♪
>> There she is.
And take a moment
all right. Good.
>> Good morning. And welcome
to the workshop on the
five-year financial forecast.
It is August 12th 2025 at
09:00AM to get started this
morning.
Commissioner can are would you
like to lead us in the
indication? And Commissioner
Fay again, could you lead us in
the pledge if you could please
rise?
>> You’re only father. We come
to her this morning again.
So thankful for the many
blessings are laws, Lord, we
pray. We pray for those who
are struggling today. We prayed
that they would feel the
comfort of your embrace for
that. You would be with us here
today as we go about the
county’s business wrote the
day. For that should not give
us the right words to use to
communicate our message is
Lord, we pray that you give us
open ears and mind to listen
to the viewpoints of others on
the board as well as out in the
public will be giving their
input as well. I pray Lord most
well to look over a look over
first responders both here in
the far bring them back home
safely each and every day in
Jesus name. We pray. Amen.
Amen.
>> I pledge allegiance to the
flag. The United States of
America. As to the Republic
for which it stands. One nation
under God, indivisible, with
liberty and justice for all.
Madam clerk, the roll call,
please.
>> This is a public workshop
of the Citrus County Board of
County Commissioners, this 12
day of August 2025. in a
tenants are Chair. Rebecca
Bay’s first chair Diana
Finnegan, second Vice Chair
Janet Barrack. Commissioner
Jeff Canard, Commissioner
holiday. This county
commissioner. Sorry County
Administrator Steve Howard and
county attorney to Nace a dime
in London. Thank you very much.
This morning, we’re going to
be joined by PMF a consulting
group.
>> That is going to do the
presentation on the five-year
financial forecast. Welcome.
Good morning.
>> Thank you all so much for
having me. It’s a pleasure to
be here with all this morning.
My name is Daniel Scott Parker.
I’m a director at Pfm and very
excited to share with you all
the results of the 5 year
forecast. We’ve been working
with the county over a number
of months and it’s been a
pleasure working with the
entire county teen. So I’ll
jump right into the
presentation and hopefully have
had some time for questions.
BFM, you like your Lall likely
familiar with them, get them
serves as the county’s
financial adviser myself and
my on Jews in a moment are with
the consulting practice that
really focuses on the school
planning and budgeting
multi-year financial planning.
I’m based in New Orleans.
But we have offices across the
country, including our local
offices here in the state,
Orlando and Miami. And this
really provides us. The
president said do what we need
to do in order to bring you
all budget solutions that are
tied in true time tested and
true to solving every one of
your various complex problems.
We are part of the different
groups consulting practice
really focus on issues of
management and budget that
includes looking at ways to
improve government efficiency
looking at day-to-day
operations. But ultimately we
are also the leader in
providing multi-year financial
planning to local governments
across the country in the last
10 years. We’ve got about 50
financial plans, another 20 for
school districts across the
country. So it’s a pleasure to
be working with you all.
I’m joined by my colleague,
Iowa to somebody who’s been
excellent and helping to really
pull together the forecast and
the model that hopefully of
time for rain will be able to
share a little sneak peek with
you all. But that ultimately
will be delivering and passing
on to the county staff. So R
work began. We’re start to
contract in March this year
to develop a multi-year
financial forecast for the
county. So as a part of this,
we assess the county’s
historical general fund
revenues and expenditures to
understand the drivers of your
financial protection pull
together. The model, the
forecasts itself is really
focused on the below items
highlighted on the screen,
forecasting or financial
trajectory over the next 5
years, analyzing some key
demographic economic budgetary
trends that impact your
finances, it and providing
recommendations on some best
practices around financial and
budget management and fiscal
policy. So as I said at the
end, not only do we have a much
fuller report in the one that
I’m going to share with you all
this morning that we share that
really outlines how the model
works. All of the assumptions,
the key drivers, things to keep
in mind and also shares.
We’re going to be sharing and
training the staff on the
actual tool, which is at Excela
based financial model that you
will be able to update on a
regular basis. So then now you
are able to consistently see a
5 year outlook from your annual
budget.
So this morning, all share a
little bit about the forecast.
Talk about some of the
assumptions and talk a little
bit about some of our findings
and items to keep in mind for a
path forward. As you all know,
procure this work, a multi-year
financial forecast really
offers a diagnosis of your
finances. It’s considered a
best practice by S p Fitch as
well as in the forecast that we
provide is in a dynamic easy to
update multi-year excelled base
model and it helps to sort of
reflect it what the county’s
directory if you maintain the
status quo. So if you consider
yourself taking your hands off
of the wheel over the next 5
years, making no major changes.
What with the financial
position of the county look
like? So when we’re creating
this forecast, we go all the
way down to the line item level
of detail. We worked with
county staff to understand the
nuances of not only your
financial policies, your
structure, your financial data,
and then we apply growth rates
associated with those major
categories that helps to build
out the actual forecast itself.
The forecast is built on the
fy 25 adopt a budget and then
applies growth rates of those
project of years. And of
course, assuming no corrective
action, which we’ll talk a
little bit about in the second.
It shows what the financial
forecast of the county would
be. For the model we make sure
to really integrate in your
key elements. The models
primarily focused on the
general fund, but does have
the ability to consider the
impact of some of your other
major funding streams that are
incorporated as you all conduct
your business.
It skews me and incorporates
you’re as crazy Reserve policy
and that policy is incorporated
into the model. So within the
baseline itself, which I’ll
show you in just a couple of
slides, it’s projected to have
a consistent 15% of total
operating expenditures, which
is about 54 days.
Approximately. And then your
Reserve fund Budget Budget Fund
balance. Excuse me, ranges from
about 22.3. 26.7 million over
the course of the rejection
within the projection itself.
There are various options from
modeling. What differences in
your reserve fund balance
levels. Look like so if the
county moved to an 8 or wanted
to go up to the 17, the to
balance of your ranges in your
policy. There’s a mechanism to
turn those switches on and off
to see what the fiscal impact
looks like over time.
But we talked a little bit
about the basin project itself.
So
baseline it takes into account
your historical data from Fy
2019 Fy 2024.
>> And then projects out to
from Fy. 26 to Fy 2030. You’ll
see when we get to the baseline
slide in just a second that
it’ll show your surplus
deficit, which is representing
county’s total revenues last
year. Expenditures. And then
your county’s ending fund
balance as represented and this
fund balance includes also
elements of your strict ID
funds as well. Within these
figures and calculations.
We also incorporate your carry
out, which is the one that
fiscal year’s revenues exceed
this school year expenditures
that availability Carryforward
is also incorporated over time.
And we’ll talk a little bit
about how that Carryforward is.
Over. Times begins to decline
because of the sort of
structural nuances of your
budget. So so this is the such
as counties 5, your baseline
projection, the forecast, as
I said, is protected from Fy.
26 to Fy 30, the Blue Bar is
your ending fund inclusive l
all of your restrictive
reserves for the general fund
and then the Ghraib are is your
surplus deficit. So you’ll see
that and projected years.
Fy 26 through Fy 28. You have
a surplus, but still a
declining surplus in the outer
years of the forecast starting
in Fy 29 to 30, you start to
see that surplus would go down
into a deficit.
Because the county chooses the
required fund balance every
year. It is possible that to
implement fiscal policy
decisions to avoid the year in
deficits. In Fy 29. And that’s
why 29.30.
Some of the key drivers of
Model S using include I’m
focusing on, we assume or 6%
projected growth in your ad.
Valorem taxes, 2% in sales and
then we’re also assuming a 4%
protected compound annual
growth rate annually for
personal services relating to
the Sheriff general operating
and then around another 4% for
non elected official personnel.
We assume a 9% projected growth
in your retirement
contributions. And then another
10% growth in your detention
facility. Contract. And about a
2%, 2 and a half percent growth
for your capital outlay lines.
And these are sort of
highlighted because they are
the major components of your
budget that are really driving
your ability to have these the
projection over time. So a
little bit of just about your
baseline.
>> You’ll see here that
generally you have a the growth
in your taxes is really the
driver on the revenue side of
your growth. You’ll see that
5.5 total revenue percent
growth versus the 4 and a half
percent total expenditures.
And this is important to see.
But it is a lot can be a little
misleading because the
carryforward amount really does
operate a major portion of your
base and how this city how the
county considers and monitors
their expenditures. And is able
to pay for their expenditures
over day-to-day basis. So any
scenario that exhaust that
carryforward puts the county
reserves and of challenging
fiscal position within 2 to
3 fiscal years. And this is
recognize here. So right now
we’re showing the total percent
of your total sort of revenue
base to the class is sure
Commissioner Frank and open
>> Sorry for the interruption,
sir, about waiting. And then I
noticed all of the pages that
we have to go in and I were
going to get so last week.
I we have a big yes. I think
you all have the full 75 pager.
They haven’t. 25 slide. So
we’re we’re. We’re gonna keep
it short and sweet. But yes,
please. I love your question.
If I’m a couple slides back
on the five-year baseline
projection. I was trying to
take out the answer as he went
on. But why do you feel like
it looks like revenues go up,
which is expected being has
house fires got more. People
are moving here. Absolutely.
I can understand if you are
saying you see the population
staying flat, why would the
why would our revenues go down?
And 29 30, what? What brought
you to that projection? Got it.
So it’s it’s actually not
revenues going down its your
carryforward going down the
that the ability.
>> That gray bar includes not
only your revenues
expenditures, but also in Italy
in the annual carryforward him
out. As you have that
carryforward, it starts off
very strong. I think close to
20 give you the exact number.
27. Yeah, I think it’s close
to 27 Million. 40 minutes or
skis. A 40.5 billion in Fy 25
that provides us strong base to
start from over time going into
fy. 26 drops down to
27 Million. Then to 19 million,
10 to 11 2028. by
Twenty-thirty. It’s at 1.7
million. So that decline in
the availability of that
Carryforward is really what’s
driving partially. It’s the
extending growth of your
expenditures and then the that
decline in the carryforward
about that’s available. Tat’s
cushioning the the surplus
here.
>> And why do you think that’s
going to go down?
Because of the extending growth
in here? And actually let me
Popovic’s. I think this will
help. So your carryforward
makes up. 22 1% of your total
revenue base in Fy 25 your
budget. You’ve been you’ve been
balancing your budget,
particularly using that
carryforward without the
carryforward. It declines your
total tax faces 90%. And so
your reliance on that
carryforward is I think a risk
as a part of how you all are
managing your expenditures
itself are not exceeding your
are your current revenues
without the carryforward are
not able to keep pace with your
expenditures. What you’re able
to keep that pace with the
Kerry for going forward?
Well, that I guess I don’t
quickly grew because we have to
have a reserve budget for
emergencies or so. We need to
have a large carryforward and
when nothing happens. Thank
you, Lord.
>> It has to be carried
forward. I know you see that
as a risk. But to me that.
>> That seems prudent now.
So you’re maintaining your
reserve levels, which is why
the Blue bar.
>> In the prior slide continues
over time. You still having a
healthy reserve, but you’re
using because the carryforward
is used as an operating funding
mechanism as you’re operating
expenses, grow over time.
That carryforward again, if you
took your hands off the wheel
and or not changing posse of
changing your practices on a
year to year basis and are
letting story of the
projections do their thing.
This is actually the outlook
that you would see you would
spend down that carry forward
at a faster rate than you
probably otherwise would have
as you’re making annual
spending decisions.
>> So you’re just assuming that
we’re going to be spending more
in the growth isn’t keeping up
with it. So then we’re going to
start dipping into our
carryforward. Yes. So you’re
aware, assuming because based
on how the projections worth
you start with the
carryforward. You include that
basin. The start.
>> And and the and less there’s
a surplus in that fiscal year.
That is what’s then being put
back into the carryforward.
>> And the following year
because you’re not there’s a
structural imbalance between
you’re operating revenues,
you’re operating expenditures.
You’re not seeing as strong of
a surplus being able to put
back into the carryforward to
make that base stronger from
year to year.
Commissioner Kerik Skis I’m
sorry, Commissioner, I’m sorry.
Mister Davis.
>> I I figured all that out.
It is essentially I think if
you look at it from me, sort
of a common sense standpoint,
we’re always told that
residential growth cost more.
>> Then they pay in taxes,
chair and commercial and
industrial pay more in taxes
than they take in services.
And so does this. Did you work
with Metro development forecast
in terms of what what we
currently have zoned commercial
and industrial and AG, which
are all part of net positive,
too.
>> The tax base. So we did.
We did take into account the
Metro forecasts projections.
So those are included.
>> And the projections for the
property tax.
>> As well as any of the other
economically driven
assumptions. We did use the
Metro forecasters report as the
basis of those projections.
Okay. So we do have a chance
>> potentially.
Change the south going with the
zoning decision? Absolutely.
You know that the model itself
is built very flexibly so that
they any county person can go
in.
>> Change the numbers, change
the percentages. So if you have
updated numbers from Metro
forecasters as you have a
different assumptions that
either come down from the state
or from policy decisions out of
this group, this elected body,
you all can make those changes
and see that this could impact
over time. Not only in the
first year of the that budget,
but also in future years.
Super thank you, Chair
Commissioner Barry.
>> I have a question. This man,
if the reserves amount that
we take every year and set
aside increase. Because if
we’re getting more money.
Okay from the Bab rejection
because we actually have more
population. We have more
businesses so our income where
revenue is increasing okay.
I I agree. The reserve should
also be increasing because if
I take and I increase which
coming in and I also increased
that’s good increased what I’m
going to set aside so that’s
why I don’t understand where
you’re getting negative numbers
for this. You know, surplus
because if I’m getting more set
aside every year.
It has to be growing,
not shrinking.
>> You are growing. Your
revenue bases are growing, but
your expenditures are going
faster, which is I think the
piece of this that is the
particularly when you pull the
carryforward out the growth
of your expenditures is far
outpacing your revenue base
and that using the metro
forecasting projections as to
what we’re going to grow as a
Yes, ma’am.
>> We’re still going to lose.
You’re still going to have your
expenditures growing faster
than your revenues. And a lot
of that is built on.
>> I would say assumptions an,
you know, decisions that may
not be fully in your control.
The detention facility.
Contractors is growing. Your
costs on your elected
officials, particularly out of
this year. Our growing quite
fast and make up a large
percentage of your expenditure
base you’re also seeing
generally the growth in
salaries and wages. All of that
are growing at a at a pretty
high clip in Those key drivers
right here. These are really
what’s driving.
>> The faster pace expenditure
growth over your revenues?
I think with the continuation
of continuing to think about
and trying to have annual
conversations about how do you
balance your expenditure
burden.
>> With your available revenues
or and or how do you increase
your revenue diversification?
How do you make sure that
you’re maxing out on things
that will allow you to bring in
more revenues on an annual
basis? This gap will not be
there because you all be making
the annual decisions to address
any potential surplus deficit
in real time. The projection
itself, like I said, is the
status quo. If the if you
continue as you are with no
policy changes with no
effective changes, assuming the
growth that you’re likely to
see based on the Metro
forecasters projections on the
revenue side and based on some
know notes on the expenditure
side.
>> Well, we’re not what I’m
thinking. News. Okay. As the
revenues grow, we also continue
taking out users. Yes. So the
reserves have to grow because
the percentage, the amount, you
know, knows the magic text on
instead of 100. It may be
armed. 50 sure. Okay. So if
I’m raising everything.
Then I still, you know, it
amazes me. How you tell me is
going to shrink. You tell me
the expenses are going to go
that fast. Yes, ma’am.
Commissioner Davis? see if I
can help clarify. We have been
told over and over and over
that the average.
>> Cost per dollar paid into
the system by residents.
It costs U.S. dollar 50 to
serve them. We are growing rez
too fast and residential, not
enough in commercial and
industrial Costa. 70 to serve
every dollar that they pay n
it costs us $0.30 to serve.
Every dollar ad comes at this
has been a cliff that we’ve
been facing for a while by
right development, personal
property rights. And this is
why on all of our zoning cases,
we need to put more commercial
and more industrial in place.
Obviously in the appropriate
places, not, you know,
industrial next to a
neighborhood. Okay. But these
are really critical policy
decisions and I am very
thankful for the heads up.
Any more questions. I think
some of this also clear,
clarify a little bit.
>> As we keep going. So we
talked a little bit about the
that really the dominance in
the reliant on carry forward
and how that is playing a
material role in your ability
to continue to replenish your
live reserves as you want to
based on your reserve policy,
but also to manage your annual
operating budget.
This I think maybe helps to
clarify a little bit about
exactly how we’re leveraging
some of the different
projections and particularly on
the expenditure side. So 2024
increase, particularly due to
a study generally closer to
4% across the board increases
retirement contributions.
We know that those are going to
grow that county share of your
net pension liability. You’re
max growth by the contract and
statue of the U.S. marshal are
also driving your cars growth,
that detention facility
contract and then as well as
the capital outlay likely to
increase closer to an
inflation. And then we’re also
assuming these likely growth
by the salaries and wages in
your general operating for the
sheriff’s office says, hey,
you’re also on the sales tax
side inspecting. I anticipate
Inc softer inflation over the
projection period, some of the
economic uncertainty continues
to go about.
>> You’ll you’ll see here we I
flagged this, particularly for
the detention facility. It is
your fastest growing
expenditure roll up by far
largely due to the contracts in
the statutes that govern how
those funds are spent so you’ll
see from Fy 25 budget. You’re
budgeting. 18.4 million in Fy
25. It’s projected to grow to
almost 30 million by 2030.
That is a huge growth. And
that’s of a lot of what’s
driving the the the as deficit,
particularly in the out years.
Is this very rapid growth that
you’re seeing in your tunes
facility contract.
So a path forward, you’re
managing a modest structural
surplus where your overall
growth and your revenues
slightly higher than your
overall growth for your
expenditures. You have a
healthy fund balance. And if
current trends continue that
fund balance will continue to
increase. However, the use of
your Kerry for does obscure
your county’s true financial
picture. It without the yearly
carryforward funds. The county
is projected to run deficits
starting in 2029 2030, even
after incorporating funds that
would normally be applied from
the county’s Reserve Budget
Fund balance. There are some
steps that we would recommend
it thinking about your tax
revenue. If you think back to
the
the pie chart where you’ve got
almost 90% when you’re
excluding the carryforward of
your revenues coming from
taxes, thinking about either
how to continue to build on
that base, working with Metro
forecasters to understand what
that growth will take over
time. But also continuing to be
mindful of that changing in the
economy and the rest,
particularly on the sales tax
side wanting to make sure that
you have some diversification
on your revenue, particularly
on your taxes, thinking about
how you can decrease your
county expenditures,
particularly general operations
related to the sheriff’s
office. If there are
opportunities for efficiencies,
if there are opportunities for
effectiveness of coordination
that can help to drive down or
to plateau those costs. That’s
worth exploring and then
relying only on operating
revenues, expenditures in order
to decrease your alliance on
the Kerry for going forward.
It’s another recommendation
that we have thinking about
implementing controls and
policies to limit that Kerry
Ford and the sort of the
appropriation of those rollover
funds and then we’ve talked
with, I think almost all of the
all over the course of our work
about the various capital
needs, the projects, the
investments that the county
wants to make, that residents
are hoping to see. These are
all things in there. We’ve
reviewed in your targets for
action as well as your general
fund Cip project list thinking
about how you’re prioritizing
that work leveraging the fact
that you’re able to now see
a multi-year forecast thinking
about how you which of those
projects have the ability to
with the investment in one
year. Hopefully see some
savings, either maintenance
costs or other upkeep costs
that you’re already carrying
the burden for. If you are able
to sort of capture what those
savings are by the new
investment, you’re then able
to reinvest those costs into
new and more projects on your
list. And that obviously
continuing to update that based
on forecasts and the key
assumptions. This is not a
production. It’s a projection.
So these assumptions are meant
to be re-evaluated. They’re
meant to be reviewed regularly.
And I think they’re
appropriately meant to be
scrutinized to make sure that
the projections themselves are
meaningful and are realistic
based on the experiences of
the county, the economy, as
well as the policy decisions
made by this body some of the
things that are not on the
slide, certainly making sure
that any of your available for
the revenue? Our maxed out or
that are you’re maximizing that
the revenue evaluating what
the costs recovery costs are.
Is another good bres practice
that many municipalities who
are considering on the revenue
side making some of those
adjustments I’m happy. This is
I think the they’re in the
conversation about all flags.
Some of the list we have in the
model already.
>> Incorporated in the list of
capital projects from your most
recent time targets for action.
But also some of the projects
that folks have highlighted
no knowns around. If there was
needs for additional disaster
funding. If you change your
fund balance reserve level,
that’s assumed in the model,
there’s a lot if you change
staffing numbers, those
capabilities are already built
into the model. So they all you
do is turn the switch on to see
the fiscal impact of those
items of time. So ensuring
alignment with near-term
finances, mother recommendation
that we have, as you all are
continuing to evaluate what
your needs are and how you want
to leverage available funds.
Fear. Very important
priorities. So happy to answer
any more questions. You have.
I can also share do little
preview of the model. He would
like to see it. We have
available to show you all as
well. Commissioner Kerik.
>> The only question I have
for you is this man. This is
based on. Being able to
assessed property taxes on all
the residents of Citrus County.
Correct? Yes, ma’am. Did you
take into consideration with
the Legislature up in
Tallahassee is discussing about
$500,000 Homestead Week engine
for every property.
>> We get so the model includes
a scenario where we effectively
at apply that assumption and it
is detrimental. It would be
detrimental to the county would
be detrimental to local
governments across the state.
But yes, we have incorporated
that in the model so that you
can see the fiscal impact of
that that policy choice.
Thank you. Yes, ma’am.
>> I would like to see an
example of cheer them on.
Sure.
>> Well, no, but I feel it up.
Is there any other questions
while we get the model? Place?
Your Davis?
>> When we had our discussion
prior on Zoom, I had brought up
the Citrus Hope Project, the
homeless shelter and you said
that you have run numbers
before for other clients and so
forth or could run those
numbers for us. The I am struck
by the fact that it is roughly
$75 a day to keep. And we have
a basically a mandate from the
state to arrest homeless
people. Our own contract
monitor says that people are
serving life sentences 3 months
at a time they cycle in this
cycle out the cycle in this
cycle out. And $75 a day.
All of the whole properties are
$25 a day to just under $30
a day per person. So of course,
we have to approximate how many
are in jail because they’re
homeless. But here’s that.
The killer number that are much
beloved and respected recently.
Retired Florida health director
locally Tito. Rubio said that.
We have a line item on our
budget where we have to
reimburse Medicaid for indigent
care and it was 1.8 million
dollars this year. That’s a
pretty huge number.
So at Tampa hope, for example,
they have a Tampa general box
where the people go into the
box and then they do telehealth
and so all of that health care
is taken care of that these
homeless shelters, which keeps
homeless folks out of the ares
and out of our taxpayer
pocketbook. So I would be super
interested in what those
numbers are because ultimately.
I believe if the numbers pan
out the way, I think they will,
that we would end up saving
taxpayer dollars by giving them
some state but not the full
savings. But it’s a half the
savings and then half of it
goes back to the taxpayers.
So I’d be really interested in
those numbers chair. And so
the we’re actually sitting down
with again.
>> The county staff that we’ve
been work with have been
fantastic and
>> the?
>> I think the ability for the
model to incorporate those
assumptions, the numbers that
you’re talking about, what the
current costs are with the
projected savings are and what
the ongoing operating costs are
very easy to be incorporated
into the model so that you can
see that full fiscal impact
over time and sort of be able
to navigate what the upfront
costs are. Any, but also what
the savings are over time.
So with with the assumptions
that certainly something that
can be incorporated with that
and I can certainly work on the
other municipalities that have
hope shelters to find out what
they’ve.
>> What’s the savings they have
realized, fair tax payers.
I know the mayor of Tampa
promised a million dollars the
first year and 500,000 in each
ensuing year and she kept it a
million because the savings
were presumably that good in
them. The I’m a big data hound.
I always try to. Numbers.
Don’t lie. So we look data.
Yeah, thank you.
And also that the model itself
has been shared with the
county. So you will have it.
It is in your possession.
>> And available to see and
review if we’re still
navigating some that Apple will
see difficulties happy to find
time to connect with you all
and do another webinar to walk
you through it and to share
answer any questions that you
all have.
>> Well, while we’re waiting
Mr. Howard, I would be
interested in it. You know,
you’ve obviously been working
with this. One of the things
that I felt like.
Was important is as opposed
to setting. Coming in and half
a billion dollars a year and
just doing a one-year budget.
It’s almost like we could
forecast out maybe 3 years.
Not to say it’s not going to
have some movement in it, but
you kind of have a benchmark of
where you’re going
year-over-year. But I given
the information that they have
provided and taking into
account.
Metro forecasts, teens,
predictions. What? What is how
do you summarize this and as
our CEO of our county and where
we going. Yeah, I think, you
know, you know, we say hope is
not a plan and what’s so great
about that hold early behalf.
We’ve had lots of discussions
with a tool that you can leave
behind.
>> Will allow U.S. White
Commissioner Burke could
mention, you know, some of the
legislation. Whenever that
happens, we can look at that
and make those assumptions and
be more forward thinking as
we’re looking to the future
and, you know, some point if
these predictions they made
and there are some shuns, they
may become may not, but we can
properly plan. But the more
proactive some excited about
that. I’ve been involved with
biennial budget, things like
that. Many governments have
tried that have been
successful. Some Abbott, we’ve
had lots of discussions under
interest and that whole Tammy,
this as well. That there’s a
variety of the program based
budgeting. I actually like
program based. But one of the
program cost be
performance-based budget.
Those are all kind of models.
I would like to look at going
forward. But this does give us
a better opportunity for think
so. At some point, if we want
to look at whatever the project
is, an animal shelter, our
other things, the sports call
these different things that we
look at up here that I called
the F bombs. We actually have
an opportunity now with those
kind of data sets to have a
look at this model that we
haven’t forecast more properly.
Just going to help us to better
communicate as we’re going
through a budgeting a mission
that that’s a different way of
doing business. We start to
a multi-year budgets, but it’s
a good way to go as you
properly plan. There’s a lot of
things are going to happen
we’re beginning to face in the
next couple years. We can’t
predict that. We don’t have a
the crystal ball. Look at.
But with all this opportunity
with the Metro forecast model
with this tool, we’re getting
to get a lot of tools that
we’re able actually proactively
plan for this for this county
going forward, which is going
to put a son much better
positioning for the future.
So some excited about that
excited about the tool that
they’re leaving behind. We’re
going to continue to burn up
their telephones, free of
charge. I’m told me into this
and to continue to do that.
But this is exciting
opportunities. A great tool to
have in our tool box.
>> Poor ficken to the budget
you’re getting ready to set our
new upcoming budget. So
>> policies, do you think that
we should start to implement
going into this new budget and
what are some of your
suggestions to
kind of preset what may or may
not come out of
the legislature?
>> Well, I think you get a it’s
it’s it’s something I’ve looked
at this in this. There’s a lot
of things. Keep me up at night
and the corrections is one of
those. Obviously at the fund
that sheriffs, all these
things, you have to be funded
with local taxes and things
like that. This could be a
different medium business
ultimately when everybody looks
at that with his conversations,
go, we’re still trying now to
behind the scenes balance right
now, working with staff knows
where we’re looking at this
5 million dollars additional
for road resurfacing. Just
general fund money. I think
going forward what I call that
the true up 20 is what really
caused a colleague
Carryforward. I probably get a
look at that a little bit
closer and see. How’s that
going? I would like to have a
little bit more reserved.
That’s kind of the stabbing.
I’ll tell you the served in.
You look at my resignation
letter I gave in I was very
proud of 2 with 38%. reserves
are which is a lot of cash for
it. But you got to balance that
out. You don’t have too much.
They’re either. That’s not good
either. But but I think you get
a look at that a little bit out
of little more health, your
fund balance. That’s me
personally. And also be
cautious going forward. We’re
looking at this but be very
close to these assumptions and
hopefully they’re not accurate.
This would be, you know, over
the accurate. But you got to be
proactively plan. Somebody be
setting up here in this seat.
Most likely it may not some
abs, but we want to put this in
a better position in 2029,
2030, and be preparing for
that. I’d love to continue to
put more in these reserves
potentially. Also look at this
truck. He may be a little bit
differently, but I don’t I
don’t have what these policies
will look at right now. I’m
still trying to work right now
to get us to balancing and be
able to work with the reserve.
And we’re getting very close, I
think, to be able to come back
to the board with, I think some
positive news on that. But it
is cut me coming near about
30 some months into this.
I’m always here a couple words
here. Duke money and then I was
here like this truth, you know,
the true of money. So those are
things that were we’re
dependent on doing different
things with so it’s got to be
careful, cautious and make sure
those are, you know, one time
expenses, not reoccurring
expenses. I know Commissioner
Card talks a lot about that and
I agree 100% of them, you know,
the budgeting want to make sure
we’re doing that as well that
we’re not. We’re putting those
separately. So this but just
don’t continue to grow at those
levels that are kind of
starting a bigger budget.
We want to keep those
separated. So they are one-time
expenditures. So what a
compounding these budgets going
forward. There’s a variety
things. I love to have more
discussions with. You may be
in, you know, going into
January, our strategic plan
retreat the Sea, which model we
work at. And then I’d love to
have them continue with this a
little bit further along with
some of these other budgeting
techniques actually work across
the country, which ones are
working, which ones are not.
I’ve done a variety of mud and
everything from 0 base
budgeting, which quite honestly
you never started 0 yet.
As a county of expenses
expenses, we can’t get rid of
but program based budgeting,
performance-based budgeting,
not what the outputs work, but
what was the outcome as well as
the investment was returned,
investment for the dollars that
you spent so those are all
conversations are going to have
a probably gonna have a lot
sooner based on what comes out
of Tallahassee. Soon.
I went around the circle with
him. Thanks a little too.
2 too soon to make policy
decisions. This point just
coming out of this with this
data. Plus, trying to get your
input today. Welcome to
terminal. We bring forward.
We can work close with our
consultants staff too. See what
are some some things that we
could actually come forward.
Some policy improvements that
would be Moammar forward
thinking to continue to take us
into this new modeling that we
have for the future.
>> I guess my biggest concern
is the citizens.
>> Have spoken very loud, very
clearly that road resurfacing
is at the top of their
priorities. And we’re
struggling to come up with the
additional funds to kind of
make it whole for the same
amount of money that we spent
this year to spend next year
and if I’m interpreting what
she’s saying correctly on the
cash carry forward. That’s kind
of how we’ve been balancing
that out and we’re we’re
cutting into that. We’ve used
that up and
I asked what the number was
in new growth. Just dollars for
new growth and it was 3.2
million dollars right? So that
took. Half a billion dollar
worth of investment. Just to
get 3.2 million dollars in tax
revenue.
When you think about like how
many houses you have to have
for that versus maybe an
industrial park and our
commercial. And then you think
of the intrinsic values of what
that puts back into your
community for creating higher
paying jobs in more wages
so for me, I’m looking at it.
I really do believe that we
have to really kind of as board
policy start to focus on some.
Revenue diversification from
now. What are we? What are we
trying to attract into our
community thinking only about a
half percent. You’re this
industrial center that you’re
challenging. Pardon.
>> Exemptions and all those
things are very difficult.
And then you have all these
cars drivers. I went back and
looked over the last decade at
one time. You’re only put
2 million dollars a year for
road resurfacing Patel. You’ve
got, you know, 2000 miles
through this, a lot of roots
so we definitely have an issue
with all those things. And of
course, you’re competing every
year for expenses, utilities
have doubled costs of health
care is to all these.
Everything’s is going up.
Property liability insurance,
all those things. So this very
difficult yes, with the issues
that are facing here, some of
the challenges. But with
challenges as opportunities.
I think we have to think
differently and you have to
kind of look at the Mir with
the Staten saying he’s already
either just look at a jury,
do something with it. And
proactively try to take steps
to execute the future. And she
was struck. She can go on so
I think this is all good.
Good conversation at good
information. Moving forward.
But like you said, you have
to defer to diversify the
economy, which is difficult.
We just came from a town hall
meeting and Floral city.
So you’re balancing that out of
time to talk to people have a
little bit of fun with them
and say you like those Texas
Roadhouse and they all say yes
and a lot of times I asked a
lie-in some of the guys you
like Hobby Lobby and they say,
yes, I like that about 5 guys.
The burger there. Yes. So I say
what we call that we call that
groove. And then I got another
e-mail from another citizen us
as I’m concerned about my
medical doctor had over 30
years and they’re leaving well,
how do we, you know, employee
other doctors in this
community, things like that.
He’s got the quality of life
and issues and things like
that. And then a seat on the
industrial side. You have to
have competitive advantage to
bring industry to this
community. So they’re looking
for a lot of things. So it’s a
balancing act and this is not
you need unique to this
government. They’re facing
these challenges across the
state. I can tell you that my
colleagues so and you say, I
think the light at the end of
tunnel continues to be bright.
But we just got to remain
focused and diligent and, you
know, take this and use these
tools that have proactively to
the community and community
communicate that out to the
public in everything costs
money. I wish it was didn’t
cost money, which to double.
But based on your analysis
here, you continue to see a lot
of things need to to be taken
care of, correct. And things
like that. And that’s only a
little bit of a bite at Apple
that we can actually
proactively do so I’m excited
about going forward working
with this board for policy
improvements and to continue to
communicate that with the
public. Some of the needs that
we have. But we’re making
progress. But there’s going to
cost. So she thought that it is
a look at our numbers. I think
2 years, almost 300% increasing
to s*** women on a new expenses
and things like that. All these
things are the team to go
messing anything going down.
I’d also commissioner Kerik.
Administrator. I have a
question.
>> Having been to the meetings
last weekend with the
legislators and there they’re
talking property taxes are
going to be going down for all
the citizens in the state.
With that may be going away
completely. And then coming up
with a different way to to get
money for the counties. Can you
at this point? Come up with.
A number. Did we could see
physically?
We if they were to take in
everything was everybody was at
500,000 or up with the only
property taxpayers. In other
words, that’s the numbers that
were thrown at me at the
meetings. I went to. They’re
considering anything. $500,000
property value lower. They 0.
That nominates a lot of things
in our county. So I’m looking.
Forward and I’m saying, OK,
what is the possibility when
they pass this next year?
How much money are we actually
going to have to work with?
You know, that’s a forecast and
I’d like to see how much will
we have? I don’t going to take
time to do it. But could you
possibly do that? We will do
our very best, OK? Thank you.
>> I think that’s a discussion.
I don’t think that I was in
Tallahassee couple weeks ago
and I’m not gonna name names,
but somebody was in there with
a group of U.S. County managers
and they said they’ve never
seen a time in Florida has now
where we have folks trying to
make decisions that have no
boots on the ground and local
government because what we do
with our corrections, I mean,
all those folks, what do we
know? Pay sheriff’s office?
You know, you said that you
wouldn’t have any law
enforcement. No public works.
All the roads you want to do
actual we’re balancing know
that’s general fund money that
we’re doing road resurfacing
with the news. 5 Million.
So it’s all those things.
In the end of the day, if that
people doing this work. So it’s
it’s all got to get done to see
to make a decision when you
don’t have any responsibility
or after see what the thing is
and that that’s that’s not
good. Some hopeful. I’m hopeful
that the better mines will come
together in the our friends in
Tallahassee will rethink some
of these these decision points.
And then diversify because you
still got to pay the bills.
We’ve got to pay for all these
services and the very public.
And that means one this board
to be able to do some things.
This board’s being handcuffed.
I mean, is taking your take on
local control away, which is
bad. This is job stressful
enough are ready to to all the
stuff that we’re doing now
without somebody you don’t have
any funds to do, do this works?
I don’t. I don’t think it’s
gonna work out real good as it
could be a good good ending.
I think with that. So hopefully
better folks will think through
that a little bit and words
that come from. And if you look
at that, you look at that that
we’re not based totally on
property taxes. What you’re
looking at that the general
fund money. I came forward with
his buddy dollars in new
revenues. But her expenses over
13 Million. Meantime, having to
balance all that out and you
have 30,000 more population
than you had many years ago.
You have less employees today
and you had back in. 0, 708.
So in fact, you’re actually
doing this with less. But, you
know, the services are going
continue to go up. The demands
are going to go up. All those
things and when you say and
moved to Florida, keep Florida
free. Well, it’s not free for
any this local service,
something our good friends I
think is walking the judges.
All these things they have to
do the courtrooms. All the
expenses are the board has to
do. It’s all F bombs. It’s
expensive to do all this work.
Some hopeful that bill they’ll
consider our thoughts into
this. We have real meaningful
dialogue and we don’t do what a
lot of governments have done
and other places around the
country says attack shift and
that’s something that I hope
doesn’t happen. So.
>> I think they’ve figured out
putting I public hearing to
my colleague, I was in the
other room. So I’ll share shout
out yet.
>> Is there a way to share this
screen?
Okay. It started there. Thank
you. Okay. I so if you can
scroll down a little bit.
This is the baseline tab and
you’ll see it’s organized by
various categories showing your
total revenues a pause their I
o U C your total revenues and
then your revenues. Plus that
carryforward coming into
account. I feel scroll down a
little bit.
We can see that. You know, yet
if you can zoom in, I’ll please
as well. Maybe one more.
So scrolling down. You’ll see
the various different elected
offices. If you can continue
scrolling. We’ll get to the
bottom of the county’s personal
expenses expenses. So here’s
where you’ll see your total
expenditures. And and then that
growing surplus deficit towards
the out years. And then along
with your ending fund balance
has that surplus continues to
grow its starting into the
ending Fund balance. And then
as being if you scroll down a
little bit thank you. You see
or serve budget fund balance
policy to ring up to that 15%
and then being reallocated back
into your carryforward. If you
go the initiative manager,
please.
So this is that that have that
we’re referencing where we’ve
already preloaded in a bunch
of the various projects
initiatives, potential things
that we’ve heard from
conversations with the county
team. You’ll see at the top.
It’s got that same fund balance
for men that you all have been
seeing over the course of the
presentation.
>> I can’t see any of that.
Yeah. So it’s not. Yeah.
He said that he able to get
this. The county hasn’t.
Yes, this is yours.
>> But if you focus in on that
top bar, so all turn on a
couple things. But if you focus
on the very top graphic, the
top Iowa, you turn on animal
Services building.
You see the fiscal impact of
funding that project and then
if you scroll down and turn on
while keeping on the animal
services. It’s alright because
we can’t see anything anything.
So it’s it’s a yeah, it is.
It is a dynamic. Like I said,
it’s a dynamic tool where
>> you turn. The switch is on.
You see the fiscal impact over
time and the county has the
ability to easily drop an
additional projects. So there’s
probably 150 different lines of
places of items scenario is
that you all can incorporate in
there and then have the ability
and will be working with staff
later today to get them trained
up on the model. And as Mister
Howard said, we’re around.
So if you have questions, if
there’s needs, we’re happy to
be able to fulfill those with
you all. Very good. Thank you
so much. And Commissioner
Pentagon, I believe you had a
question.
>> I didn’t. I was just
falling, Mr. Howard you know,
attack shift and I know you
have mentioned this a lot.
Commissioner.
>> You know, if it came to a
greater reduction property
taxes, people would still have
to pay would be a shift just to
everybody over the 500,000.
It would we would have Dennis
View everything and then no
one wants to pull exemptions
off. You know, it’s not been
popular about people that
really paid no taxes, but
that’s I’ve fear. That’s what
it would have to come to.
Everybody would be paying 4
police officers. Everyone would
be paying for fire. Everyone
would be paying for.
>> The the the thing that makes
that tough is yet in St use
which follow ad Valorem and
the exemptions.
>> And then you have msbu so
that how you can apply them
work different. And every thing
that we would have to pull out,
we would which. I don’t like
because I do feel like it’s a
tech shift and it all comes
with a cost.
>> You know, we have to hire
people to figure that all out
to make it legal. So if that
does happen, people will not be
free. I think of paying
anything, but it would be very
expensive to the community.
To shift that back around.
>> We say sometimes I’m amaka.
I was in Tallahassee and to me
and told me I’m not going to
point out, but they some folks
sometimes are given the rest to
draw course sometimes. Is it
looking like a camel? They
didn’t mean that. But that’s
what they get at the end of
its. I hope the whatever
they’re trying to draw that
they draw correctly and it
doesn’t impact us. No harm us
because we don’t want to hurt
us in some fun that will
continue to work with our our
friends in Tallahassee and the
we’ll continue to find a better
path forward. That doesn’t hurt
anyone.
>> Well, we have roughly what?
45 million dollars in state
mandates that. I think the
lion’s share of that comes out
of ad valorem. So I’d be very
open a lot in a few discussion
of the dose team. I think
they’re going to rebrand the
name. I’m always open to cost
saving opportunities,
opportunities for more I’ve got
a lot of thoughts on that
statewide.
>> I actually had a little bit
of a background purchasing and
things like that. The past,
I think there are
opportunities. 2 U.S. have to
tax dollars actually even be
more efficient, more effective.
But I think you can do that on
a statewide basis. Some
programs and things like that.
So I think there’s some upper
teens are efficiencies all in.
I told us what we want most.
The technology advancements
improvements. The first one
is going to roll up my sleeves.
Actually. I think we were the
on the first of 3 counties that
voluntarily went forward and
said, you know, we’ve given him
all the debt and things like
that. So I’m excited about
that. Those kind of
opportunities and welcome those
opportunities that I think when
they get here, I kind of had
discussions with them. I hope
they find money. I found I
haven’t felt all the surplus
and everything like that.
That the state is enjoying
right now at this point.
So I welcome those
opportunities for cost saving
initiatives that are beneficial
the community, but we still
have to provide these important
services to our community at a
local level.
Thank you all so much for
having. Thank you. Thank you
for beating a horse.
>> All right.
Well, if there’s nothing else,
we’ll move on to our space
needs care to me.
Jeremy opened up to public army
I’m sorry, we’re going to go to
open to the public with anybody
in the public. A lake to
address the. Five-year
financial forecast
come on, Eric.
>> Okay. Yeah.
>> All right. We will
the five-year financial
forecast and we’ll move right
on in and open up the workshop
for the space needs so that
when we have a few minutes to
the meeting up, sure. Thank
you. It’s not an imminent.
>> And we have to wait to