:40,800 >> that's exactly what Christine just meant 2298 01:38:40,800 --> 01:38:43,840 is what if we open it now what we open 2299 01:38:43,840 --> 01:38:47,600 it later what if we close it. 2300 01:38:47,600 --> 01:38:48,639 >> Those are the things that are tried to 2301 01:38:48,639 --> 01:38:49,440 bracket. 2302 01:38:49,440 --> 01:38:51,280 >> Yeah. And then we can kind of build that 2303 01:38:51,280 --> 01:38:54,320 out more. So, yes, Jeff asked me to come 2304 01:38:54,320 --> 01:38:55,920 up with a few scenarios to kind of build 2305 01:38:55,920 --> 01:38:57,920 on what we shared previously. Um, I'm 2306 01:38:57,920 --> 01:39:00,880 just going to, you know, how I try to do 2307 01:39:00,880 --> 01:39:03,920 this. Um, the fall predictions for fall 2308 01:39:03,920 --> 01:39:06,000 using a mass balance approach for dry 2309 01:39:06,000 --> 01:39:08,400 warm conditions 134 grams per liter for 2310 01:39:08,400 --> 01:39:11,679 salinity and for average conditions 125. 2311 01:39:11,679 --> 01:39:13,600 I am really not satisfied with this 2312 01:39:13,600 --> 01:39:15,520 approach. So I did another one um which 2313 01:39:15,520 --> 01:39:17,199 is basically to say we're getting an 2314 01:39:17,199 --> 01:39:19,760 average of around 2.7 feet decline 2315 01:39:19,760 --> 01:39:21,360 during what I call the evaporation 2316 01:39:21,360 --> 01:39:23,199 season. You could also call season of 2317 01:39:23,199 --> 01:39:25,440 net water loss. And then I take kind of 2318 01:39:25,440 --> 01:39:27,760 a 95th percentile kind of confidence 2319 01:39:27,760 --> 01:39:29,600 interval to just look at a range of 2320 01:39:29,600 --> 01:39:31,920 declines. Um just if we remove that 2321 01:39:31,920 --> 01:39:34,560 water over the season um getting a range 2322 01:39:34,560 --> 01:39:38,800 of elevations from 4189.9 to 4189.4 for 2323 01:39:38,800 --> 01:39:40,880 um and those would result in fall 2324 01:39:40,880 --> 01:39:42,080 concentrations that are a little bit 2325 01:39:42,080 --> 01:39:44,560 higher than the other method 138 to 143 2326 01:39:44,560 --> 01:39:46,719 grams per year and that's kind of a 2327 01:39:46,719 --> 01:39:49,920 starting condition is the low April 7th 2328 01:39:49,920 --> 01:39:52,320 measurements of salinity that we so 2329 01:39:52,320 --> 01:39:57,199 ballpark fall salinity. Um so then uh 2330 01:39:57,199 --> 01:39:59,040 walking through a few scenarios of what 2331 01:39:59,040 --> 01:40:01,679 we might expect six to 12 to 18 months 2332 01:40:01,679 --> 01:40:03,280 into the future. Okay, the first 2333 01:40:03,280 --> 01:40:05,600 scenario is and I did June 1st. I know 2334 01:40:05,600 --> 01:40:07,199 that's probably aggressive, but to get 2335 01:40:07,199 --> 01:40:09,199 at this, you know, five months of 2336 01:40:09,199 --> 01:40:12,239 change, lower berm on June 1st. Um, and 2337 01:40:12,239 --> 01:40:14,080 that I'm assuming would mimic what we 2338 01:40:14,080 --> 01:40:15,920 had the cross-section had previously. So 2339 01:40:15,920 --> 01:40:17,679 that allows me to look into historic 2340 01:40:17,679 --> 01:40:19,840 data when the breach was open and try to 2341 01:40:19,840 --> 01:40:21,679 look at flux and discharge rates that 2342 01:40:21,679 --> 01:40:24,159 were measured previously. So lower the 2343 01:40:24,159 --> 01:40:26,239 vermune first, import salts and 2344 01:40:26,239 --> 01:40:27,600 nutrients and whatever else from the 2345 01:40:27,600 --> 01:40:30,080 north farm during summer 2026, and then 2346 01:40:30,080 --> 01:40:32,719 raise it on November 1st, 2026. And what 2347 01:40:32,719 --> 01:40:35,119 I and all of these we raise it on we 2348 01:40:35,119 --> 01:40:36,800 raise it and I'm assuming that just 2349 01:40:36,800 --> 01:40:39,280 basically disconnects and I know that 2350 01:40:39,280 --> 01:40:41,280 that's oversimplifying it but it's very 2351 01:40:41,280 --> 01:40:43,760 hard to predict what fluxes might be at 2352 01:40:43,760 --> 01:40:45,840 a range of burm heights and I just I 2353 01:40:45,840 --> 01:40:48,639 didn't want to go there. So scenario two 2354 01:40:48,639 --> 01:40:51,600 we lower the burm on June 1st 2026 2355 01:40:51,600 --> 01:40:54,800 through January 2027. So we would raise 2356 01:40:54,800 --> 01:40:57,040 the burm on February the 1st of 2027. So 2357 01:40:57,040 --> 01:41:01,440 just extending the period to which the breach is open. And then scenario 2358 01:41:01,440 --> 01:41:03,360 three is we don't modify the farm over 2359 01:41:03,360 --> 01:41:05,040 the summer, but we still raise it on 2360 01:41:05,040 --> 01:41:07,520 November 1st. And please feel free to 2361 01:41:07,520 --> 01:41:10,480 jump in if you have time in any. So now 2362 01:41:10,480 --> 01:41:13,280 we're looking at this isomass plots of 2363 01:41:13,280 --> 01:41:14,719 salinity. These are all going to be at 2364 01:41:14,719 --> 01:41:17,040 salinity. This is our measured values on 2365 01:41:17,040 --> 01:41:19,520 May 20th, 2026. So this is kind of where 2366 01:41:19,520 --> 01:41:21,840 we are roughly right now. 118 g per 2367 01:41:21,840 --> 01:41:25,760 liter, 4191.9 ft, and 847 million tons 2368 01:41:25,760 --> 01:41:29,600 of salt. So going into the fall uh 2369 01:41:29,600 --> 01:41:32,400 predictions on November 1st, I assume 2370 01:41:32,400 --> 01:41:34,800 that we're going to drop three feet. So 2371 01:41:34,800 --> 01:41:36,080 you're all aware that's that's the 2372 01:41:36,080 --> 01:41:38,239 assumption made here. And so that gets 2373 01:41:38,239 --> 01:41:41,760 us to an elevation of 4189.3 ft with the 2374 01:41:41,760 --> 01:41:44,159 two scenarios we have. first one um 2375 01:41:44,159 --> 01:41:46,080 scenarios one and two with the firm open 2376 01:41:46,080 --> 01:41:48,800 over the summer estimating that we'd get 2377 01:41:48,800 --> 01:41:51,440 u I think it's 32 million tons over the 2378 01:41:51,440 --> 01:41:52,880 summer that we import that would get us 2379 01:41:52,880 --> 01:41:56,560 to 879 million tons of salt by the fall 2380 01:41:56,560 --> 01:42:00,719 scenario one and two are the same for this time step um if we leave the 2381 01:42:00,719 --> 01:42:03,119 burn open we continue to lose salt on 2382 01:42:03,119 --> 01:42:05,280 the order of I think it's around 14 2383 01:42:05,280 --> 01:42:07,440 million tons for this fivemon time 2384 01:42:07,440 --> 01:42:10,239 period and you get 835 million so you 2385 01:42:10,239 --> 01:42:12,159 get these kind of salt mass has changed 2386 01:42:12,159 --> 01:42:14,320 for these two scenar scenarios. For the 2387 01:42:14,320 --> 01:42:16,880 scenario as is, I estimate about 140 2388 01:42:16,880 --> 01:42:23,119 grams per liter. Um, and then for the modified firm, 147 g per liter. So, 2389 01:42:23,119 --> 01:42:25,440 a little bit of a increase for the 2390 01:42:25,440 --> 01:42:28,080 scenario where we open the door. Fast 2391 01:42:28,080 --> 01:42:30,560 forward. Okay. And then for nitrogen, 2392 01:42:30,560 --> 01:42:32,480 very very estimates of what this would 2393 01:42:32,480 --> 01:42:34,719 do to nitrogen, but for the instances 2394 01:42:34,719 --> 01:42:37,760 where we leave the the um breach open, 2395 01:42:37,760 --> 01:42:40,239 if we open it, we would import an 2396 01:42:40,239 --> 01:42:42,639 estimated 570 tons. And those are based 2397 01:42:42,639 --> 01:42:45,440 on very crude kind of median rate flux 2398 01:42:45,440 --> 01:42:47,440 rates we've observed in the past 2399 01:42:47,440 --> 01:42:50,000 relative to the resident salt nitrogen 2400 01:42:50,000 --> 01:42:51,679 mass in the south arm. That would be 2401 01:42:51,679 --> 01:42:53,520 about a 0.1 milligram per liter 2402 01:42:53,520 --> 01:42:55,360 increase. That is not measurable. That 2403 01:42:55,360 --> 01:42:57,360 is within you know the uncertainty of 2404 01:42:57,360 --> 01:42:59,600 what we can measure with our methods. So 2405 01:42:59,600 --> 01:43:01,280 we should not be able to plan to measure 2406 01:43:01,280 --> 01:43:02,480 that. But um 2407 01:43:02,480 --> 01:43:05,520 >> is that a net import? Net import, yes, 2408 01:43:05,520 --> 01:43:08,639 net import of nitrogen. And then for the 2409 01:43:08,639 --> 01:43:11,440 kind of asinis scenario, we would lose 2410 01:43:11,440 --> 01:43:14,480 about the same amount, 500 tons tons of 2411 01:43:14,480 --> 01:43:16,320 total blood nitrogen over this roughly 2412 01:43:16,320 --> 01:43:18,800 five month time period. Just huge 2413 01:43:18,800 --> 01:43:20,560 distance. All right. So if we fast 2414 01:43:20,560 --> 01:43:22,159 forward to May, all right. And then 2415 01:43:22,159 --> 01:43:24,480 again on November 1st, we raise it. We 2416 01:43:24,480 --> 01:43:26,320 raise the burn for scenarios one and 2417 01:43:26,320 --> 01:43:30,320 three. So cutting off the 2418 01:43:30,320 --> 01:43:32,880 >> I'm sorry. I know this is a lot. 2419 01:43:32,880 --> 01:43:39,030 >> It's great. That's a lot. 2420 01:43:39,040 --> 01:43:41,280 » All right. Gets even more complicated. 2421 01:43:41,280 --> 01:43:44,239 So May 30th, 2027, about 12 months from 2422 01:43:44,239 --> 01:43:49,199 now, I considered three elevations. This 2423 01:43:49,199 --> 01:43:54,800 is the most difficult kind of period to guess what you know the lake will do. 2424 01:43:54,800 --> 01:43:57,679 It's all about water. So we've got a 2425 01:43:57,679 --> 01:44:00,639 scenario where we repeat 2026 runoff and 2426 01:44:00,639 --> 01:44:03,520 gain about 1.3 feet. That's this low 2427 01:44:03,520 --> 01:44:06,560 horizontal line. Um mean runoff is about 2428 01:44:06,560 --> 01:44:08,800 2.2 feet of rise. That's kind of this 2429 01:44:08,800 --> 01:44:10,960 middle range. And then 2023 just as a 2430 01:44:10,960 --> 01:44:12,960 high end. So that represents our wet, 2431 01:44:12,960 --> 01:44:15,600 average, and dry warm scenarios. And 2432 01:44:15,600 --> 01:44:17,679 then salt associated salt masses with 2433 01:44:17,679 --> 01:44:20,080 each of these um scenarios. So I want to 2434 01:44:20,080 --> 01:44:21,840 point out for the second scenario where 2435 01:44:21,840 --> 01:44:25,440 we raise it on February 1, you lose mass 2436 01:44:25,440 --> 01:44:27,360 salt and nutrient mass. And that's 2437 01:44:27,360 --> 01:44:30,239 because we have a season of net import 2438 01:44:30,239 --> 01:44:32,000 of constituents from the north farm. 2439 01:44:32,000 --> 01:44:35,199 this roughly from June to October and 2440 01:44:35,199 --> 01:44:37,119 November, December, January, you start 2441 01:44:37,119 --> 01:44:39,119 to have net export of those things at 2442 01:44:39,119 --> 01:44:40,800 the new breach. So it's from the 2443 01:44:40,800 --> 01:44:42,639 analysis that I've done, it's not 2444 01:44:42,639 --> 01:44:44,560 advantageous to leave it open longer 2445 01:44:44,560 --> 01:44:45,920 than 2446 01:44:45,920 --> 01:44:49,360 >> if you there's a point in time based on 2447 01:44:49,360 --> 01:44:51,119 the elevation differences between the 2448 01:44:51,119 --> 01:44:52,800 north and south arm where you can import 2449 01:44:52,800 --> 01:44:55,679 things from the net import. But after 2450 01:44:55,679 --> 01:44:57,440 the lake starts to rise, the south arm 2451 01:44:57,440 --> 01:44:58,960 starts to rise, you then get into kind 2452 01:44:58,960 --> 01:45:01,920 of a net export hairline. 2453 01:45:01,920 --> 01:45:04,320 Um, let's see. So, if we kind of just 2454 01:45:04,320 --> 01:45:05,760 walk through some of these ranges, we 2455 01:45:05,760 --> 01:45:07,760 observe for the very wet condition, 2456 01:45:07,760 --> 01:45:09,280 you're getting into some of these around 2457 01:45:09,280 --> 01:45:12,239 100 grams per liter, average around 120 2458 01:45:12,239 --> 01:45:15,199 grams per liter, and for dry warm around 2459 01:45:15,199 --> 01:45:18,080 130 g per liter. There's not a ton of 2460 01:45:18,080 --> 01:45:20,000 difference in salinity around 5 grams 2461 01:45:20,000 --> 01:45:22,560 per liter. In each of these scenarios, 2462 01:45:22,560 --> 01:45:24,560 um, it's really driven by water volume 2463 01:45:24,560 --> 01:45:26,320 and what we kind of stretch in terms of 2464 01:45:26,320 --> 01:45:29,760 a wet or a dry. So that's 2465 01:45:29,760 --> 01:45:32,639 >> anyone any either scenario. I don't see 2466 01:45:32,639 --> 01:45:34,320 a high risk for the branching 2467 01:45:34,320 --> 01:45:35,920 population. I think we could just sit 2468 01:45:35,920 --> 01:45:36,320 here 2469 01:45:36,320 --> 01:45:37,520 >> nor the flies 2470 01:45:37,520 --> 01:45:40,800 >> and nor the flies and check what what we 2471 01:45:40,800 --> 01:45:43,360 think would be the most useful as an 2472 01:45:43,360 --> 01:45:46,159 experiment. I think that's what we were 2473 01:45:46,159 --> 01:45:47,199 indicating. 2474 01:45:47,199 --> 01:45:48,480 >> I'm just trying to 2475 01:45:48,480 --> 01:45:50,400 >> Yeah. Well, that's that's one experiment 2476 01:45:50,400 --> 01:45:52,400 that I don't think we've ever done is 2477 01:45:52,400 --> 01:45:55,600 we've never tried to bridge. 2478 01:45:55,600 --> 01:45:58,080 >> I mean, it's done naturally 2479 01:45:58,080 --> 01:45:59,679 like but like we haven't actually tried 2480 01:45:59,679 --> 01:46:03,669 to go in and 2481 01:46:03,679 --> 01:46:04,159 square 2482 01:46:04,159 --> 01:46:06,800 >> presents like other issues, construction 2483 01:46:06,800 --> 01:46:08,880 issues, removing the giant boulders to 2484 01:46:08,880 --> 01:46:10,400 be placed and things. They're pretty 2485 01:46:10,400 --> 01:46:11,840 large and it's going to be hard to get 2486 01:46:11,840 --> 01:46:13,840 to the center of the firm with a long 2487 01:46:13,840 --> 01:46:15,440 arm and other things, but I think it's 2488 01:46:15,440 --> 01:46:17,679 doable. It's just different than putting 2489 01:46:17,679 --> 01:46:23,350 box in build your way out. 2490 01:46:23,360 --> 01:46:27,119 Um I have a question about timing. So 2491 01:46:27,119 --> 01:46:29,280 just as you said about uh you know 2492 01:46:29,280 --> 01:46:32,800 raising it you know in February versus 2493 01:46:32,800 --> 01:46:34,880 like November you know once you the lake 2494 01:46:34,880 --> 01:46:37,119 starts to inflow start to come in that 2495 01:46:37,119 --> 01:46:38,719 benefit kind of goes away. We actually 2496 01:46:38,719 --> 01:46:40,800 have a loss. It would seem to be like 2497 01:46:40,800 --> 01:46:42,960 right now is we kind of have that head 2498 01:46:42,960 --> 01:46:44,560 difference. The benefit's not going to 2499 01:46:44,560 --> 01:46:46,320 be realized until really later in the 2500 01:46:46,320 --> 01:46:47,679 summer when those things equalize out. 2501 01:46:47,679 --> 01:46:48,480 Am I 2502 01:46:48,480 --> 01:46:50,800 >> mischaracterizing that? Like it's not as 2503 01:46:50,800 --> 01:46:52,480 urgent as like let's do this tomorrow or 2504 01:46:52,480 --> 01:46:52,880 is it 2505 01:46:52,880 --> 01:46:54,800 >> a good question. What is it Ryan or 0.9 2506 01:46:54,800 --> 01:46:55,600 head difference right now? 2507 01:46:55,600 --> 01:46:57,520 >> Yeah. 0.9.8. 2508 01:46:57,520 --> 01:46:59,520 >> It's still about I mean this would be a 2509 01:46:59,520 --> 01:47:01,119 question for some because even though 2510 01:47:01,119 --> 01:47:02,719 there's a head difference, what's the 2511 01:47:02,719 --> 01:47:05,520 pressure differential? It's really not a 2512 01:47:05,520 --> 01:47:07,760 ton of head differential especially for 2513 01:47:07,760 --> 01:47:08,880 springtime. Yeah. 2514 01:47:08,880 --> 01:47:10,960 >> Um and the fact is we have seen net 2515 01:47:10,960 --> 01:47:14,159 import during previous June. And so from 2516 01:47:14,159 --> 01:47:15,679 what m from what I've looked at 2517 01:47:15,679 --> 01:47:18,480 previously, as soon as the the south arm 2518 01:47:18,480 --> 01:47:20,800 kind of stops increasing and that you're 2519 01:47:20,800 --> 01:47:22,400 still getting flow into the north, you 2520 01:47:22,400 --> 01:47:24,880 get a good drive from the north to the 2521 01:47:24,880 --> 01:47:26,960 south, it really starts to equalize. 2522 01:47:26,960 --> 01:47:28,480 >> Okay. And then another thing I just 2523 01:47:28,480 --> 01:47:29,920 wanted to pose to the group because I 2524 01:47:29,920 --> 01:47:32,000 think that we have a little bit of extra 2525 01:47:32,000 --> 01:47:35,280 flexibility built into the the statue um 2526 01:47:35,280 --> 01:47:37,440 from the special session. So we now have 2527 01:47:37,440 --> 01:47:39,280 18 months that we could look at to like 2528 01:47:39,280 --> 01:47:41,679 raise and lower this. And so I think 2529 01:47:41,679 --> 01:47:44,639 that um you know like thinking through 2530 01:47:44,639 --> 01:47:46,159 this is you know I know that normally 2531 01:47:46,159 --> 01:47:47,920 when we lower the or when we raise the 2532 01:47:47,920 --> 01:47:49,280 burm and then we lower it we're like 2533 01:47:49,280 --> 01:47:51,679 also then pushing and exporting you know 2534 01:47:51,679 --> 01:47:52,800 everything we collect we're going to 2535 01:47:52,800 --> 01:47:54,639 have this huge flux to the north arm. 2536 01:47:54,639 --> 01:47:56,159 And I don't know that this necessarily 2537 01:47:56,159 --> 01:47:58,239 like captures all of that, you know, 2538 01:47:58,239 --> 01:47:59,760 during that the course of that, but what 2539 01:47:59,760 --> 01:48:01,600 if, you know, if we thought that we were 2540 01:48:01,600 --> 01:48:02,880 going to be in another drought year, 2541 01:48:02,880 --> 01:48:05,440 what if we, you know, impounded that, 2542 01:48:05,440 --> 01:48:06,800 you know, for like a full season, like 2543 01:48:06,800 --> 01:48:08,400 an evaporative season, waited till 2544 01:48:08,400 --> 01:48:12,159 November of 2027 to lower it and then 2545 01:48:12,159 --> 01:48:13,600 released it to the point where you could 2546 01:48:13,600 --> 01:48:15,600 like superize levels and then raise it 2547 01:48:15,600 --> 01:48:17,040 in February. you've gotten a dynamic 2548 01:48:17,040 --> 01:48:19,760 where you're like trying to maximize, 2549 01:48:19,760 --> 01:48:21,760 you know, imports and exports in the 2550 01:48:21,760 --> 01:48:23,600 most beneficial ways, but also 2551 01:48:23,600 --> 01:48:25,600 maximizing benefits of like, you know, 2552 01:48:25,600 --> 01:48:27,679 things like microbialite exposure, you 2553 01:48:27,679 --> 01:48:29,679 know, dust hotspots, all the things that 2554 01:48:29,679 --> 01:48:31,920 we're like trying to manage for. 2555 01:48:31,920 --> 01:48:33,440 >> I know that's probably way too far out 2556 01:48:33,440 --> 01:48:36,719 to look at the the crystal ball that you 2557 01:48:36,719 --> 01:48:38,639 access to, but I think it's just things 2558 01:48:38,639 --> 01:48:40,400 that we should be thinking about is like 2559 01:48:40,400 --> 01:48:42,239 what do we do in the spring of next year 2560 01:48:42,239 --> 01:48:43,040 as well? 2561 01:48:43,040 --> 01:48:44,960 >> Exactly. Right. And like if you raise 2562 01:48:44,960 --> 01:48:46,480 the firm, the way I'm thinking about it 2563 01:48:46,480 --> 01:48:48,480 is you kind of set yourself up, well I 2564 01:48:48,480 --> 01:48:50,719 guess not necessarily, but you kind of 2565 01:48:50,719 --> 01:48:52,400 potentially set yourself up for an 2566 01:48:52,400 --> 01:48:54,960 export situation. So even if you like 2567 01:48:54,960 --> 01:48:57,440 hug these higher salinities, like we 2568 01:48:57,440 --> 01:48:59,199 know we can export salt and other things 2569 01:48:59,199 --> 01:49:01,600 really effectively, you know. So 2570 01:49:01,600 --> 01:49:04,159 >> in my and from what I observe, we follow 2571 01:49:04,159 --> 01:49:06,159 observed, it's a one, it's a we can 2572 01:49:06,159 --> 01:49:09,280 create a valve in which we can lower and 2573 01:49:09,280 --> 01:49:10,800 so you're right. thinking about all 2574 01:49:10,800 --> 01:49:13,679 these different lags and levers, but 2575 01:49:13,679 --> 01:49:15,440 this could be complicated. And then it 2576 01:49:15,440 --> 01:49:17,360 is like what should we what should 2577 01:49:17,360 --> 01:49:21,920 nitrogen do? What should XY Z A B C be 2578 01:49:21,920 --> 01:49:24,080 labile are the species that are 2579 01:49:24,080 --> 01:49:26,400 biologically available to you know in 2580 01:49:26,400 --> 01:49:30,950 salt water 2581 01:49:30,960 --> 01:49:35,040 bile with nitrate or nitrate try to be 2582 01:49:35,040 --> 01:49:37,119 my sense is that they're very very 2583 01:49:37,119 --> 01:49:38,480 taking up because they're very hard to 2584 01:49:38,480 --> 01:49:41,679 measure and many many times it's low. So 2585 01:49:41,679 --> 01:49:44,960 what we're moving back in 2586 01:49:44,960 --> 01:49:47,679 are microbes that can cycle or what 2587 01:49:47,679 --> 01:49:49,920 we're moving back in is nitrogen. In 2588 01:49:49,920 --> 01:49:51,679 what form? 2589 01:49:51,679 --> 01:49:53,679 Is it ammonia that needs to be 2590 01:49:53,679 --> 01:49:56,719 processed? Is it like what what exact 2591 01:49:56,719 --> 01:49:59,040 what exactly is the source of nitrogen? 2592 01:49:59,040 --> 01:50:01,840 Do we have 2593 01:50:01,840 --> 01:50:04,239 opening the breach? 2594 01:50:04,239 --> 01:50:06,560 What we're predicting that nitrogen will 2595 01:50:06,560 --> 01:50:09,600 come back in just based on this nebulous 2596 01:50:09,600 --> 01:50:11,840 nitrogen. But where's the nitrogen 2597 01:50:11,840 --> 01:50:14,320 coming from? And in what species? I 2598 01:50:14,320 --> 01:50:17,679 don't mean species of bacteria. 2599 01:50:17,679 --> 01:50:20,800 >> I mean species of nitrogen comp. Yeah, 2600 01:50:20,800 --> 01:50:22,320 we can look at that 2601 01:50:22,320 --> 01:50:24,239 >> in detail. I'm just curious. 2602 01:50:24,239 --> 01:50:26,080 >> And I think that like these questions, I 2603 01:50:26,080 --> 01:50:27,360 think this is where, you know, if we did 2604 01:50:27,360 --> 01:50:28,800 this for five months, 2605 01:50:28,800 --> 01:50:30,480 >> we would learn a lot and we would also 2606 01:50:30,480 --> 01:50:32,000 learn a lot about how much salt we can 2607 01:50:32,000 --> 01:50:33,920 bring back and what the net flux would 2608 01:50:33,920 --> 01:50:35,520 be when we lower the BM again. and it 2609 01:50:35,520 --> 01:50:36,880 would kind of let let us prove up on 2610 01:50:36,880 --> 01:50:39,280 this idea that we can 2611 01:50:39,280 --> 01:50:40,880 mess with the salt balance either 2612 01:50:40,880 --> 01:50:42,800 direction because right now I'm always a 2613 01:50:42,800 --> 01:50:44,480 little nervous that like if we start 2614 01:50:44,480 --> 01:50:46,320 coming up past it and we'll have a great 2615 01:50:46,320 --> 01:50:47,920 way to bring salt back and so we need to 2616 01:50:47,920 --> 01:50:49,360 get up a method of like keeping 2617 01:50:49,360 --> 01:50:52,000 ourselves right in the right in that 2618 01:50:52,000 --> 01:50:53,600 good spot on the iceman's crew. Right. 2619 01:50:53,600 --> 01:50:54,080 >> Exactly. 2620 01:50:54,080 --> 01:50:56,800 >> Does the state have the funding to do 2621 01:50:56,800 --> 01:50:59,119 these extra experiments? 2622 01:50:59,119 --> 01:51:01,280 >> Um but we have some funding and we can 2623 01:51:01,280 --> 01:51:03,199 always ask the commissioner office to 2624 01:51:03,199 --> 01:51:05,040 dig deeper into their pockets. I'm 2625 01:51:05,040 --> 01:51:07,280 getting pretty good at that. So, 2626 01:51:07,280 --> 01:51:09,280 >> whatever that nebulous person is. 2627 01:51:09,280 --> 01:51:13,040 >> Yeah. Is the state in favor of doing an 2628 01:51:13,040 --> 01:51:14,800 experiment like this? 2629 01:51:14,800 --> 01:51:16,960 >> Well, I think the I mean, when you say 2630 01:51:16,960 --> 01:51:18,719 state, I'm I can speak on behalf of 2631 01:51:18,719 --> 01:51:20,320 forestry and state lands. I think we 2632 01:51:20,320 --> 01:51:22,159 really want to understand, you know, how 2633 01:51:22,159 --> 01:51:23,920 we do best damage to this berm. I mean, 2634 01:51:23,920 --> 01:51:26,320 we, you know, like we're we're tasked 2635 01:51:26,320 --> 01:51:28,000 with several different public interests 2636 01:51:28,000 --> 01:51:31,840 such as like, you know, the the 2637 01:51:31,840 --> 01:51:34,480 brine shrimp, flies, recreation, all 2638 01:51:34,480 --> 01:51:35,760 these other things. So, we're we're 2639 01:51:35,760 --> 01:51:38,480 constantly, you know, trying to be 2640 01:51:38,480 --> 01:51:40,239 testing what we can do in this this 2641 01:51:40,239 --> 01:51:41,920 realm because we can't really our 2642 01:51:41,920 --> 01:51:43,599 division is need to decide like what 2643 01:51:43,599 --> 01:51:45,760 kind of influence we get to create. So, 2644 01:51:45,760 --> 01:51:47,920 this is like one tool where we can kind 2645 01:51:47,920 --> 01:51:49,920 of have some influence on what the 2646 01:51:49,920 --> 01:51:51,199 different outcomes are. So I would say 2647 01:51:51,199 --> 01:51:53,199 like our division is very interested and 2648 01:51:53,199 --> 01:51:55,840 we would push for you know like having 2649 01:51:55,840 --> 01:51:58,159 information that allows us to determine 2650 01:51:58,159 --> 01:52:00,480 like what is possible but I think the 2651 01:52:00,480 --> 01:52:02,639 state in general not speaking for 2652 01:52:02,639 --> 01:52:04,800 everybody I think the state in general 2653 01:52:04,800 --> 01:52:06,239 looks at this as being one of the most 2654 01:52:06,239 --> 01:52:09,040 effective tools that we have in you know 2655 01:52:09,040 --> 01:52:10,639 being able to manage different outcomes. 2656 01:52:10,639 --> 01:52:13,199 So I think you know I think they'd be 2657 01:52:13,199 --> 01:52:14,800 very interested in understanding what's 2658 01:52:14,800 --> 01:52:17,520 possible but but also like with some 2659 01:52:17,520 --> 01:52:20,400 side guards especially with being low 2660 01:52:20,400 --> 01:52:26,080 risk now and not be in a situation 2661 01:52:26,080 --> 01:52:30,229 high pressure. 2662 01:52:30,239 --> 01:52:33,760 Also we're we have a mandate at 4190 to 2663 01:52:33,760 --> 01:52:36,159 raise the BB. So like yeah, 2664 01:52:36,159 --> 01:52:37,599 >> you know, this year we're probably going 2665 01:52:37,599 --> 01:52:39,119 to have to raise the burb in November 2666 01:52:39,119 --> 01:52:41,440 anyway based on what the statute says. 2667 01:52:41,440 --> 01:52:43,920 So I think to prepare for the fact that 2668 01:52:43,920 --> 01:52:45,360 we're going to be exporting salt come 2669 01:52:45,360 --> 01:52:46,560 November, no matter what, we're not 2670 01:52:46,560 --> 01:52:48,960 going to have the option to allow for, 2671 01:52:48,960 --> 01:52:51,520 you know, any imports of nitrogen or 2672 01:52:51,520 --> 01:52:53,840 salt. My my inclination is like to 2673 01:52:53,840 --> 01:52:55,360 prepare for that and then maybe even 2674 01:52:55,360 --> 01:52:57,520 maximize the benefits we get. You know, 2675 01:52:57,520 --> 01:52:59,199 for other purposes, maybe what we should 2676 01:52:59,199 --> 01:53:01,040 be thinking about is let's let's import 2677 01:53:01,040 --> 01:53:02,159 some stuff because we know we can get 2678 01:53:02,159 --> 01:53:04,639 rid of it. if we air on the side of like 2679 01:53:04,639 --> 01:53:06,320 too much like it's gonna be it have to 2680 01:53:06,320 --> 01:53:08,239 be a really damn bad year for us not to 2681 01:53:08,239 --> 01:53:11,920 be able to you know what we need to so 2682 01:53:11,920 --> 01:53:13,920 >> that's my inclination but I also there's 2683 01:53:13,920 --> 01:53:15,840 a lot of smart people in service that's 2684 01:53:15,840 --> 01:53:17,520 why that's why we have these 2685 01:53:17,520 --> 01:53:19,520 conversations 2686 01:53:19,520 --> 01:53:22,239 and this is not a driver but I do want 2687 01:53:22,239 --> 01:53:25,599 to highlight the fact there are our 2688 01:53:25,599 --> 01:53:27,520 seance 2689 01:53:27,520 --> 01:53:30,080 our 2690 01:53:30,080 --> 01:53:33,119 permit where you 2691 01:53:33,119 --> 01:53:34,719 minimal return is not going to be 2692 01:53:34,719 --> 01:53:37,760 allowed with 15% 2693 01:53:37,760 --> 01:53:39,360 >> if we're if we're doing if we're trying 2694 01:53:39,360 --> 01:53:40,719 to solve for something else. 2695 01:53:40,719 --> 01:53:41,199 >> Yeah. 2696 01:53:41,199 --> 01:53:44,000 >> Um you know I' I'd want to consider some 2697 01:53:44,000 --> 01:53:45,920 flexibility on that since we're just 2698 01:53:45,920 --> 01:53:48,560 kind of an artificial we're creating 2699 01:53:48,560 --> 01:53:50,320 management action. You're exposed to 2700 01:53:50,320 --> 01:53:51,040 natural conditions. 2701 01:53:51,040 --> 01:53:52,400 >> Can you remind me again on the mineral 2702 01:53:52,400 --> 01:53:54,080 repair? Does that is that all based off 2703 01:53:54,080 --> 01:53:56,880 of a point in time or is it like a 2704 01:53:56,880 --> 01:53:59,280 certain date that the solidity has to be 2705 01:53:59,280 --> 01:54:02,639 at 15% or above or like We want to the 2706 01:54:02,639 --> 01:54:03,440 time of discharge. 2707 01:54:03,440 --> 01:54:04,800 >> The way I read the rule is when it's 2708 01:54:04,800 --> 01:54:06,480 above 15% return. 2709 01:54:06,480 --> 01:54:07,679 >> Okay. So, 2710 01:54:07,679 --> 01:54:09,199 >> so you guys normally do your mineral 2711 01:54:09,199 --> 01:54:10,960 return though in the spring, right? 2712 01:54:10,960 --> 01:54:13,840 >> We do it from November through April. 2713 01:54:13,840 --> 01:54:14,880 >> Okay. 2714 01:54:14,880 --> 01:54:18,159 >> It's based on June 15, right? 2715 01:54:18,159 --> 01:54:20,239 >> That's elevation. Um 2716 01:54:20,239 --> 01:54:23,360 >> yeah cuz I like to in in my mind this is 2717 01:54:23,360 --> 01:54:24,800 one of those things where like if that 2718 01:54:24,800 --> 01:54:27,440 was not captured well in the rule and we 2719 01:54:27,440 --> 01:54:29,119 you know we obviously we all discuss 2720 01:54:29,119 --> 01:54:30,800 this when we drafted when that rule is 2721 01:54:30,800 --> 01:54:33,199 drafted but if there was some need to 2722 01:54:33,199 --> 01:54:35,520 modify the rule to reflect the fact that 2723 01:54:35,520 --> 01:54:37,760 maybe that should be considered you know 2724 01:54:37,760 --> 01:54:40,239 based off of like spring salinities if 2725 01:54:40,239 --> 01:54:41,280 we're going to be doing these things 2726 01:54:41,280 --> 01:54:42,800 because like I think that the I think 2727 01:54:42,800 --> 01:54:44,080 that's fair to consider that the 2728 01:54:44,080 --> 01:54:46,800 management of the firm shouldn't really 2729 01:54:46,800 --> 01:54:48,080 affect how you're going to do your 2730 01:54:48,080 --> 01:54:50,000 discharge then honestly if we're If this 2731 01:54:50,000 --> 01:54:52,719 goal of the state is to import salt at 2732 01:54:52,719 --> 01:54:53,920 some certain time and then we're 2733 01:54:53,920 --> 01:54:56,560 limiting your discharge of salt, it's a 2734 01:54:56,560 --> 01:54:58,000 little counter to so it sounds to me 2735 01:54:58,000 --> 01:55:00,880 like maybe we need to think through 2736 01:55:00,880 --> 01:55:02,960 the rule was set up, you know, based on 2737 01:55:02,960 --> 01:55:05,599 information we had two years ago. 2738 01:55:05,599 --> 01:55:07,280 >> And I think we all we all did our best 2739 01:55:07,280 --> 01:55:08,800 to try to make something that work for 2740 01:55:08,800 --> 01:55:10,800 industry and then also to balance things 2741 01:55:10,800 --> 01:55:12,960 like but I think that's why rules can be 2742 01:55:12,960 --> 01:55:14,320 modified through administrative 2743 01:55:14,320 --> 01:55:16,239 processes 2744 01:55:16,239 --> 01:55:18,239 make that change if we do. Well, and the 2745 01:55:18,239 --> 01:55:20,000 rule is just going to thread through our 2746 01:55:20,000 --> 01:55:21,760 updates permit which is coming up for 2747 01:55:21,760 --> 01:55:26,080 renewal. So, you know, we can build in 2748 01:55:26,080 --> 01:55:27,520 some flexibility for, you know, 2749 01:55:27,520 --> 01:55:30,480 purposeful management actions that 2750 01:55:30,480 --> 01:55:31,920 not not trying to speak on behalf of 2751 01:55:31,920 --> 01:55:33,920 another agency, but I would assume that 2752 01:55:33,920 --> 01:55:36,560 water quality would be like looking at 2753 01:55:36,560 --> 01:55:39,520 the rule. There's a real 2754 01:55:39,520 --> 01:55:41,599 issue with that. I know Candace is 2755 01:55:41,599 --> 01:55:43,520 always looking for renovations and so I 2756 01:55:43,520 --> 01:55:49,030 would assume he gets to 2757 01:55:49,040 --> 01:55:51,119 And you know those those who attended 2758 01:55:51,119 --> 01:55:53,440 the issues form I presented when the 2759 01:55:53,440 --> 01:55:55,760 lake is below 4194 like we're not 2760 01:55:55,760 --> 01:55:57,199 operating the west pond right 2761 01:55:57,199 --> 01:55:58,560 >> just because we're kind of meeting our 2762 01:55:58,560 --> 01:56:00,159 heads against the wall evaporation 2763 01:56:00,159 --> 01:56:01,199 exceeds pumping rate 2764 01:56:01,199 --> 01:56:01,599 >> right 2765 01:56:01,599 --> 01:56:03,840 >> so we're less sensitive than we were 2766 01:56:03,840 --> 01:56:07,520 like in 22 on on north elevation we just 2767 01:56:07,520 --> 01:56:11,280 pulled point which has a a very low 2768 01:56:11,280 --> 01:56:14,800 intake so lake elevation isn't isn't the 2769 01:56:14,800 --> 01:56:16,400 primary 2770 01:56:16,400 --> 01:56:17,520 I just wanted to raise 2771 01:56:17,520 --> 01:56:19,360 >> Well, I just because I think we're 2772 01:56:19,360 --> 01:56:21,679 probably at two minutes away from being 2773 01:56:21,679 --> 01:56:23,040 out of time here. What do you have, 2774 01:56:23,040 --> 01:56:25,280 Jeff? When's our next meeting in June? 2775 01:56:25,280 --> 01:56:26,560 >> June 25th. 2776 01:56:26,560 --> 01:56:28,320 >> So, we have a little bit of time. I'm 2777 01:56:28,320 --> 01:56:30,480 just wondering if it makes sense just 2778 01:56:30,480 --> 01:56:32,320 because of the, you know, the benefits 2779 01:56:32,320 --> 01:56:33,840 that we're going to receive from opening 2780 01:56:33,840 --> 01:56:36,480 the firm. If it makes sense to try to 2781 01:56:36,480 --> 01:56:38,080 find a time that's sooner than that to 2782 01:56:38,080 --> 01:56:39,599 be able to just do any of the last 2783 01:56:39,599 --> 01:56:41,280 minute homework we want to do and then 2784 01:56:41,280 --> 01:56:42,800 try to make a decision soon. I don't 2785 01:56:42,800 --> 01:56:44,239 know that we even need to like fully 2786 01:56:44,239 --> 01:56:46,320 convene in person. I I wonder if this is 2787 01:56:46,320 --> 01:56:47,440 something where we could just have a 2788 01:56:47,440 --> 01:56:50,239 quick, you know, meet in person's always 2789 01:56:50,239 --> 01:56:51,679 better in my opinion, but if we even 2790 01:56:51,679 --> 01:56:53,760 needed to hop online for half an hour, 2791 01:56:53,760 --> 01:56:55,599 run through some, you know, any further 2792 01:56:55,599 --> 01:56:57,280 analysis that we think is necessary, if 2793 01:56:57,280 --> 01:56:58,480 there's any additional homework that 2794 01:56:58,480 --> 01:57:00,960 needs to be done, and then try to get to 2795 01:57:00,960 --> 01:57:03,760 brass tax and get a recommendation or 2796 01:57:03,760 --> 01:57:05,920 >> I don't think we need another meeting. I 2797 01:57:05,920 --> 01:57:08,239 think we could take a vote and then if 2798 01:57:08,239 --> 01:57:10,800 the vote is mixed, maybe we need another 2799 01:57:10,800 --> 01:57:13,840 meeting, but I think the data that we 2800 01:57:13,840 --> 01:57:17,040 have on hand is not going to change 2801 01:57:17,040 --> 01:57:18,560 drastically 2802 01:57:18,560 --> 01:57:20,159 >> um 2803 01:57:20,159 --> 01:57:21,119 in that time. 2804 01:57:21,119 --> 01:57:23,280 >> Yeah, Bill had Bill, you had your hand 2805 01:57:23,280 --> 01:57:24,560 up, too. 2806 01:57:24,560 --> 01:57:27,360 >> Well, just I'm a little confused because 2807 01:57:27,360 --> 01:57:28,800 Christine's analysis, very nice 2808 01:57:28,800 --> 01:57:31,119 analysis, Christine. It basically says, 2809 01:57:31,119 --> 01:57:32,880 "Look, we're at the mercy of climate 2810 01:57:32,880 --> 01:57:35,360 weather and we can tweak it, but I'm not 2811 01:57:35,360 --> 01:57:37,119 even sure we can definitively measure 2812 01:57:37,119 --> 01:57:38,800 the benefit 2813 01:57:38,800 --> 01:57:45,920 uh between, you know, the options." And so my take-home is look, we wait and 2814 01:57:45,920 --> 01:57:48,159 see what happens because it's really all 2815 01:57:48,159 --> 01:57:50,800 dependent on how the weather how the 2816 01:57:50,800 --> 01:57:53,840 inflows evolve this year. 2817 01:57:53,840 --> 01:57:55,440 >> Well, we have a short window between 2818 01:57:55,440 --> 01:57:58,000 June and November. Right. And and I 2819 01:57:58,000 --> 01:57:59,920 think the other I think another thing 2820 01:57:59,920 --> 01:58:03,520 that Ben brought up is that 2821 01:58:03,520 --> 01:58:06,320 changing the BM now allows us to 2822 01:58:06,320 --> 01:58:10,159 understand how we can move salt. So the 2823 01:58:10,159 --> 01:58:13,199 you know when we look at your scenario 2824 01:58:13,199 --> 01:58:16,880 results next for next year our salinity 2825 01:58:16,880 --> 01:58:20,639 is okay. Um there's not much risk on the 2826 01:58:20,639 --> 01:58:22,880 salinity standpoint. We may not be able 2827 01:58:22,880 --> 01:58:27,119 to measure the nitrogen change but we 2828 01:58:27,119 --> 01:58:29,199 can measure flux. Yes, exactly. I was 2829 01:58:29,199 --> 01:58:31,040 gonna say that we can't we won't we will 2830 01:58:31,040 --> 01:58:32,639 not be able to measure in the south arm. 2831 01:58:32,639 --> 01:58:34,080 We will be able to measure the change in 2832 01:58:34,080 --> 01:58:35,760 flux at the breach. We'll be able to 2833 01:58:35,760 --> 01:58:37,199 measure those concentrations. We have 2834 01:58:37,199 --> 01:58:39,760 the discharge. We can measure that. 2835 01:58:39,760 --> 01:58:41,920 >> Just to go back, I think we're know 2836 01:58:41,920 --> 01:58:44,800 we're going to be raising the bum that 2837 01:58:44,800 --> 01:58:46,400 it's a shallow like we don't even have 2838 01:58:46,400 --> 01:58:47,920 an option. We don't even have a meeting 2839 01:58:47,920 --> 01:58:49,040 for that. We're just going to be raising 2840 01:58:49,040 --> 01:58:50,159 the BM. Sure. 2841 01:58:50,159 --> 01:58:53,199 >> Do we want to prepare by bringing back, 2842 01:58:53,199 --> 01:58:57,199 you know, some some nutrients and some salt? I think that's maybe just 2843 01:58:57,199 --> 01:58:58,960 like in my mind, it just seems like 2844 01:58:58,960 --> 01:59:01,599 there's not a whole lot of issues doing 2845 01:59:01,599 --> 01:59:04,709 so. 2846 01:59:04,719 --> 01:59:05,760 » Take a vote. 2847 01:59:05,760 --> 01:59:07,520 >> It's just a cost benefit analysis. 2848 01:59:07,520 --> 01:59:09,280 What's it cost to do that lowering of 2849 01:59:09,280 --> 01:59:11,280 the burm in the meantime versus the 2850 01:59:11,280 --> 01:59:12,719 benefit? 2851 01:59:12,719 --> 01:59:15,280 >> Yeah, it's probably free to be honest. I 2852 01:59:15,280 --> 01:59:17,599 has been really cooperative and I guess 2853 01:59:17,599 --> 01:59:19,040 will be part of the equation and and you 2854 01:59:19,040 --> 01:59:20,560 know again the solidity committee makes 2855 01:59:20,560 --> 01:59:22,239 a recommendation. So if you all 2856 01:59:22,239 --> 01:59:23,840 recommend to our division of water 2857 01:59:23,840 --> 01:59:26,080 quality that we should lower the BB and 2858 01:59:26,080 --> 01:59:27,360 see if we can transfer that back. We'll 2859 01:59:27,360 --> 01:59:28,800 go do our work and see if we can get the 2860 01:59:28,800 --> 01:59:30,560 railroad in and you know if it's cost 2861 01:59:30,560 --> 01:59:32,159 prohibitive or if it's going to be too 2862 01:59:32,159 --> 01:59:33,679 hard to be able to get a long boom out 2863 01:59:33,679 --> 01:59:35,199 we could come back and you know have 2864 01:59:35,199 --> 01:59:36,560 that discussion. There may be some 2865 01:59:36,560 --> 01:59:38,400 issues with it. To be honest we haven't 2866 01:59:38,400 --> 01:59:39,599 like you said we haven't lowered the 2867 01:59:39,599 --> 01:59:40,960 verb yet. So 2868 01:59:40,960 --> 01:59:43,199 >> one elevation. 2869 01:59:43,199 --> 01:59:45,040 >> Well, did you do your modeling based on 2870 01:59:45,040 --> 01:59:46,080 4187? 2871 01:59:46,080 --> 01:59:47,760 >> I just I assume that the cross-section 2872 01:59:47,760 --> 01:59:50,080 is the same as it was pre monthly 2873 01:59:50,080 --> 01:59:53,440 >> was. Oh, that was 4183. 2874 01:59:53,440 --> 01:59:56,159 >> So we raised the 87 the first 2875 01:59:56,159 --> 01:59:59,920 >> increment at 87. I believe 2876 01:59:59,920 --> 02:00:03,920 a lot of money did. Yeah. Did all unless 2877 02:00:03,920 --> 02:00:07,040 there was a Yeah. So that might so there 2878 02:00:07,040 --> 02:00:09,199 may be like I mean there may be some 2879 02:00:09,199 --> 02:00:10,719 real issues trying to figure out how we 2880 02:00:10,719 --> 02:00:12,560 get it down to 4183. That's going to be 2881 02:00:12,560 --> 02:00:14,239 hard for a piece of equipment to do 2882 02:00:14,239 --> 02:00:16,000 that. So we'll have to see what the 2883 02:00:16,000 --> 02:00:17,440 possibilities are. 2884 02:00:17,440 --> 02:00:20,320 >> Well I think I mean I guess I want to 2885 02:00:20,320 --> 02:00:22,960 ask if someone wants to make a motion 2886 02:00:22,960 --> 02:00:24,320 for 2887 02:00:24,320 --> 02:00:26,639 >> well to what are we going to vote 2888 02:00:26,639 --> 02:00:29,119 >> to vote on? 2889 02:00:29,119 --> 02:00:34,159 No, but I guess I'm bringing up your motion to vote and saying, okay, 2890 02:00:34,159 --> 02:00:35,760 does somebody want to make a motion to 2891 02:00:35,760 --> 02:00:36,880 vote upon? 2892 02:00:36,880 --> 02:00:37,360 >> Okay. 2893 02:00:37,360 --> 02:00:38,639 >> Um 2894 02:00:38,639 --> 02:00:40,960 >> because I I think what 2895 02:00:40,960 --> 02:00:42,719 >> what we're hearing is that we have an 2896 02:00:42,719 --> 02:00:46,400 opportunity to run an experiment um 2897 02:00:46,400 --> 02:00:48,880 where we would remove the burm, we would 2898 02:00:48,880 --> 02:00:52,880 be able to test the birectional flow. 2899 02:00:52,880 --> 02:00:54,800 What happens to the salt flux? What 2900 02:00:54,800 --> 02:00:57,360 happens to the nitrogen flux during this 2901 02:00:57,360 --> 02:00:58,639 five month period? 2902 02:00:58,639 --> 02:01:01,280 >> What was the burm elevation when we 2903 02:01:01,280 --> 02:01:07,040 >> when we first opened up the brereech? 83 2904 02:01:07,040 --> 02:01:09,280 model was based off. 2905 02:01:09,280 --> 02:01:12,239 >> So we'd be coming down quite a bit. So 2906 02:01:12,239 --> 02:01:15,199 Christine, this these scenarios 2907 02:01:15,199 --> 02:01:18,239 basically lowering the burn 2908 02:01:18,239 --> 02:01:19,280 that 2909 02:01:19,280 --> 02:01:21,520 >> um 2910 02:01:21,520 --> 02:01:25,920 no um the flux estimate of prem like 2911 02:01:25,920 --> 02:01:27,520 when I when I think about okay when I 2912 02:01:27,520 --> 02:01:30,000 estimate these numbers and what we get 2913 02:01:30,000 --> 02:01:32,080 back it's really using data that were 2914 02:01:32,080 --> 02:01:35,119 collected from 2018 to 2022 which is 2915 02:01:35,119 --> 02:01:36,960 kind of a pre-burn modification 2916 02:01:36,960 --> 02:01:39,679 cross-section and so yes in a sense yes 2917 02:01:39,679 --> 02:01:42,239 I'm assuming that we get that ex that in 2918 02:01:42,239 --> 02:01:46,000 reality which I mean there's there's the burl like the bottom 2919 02:01:46,000 --> 02:01:48,880 elevation and also the sides I mean but 2920 02:01:48,880 --> 02:01:54,790 I guess that's less of a 2921 02:01:54,800 --> 02:01:57,840 » make it worse 2922 02:01:57,840 --> 02:02:01,830 lower 2923 02:02:01,840 --> 02:02:03,599 I mean right now I think we're already 2924 02:02:03,599 --> 02:02:05,440 seeing some north to south flow based on 2925 02:02:05,440 --> 02:02:07,520 the anything we lowered I think would 2926 02:02:07,520 --> 02:02:10,960 have the same wouldn't be as much of a 2927 02:02:10,960 --> 02:02:13,599 greater 2928 02:02:13,599 --> 02:02:16,320 >> a lesser flux of nitrogen 2929 02:02:16,320 --> 02:02:18,639 and salt back into the south, but it 2930 02:02:18,639 --> 02:02:20,000 would still be more than what it is 2931 02:02:20,000 --> 02:02:20,800 today. 2932 02:02:20,800 --> 02:02:22,239 >> Based on the fact that we're we are 2933 02:02:22,239 --> 02:02:23,599 seeing some return, 2934 02:02:23,599 --> 02:02:25,040 >> this is where it is. Okay, 2935 02:02:25,040 --> 02:02:26,639 >> for the record, this is the precise 2936 02:02:26,639 --> 02:02:28,400 reason that we wanted to have something 2937 02:02:28,400 --> 02:02:30,719 besides just a rock structure because 2938 02:02:30,719 --> 02:02:32,320 the challenge of lowering the BM or 2939 02:02:32,320 --> 02:02:33,280 getting out and doing these 2940 02:02:33,280 --> 02:02:35,440 modifications both ways. Like it's easy 2941 02:02:35,440 --> 02:02:37,360 to pile rocks, but it's not so easy to 2942 02:02:37,360 --> 02:02:39,199 move these rocks or figure this out. 2943 02:02:39,199 --> 02:02:41,520 this is going to be like maybe not free 2944 02:02:41,520 --> 02:02:42,639 because I don't think people will have 2945 02:02:42,639 --> 02:02:44,000 the right equipment to do something like 2946 02:02:44,000 --> 02:02:46,159 this. So this is where having like a 2947 02:02:46,159 --> 02:02:47,280 little bit more of an intelligence 2948 02:02:47,280 --> 02:02:48,719 structure, you know, come into play. 2949 02:02:48,719 --> 02:02:50,800 Just for the record too, we are still 2950 02:02:50,800 --> 02:02:52,080 looking at different options, but we 2951 02:02:52,080 --> 02:02:53,599 want to do some geotech to better 2952 02:02:53,599 --> 02:02:55,440 refine, you know, whether what's 2953 02:02:55,440 --> 02:02:58,080 possible just because it's important to 2954 02:02:58,080 --> 02:03:00,560 be able to manage both directions. 2955 02:03:00,560 --> 02:03:03,040 >> Would the motion include a consideration 2956 02:03:03,040 --> 02:03:07,040 for the U for what Joe brought up the 2957 02:03:07,040 --> 02:03:10,639 issue with discharge from mineral 2958 02:03:10,639 --> 02:03:13,280 companies? 2959 02:03:13,280 --> 02:03:15,920 Well, I think so. You're saying like we 2960 02:03:15,920 --> 02:03:18,639 would need to do some analysis about 2961 02:03:18,639 --> 02:03:20,320 where we think the solidity would end up 2962 02:03:20,320 --> 02:03:21,599 to see if it's going to affect. 2963 02:03:21,599 --> 02:03:23,920 >> No, what I'm saying is that if we make a 2964 02:03:23,920 --> 02:03:26,880 motion to lower the burm, but include in 2965 02:03:26,880 --> 02:03:28,960 that motion that forestry, fire, and 2966 02:03:28,960 --> 02:03:32,000 state lands would consider the issues 2967 02:03:32,000 --> 02:03:33,840 related to discharge. 2968 02:03:33,840 --> 02:03:35,599 >> I don't think we can do that in a motion 2969 02:03:35,599 --> 02:03:36,719 from the solidity committee because 2970 02:03:36,719 --> 02:03:38,239 that's in the rule. So we would have to 2971 02:03:38,239 --> 02:03:40,560 go back and work with water quality to 2972 02:03:40,560 --> 02:03:42,239 modify their uppiece permit or their 2973 02:03:42,239 --> 02:03:44,639 rule to do that. So I think that this 2974 02:03:44,639 --> 02:03:47,040 decision has to be based on what we 2975 02:03:47,040 --> 02:03:49,040 think we need to do today and then if we 2976 02:03:49,040 --> 02:03:51,520 need to look at rule changes that would 2977 02:03:51,520 --> 02:03:55,360 be something Jim got to take back to his 2978 02:03:55,360 --> 02:03:58,000 figure. 2979 02:03:58,000 --> 02:03:59,599 But I I would also say that I would 2980 02:03:59,599 --> 02:04:01,840 think that the you know if we were to 2981 02:04:01,840 --> 02:04:05,599 get up to the 15% and is it percent or 2982 02:04:05,599 --> 02:04:08,639 >> 150 grams per liter because I mean we're 2983 02:04:08,639 --> 02:04:11,280 just like I guess worst case we're like 2984 02:04:11,280 --> 02:04:13,040 trying to we're maybe getting into that 2985 02:04:13,040 --> 02:04:15,840 scenario or I guess 2986 02:04:15,840 --> 02:04:18,000 >> well I guess actually most cases 2987 02:04:18,000 --> 02:04:19,679 >> but we're going to be barely edging on 2988 02:04:19,679 --> 02:04:23,199 that right and and come November once 2989 02:04:23,199 --> 02:04:24,800 the burmis race we're going to start to 2990 02:04:24,800 --> 02:04:26,400 see that sort of drop as we get fresh 2991 02:04:26,400 --> 02:04:28,800 water in from the the runoff that at 2992 02:04:28,800 --> 02:04:30,080 that point it'll be pretty temporary. 2993 02:04:30,080 --> 02:04:32,159 It'll be ephemeral. 2994 02:04:32,159 --> 02:04:34,320 >> But 2995 02:04:34,320 --> 02:04:36,960 yeah, I've found comfort, you know, with 2996 02:04:36,960 --> 02:04:40,000 the smithy certain paradigm that we're 2997 02:04:40,000 --> 02:04:42,639 in. Um yeah, you know, we could continue 2998 02:04:42,639 --> 02:04:44,239 to operate and then we're, you know, 2999 02:04:44,239 --> 02:04:46,960 taking a fraction of we normally, 3000 02:04:46,960 --> 02:04:49,199 >> but this is why industry is on the the 3001 02:04:49,199 --> 02:04:51,360 committee is so you get to say how you 3002 02:04:51,360 --> 02:04:52,560 think this will affect you and if 3003 02:04:52,560 --> 02:04:54,000 there's an operational change you can 3004 02:04:54,000 --> 02:04:55,760 make where you can say, yeah, we can 3005 02:04:55,760 --> 02:04:57,840 hold off for two months and not do our, 3006 02:04:57,840 --> 02:04:59,119 you know, flushing for those two months. 3007 02:04:59,119 --> 02:05:00,639 Maybe that's okay. I don't know how that 3008 02:05:00,639 --> 02:05:02,560 affects you all, but this is where you 3009 02:05:02,560 --> 02:05:05,280 guys get to decide how you want to 3010 02:05:05,280 --> 02:05:06,880 represent yourself. So, I I just say 3011 02:05:06,880 --> 02:05:08,480 like I I could see why you would take 3012 02:05:08,480 --> 02:05:10,480 that position because that does be this 3013 02:05:10,480 --> 02:05:12,719 operational change. And I also think 3014 02:05:12,719 --> 02:05:15,199 that it would be worth exploring 3015 02:05:15,199 --> 02:05:18,080 rule changes or whatever other things we 3016 02:05:18,080 --> 02:05:19,840 do as a state to make sure we're like 3017 02:05:19,840 --> 02:05:20,960 really thinking this through 3018 02:05:20,960 --> 02:05:24,639 >> our application's under review right now 3019 02:05:24,639 --> 02:05:27,920 of October. So, I think we can I plan 3020 02:05:27,920 --> 02:05:31,280 with the team. So I I would just say 3021 02:05:31,280 --> 02:05:33,840 like that's you I would I would totally 3022 02:05:33,840 --> 02:05:36,560 understand if you were not uh you know 3023 02:05:36,560 --> 02:05:40,320 supportive of this or if we needed other 3024 02:05:40,320 --> 02:05:42,159 more evaluation but 3025 02:05:42,159 --> 02:05:45,599 >> I think your concern is definitely noted 3026 02:05:45,599 --> 02:05:49,760 and and I think it's something that um 3027 02:05:49,760 --> 02:05:51,520 that the committee you know would 3028 02:05:51,520 --> 02:05:54,719 consider. you know, we're are making an 3029 02:05:54,719 --> 02:05:57,199 artificial change to the burm and 3030 02:05:57,199 --> 02:05:58,800 there's going to, you know, we're going 3031 02:05:58,800 --> 02:06:00,560 to see what happens to the we're 3032 02:06:00,560 --> 02:06:02,320 experimenting to see how the salinity is 3033 02:06:02,320 --> 02:06:02,880 affected. 3034 02:06:02,880 --> 02:06:05,119 >> Can I make a suggestion? I don't vote on 3035 02:06:05,119 --> 02:06:07,280 this committee. I just try to give my 3036 02:06:07,280 --> 02:06:08,960 thoughts and they're usually not very 3037 02:06:08,960 --> 02:06:13,040 well founded, but uh but can we because 3038 02:06:13,040 --> 02:06:14,800 there's these different issues, these 3039 02:06:14,800 --> 02:06:16,000 different regulations have kind of 3040 02:06:16,000 --> 02:06:18,800 sprouted up and also just a whole lot of 3041 02:06:18,800 --> 02:06:20,880 other complicating factors. could we 3042 02:06:20,880 --> 02:06:23,520 have some time to maybe meet with water 3043 02:06:23,520 --> 02:06:25,840 quality, talk about like what the 3044 02:06:25,840 --> 02:06:28,320 horizon looks like for a potential rule 3045 02:06:28,320 --> 02:06:30,239 change or maybe an exception and then 3046 02:06:30,239 --> 02:06:33,280 try to come back and smoke another time 3047 02:06:33,280 --> 02:06:34,960 because also we're we're out we're 3048 02:06:34,960 --> 02:06:36,480 actually out of time and I feel like 3049 02:06:36,480 --> 02:06:37,920 this deserves a little more conversation 3050 02:06:37,920 --> 02:06:40,880 as well. But um can we also maybe just 3051 02:06:40,880 --> 02:06:43,280 consider doing that 3052 02:06:43,280 --> 02:06:44,480 halfway in between? 3053 02:06:44,480 --> 02:06:46,560 >> Sounds like it but it's field season so 3054 02:06:46,560 --> 02:06:48,560 it's hard to get people in meetings. 3055 02:06:48,560 --> 02:06:50,800 Yeah. So we could try to alter the time 3056 02:06:50,800 --> 02:06:52,159 like maybe we could start earlier of the 3057 02:06:52,159 --> 02:06:54,000 day so it doesn't like end up ruining 3058 02:06:54,000 --> 02:06:55,840 the whole day. It's just like from 8 to 3059 02:06:55,840 --> 02:06:58,320 9 or maybe we do it virtually. I don't 3060 02:06:58,320 --> 02:06:59,599 think there's any reason we can't do 3061 02:06:59,599 --> 02:07:01,119 that but I think just getting 3062 02:07:01,119 --> 02:07:03,280 >> or if we get vote by email maybe 3063 02:07:03,280 --> 02:07:06,800 >> yeah is 3064 02:07:06,800 --> 02:07:08,000 >> I don't know I think we're just kind of 3065 02:07:08,000 --> 02:07:11,199 talking about maybe doing something. 3066 02:07:11,199 --> 02:07:13,119 So the outstanding question is is how 3067 02:07:13,119 --> 02:07:16,239 does this affect the salinity rule that 3068 02:07:16,239 --> 02:07:17,119 PW 3069 02:07:17,119 --> 02:07:18,639 >> I think that's probably the big thing 3070 02:07:18,639 --> 02:07:20,159 whether or not there's any exceptions to 3071 02:07:20,159 --> 02:07:22,079 be made you know because if our goal is 3072 02:07:22,079 --> 02:07:23,920 to import salt it seems pretty 3073 02:07:23,920 --> 02:07:27,040 counterproductive to prevent compass 3074 02:07:27,040 --> 02:07:30,159 from doing their flushing. 3075 02:07:30,159 --> 02:07:32,639 >> So maybe revisiting that and I know that 3076 02:07:32,639 --> 02:07:34,400 was a huge way of putting that rule and 3077 02:07:34,400 --> 02:07:36,079 we all tried to like capture that. So 3078 02:07:36,079 --> 02:07:37,920 maybe just talking through what that 3079 02:07:37,920 --> 02:07:39,199 might look like and it sounds to me like 3080 02:07:39,199 --> 02:07:41,760 a couple weeks especially when there's a 3081 02:07:41,760 --> 02:07:43,119 difference maybe it's not the most 3082 02:07:43,119 --> 02:07:45,599 crucial time to slow down and we could 3083 02:07:45,599 --> 02:07:47,599 also and during that time period as well 3084 02:07:47,599 --> 02:07:49,360 we could also try to get a hold of and 3085 02:07:49,360 --> 02:07:50,639 figure out like what they think is 3086 02:07:50,639 --> 02:07:52,400 possible whether we'd have to put this 3087 02:07:52,400 --> 02:07:53,840 out for procurement I think there's some 3088 02:07:53,840 --> 02:07:55,840 like challenges about lowering it that 3089 02:07:55,840 --> 02:07:58,159 much that I would like to request you 3090 02:07:58,159 --> 02:07:59,599 know it's possible so we can do a little 3091 02:07:59,599 --> 02:08:01,440 more leg work between now and then 3092 02:08:01,440 --> 02:08:03,760 >> right so we'll get a doodle poll out 3093 02:08:03,760 --> 02:08:07,119 here today tomorrow and try to look for 3094 02:08:07,119 --> 02:08:08,880 something next week and the following 3095 02:08:08,880 --> 02:08:09,599 week. 3096 02:08:09,599 --> 02:08:13,520 >> Will you can you uh look at email 3097 02:08:13,520 --> 02:08:15,360 possible as well? Maybe this is as 3098 02:08:15,360 --> 02:08:16,480 simple as just 3099 02:08:16,480 --> 02:08:16,880 >> right, 3100 02:08:16,880 --> 02:08:18,639 >> you know, we send an email out and say 3101 02:08:18,639 --> 02:08:20,719 here's what we found here are the three 3102 02:08:20,719 --> 02:08:26,390 options, but we'll we'll try to think. 3103 02:08:26,400 --> 02:08:29,440 » Yep. Is that okay with everyone? 3104 02:08:29,440 --> 02:08:31,599 >> Do you want more things to look at or 3105 02:08:31,599 --> 02:08:32,719 just show what we have? 3106 02:08:32,719 --> 02:08:34,079 >> I don't know. I think that most of what 3107 02:08:34,079 --> 02:08:35,679 we need to look at has been pretty well 3108 02:08:35,679 --> 02:08:37,119 represented. I think it's now just kind 3109 02:08:37,119 --> 02:08:39,440 of like some logistics and maybe talk 3110 02:08:39,440 --> 02:08:41,679 about water quality on rules unless 3111 02:08:41,679 --> 02:08:42,880 anybody else has anything they think 3112 02:08:42,880 --> 02:08:46,639 needs to be analyzed. I mean not to make 3113 02:08:46,639 --> 02:08:48,400 this decision but to look at the 3114 02:08:48,400 --> 02:08:50,000 long-term 3115 02:08:50,000 --> 02:08:55,199 issues I think the nitrogen the almost 3116 02:08:55,199 --> 02:08:56,800 suggest. So I think those action items 3117 02:08:56,800 --> 02:08:58,560 were to look at the overall nutrient 3118 02:08:58,560 --> 02:09:01,840 balance look at total nitrogen 3119 02:09:01,840 --> 02:09:05,040 consider sampling intensity capture the 3120 02:09:05,040 --> 02:09:07,840 balance and then look at the form of 3121 02:09:07,840 --> 02:09:13,510 nitrogen and the north south. 3122 02:09:13,520 --> 02:09:16,480 So those are ongoing things we can work 3123 02:09:16,480 --> 02:09:19,119 be working on. I think the the key thing 3124 02:09:19,119 --> 02:09:21,840 here is just to think about cons 3125 02:09:21,840 --> 02:09:24,079 potential concerns about and I think the 3126 02:09:24,079 --> 02:09:26,079 way this is framed is as as an 3127 02:09:26,079 --> 02:09:27,599 experiment 3128 02:09:27,599 --> 02:09:29,520 um for a number of months before 3129 02:09:29,520 --> 02:09:32,239 November 1st assuming that we have to 3130 02:09:32,239 --> 02:09:35,520 raise the burm to 4190 in November 3131 02:09:35,520 --> 02:09:37,040 um 3132 02:09:37,040 --> 02:09:40,960 and we lower the burm down to 4183 3133 02:09:40,960 --> 02:09:46,480 to to look at how the flux changes and I guess we'll have I think looking 3134 02:09:46,480 --> 02:09:48,239 at the monitoring intensity to 3135 02:09:48,239 --> 02:09:50,000 understand the flux changes. 3136 02:09:50,000 --> 02:09:51,760 >> Actually a good point too, Jeff. Maybe 3137 02:09:51,760 --> 02:09:53,280 one thing I would ask that if there's a 3138 02:09:53,280 --> 02:09:54,639 way to look at this, Christine, and I 3139 02:09:54,639 --> 02:09:56,159 know this is like pretty hypothetical, 3140 02:09:56,159 --> 02:09:58,480 but at what point, you know, knowing 3141 02:09:58,480 --> 02:10:01,119 that we would go down to like 41, what 3142 02:10:01,119 --> 02:10:03,760 was it? 90, what was the elevation we 3143 02:10:03,760 --> 02:10:07,360 would hit at the bottom? Was it 4189.3? 3144 02:10:07,360 --> 02:10:08,880 >> Yes. 3145 02:10:08,880 --> 02:10:12,079 So maybe like at what date if it's 3146 02:10:12,079 --> 02:10:13,520 possible you would anticipate that we've 3147 02:10:13,520 --> 02:10:15,199 hit 4190 because it may be that we have 3148 02:10:15,199 --> 02:10:17,360 to raise the burden in like September 3149 02:10:17,360 --> 02:10:19,760 and maybe this is a little too much just 3150 02:10:19,760 --> 02:10:23,520 to consider two months worth of import 3151 02:10:23,520 --> 02:10:26,560 again we shall raise it to 4190 or at 3152 02:10:26,560 --> 02:10:28,880 4190. So I don't think a whole lot of 3153 02:10:28,880 --> 02:10:30,639 discretion there. So, so maybe just 3154 02:10:30,639 --> 02:10:32,320 understanding that as well. 3155 02:10:32,320 --> 02:10:34,159 >> Honestly, I mean, I don't know how I 3156 02:10:34,159 --> 02:10:36,000 could I could look at previous rates of 3157 02:10:36,000 --> 02:10:38,000 decline, but I mean this year we're 3158 02:10:38,000 --> 02:10:39,520 think I'm thinking about evaporation and 3159 02:10:39,520 --> 02:10:42,159 also just like the abysmal runoff. Yeah. 3160 02:10:42,159 --> 02:10:44,320 >> And so it's like what are influencing? 3161 02:10:44,320 --> 02:10:45,760 Are they going to be impounded upstream? 3162 02:10:45,760 --> 02:10:46,880 There's like a lot of things I can't 3163 02:10:46,880 --> 02:10:48,239 really predict that would affect the 3164 02:10:48,239 --> 02:10:49,760 slope of decline. 3165 02:10:49,760 --> 02:10:50,239 >> Um 3166 02:10:50,239 --> 02:10:51,760 >> well, and no, I don't you don't need to 3167 02:10:51,760 --> 02:10:53,199 like put out a number. Just put out a 3168 02:10:53,199 --> 02:10:54,239 number. I think maybe that's just 3169 02:10:54,239 --> 02:10:55,760 something else we need to consider is 3170 02:10:55,760 --> 02:10:58,239 that we may need to think about the fact 3171 02:10:58,239 --> 02:10:59,920 that we may not be able to wait till 3172 02:10:59,920 --> 02:11:01,679 November to actually raise it. It may 3173 02:11:01,679 --> 02:11:03,520 have to happen like 3174 02:11:03,520 --> 02:11:05,440 >> you know August, September like who 3175 02:11:05,440 --> 02:11:08,159 knows whether will happen soon. 3176 02:11:08,159 --> 02:11:09,760 >> Put together one thing based on previous 3177 02:11:09,760 --> 02:11:12,000 rates of decline and give you some idea 3178 02:11:12,000 --> 02:11:13,599 but 3179 02:11:13,599 --> 02:11:15,599 >> yeah if you think it makes sense then 3180 02:11:15,599 --> 02:11:17,199 that'd be awesome but if it doesn't seem 3181 02:11:17,199 --> 02:11:20,560 like it's a ton of value it's not very 3182 02:11:20,560 --> 02:11:22,079 fine. So then and I think the last 3183 02:11:22,079 --> 02:11:24,880 action item is just logistics on moving 3184 02:11:24,880 --> 02:11:25,599 rock. 3185 02:11:25,599 --> 02:11:26,320 >> Yeah, 3186 02:11:26,320 --> 02:11:31,360 >> we'll we'll do that on our end. We'll work with the UP and others to see 3187 02:11:31,360 --> 02:11:33,840 what it is. Christine, could you put 3188 02:11:33,840 --> 02:11:35,679 your memo up there so we can all take 3189 02:11:35,679 --> 02:11:39,669 you? [laughter] 3190 02:11:39,679 --> 02:11:41,599 I'll bring it to 3191 02:11:41,599 --> 02:11:48,069 >> give a raise. 3192 02:11:48,079 --> 02:11:49,871 I know. 3193 02:11:49,871 --> 02:11:55,189 [laughter] 3194 02:11:55,199 --> 02:11:58,480 » Thanks for all your 3195 02:11:58,480 --> 02:12:02,719 USGS and the state funding. Great. 3196 02:12:02,719 --> 02:12:27,750 All right. Well, thank you everybody. 3197 02:12:27,760 --> 02:12:33,750 Okay. 3198 02:12:33,760 --> 02:12:36,840 Thank you.